NATIONAL WEATHER ASSOCIATION

NEWSLETTER

No. 99-11 November 1999

 

PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE

Working Together to Advance Weather Forecasting as an Applied Science

As many of you are probably aware, this past summer there was a debate within Congress concerning House Resolution 1553 which included a paragraph on the duties of the National Weather Service (NWS), amending the Organic Act of 1890. It also included a subparagraph on competition with the private sector, which would have prohibited the NWS from providing services, which could otherwise be provided by a commercial enterprise. Many people within the NWS, UCAR, NWA and other groups opposed this portion of the resolution, since all possible repercussions had not been fully considered. The Organic Act was not amended this year, but no doubt debate on public and private sector responsibilities and competition will continue. I will not use this column to get into this debate, as I believe I could not do it justice in this short space. It needs to be discussed, however, by the whole meteorological community in an open forum.

Instead, I want to explore what we need to do today to produce the meteorologists of the future who will work within the private and/or public sectors. What skills will meteorologists in the next millennium need to do research, and effectively use the science and new technologies to make accurate and timely forecasts on many time and map scales that inform and protect the public? Are the skills needed within the government sector really different than those needed within the private sector?

I would submit that students looking forward to a successful career in meteorology need more expansive skills than those required just a generation ago. Students today need to broaden their educational portfolio to include not only meteorological expertise, but also communication skills, computer science, and to some extent business and marketing skills. Now and increasingly in the future, forecasters will rarely analyze maps on paper (perhaps they should) but need to be computer savvy to call up data, imagery, graphics and numerical model output, run "what if" scenarios with interactive skew-T log P diagrams, and glean insights from animated satellite and radar imagery, while computing a host of derived products from a number of numerical models! This puts their visual acuity, computer science and meteorological interpretative skills to the test. In addition, forecast products are becoming more sophisticated as they include more mesoscale details in watches and warnings. New technologies (e.g., WSR-88D and GOES-NEXT satellites) have expanded our capabilities at the same time that the public demands more accountability for the investment of their tax dollars. Therefore, it is imperative that today’s meteorologist communicates effectively with his/her customer; this is especially true in the competitive private sector. In the same vein, those thinking about a career in the private sector should take some basic courses to better understand how private enterprise works and how to market their product to potential customers who need to be persuaded to spend money for weather information.

I would take issue with those in the private sector who believe that too much of today’s typical university curriculum requires higher level math and physics courses. Today it is even more imperative that students grasp the physical and mathematical complexities of the atmosphere. How can they possibly interpret a numerical model prediction or compute a derived field with GEMPAK or AWIPS without knowing the mathematical framework of the calculation? Today’s meteorologist needs to understand concepts such as frontogenesis, jet streak transverse circulations, conditional symmetric instability, storm-relative helicity, numerical model initialization and parameterization, etc., to make a forecast. They need to assimilate the incredible amount of data coming at them in a coherent, sensible framework. The logic and physical underpinnings of a forecast require a strong mathematical and physics background — in the private sector as well as in the NWS.

Finally, I would suggest that government and university meteorologists develop a more open dialogue with meteorologists within the private sector to promote a better understanding of what they do best versus what the NWS does best. The private sector does a great job at preparing fine-detailed forecasts for specific customers. The NWS excels at gathering data, developing and running numerical models, and preparing watches and warnings for severe convective and winter weather, while offering general forecasts for the public. These two groups within our community must work hand-in-hand to create a working partnership for the public good. Mutual respect and understanding will help to avoid the need for government regulation of our work.

- Jim Moore

 

MEMBER NEWS

Jack Church, chief meteorologist at KERO-TV (ABC) in Bakersfield, CA was recently honored with the Golden Mike Award for best weather broadcast in Southern California and Nevada for 1999. Church also won the award in 1997 while working for KCOY-TV (CBS) in Santa Maria. Church has been a National Weather Association seal holder since 1984 and presently serves on the NWA broadcast meteorology committee.

EPA RELEASES NEW HANDBOOK ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE MAPPING AND MONITORING

Ground-level ozone, a major component of smog, is an air pollutant that can cause several types of short-term health effects in the lungs. [Ground-level ozone is distinct from ozone in the upper atmosphere, which protects the earth from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays.] The U.S. EPA has developed a handbook to help state and local government officials bring time-relevant information about ground-level ozone to people in their states and communities. The handbook, called Ozone Monitoring, Mapping, and Public Outreach: Delivering Real-Time Ozone Information to Your Community, provides step-by-step instructions on how to:

  • Design and manage a monitoring network that measures concentrations of ground-level ozone.

  • Operate a system to retrieve, manage, and distribute real-time ozone data.

  • Use these data to create ozone maps that use color-coded contours to depict the level of health concern associated with different categories of ozone concentration.

  • Develop a plan to communicate information about ozone levels and their health effects.

This handbook was developed by EPA’s EMPACT program. The program takes advantage of new technologies that make it possible to provide environmental information to the public in near real time. EMPACT is working with the 86 largest metropolitan areas of the country to help communities in these areas:

  • Collect, manage, and distribute time-relevant environmental information.

  • Provide their residents with easy-to-understand information they can use in making informed, day-to-day decisions.

Both print and CD-ROM versions of the handbook are available for direct on-line ordering from EPA’s Office of Research and Development Technology Transfer website at http://www.epa.gov/ttbnrmrl/. The handbook can be downloaded from EPA’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards AirNow website at http://www.epa.gov/airnow/. You can also obtain a copy of the handbook by contacting the EMPACT program office at: EMPACT Program, U.S. EPA (8722R), 401 M. Street S.W., Washington, D.C. 20460; Phone: (202) 564-6791.

 

THE NEW "TRAINING CORNER"

This second installment of the "training corner" takes a look at the web-based Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) training initiative. Eli Jacks in the NWS Hqs Office of Meteorology relates that in early 1999, The National Weather Service (NWS), in cooperation with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), began development of web-based training on NWP. The first two sections of the training concentrate on understanding how a numerical model works, and the current characteristics of NWP models used by the NWS. These will be completed by fall of 2000. Subsections on numerical calculations in NWP models are available now for viewing (http://meted.comet.ucar.edu/nwp/index.htm).

Sections three and four (Assessing Model Initialization in the Forecast Process and Using Numerical Guidance in the Forecast Process) will be developed starting in the latter half of 2000. The training is broken down into small enough subsections to be covered in half-hour to hour long 'sound bites', to accommodate the needs of forecast offices in the NWS and the military.

Everyone is encouraged to check out this excellent training opportunity. Go to the above URL, or reach it via the NWA Home Page (www.nwas.org) by clicking on "NWA Committees", then "Training Committee".

- Gail Hartfield, NWA Training Committee Chairperson

 

LETTER TO THE NWA PRESIDENT

Dear Dr. Moore,

I read your president's message in the August Newsletter with great interest. I think that educating the public about weather is very important.

I have been recording the area's weather for almost 38 years; 15 of them as a NWS Coop Observer. I have written over 400 articles for the local newspaper over the past 25 years and I also call in daily weather data to four TV stations. I have given talks at schools, historical societies and other civic groups as well as given tours of my weather station to various groups. This past summer, the NWS nominated me for the John Companius Holm Award. I have another weather program to put on next week for four classes at a school camp and another next month for an eighth grade science class.

It is a pleasure to participate in these training/education programs and I will continue to do so. I thought I would just let you know that this NWA member is trying to do his part in keeping the public informed. Thank you.

- Steve Gottschalk, Lowden, Iowa

This letter reminds us of the many contributions weather observers (certified and amateur) make daily to provide significant ground-truth data, educate and train in the local community, and set great examples for future weather enthusiasts, observers and meteorologists. Special thanks to weather observers for all you do!

- Jim Moore

 

VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY STUDENT WINS METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE APPLICATIONS AWARD

Augustine (Stino) Iacopelli, a student in the Department of Geography and Meteorology at Valparaiso University in Valparaiso, Indiana has won the first NWA Meteorological Satellite Applications Award. NWA President, Dr. Jim Moore, presented a plaque and a check for $500 to Stino at the Annual Awards Banquet in Biloxi, MS on 20 October 1999. While a junior in the spring of 1999, Stino authored an outstanding undergraduate paper entitled, "Mesoscale Dynamics of the Record Breaking 10 November 1998 Mid-Latitude Cyclone: A Satellite-Based Case Study." He presented the paper to the NWA Annual Meeting attendees earlier in the day.

Mr. Iacopelli's research advisor, Dr. John Knox, an Assistant Professor of Meteorology at Valparaiso, indicated that this work clearly illustrates the value and use of satellite remote sensing data in weather analysis and forecasting and thus was very appropriate for consideration for this award. He emphasized that Stino performed this case study focusing on mesoscale cyclone dynamics as a junior, not yet having taken the senior-level synoptic and mesoscale courses at Valparaiso. Dr. Knox was also thoroughly impressed by Stino's ambition and determination to stretch beyond his coursework. Stino also drafted several figures in his paper, learning geographic information systems techniques along the way.

The NWA Meteorological Satellite Applications Award was established to stimulate interest and foster the study and use of satellite remote sensing data in weather analysis and forecasting. Undergraduate students are invited to write an original paper on meteorological satellite applications. Themes of the papers may include original research, case studies, or a survey of applications.

NWA RESEARCH ACHIEVEMENT AWARD RENAMED AFTER DR. T. THEODORE FUJITA

At the NWA Council business meeting on the evening of 19 October 1999, officers and councilors unanimously approved renaming the annual research achievement award to honor Dr. Ted Fujita. He joined the National Weather Association in its early years and was the 2nd recipient of the Annual Research Achievement Award. In 1978, Dr. Fujita was presented the award for his research work in defining the "downburst" and "microburst" and applying its relationship to aircraft accidents, and for his work in radar and satellite meteorology and in characterizing tornadoes and hurricanes by area and intensity — significantly contributing to operational meteorology. Dr. Fujita died on 19 November 1998 after a more than 44-year career at the University of Chicago revolutionizing the meteorological community's understanding of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. In all his meticulous research he continually insured that his findings contributed directly to operational meteorology and is, therefore, worthy of this recognition by the NWA.

 

NEW NOAA SPACE WEATHER SCALE DEVELOPED TO BETTER CHARACTERIZE SEVERITY & IMPACT OF SOLAR STORMS

As the sun revs up for Solar Max, a time of intense solar activity, we can look forward to increasingly turbulent space weather. On 9 November 1999, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) introduced the first-ever scales designed to characterize the severity and impact of upcoming solar storms on public safety and services. "NOAA's new scales are the Richter scales of space weather. For the first time, we can predict the impact of solar storms, and these storms may be a real Y2K problem," said Dr. D. James Baker, under secretary for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "When Solar Maximum occurs, the sun bursts at its seams with explosive power, and as it churns there is potential for electrical power outages, radio problems, and the disabling of satellites. This can disrupt communications, including broadcast transmissions and pagers," Baker said. As the period during the 11-year solar cycle when the sun is most active, Solar Maximum brings an increase in the number and intensity of solar storms and their effects. Space storms, radiation showers, aurora borealis, and affects on power grids and Global Positioning System navigation and other systems are all expected during the upcoming Solar Max period, which is expected to last about three years. Already there is an increase in solar activity as the world approaches another Solar Maximum. As we get farther into Solar Cycle 23, expectations are that the sun will continue to rev up. Each time there is a solar event, NOAA's National Weather Service includes information on the event in its transmission of weather data. Working like the Richter scale for earthquakes, NOAA's new space weather scales describe the intensity and frequency of three kinds of solar events: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms and radio blackouts. "The scales are a giant step forward in informing the public about the severity of these events and their expected consequences," said Dr. Ernie Hildner, director of NOAA's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado. Hildner said that physical measurements on the scales will help the scientific and operations communities consistently identify the intensity of solar events. Solar storms can vary, with some equivalent to a thunderstorm on Earth, while others may be more severe, with intensity similar to a hurricane or tornado. Satellite expert David Desrocher, a senior engineer at The Aerospace Corporation in Colorado Springs, Colorado, said that, "NOAA's new space weather scales will significantly aid the space industry in anticipating events, understanding effects, and developing more robust satellite designs and mitigation strategies." John Kappenman, a senior engineer at Metatech in Duluth, Minn., explained that space storms can impact the operational reliability of electrical transmission systems world-wide. "The previous solar cycle demonstrated just how seriously the power industry needs to consider the potential impacts of geomagnetic storms," Kappenman said. One of the strongest impacts occurred during the last solar cycle in 1989, when the entire Province of Quebec went dark because a geomagnetic storm caused power lines to overload. NOAA's Space Environment Center in Boulder is responsible for issuing warnings, watches and forecasts of the space environment and potential impacts on Earth. The Center continuously monitors the solar environment with a complex array of ground-based observations and satellites operated by NOAA and its national and international partners. For more information on the Space Environment Center, check out the website: www.spaceweather.noaa.gov (NOAA Press Release 11/9/99) [Also see more references on Space Weather on the NWA website http://www.nwas.org/links/nasa.html]

MEETINGS OF INTEREST

• The Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop will be held at the NOAA Western Regional Center campus at Sand Point, Seattle, Washington, 4-5 February 2000. This annual conference, sponsored by the National Weather Service, the University of Washington, and the Puget Sound AMS Chapter, covers recent developments in weather forecasting and observational technologies affecting the West Coast, major weather events of the past year, and other topics dealing with the meteorology of the region. This year submissions were sought relating to short-range forecasting in regions of complex terrain, including: (1) data issues, (2) NWP, (3) observational studies, and (4) approaches to forecast dissemination. The meeting will be structured around these four topic areas. The deadline for abstracts has passed. For further information on registration or presentations, contact Clifford Mass, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Box 351640, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195; (206) 685-0190; cliff@atmos.washington.edu. Or contact Brad Colman/ Chris Hill, NWS Forecast Office, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115; (206) 526-6095 x224/222, chris.hill@noaa.gov.

• 54th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 14-18 February 2000, Houston, Texas. The 54th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC), sponsored by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM), will be held 14-18 February 2000, at the Renaissance Houston Hotel, Houston, Texas. This annual conference provides a forum for the Federal meteorological community to: (a) conduct an internal performance review of the Federal tropical cyclone forecast and warning program, (b) solicit recommendations for future program improvements, and (c) reach out to the user communities, especially the emergency management community. The theme of this year’s conference is Hurricane Forecasting: 20th Century Highlights and Prospects for the Future. A special Monday afternoon session is being planned to commemorate the last 100 years in hurricane forecasting. Tuesday morning will begin with an in-depth review of the 1999 hurricane season followed by a session on the impacts of landfalling hurricanes on the customer/user communities. Subsequent sessions on observations; modeling and prediction; emergency management, public outreach, and communications; and, research and technology will be conducted on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Thursday morning will be devoted to workshops on hurricane program issues, and conference attendees will be invited to actively participate. On Friday morning, the final plenary session will include recaps of Thursday’s workshops and the conference wrap-up. Conference participation is limited to the Federal agencies, research institutions and universities with government-sponsored tropical cyclone research programs, and invited members from the user communities. The reduced attendance is intended to facilitate the exchange of ideas and focus discussions on specific agenda topics. For more information contact the Conference Program Coordinator, Bob Dumont at OFCM, tel: (301) 427-2002; e-mail: Robert.Dumont@noaa.gov

• The 25th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference will be held Friday, 10 March through Sunday, 12 March 2000 at the Holiday Inn in downtown Saratoga Springs, New York. It is sponsored by the Lyndon State College Chapter of the AMS and NWA. Jack Williams, author of the USA Today Weather Book, and Editor for the USA Today weather page will be the banquet speaker. All interested parties are invited to share their research at this conference. Abstracts and poster descriptions are due by Friday, 31 December 1999. The registration deadline is Friday, 18 February 2000. For further information about registration, accommodations, or presentation submissions, please contact: Josh Nichols, President of LSC-AMS/NWA, Lyndon State College, Box 7167, Lyndonville, VT 05851-0919; (802) 626-6535; Fax: (802) 626-9770; e-mail: AMS@apollo.lsc.vsc.edu; Internet: apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/ams/ams.html

• The Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference 2000, sponsored by the Central Iowa NWA Chapter will be held at the University Park Holiday Inn, West Des Moines, Iowa from Friday, 31 March at noon until Sunday, 2 April at noon. Oral presentations will be presented by invited speakers in several fields, including meteorology, emergency management and the media. Special sessions and training workshops will allow conference attendees to enhance their knowledge in a number of areas. All persons wishing to present materials of relevance should send a 200-word abstract to: Central Iowa Chapter-NWA, P.O. Box 7512, Urbandale, IA 50322. E-mail entries will also be accepted at: bryankcci@aol.com. The deadline for abstracts is 21 January 2000, and speakers will be notified by 4 February 2000. For more information, refer to the Central Iowa NWA website: www.iowa-nwa.com

• 22nd Annual National Hurricane Conference, will be held 17-21 April 2000 at the Hyatt Regency, New Orleans, LA. This annual conference will feature workshops covering major aspects of hurricane forecasting, preparedness, response and recovery. Please make hotel arrangements directly with the Hyatt Regency at (504) 561-1234 before 16 May 2000. Register for the conference at a discount rate prior to 1 March 2000 by calling (850) 906-9224 or by visiting the conference website at: www.nettally.com/nhc

• National Symposium on the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999 will be held in the Oklahoma City area, 30 April - 3 May 2000. National Weather Association is a cosponsor. On 3 May 1999, some of the most intense tornadoes ever observed tore through parts of the southern Great Plains, devastating metropolitan areas and nearly destroying entire communities. Despite the ferocity of the storms, the number of deaths was exceedingly low as a result of advanced storm detection and warning technology, effective information dissemination, and rapid response by public safety and emergency officials. The extensive body of information collected during and after the event affords a unique opportunity to study, in a single venue, all components of this significant natural disaster, including: research and operational meteorology, economic and societal impacts, public safety and emergency response, information dissemination by the media, and post-disaster relief and reconstruction. Consequently, the Oklahoma Weather Center, in collaboration with local, state, and federal agencies, is organizing this National Symposium. The Symposium seeks to bring together the natural science, social science, policymaking, public safety, and information dissemination communities as a means for evaluating successes and failures on 3 May, and for stimulating future interaction. The Symposium will be held from 30 April - 3 May 2000 in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area and will be broadcast live on the web. Oral and poster presentations will be supplemented by invited and keynote speakers, along with panel discussions and general-interest sessions. To facilitate research by the national community, the Oklahoma Weather Center has established a website (http://caps.ou.edu/wx/info/3may99) that contains most of the observational data, or links to them, collected during the 3 May event. Persons wishing to present oral or poster presentations on topics directly related to the 3 May event should send a 200 word abstract to Prof. Kelvin Droegemeier, Conference Chairman, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 100 East Boyd, Suite 1310, Norman, Oklahoma, 73019 (kkd@ou.edu; phone 405-325-0453; fax 405-325-7614). Papers are especially encouraged from the social science, public safety, media, and engineering/construction science communities. The deadline for receipt of abstracts is 15 January 2000, and speakers will be notified of the disposition by 1 February 2000. The abstracts will be published on the web and made available at the Symposium.

• The 25th Annual Meeting of the NWA will be held 14-20 October 2000 at the Holiday Inn, 8777 Georgia Avenue, Silver Spring, Maryland. Plan now to attend this 25th Anniversary celebration! More information will be in future newsletters and on the NWA home page: www.nwas.org. The Call for Papers will be publicized in January 2000.

JOB CORNER

Ed: The NWA lists job openings in the regular paper Newsletter copies free from equal opportunity employers for the benefit of members. Submit job openings to the NWA office at anytime.

See http://www.nwas.org/jobs.htmlfor the latest listings.

 

BEST WISHES FOR A HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON and A HEALTHY, HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

From your NWA Council members, Newsletter Editors and Staff.