With the continuing development of faster and more capable computers, mesoscale numerical models with grid spacing of a few kilometers are becoming available. From the hype about these models in the popular press, it would appear that they will soon render nearly perfect forecasts on scales compatible with individual thunderstorm cells. The implicit message in these articles is that the advances in computer technology wedded with advances in the science of meteorology will soon make the human forecaster obsolete. This causing the weather forecast industry of the future to essentially consist of computer programmers, computer operators and a large communications network.

It behooves us as professional forecasters to look into the basic concepts behind these prophecies. B. Gilchrist showed back in 1955 that "at least 5 or 6 grid points per wave length" are necessary to accurately describe a phenomenon. Basic mathematics has not changed since then. A model with 10 km grid spacing cannot properly resolve phenomena smaller than about 50 km. To get to the cloud scale, grids of a few meters will be necessary. Dynamic forecast models that run sufficiently fast on a small enough grid to support real-time operational thunderstorm scale forecasting are still many years in the future.

Another approach would be to use statistical models to create mesoscale forecasts from larger scale model output. MOS forecasts are a commonly used example of this concept. Artificial intelligence, neural networks, and similar technologies are now being applied to operational meteorology. One thing these techniques have in common is that at the structural level, they are geared to forecast "typical" conditions. They do not handle extreme events well. However, it is in these extreme events that applied meteorology is most valuable.

Warning technology is also being automated. Decision systems are available, or being developed that automatically identify and track storms and categorize their intensity. By agreeing to some basic assumptions, the forecaster can have the computer actually create alerts giving the time storms will "hit" specific sites. A review paper by Wilson et al. on decision systems appeared in the October 1998 issue of the Bulletin of the AMS. While this article shows the potential power of the technology, it also elucidates many areas where significant improvement is needed in automated techniques.

The science shows that models can produce relatively general, large-scale forecasts with rather consistent accuracy. AND, if a forecast's information content is simply something like "clear to partly cloudy, highs in the 70's, lows in the 30's, probability of precipitation 30%," largely automated forecasts are on the horizon.

In contrast, if the forecaster is willing to push the limits of predictability, the human will remain critical in weather forecasting. The value of the forecast lies in its information content. Customers need to know what will happen to them (e.g., can they hold their daughter's wedding outside). A good forecast contains information on time and space scales useful to the decision maker. If we are willing to live with the old ways of communicating our products, and to routinely produce forecasts with relatively little specific detail, then the predictions of the obsolescence of the human forecaster will come true. However, if we accept the challenge of this new forecast era and are willing to make the tough calls, using the science and new technologies to their fullest — telling the customer what we really think is going to happen, then the value of the human forecast will always be greater than that of an automated system.

The future of the weather forecasting profession is bright, but only if we as the operational weather professionals continually extend our communal reach to constantly improve our ability to forecast the weather.

- Joe Schaefer

The NWA Council and staff send season’s greetings to all with best wishes for good health, happiness and prosperity.

Invoices for 1999 dues, ballots for the election of officers and approval of bylaw changes, and a survey were mailed to all individual members the first week of December. If you didn’t receive it, please contact the NWA office at (334) 213-0388 or NatWeaAsoc@aol.com. Ballots are due back by 31 December 1998. Sending in the complete package by 31 December will greatly help the annual planning/budget process.

HARRIS CORPORATION, 150 West Wickham Road, P. O. Box 98000, Melbourne, FL 32902; http:// www.harris.com Point of Contact: Barry Dupuis phone: (407) 984-5883; Fax: (407) 984-5770; e-mail: bdupuis@harris.com

MITRETEK SYSTEMS, 7525 Colshire Drive, McLean, VA 22102-7400; http://www.mitretek.org Point of Contact: Harry M. Strong phone: (703) 610-1722; Fax: (703) 610-1767; e-mail: hstrong@mitretek.org

SONALYSTS INC., 215 Parkway North, Waterford, CT 06385; http://www.sonalysts.com Point of Contact: Rip Coleman phone: (860) 442-4355x143; Fax: (860) 442-5696; e-mail: coleman@sonalysts.com

Co-Editors: Larry Burch and Eli Jacks

Publisher: Kevin Lavin, Executive Director

Published monthly by the National Weather Association,

6704 Wolke Court, Montgomery, Alabama 36116-2134.

Tel/FAX: (334) 213-0388

E-mail: NatWeaAsoc@aol.com

Home page: http://www.nwas.org

Submit newsletter items directly to: Editor NWA Newsletter, Eli Jacks, NOAA/NWS W/OM21, 1325 East West Hwy Room 13125, Silver Spring MD 20910; e-mail: Elliott.Jacks@noaa.gov or to: Larry Burch, NOAA/NWSFO, 2242 W. North Temple, Salt Lake City UT 84116; e-mail: Larry.Burch@noaa.gov. Material received by the 5th will be considered for that month’s issue.

Members receive the monthly NWA Newsletter and quarterly National Weather Digest as part of their regular, student or corporate membership privileges. Contact the NWA for membership information. Newsletter subscriptions are available at $18.00 per year plus extra shipping costs outside USA. Single copies are $1.50

Contact the NWA office with address changes.

At the NWA Annual Meeting, the Education Committee Chairperson, Sol Hirsch, announced the recipients of the 1998 Sol Hirsch NWA Education Fund Grants. Grants of $500.00 were awarded to:

Mary Beth Bauer of Ingram Tom Moore High School in Ingram, Texas. The grant will help the Hands-On Meteorology Experience (HOME) Project which needs more weather equipment for high school students to have the opportunity to make/log and analyze meteorological measurements. The equipment will also be used to teach elementary school students about weather instruments.

Angela Marsan of Central Elementary School in Clewiston, Florida. The grant will help purchase weather equipment to be placed in their schoolyard mini-farm habitat for hands-on experiential learning pertinent to their area’s cultural and natural heritage.

Since 1959, the U.S. Air Force and Navy have combined their efforts at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), on Nimitz Hill, Guam to warn U.S. assets and interests in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans of tropical cyclone activity. JTWC began a new era of typhoon forecasting on 2 November 1998 as it began limited operations from the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NPMOC) at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. JTWC will transition into full 24-hour operations in its new location on 1 January 1999.

Although the transition has been on the books for three years, the flow of equipment and personnel began in October and on 2 November, Air Force Capt Don Schiber stood the first JTWC Typhoon Duty Officer (TDO) watch (shift) at NPMOC Pearl Harbor. Currently the watch rotation consists of four watches (Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, and Delta). A second watch begins on 1 December with the remaining watches beginning on 1 January 1999.

The JTWC is aligned as Detachment 1 under the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) Air Operations Squadron on Hickam AFB and will consist of approximately 30 USAF, USN, and DoD civilian personnel.

The suite of JTWC products is located on the Internet embedded on the NPMOC-West (Guam) home page at http://www.npmocw.navy.mil/npmocw/prods/jtwc.html.

As in 1959, the crew of Air Force and Navy personnel face the challenge of making the Joint Typhoon Warning Center an effective and efficient production center for tropical cyclone forecasting in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. Leveraging years of JTWC experience with the fresh ideas of a talented and motivated crew will provide a dynamic environment for developing and improving quality products. This coupled with the integration of innovations and applications of the Naval Research Laboratory, Air Force Weather Agency and University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) products will allow JTWC to lead the weather community of tropical cyclone forecasting into the next millennium.

- USAF Capt Jim Parsons/USN LTJG Stephanie Belcher

I just wanted to congratulate the NWA leadership and Program Committee on another fine annual meeting of the National Weather Association. The program was well organized and the presentations were first-rate.

I don't know how you do it, but you manage to equal or exceed the previous year's meeting every time!

Keep up the good work and again, my heartfelt congratulations to all involved.

- Carolyn Kloth, Aviation Weather Center

The 1998 NWA Annual Awards were presented by President Joseph Schaefer at the 21 October, Annual Awards Banquet during the 23rd NWA Annual Meeting at the WESTIN Hotel in Oklahoma City. Andy Horvitz, the NWA Awards Committee Chairperson, announced each winner and their accomplishments. A summary follows:

Distinction: For his exceptional "high risk" severe weather outlook sent out 18 hours prior to the 8 April 1998 Alabama tornado event, heightening awareness and setting the stage for excellent watches and warnings well in advance of numerous tornadoes including an F5 that traversed a 30-mile long path.

Distinction: For superb public education to the citizens of central Florida in preparation for a more violent tornado season (associated with an El Niño period) and for exceptional weather forecasting and warning services during the most devastating tornado outbreak in Florida history, 22-23 February 1998.

Distinction: For defining, designing and implementing outstanding applied research projects, teaming with several NOAA/NWS offices leading to noteworthy improvements in weather warnings and forecasts and in sharing results with the operational meteorology community.

Distinction: For outstanding public service oriented weather broadcasting, developing effective working partnerships among government and private-sector weather services personnel, emergency managers and broadcasters, improving severe weather warning services, and markedly increasing the public’s weather awareness.

Distinction: While he was in harm’s way being threatened by a tornado, he provided outstanding selfless support to the weather warning system and the citizens of central Florida by giving ground truth information over a hand-held radio during the most damaging tornado outbreak in Florida’s history, 22-23 February 1998.

Distinction: For increasing severe weather awareness throughout Iowa by demonstrating the importance of the NOAA Weather Radio program and through innovative marketing and fund raising techniques making the radios more accessible to the public and as gifts to child care centers and other institutions.

Distinction: For superb outreach efforts in preparing the United States aviation community for the conversion to the international hourly surface observation (METAR) and terminal forecast (TAF) codes.

Distinction: For voluntarily initiating, continually improving and maintaining the NWA Internet Home Page, markedly increasing communications with NWA members and introducing the NWA to many agencies and individuals through the World Wide Web since 1995.

Distinction: For outstanding weather support services to the American public for four decades, a pioneer in operational tropical meteorology, dedicated to improving the knowledge of meteorologists, emergency managers, researchers and the public especially in regard to tropical cyclones. The first recipient of the Larry R. Johnson Award (previously the NWA Special Award).

— THE LARRY R. JOHNSON AWARD

At the NWA Council meeting on 20 October 1998, a discussion ensued on how best to honor Larry Johnson, a founding member of the NWA and its 20th President. Larry died of cancer on 30 July of this year; he was 54. The program of the 23rd NWA Annual Meeting was dedicated to Larry and three other members who had recently died, but a more lasting remembrance was desired. After much discussion, it was unanimously voted on to rename the annual Special Award after Larry. The NWA Special Award which began in 1991 is presented to an individual or a group for recognition of unique events or extraordinary accomplishments which significantly contribute to operational meteorology. Larry was unique and extraordinary and certainly contributed in many ways.

Aviation Weather Forecasting Reaches Milestone Anniversary — December 1, 1998 marks the 80th anniversary of the first government-issued route forecast for aviation. The forecast was issued for the Aerial Mail Service route from New York to Chicago.

Prior to 1 December 1918, the Weather Bureau DID provide information on flying conditions to pilots, however these were generally in response to specific requests and on a case-by-case basis. After the Wright Brothers' historic flights on 17 December 1903, interest in aviation grew slowly but steadily across America. It wasn't until the U.S. entry into the European conflict in April 1917, however, that the need for more formal weather information became a high priority item, especially for the military.

As the number of airmail routes increased, the Weather Bureau expanded the number of route forecasts. This increase in services to aviation marked the beginning of a two-decade long period of rapid expansion of the Weather Bureau, encompassing everything from substantial increases in funding and personnel to significant advances in technology and communications. ALL of these changes were driven by the need to know more about the atmosphere in order to improve the forecasts provided to the aviation community.

The Monthly Weather Review, Vol 46, No 10, stated, "FORECAST SERVICE FOR AVIATORS BEGINS. On December 1, (1918) the aerological data obtained from pilot balloon and kite flights late in the afternoon were telegraphed to the central office of the Weather Bureau from 18 Signal Corps and Weather Bureau aerological stations in the eastern United States. From these data, the first forecast for the New York to Chicago aeroplane mail service was made and telegraphed to Cleveland. The scope of these bulletins for aviators has been outlined by the Chief of the Weather Bureau as follows. It is expected that the bulletins will contain a brief statement of: (1) current conditions along selected routes, this statement to include: (a) the direction and speed of the wind at different altitudes; (b) altitudes of cloud layers, when these are below 4 kilometers; (c) altitudes at which the greatest help will be given by the winds, or the least resistance will be offered by them, in case opposing winds will be encountered at all altitudes; and (2) a forecast of probable changes in conditions during the succeeding 24 hours. MWR Editor."

"Since 1918, the NWS has made quantum leaps in aviation weather forecasting," said NWS Director John J. Kelly, Jr. "Our goal is to continue that progression into and through the next millennium. Pilots of that era would be amazed by the complexity of aircraft today, and they'd certainly be overwhelmed by the amount of weather information we provide every day to the airline industry, private pilots and aviation in general for safe and economic flights." Growing from that fledgling, single forecast for a handful of aircraft in 1918, forecasters at the NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC) in Kansas City directed by David Rodenhuis, NWS Weather Forecast Offices, and Center Weather Service Units working in Federal Aviation Administration Air Route Traffic Control Centers issue thousands of forecasts every day. NWS Offices in Anchorage, Alaska; Honolulu, Hawaii and Guam provide special aviation products for their respective areas. With the improved services, the commercial and general aviation industries are able to save on fuel costs and select routes avoiding hazardous weather.

These workshops came about as a result of input from field representatives which identified the need to provide information and training on the warning process in light of advancing technology and ever expanding scientific understanding. For instance, it was noted that the warning environment in which the WSR-88D was inserted, consisted of multiple sources of information, providing in many cases conflicting guidance. In order to make sound decisions, the forecaster has to decide the value of any input, whether it be from the radar, other remote sensing devices, or from personnel in the field. This can be a significant challenge that can go unmet if the forecaster becomes overloaded with data. The ability to weigh the value of any one piece of information in the whole scheme of the data collected is critical and something a forecaster must judge continually and with little time for deep assessing. While the workshops addressed the meteorological input into the warning decision, they also focused around that fact that warnings are not issued in a vacuum, and that any warning event must occur within the constraints of an operational setting. Thus, any discussion of the warning process had to include a discussion of these non-meteorological factors. Some of these factors included staffing constraints, public perception, and media interactions. A special emphasis on the decision making process, decision making styles, and the use of situational awareness in the decision process were also introduced and discussed at length. [Ed. Special thanks to the members of the OSF, the Storm Prediction Center and the National Severe Storms Lab for continually offering workshops such as these at NWA Annual Meetings.]

Three more WDM workshops will be provided by the OSF in the early Spring of 1999. These "second generation" WDM workshops will continue to address the need to explore and understand the warning decision making process. Additional focus will be placed on the integration of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) into the NWS forecast office setting, and the unique challenges and opportunities offered by this new technology.

- Liz Quoetone, OSF

The Arkansas Chapter of the NWA held a meeting on November 16. Acting President Jerry Reynolds convened the meeting with 12 members in attendance. After routine business matters, Jerry read the tentative schedule and subject matter of meetings for the January - June time period. It is as follows: January: Chapter member Jerry Roberson will present a talk on a mesonet of instruments he has working in his area and a discussion on aerial agricultural application. February: Jerry Reynolds will present a talk on weather lore (folklore). March: Scott Blair and George Hoeltzman will expand on their storm chasing activities. April: Ed Buckner will provide a talk on Channel 11 operations during the March 1, 1997 weather events. If severe weather intervenes, the latest video from "The Tornado Project" will be presented. May: Visiting scientist Ron Holle will present a talk on lightning (possibly a dinner meeting). June: Annual chapter picnic (hopefully held earlier in the month when [hopefully] it is cooler than it was at the 1997 picnic). Specific dates, and places will be published when decided upon in the chapter’s December newsletter. For the remainder of the evening George Wilken provided a presentation on winter weather forecasting, winter weather terminology and a look at long range progs for the winter ahead. Discussion followed. - Newton Skiles, Corresponding Secretary

Northwest Indiana NWA Chapter held their first meeting of 1998-99 year on 28 September. The meeting was called to order by President Jared Guyer. An excellent turn out was recorded with 43 people present. Other Officers were introduced: Vice-President – Dr. Bart Wolf, Treasurer –Sarah VanTol and Corresponding Secretary – Keith J. Suchodolski. Dues were voted unanimously to be $10/person and are due at the third meeting of the year. Upcoming Events – tentatively scheduled speakers: (1)Tim Kiehl and his traveling tornado display, October 19, 1998; (2) Professor Knox speaking on the Edmund Fitzgerald sinking and the storm that caused it, November 9, 1998.

The City of Valparaiso is going to install severe thunderstorm warning sirens and the NWA/VUSIT would like to speak to Valpo officials to see if we can help at all. Members gave presentations on their summer internships: Jessica Irvin at WNDU Channel 16, South Bend, IN; Larry Mowry at WMFD Channel 68, Mansfield, OH; Jeremy Hodges at Channel 5, Green Bay; Gregg Gallina at NOAA/National Severe Storms Lab, CAPS and Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; Crystal Liska at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, College Park, MD; Lisa Clements at Pleasant Hills NWS Office; Joshua West at WKEF Channel 22 Dayton, OH; Jared Guyer at NWS Forecast Office, Indianapolis, IN. (See complete minutes on chapter website via http://www.nwas.org)

- Keith Suchodolski, Corresponding Secretary

• Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop will be held at the NOAA Western Regional Center campus at Sand Point in Seattle, Washington on 26-27 February 1999. This annual conference, sponsored by the National Weather Service, the University of Washington, and the Puget Sound Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, reviews recent developments in weather forecasting and observational technologies affecting the West Coast, major weather events of the past year, and other topics dealing with the meteorology of the region. A major theme of this year's meeting will be the hydrometeorology of western North America including high resolution atmospheric/hydrological modeling, river and streamflow prediction, and studies of major flooding and heavy precipitation events. Abstracts were due 1 December 1998. For further information on registration or presentations, contact Clifford Mass, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Box 351640, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (206-685-0190, cliff@atmos.washington.edu) or Brad Colman/Chris Hill, NWS Forecast Office, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 (206-526-6095 x224 or x222, colman@seawfo.noaa.gov or chris.hill@noaa.gov).

• Third Annual Central Iowa NWA Chapter Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference will be held 26-28 March 1999 at the University Park Holiday Inn, West Des Moines, Iowa. It will begin on Friday, 26 March at 1:30 PM and conclude on Sunday, 28 March at noon. Last year's event attracted 318 meteorologists, weathercasters, storm chasers and emergency management officials from the U.S. and Canada. Presentations related to all aspects of severe weather and operational use of Doppler radar are encouraged. Special emphasis is being placed on the use of Build 10 WSR-88D algorithms and implications for NWS and media forecasters. The program committee is also seeking success stories on the implementation of EMWIN and other cooperative ventures involving the public and private sector. The annual Friday night storm chase video session will also return for 1999. Bring video and photos of your latest chase!

Anyone wishing to make a presentation, please e-mail an abstract or one paragraph description of your proposed talk to: johnmc49@ecity.net or by postal mail to: John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, 888 Ninth Street, Des Moines, IA 50309.

Registration details will be posted on the Internet at http://www.ecity.net/~iowanwa/ You can also link to this website from the NWA home page at http://www.nwas.org

• 21st Annual National Hurricane Conference will be held 29 March - 2 April 1999 at the Omni Rosen Hotel, Orlando, Florida. General session topics will include an overview of the 1999 hurricane season, Bill Gray’s 1999 hurricane season outlook, improvements in hurricane forecasting, mitigation strategies that work and much more. Thirty-six workshops are being planned and exhibits will be available. Reserve your room at the Omni Rosen by calling 1-800-843-6664 by 1 March for the National Hurricane Conference Group Rate. Register to attend the Conference by 15 January to obtain discount rates. For more information call (850) 906-9224 or check the Internet website http://www.nettally.com/nhc