March 1998 Newsletter

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National Weather Association
Newsletter
No. 98-3                                   March 1998

Table of Contents

President's Message
Dates To Remember
The 8th Annual Sky Awareness Week
Call for Papers NWA Annual Meeting
Super Typhoon Paka's Winds Studied -- Mt. Washington's Record Holds
NWA Awards Program -- 1998
NWA Sol Hirsch Education Fund Grants
Local Chapter News
NEWS of Remote Sensing Activities
E-Mail Letters To The Editor
New Education & Training Website
Meetings of Interest
Job Corner
NWA Publications

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PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE

THE FUTURE OF WEATHER FORECASTING IS NOW

Installation of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) at NWS forecast offices has begun. This is the last major piece of technology associated with the modernization of the NWS. With AWIPS, operational forecasters will have significant computer processing power at their finger tips. It will enable them to create integrated meteorological displays, perform in-depth analysis of numerical model data, and interactively create a consistent suite of forecasts, warnings and other products. Similar advanced computer systems are becoming available to other operational meteorologists.

This technology allows us to envision new products and services. However, before committing to new systems, it behooves us to take a retrospective look at how technology has changed both the work place, and the nature of work itself. There have been many studies of the societal impacts of technology. A recent book, Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences, by Edward Tenner, visiting research professor of Geological and Geophysical Sciences at Princeton, details five unanticipated consequences of technological advance:

  1. The Rearranging Effect moves potential problems from one area to another (e.g., while clean rooms are essential for computer operations, their sealed windows makes air conditioning essential even in winter).
  2. The Repeating Effect increases the frequency at which tasks are performed (wind profiler data requires analysis every 20 minutes, this compares to the twice-a-day analysis of rawinsonde wind data).
  3. The Recomplicating Effect occurs when the universal implementation of new technology requires the establishment of intricate control procedures (In many parts of the country, the area code is now required to make a local telephone call, so one must enter ten numbers instead of seven).
  4. The Regenerating Effect results in entirely new types of problems developing as a result of the implementation of the technology itself (the year 2000 issue).
  5. The Recongesting Effect develops when the popularity of the technology overwhelms the system's capability (the radio Spectrum has become so crowded that rawinsondes interfere with other communications).

Reflection shows that this paradigm is applicable to the operational implementation of interactive meteorological computers. While technology can decrease the number of people needed to perform specific tasks, the same technology requires that existing employees expand their areas of expertise, and that entirely new types of employees be hired (a rearranging effect). In the NWS pre-AFOS interactive computer era, forecasters analyzed data and prepared a "draft" of the forecast. This was handed to a "communicator" for final typing and dissemination. After automation entered such as the NWS AFOS, the forecaster aided by the computer not only wrote the forecast, but also prepared the final copy and executed the software to transmit it. In the AWIPS-era, it is anticipated that computer worded forecast capabilities will alleviate much of the typist-type work. But, this is still a generally unproven capability, and a need will remain for the forecaster to act as proofreader and editor.

Also, in the background, there is a whole new infrastructure of people required to maintain the interactive computer's hardware and software. While many forecasters develop the skills necessary to fix and maintain the system themselves, such tasks take away time that should be devoted to either forecasting or developing their meteorological skills.

Technology has markedly increased the amount of data available to the forecaster. Satellite data, radar data, aircraft data, surface data, etc. are all available on time and space scales never before possible. Data no longer "trickles" into a forecast office, it arrives via a firehose.

Numerical model data now comes in grid point format from models that are run as frequently as once an hour. Since a model simply shows one way the weather pattern can develop, the meteorologist must evaluate the relative merit of each of the computer generated solutions.

The modernistic data collection, communications and processing capabilities have increased the meteorological analysis, diagnosis and reasoning a forecaster is required to perform (a repeating effect). Forecasters have to understand why the current weather is occurring before they can make a forecast. The improved spatial and temporal resolution of the observations make diagnosis much more difficult as phenomena that were previously "lost in the noise" have to be considered. The increased precision of observations also complicates the forecast content as it will become necessary to predict the weather with the same general precision that it is observed. The AWIPS computer worded forecast algorithms will use one master database to create the entire suite of forecast products. This will allow for a chaos-like effect where minor inconsistencies are magnified as the automated forecast software proceeds to more specialized products in the forecast suite. A slight inconsistency between the temperature and dew point fields could go unnoticed in a public product, but would have dire effects on an aviation product. While the improved capabilities open exciting new avenues to the operational forecaster, they also increase the challenges that must be overcome (recomplicating effects).

The demonstrated success of operational meteorology is leading to demands for enhanced levels of service. The El Niño forecasts issued last fall has brought a demand for enhanced seasonal forecasts. As customers learn what modern meteorology can provide them, they are no longer satisfied with yesterday's level of service (a recongesting effect). While it is great to have an increased demand for our products, satisfying it will translate into an increased workload for forecasters which is likely to absorb any increase in productivity brought about by interactive processing systems.

Because of the technological advances, this is an exciting time to be a meteorologist. We are able to provide more timely and accurate weather services than ever before. We have a potential to directly impact people not only on life and property issues, but also economic ones. However, history indicates that such technology advances do not necessarily correlate with productivity increases. For instance, economists estimate that the contribution of computers and associated technology accounted for no more than 0.2% of the real growth in business output between 1987 and 1993. We must consider this when we design the weather services that will take the country into the next century.

- Joe Schaefer

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DATES TO REMEMBER

19-25 April - Sky Awareness Week [Earth Day - 22 Apr] see details on page 2.

1 July - Abstracts due for the 17-23 October 1998 NWA Annual Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK. See Call for Papers on page 3.

1 July - Nominations due for the NWA Annual Awards and Sol Hirsch NWA Education Fund Grants. See Award details on page 4.

Please see Meetings of Interest on page 7.

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NWA Newsletter (ISSN 0271-1044)
Co-Editors: Larry Burch and Eli Jacks
Publisher: Kevin Lavin, Executive Director
Published monthly by the National Weather Association,
6704 Wolke Court, Montgomery, Alabama 36116-2134.
Tel/FAX: (334) 213-0388
E-mail: NatWeaAsoc@aol.com
Home page: http://www.nwas.org
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Submit newsletter items directly to: Editor NWA Newsletter, Eli Jacks, NOAA/NWS W/OM21, 1325 East West Hwy Room 13125, Silver Spring MD 20910; e-mail: Elliott.Jacks@noaa.gov or to: Larry Burch, NOAA/NWSFO, 2242 W. North Temple, Salt Lake City UT 84116; e-mail: Larry.Burch@noaa.gov. Material received by the 5th will be considered for that month's issue.

Members receive the monthly NWA Newsletter and quarterly National Weather Digest as part of their regular, student or corporate membership privileges. Contact the NWA for membership information. Newsletter subscriptions are available at $18.00 per year plus extra shipping costs outside USA. Single copies are $1.50.

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The 8th Annual Sky Awareness Week

Celebration will be held 19-25 April 1998. It's theme is THE SKY- Where Meteorology and Astronomy Meet. Since 1991, more than 40 states and the District of Columbia have issued proclamations in support of this growing celebration. The National Weather Service, The National Weather Association, The National Science Teachers Association and The Weather Channel are among the many organizations that have supported this effort! For the 1998 event, Polaroid Corporation, Automated Weather Source, and the National Science Foundation have become collaborators. 1998 will provide opportunities galore for teachers, students, parents, home schoolers, senior citizen centers, nature center staff, meteorologists and others to look toward the sky. In doing so, they can:

  • learn how to read the sky (first by learning cloud types and their associated sensible weather, and then by forecasting from them) understand sky processes (water cycle, sky color, rainbows).
  • appreciate the sky's natural beauty.
  • protect the sky as a natural resource (only one we have).

Sky Awareness Week (SAW) 1998 also falls during the same time of year as National Science and Technology Week, National Mathematics Awareness Week, and Earth Day (April 22nd) and Astronomy Day. More information is on the Internet through the NWA home page http://www.nwas.org and through HOW THE WEATHERWORKS at http://www.weatherworks.com.

NWA members should encourage people especially students to notice the myriad of cloud types, ranging from fair weather cumulus puffs to high-flying cirrus streamers. Even subtle changes in the blue color of the sky are often tied to the movement of weather systems and accumulations and transport of atmospheric pollutants. There is much to observe, learn and appreciate by LOOKING UP at the sky!

Mike Mogil

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Call for Papers NWA Annual Meeting

The National Weather Association's twenty-third Annual Meeting will be held 17-23 October 1998 at the Westin Oklahoma City (previously named the OKC Medallion).

The Program Committee welcomes papers on a wide variety of topics including: weather analysis and forecasting, severe convective storms, hydrometeorology, radar and satellite applications, winter weather forecasting techniques, fire weather, training and education, technological advances, and operational support groups.

The meeting agenda will consist of both oral and poster presentations, training workshops, panel discussions, and exhibits. Special sessions and workshops for weathercasters will be conducted on 17-18 October 1998. Tours of the weather facilities in Norman are also planned.

Individuals who would like to give a presentation or workshop must submit a one page abstract by 1 July 1998 to the Program Chairman Mike Vescio at:

Storm Prediction Center
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069
Phone: (405)-579-0707
Fax: (405)-579-0700
e-mail: Michael.D.Vescio@noaa.gov

Submissions by e-mail are strongly encouraged. Please indicate a preference for an oral or poster presentation and include a list of audio-visual requirements. Do not expect to have equipment that is not requested. If you choose to use regular mail, please include the abstract on a floppy disk and presentation requirements in a cover letter. Notification of abstract acceptance will be mailed by 15 August 1998.

To assist with the Weathercaster Workshop program, for 17-18 October, please contact: John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines IA, (515) 247-888; e-mail: johnmc49@ecity.net

For information on exhibits, contact the NWA office Tel/FAX: (334) 213-0388; NatWeaAsoc@aol.com

A block of rooms has been reserved at the WESTIN Oklahoma City Hotel, One North Broadway, Oklahoma City OK 73102. NWA attendee rates for a single or double room are $65 per day [all meeting attendees will be allowed this government rate]. If more than 2 individuals in a room, add $10 for each additional person. The Hotel is 10 miles north of the Will Rogers World Airport; an all-hotel shuttle is available for $10 one-way. Call in reservations to 1-800-WESTIN-1 by 17 September 1998 and mention you will be attending the National Weather Association Annual Meeting (Group Meeting).

The 50th Anniversary of the first tornado forecast is on 25 March 1998. Presentations on the history and future of tornado forecasting will be most welcome.

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SUPER TYPHOON PAKA'S WINDS STUDIED -- MT. WASHINGTON'S RECORD HOLDS

( Ed. Reference the article on Super Typhoon Paka in the December 1997 NWA Newsletter.) A multi-agency assessment team has concluded that a potential world record measured wind gust reported from Guam during the passage of Super Typhoon Paka is not a reliable report.

As Super Typhoon Paka ravaged the island of Guam on 16 December 1997, Anderson AFB, located on the northeast point of the island, reported a peak wind gust of 236 mph (205 kt). If valid, this report would have exceeded the then current world record of 231 mph for a measured wind speed recorded at Mt. Washington, New Hampshire in April 1934.

Following the passage of the typhoon, multi-agency assessment teams, comprised of NOAA personnel from the Tropical Prediction Center, Operational Support Facility, and Pacific Region Headquarters, FEMA staff, and University researchers, visited the island to assess the data collected and warnings issued during the typhoon, and to also assess the damage incurred. Their findings, after reviewing the wind record at the site, the Guam WSR-88D radar data, a site survey and ground and aerial damage assessments, concluded that the peak gust report was unreliable. Through the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services, the U.S. Air Force evaluated the performance of the reporting anemometer and the Air Force concluded that the combination of high winds and heavy rain on the special "hot-wire" anemometer produced an unrealistically high wind speed. In addition, in their post-storm evaluation, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, located on Guam, reached a similar conclusion on the validity of the initial wind gust reported. Based on the multi-agency assessments, The National Climate Extremes Committee has determined that the reported wind gust from Super Typhoon Paka was not accurate and cannot be accepted as a world record wind speed.

Winds higher than the current world record of 231 mph have undoubtedly occurred during passage of the most extreme tropical systems and especially in tornadoes. However, reporting instrumentation have not survived to provide a documented record of these extremes.

This summary of the team and agency findings was issued by the National Climate Extremes Committee, (NCEC) established in 1997, and comprised of representatives from NOAA's NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center, NOAA's National Weather Service, and the American Association of State Climatologists. The Committee's role is to serve as coordinator and final arbiter concerning national extremes of climatological data.

- Andy Horvitz, an NCEC member

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NWA AWARDS PROGRAM -- 1998

The National Weather Association began its award program in 1977 to provide deserved recognition to those individuals involved in operational activities. The Awards Program recognizes the professional as well as the volunteer. The emphasis is on the people who excel in performing the day-to-day jobs of providing meteorological information and support services to the public.

AWARD CATEGORIES:

Operational Achievement Individual Award: The award is presented to an NWA member who has made a significant contribution to operational meteorology (e.g., an accurate/timely forecast for one or more significant weather events.)

Operational Achievement Group Award: The award is presented to a group of two or more individuals for a significant contribution to operational meteorology. At a minimum, a majority of the group (greater than 50%) must be NWA members.

Member of the Year Award: This award is presented to an NWA member who has made significant contributions to the organization over a period of time.

Research Achievement Award: This award is presented to an NWA member whose research has made a significant contribution to operational meteorology.

Walter J. Bennett Public Service Award: This award is presented to an individual or organization directly assisting the meteorological community in providing weather-related information to the public. Individuals and organizations in the meteorological profession are ineligible for this award.

Public Education Award: This award is presented to an individual or organization providing significant contributions to increase the public's weather awareness.

Broadcaster of the Year: This award is presented to an NWA member Radio or Television weathercaster, or other member of the media, whose activities have significantly contributed to the development and presentation of weather information to the public service.

Aviation Meteorology Award: This award is presented to an individual or group to recognize significant contributions to aviation meteorology, such as impact of operational forecasts on aviation operations, and advances in aviation meteorology including research in detection and forecasting of aviation hazards.

Local Chapter Award: This award is presented to a Local Chapter of the NWA whose activities have significantly increased awareness of the weather and of the NWA and its objectives in their local area.

Special Award: This award is presented to an individual or a group to recognize unique events or extraordinary accomplishments which significantly contributed to operational meteorology.

Narrative nominations (no more than 2 pages) with additional comments or endorsements should be forwarded by 1 July 1998, to:

NWA AWARDS COMMITTEE
ANDREW HORVITZ, CHAIRPERSON
6704 WOLKE COURT
MONTGOMERY AL 36116-2134

Although there is no rigid time requirement for the awards, the Committee prefers that the accomplishment, if not on a continuing basis, occur within 18 months prior to the nominations.

Presentation of the Awards will be made at the NWA Annual Meeting banquet, 21 October 1998, at the WESTIN Hotel in Oklahoma City, OK. - Andy Horvitz

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NWA SOL HIRSCH EDUCATION FUND GRANTS

The NWA Education Committee needs help from all members to spread the word to teachers in grades K-12 that $500 grants are available annually from the NWA to help improve the education of their students in meteorology. The teachers selected will be able to use the funds to take an accredited course in atmospheric sciences, attend a relevant workshop or conference, or purchase scientific materials or equipment for the classroom. Three grants or more are possible in 1998 thanks to the many members who have contributed to this fund in honor of Sol Hirsch who retired in 1992 after being the NWA Executive Director for 11 years. Applications can be obtained from the NWA Education Committee, 3809 Clarks Lane Suite 007, Baltimore MD 21215 or from the NWA office. Completed applications are due to the Education Committee by 1 August 1998.

- Sol Hirsch, Education Committee Chair

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LOCAL CHAPTER NEWS

The Northwest Indiana (Nu) Chapter of the NWA has begun its second season. This year's officers are Dr. Bart Wolf, President; Josh Bemus, Vice President; Ed Roberts, Secretary/Treasurer; and Jared Guyer, Corresponding Secretary. In November, Cincinnati WXIX-TV's Rich Apuzzo was the invited speaker. Rich, a former VU graduate and NWA sealholder, discussed his duties as a TV Broadcast Meteorologist. He also presented amazing video footage of the Jarrell, Texas 1997 tornado outbreak.

On 2 February, the chapter held an evening meeting with 31 members and guests in attendance. President Bart Wolf welcomed everyone and called the meeting to order. After a brief treasurer's report by Ed Roberts, the featured speaker, chapter president, Dr. Wolf spoke on the 19 April 1996 tornado outbreak that affected much of the upper Midwest. He presented detailed information through overheads and slides on the synoptic and mesoscale aspects of that day.

In the next couple of months, the chapter plans to host several speakers, including prospective candidates for VU's position of Assistant Professor of Meteorology. The chapter, in conjunction with V.U.S.I.T., will also sponsor a trip to the Fermi Lab Severe Weather Conference in April.

- Jared Guyer, Corresponding Secretary

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NEWS of Remote Sensing Activities

1 April - Anniversary of TIROS I launch (1 April 1960).

TRMM Satellite Launched - NASDA launched the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, a joint NASA and NASDA venture 28 November 1997. Instruments include a passive microwave radiometer, a precipitation radar, and a visible/infrared scanner. This satellite is in an approximate 35 degree orbit with an orbital period of 93 minutes. TRMM quickly met one of the program's goals to acquire data over a tropical storm just days after launch. Specially instrumented sites in Texas and Florida will participate in the TRMM validation campaign beginning in April. Further information can be viewed at http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov.

After 14 years, NOAA 9 is Retired - NOAA 9 launched 24 December 1984 was retired in mid February after a record 14 years of service. Collection of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data for ozone monitoring was the primary mission for NOAA 9 for the past few years. NOAA 12 (morning) and NOAA 14 (afternoon) are the current operational polar-orbiters

GOES 10 Special Science Testing - GOES 10, launched in April 1997, developed a solar array anomaly making it inoperable in the forward direction. In July 1997, the satellite was flipped or inverted and the solar array has run nominally in the reverse direction ever since. Ground processing software was modified to handle the inverted data and reprocess it into nominal images for distribution. A special GOES 10 Science Test began 16 March and will continue through 12 April 1998. Five-minute imagery over the continental U.S. is being taken throughout this period and is being distributed via homepage sites and to participating NWS offices through the AWIPS system. System testing will continue into late spring and then GOES 10 will return to on-orbit storage.

India and U.S. To Share Satellite Data - In mid-December the U.S. and India signed an agreement to exchange satellite data. Requisite telecommunications systems are expected to be installed by September 1998 to allow the flow of INSAT data and products such as cloud motion vector winds to the U.S. In exchange, Indian scientists will have access to data from the U.S., particularly microwave data from the DMSP satellites. This agreement is the result of many years of negotiation to obtain data over the Asian sub-continent and Indian Ocean, an area that was on the far edge of coverage from the European Meteosat and the Japanese GMS.

NOAA K Launch in May 1998 - NOAA K has been shipped to California in preparation for launch on 13 May 1998. New instruments on this satellite are the Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU A and B) that will provide all-weather temperature and moisture soundings as well as information on snow, ice cover, and precipitation. AMSU- A has 15 channels from 23.0 to 90.0 GHz with a resolution of 40 km; AMSU-B contains 5 channels from 90.0 to 183.0 GHz with a 15 km ground resolution. NOAA K will also have a 6 channel AVHRR, a 20 channel HIRS, and a 12 channel SBUV.

RAMSDIS Online - Looking for animated geostationary satellite data? Check out RAMSDIS Online at http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/main.php. Visible, water vapor and infrared loops (GIF frames) are available from an easy to use menu system. Netscape 3.0+ or Internet Explorer 4.0+ software is needed and each image is about 200kb.

Trans-Pacific Profiler Network (TPPN) - The TPPN is a network of Doppler radar wind profilers located on six remote islands in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The instruments measure horizontal and vertical winds from the surface to 5-15 km (depending on the site's instrumentation), atmospheric turbulence (clear air), and precipitation. This network is operated by NOAA's Aeronomy Laboratory in collaboration with the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). Profiler locations and real-time information may be accessed at http://www.al.noaa.gov/WWWHD/pubdocs/ElNino.php.

- Frances Holt, Committee Chairperson

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The Weather Analysis and Forecasting Committee is sponsoring a website that will display interesting and unusual WSR-88D images/text. This website will not be limited to convective images. Submissions covering winter weather, heavy rain, unusual wind patterns, bird/bug patterns, etc., are requested The submissions should consist of up to 5 graphics and accompanying text. Out of the 5 graphics, up to 3 may be radar images. The radar images should be annotated with text, range rings, arrows, etc., so that those viewing the images can easily discern what the focus of each image is. The other images (e.g., satellite, model, or surface data) must be directly related to the radar images. Associated text material is restricted to 300 words; references will not be included in the 300-word count. All images and text must be closely related to the same event. The best submission from each month will be highlighted in the NWA newsletter to entice members to visit the WAF Website linked from NWA's http://www.nwas.org.

We also welcome submissions of unexplained signatures or events that have enough supplemental information so that someone in the field might provide the committee and the person who submitted the images a reasonable explanation.

The submissions can be made in the following ways:

  1. FTP of figures and e-mail of text
  2. Sending a disk containing the text and figures
  3. (Least preferred) Sending hard copies of the figures with a disk containing the text

Please send regular mail submissions to: Steven Vasiloff, National Weather Service/SSD, 125 S. State St., Rm. 1225, Salt Lake City, UT 84138-1138

FTP the images to...Address: ftpnssl.nssl.noaa.gov; at the prompt, type: anonymous; enter your e-mail address for the password; change directory to /incoming; put your images in the directory, preferably in gif, jpeg, or rs format. Quit the FTP session by typing bye.

Send e-mail submissions to Steve at vasiloff@nssl.noaa.gov. If you plan to make a submission using FTP of images and e-mail of text, you must send an e-mail to Steve Vasiloff containing the exact name(s) of the file(s) you plan to FTP, as well as your IP domain address, prior to making your submission. This is to ensure that you are able to access the FTP server. If you have any questions regarding this project, please e-mail Steve Vasiloff at vasiloff@nssl.noaa.gov or Alan Gerard at Alan.E.Gerard@noaa.gov.

- Alan Gerard, Committee Chairperson

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E-MAIL LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Dear Editor,

How precisely can we establish "average temperature and precipitation" in the U.S.? What should we infer from "record-breaking" two-month averages or any such new records like the record coldest at the South Pole last July? NOAA announced (9 March 1998), "The first two months of 1998 were the warmest and wettest in the 104-year record ... for the contiguous 48 states." (However, the winter months Dec. through Feb ranked second warmest and seventh wettest.) Jan-Feb averaged 37.5 deg F, exceeding the 1990 record of 37.0 deg F and normal of 32.1 deg F, and averaged 6.01 inches precipitation, exceeding the 1979 record of 5.7 inches and normal of 4.05 inches. The press release also quoted a NOAA official as saying "the long term trend of increasing temperatures and precipitation continues" and "record-breaking statistics are generally consistent with both a strong El Niño and climate model projections ... (of) a warmer and wetter world as greenhouse gases continue to increase." As a statement of confidence "consistent" here covers an extremely wide range of uncertainty, but the press release appears to confer the same level of confidence on El Niño and on projections of computer models. Many of us will acknowledge El Niño (actually ENSO) as increasingly well established and described, but must question the allusion to conjectures of catastrophic runaway global warming. Moreover, the data used for the averages announced need some further explanation also.

A half-century ago the USWB chief, Dr. F. W. Reichelderfer, had to point out to a news magazine reporter that the longer we accumulate observational data, the more records will get broken. That's a simple consequence of adding more data so that the bell curve rises at all points with the minima of single occurrences occurring at values farther from the median as the population represented by the curve increases.

With major international and national policy depending upon confirmation of "global warming", it seems important to reexamine the basis for the "averages" quoted as in the press release cited above. Small increments of temperature can break old records, for example, but these can result from changes over time in the sources of the data.

Geographic locations of some stations can (and do) change. The types of instruments change. The immediate surroundings change, as in the case of growing trees providing an evermore effective windbreak. Structures rise, ground cover changes, and paving occurs. Moreover the larger vicinity may develop greatly intensified and expanded infrastructure over time, creating "heat island" effects.

Given such causes of departure from true "benchmark station" status at some stations, we have to ask whether all the stations averaged for the purposes of the NOAA announcement have been screened for exclusion of all which underwent any of the causes of a tainted record incorporating non-weather-caused departures from average.

Do the record-breaking averages owe at least in part to man-made changes having nothing to do with weather or carbon dioxide increase? It would be reassuring to know of a rigorous removal from the averages of all stations not truly "benchmark pure."

Earlier literature cautioned us about the uncertainties in observational data and in reaching statistical significance for climate change. (See for example Karl in BAMS, 1989, p. 265, and in J. Clim, 1994, p. 1144.) Public policy advocacy should not influence us to issue supportive statements that seem to blur those cautions.

Fred W. Decker
OSU, Corvallis, OR
E-mail: deckerf@ucs.orst.edu

Dear Editor,

For 1996 and 1997, Boston (Logan Airport) has reported annual precipitation some 10 to 12 inches below that reported by neighboring stations, a greater difference than previous years. To illustrate (precipitation in inches):

          Boston      Hingham        Difference    Pct. Difference
          (BOS)      (10 mi SSE)       or bias
 1997    30.42        42.46             -12.04          -28%
 1996    52.87        64.22             -11.35          -18%
 1995    35.10        38.99              -3.89          -10%
 1994    47.62        50.59              -2.97          -6%
 1993    44.22        48.25              -4.03          -8%
 1992    43.72        46.27              -2.55          -6%
 1991    42.25        44.36              -2.11          -5%
     

When a similar analysis was made using the cooperative observer station at Reading (12 mi NNW of BOS), the results were quite similar, with the same sudden jump in bias beginning with 1996 data. This discontinuity happens to be about the same time that the ASOS station for BOS was accepted (12/6/95) and concern arose that there might be a problem with the ASOS recording rain gages.

Analyses were then made comparing the data for NWS stations Providence RI, Worcester MA, and Portland ME with neighboring cooperative sites, and similar discontinuities were found (percent biases falling to -21%, -7%, and -13%) beginning about the ASOS acceptance time. However, analyses for Burlington VT and Concord NH showed no significant change.

Explanations are in order, and NWS is invited to comment on these results and indicate the expected performance and monitoring of ASOS rain gages. In the meantime, researchers should use caution in using ASOS rain data until cause and extent of the problem have been determined.

H. Stuart Muench, CCM
Lexington, MA
E-mail: sbmuench@compuserve.com

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NEW EDUCATION & TRAINING WEBSITE

The NWS Training Center (NWSTC) in Kansas City, the Operations Training Branch (OSF/OTB) in Norman, and the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET) Program in Boulder, are pleased to announce the newly established meteorology education and training (Meted) Website: http://meted.ucar.edu

The NWSTC provides federal agencies with job-specific training in the areas of engineering and electronics, hydrometeorology and management. The OSF/OTB provides government meteorologists with training for WSR-88D Doppler radar operations, training and documentation on radar product upgrades, and supports technology transfer of multi-sensor applications to modernized NWS workstations. The COMET Program serves as a resource that fosters the communication and application of scientific knowledge of the atmospheric and related sciences for the operational and educational communities.

This Website will become the principal location for all Web-based materials produced by the three training programs as well as information on their training and education activities. Current Website offerings include modules on mesoscale convective systems, forecasting aviation icing, hydrology for the meteorologist, and remote sensing using the GOES sounder. All three training centers will be making additions to the joint Meted Website in the area of forecasting severe convection and also in other areas such as aviation weather forecasting in the coming months.

- Gregory P. Byrd

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MEETINGS OF INTEREST

The Seventh US/Canada Workshop on Great Lakes Operational Meteorology will be held on 19-21 August, 1998 in Buffalo, New York. The workshop will take place at the State University of New York at Buffalo's Amherst campus and is sponsored by National Weather Service and Environment Canada Weather Offices surrounding the Great Lakes. This year's workshop will be hosted by the NWS office in Buffalo (with assistance from the local Western New York chapter of the AMS). The workshop is a forum to present and exchange new ideas, techniques and approaches related to various weather forecast applications in the Great Lakes Region. These include lake effect precipitation, winter storms, severe convective storms, heavy precipitation/flash flooding, marine and aviation forecasting, mesoscale modelling, climatology and new remote sensing techniques.

Papers on all aspects of Great Lakes weather analysis and forecasting are invited. The deadline for submission of abstracts is 1 June 1998 (NWS forecasters should submit through their respective Regional Scientific Services Division). Abstracts (typed on no more than one page single spaced) should be sent to: National Weather Service, Great Lakes Workshop, 587 Aero Drive, Buffalo, NY 14225. For more information contact Tom Niziol or Steve McLaughlin (716-565-0204; FAX: 716-565-9002; thomas.niziol@noaa.gov, stephen.mclaughlin@noaa.gov ). Workshop information is also available over our web site: http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov.

These April meetings are detailed in the last Newsletter:

CENTRAL IOWA NWA CHAPTER SEVERE STORMS AND DOPPLER RADAR CONFERENCE will be held 3-5 April 1998 in Des Moines IA.

NORTHERN PLAINS CONVECTIVE STORMS WORKSHOP will be held on the campus of Northern State University in Aberdeen SD, 8-9 April 1998.

SECOND ANNUAL OHIO SEVERE WEATHER SYMPOSIUM will be held on Friday, 17 April 1998 at the Ohio State University, Union Conference Theatre.

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JOB CORNER

(Ed: The NWA lists job openings free from equal opportunity employers for the benefit of members. See http://www.nwas.org or call the NWA office at (334) 213-0388 for possible short notice listings.)

The University of Guam, Water and Energy Research Institute of the Western Pacific (WERI) announces the availability of a tenure-track position in the area of meteorology beginning as early as Fall 1998. Primary duties are conducting research in tropical meteorology and climatology and secondary duties include teaching undergraduate and graduate courses in tropical meteorology and satellite interpretation in a highly multi-cultural environment. Minimum qualifications are a Ph.D. in meteorology or climatology and a demonstrated record of research. Research interests should be in the areas of tropical meteorology, tropical climatology, and satellite remote sensing. The applicant should be able to work with a multi-disciplinary team of faculty hydrologists and National Weather Service meteorologists, relating dynamic and synoptic meteorology to rainfall distribution on Guam and other Pacific Islands. A knowledge of typhoon, monsoon, other tropical rainfall mechanisms, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and meteorological satellite interpretation is desirable. Rank and salary depend on qualifications and experience. To ensure full consideration all required application documents must be received no later than April 30, 1998, 5:00 p.m. Complete applications shall include 1) a UOG application form; 2) an up-to-date resume including the names, telephone numbers and e-mail addresses of three references (if available); 3) three letters of reference; 4) publication list; 5) official graduate degree transcripts sent directly from awarding institution; and 6) unofficial copies of all undergraduate degree transcripts. Submit documents to Dr. Shahram Khosrowpanah, Chair, Meteorology Search Committee, University of Guam, c/o Human Resources Office, UOG Station, Mangilao, Guam 96923. The Univ. of Guam is an equal opportunity/affirmative action employer.

GRADUATE ASSISTANTSHIPS AVAILABLE – FALL 1998 ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE GROUP, TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY. The Atmospheric Science Group at Texas Tech University is presently seeking qualified applicants to fill several graduate assistant positions beginning with the 1998 Fall semester. Both teaching and research appointments are available. Students will pursue an M.S. degree in atmospheric science or the Ph.D. in Geosciences and will participate in applied research in one or more of the following areas: (1) Mesoscale meteorology, with emphasis on intense convective systems and regional NWP; (2) Remote sensing including radar and satellite meteorology; (3) Severe storms including thunderstorms, hailstorms, duststorms, and tornadoes; (4) Meteorological aspects of wind engineering and building damage. Stipends for a 1/2-time position during the 9-month academic year range up to $12,000 depending on standing in the graduate program; summer employment, in some cases full-time, is often available at equivalent rates. For further information, please contact: Dr. Chia-Bo Chang, Atmospheric Science Graduate Advisor, Texas Tech University, Box 42101, Lubbock, TX 79409-2101 (Phone: (806) 742-3113; FAX: (806) 742-1738; e-mail: wacbc@ttacs.ttu.edu).

STRATEGIC WEATHER SERVICES (SWS) Opportunities for challenging careers in operational meteorology in Palm Springs, California with one of America's oldest weather forecasting companies, with offices in Palm Springs, California; Valley Forge, Pennsylvania; and Omaha, Nebraska. At least five (5) years of practical experience required in Synoptic Meteorology or Weather Forecasting. Computer knowledge required. One of the new positions will emphasize forecasting for European clients and thus experience in that area will be heavily considered. Office hours in Palm Springs are generally 8 AM to 5 PM, Monday through Friday with no shift work involved. A great work environment and many company benefits. Please fax resume to (760) 325-9678 or call Bill Young at (760) 325-9677; Bill_Young@StrategicWeather.com

ACCU WEATHER, INC., offers career opportunities with the world's leading and most diversified commercial weather service. You will have exciting opportunities to handle all types of weather forecasting for major business, media and government organizations. These include on-air broad-casting for radio stations; creative presentation of weather graphics; preparation of television and newspaper forecasts; snow and ice warning services; worldwide forecasting for agriculture; specialized forecasts for the transportation industry, utilities, businesses and resorts; computer applications; and many others. You will work with some of the nation's leading forecast meteorologists in one of the world's largest forecast centers, interacting with a staff of 300 employees. Our state-of-the-art facility provides our 85 forecast meteorologists with tools and computer technology unavailable elsewhere. Applicants need to be articulate and productive with outstanding forecasting and communication skills. Through progressive advancement, forecasters can become on-air meteorologists in major radio markets, or become involved in computer operations, graphic design, new product development or customer relations. AccuWeather also has positions available on our computer staff for meteorologists with programming experience. AccuWeather offers competitive salaries and an extensive benefits package including health insurance, 401K and profit sharing plans, life insurance and disability income. If you are an enthusiastic, hard working forecaster interested in employment in a dynamic growing company which offers superior opportunity for advancement, send a detailed resume to David H. Dombek, Director of Forecaster Hiring, AccuWeather, Inc., 619 W. College Ave., State College PA 16801; FAX: (814) 231-0621; resume@accuwx.com

WEATHER SERVICES CORPORATION (WSC) is one of the country's oldest and largest commercial operational meteorological services. Since 1948, it has been providing industry, government and the media with accurate, customized, worldwide weather information. The wide variety of WSC clients are located across the US, around the world and throughout cyberspace. A staff of nearly 100 professionals is supervised by AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologists. WSC is located in a new, state-of-the-art, 24-hour per day, Global Operations Center in Lexington, Massachusetts—on Boston's route 128 Technology Highway. The most important resource of WSC is their employees. Each is provided with the finest tools and the opportunity to excel in a stimulating, fast-paced, professional environment. In addition to a competitive compensation and benefits package, WSC employees can participate in the growth and success of the company through a stock ownership plan. Recent and planned growth of WSC presents opportunities for both entry-level and experienced Operational Meteorologists; Graphic Artists with PC experience - multi-lingual capabilities are a plus; Radio Broadcasters; Journalists and Producers; Systems Analysts with C in VMS and UNIX environments; Data and Telecommunications Technicians; Telemarketers; and Sales Account Executives. To apply, please send resume to: Human Resources - N895, Weather Services Corporation, 420 Bedford Street, Lexington MA 02173; FAX: (781) 676-1001; e-mail: hr@wx.com

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NWA PUBLICATIONS AVAILABLE

Monograph 1-86, "Principles and Methods of Extended Period Forecasting in the U.S.," by Robert P. Harnack. Cost: $8.00 for NWA members; $12.00 for nonmembers.

Monograph 2-86 (Reprinted May 1993), "Satellite Imagery Interpretation for Forecasters," 3 volumes compiled and edited by Peter S. Parke. Cost: $38.00 NWA members; $51.00 for nonmembers.

Publication 1-88, "The Cloud Chart 1, 2, 3" by Mike Mogil and Sol Hirsch consists of three 12"x24" charts containing more than three dozen color photos of clouds/ accompanying text. Cost: $7.50 members; $9.50 nonmembers.

Publication 2-88, "Polar Orbiter Satellite Imagery Interpretation," a script/slide training program, written by Vincent J. Oliver and prepared by NESDIS, contains 76 slides with accompanying text. Cost: $70.00 members; $84.00 for nonmembers.

Publication 1-90, "Winds of the World - As Seen in Weather Satellite Imagery," a script/slide training program, written by Vincent J. Oliver and prepared by NESDIS, contains 79 slides with accompanying text. Cost: $70.00 members; $84.00 nonmembers.

Publication 1-91, "Satellite Imagery Indicators of Turbulence," a script/slide training program, written by Gary Ellrod and prepared by NESDIS, contains 71 slides with text. Cost: $70.00 for members; $84.00 for nonmembers.

Monograph 1-93, 2nd Edition 1997, "A Comprehensive Glossary of Weather Terms for Storm Spotters," by Michael L. Branick, NWSFO, Norman OK. A thorough reference in "layman's terms" for standardization of terms used in storm spotting, forecasting and broadcasting. Cost: $6.00 for members; $9.00 for nonmembers.

Publication 1-95, "Imaging Capabilities of the GOES I-M Satellites," a script/slide training program, written by Gary Ellrod and Jim Nelson of NOAA/NESDIS/SAL. Contains 34 slides with accompanying text. Cost: $33.00 members; $40.00 for nonmembers.

The Severe Local Storm Forecasting Primer by John S. Sturtevant, July 1995. A survey of severe local storm structure, detection and forecasting techniques. Published by Weather Scratch Meteorological Services, Florence AL. 197 pp. Special NWA price: $30.00

These prices include book-rate mailing within the USA. Contact NWA for overseas rates. Enclose a check drawn on a U.S. Bank or an international money order payable in U.S. dollars and send order to:

NWA PUBLICATIONS
6704 WOLKE COURT
MONTGOMERY AL 36116-2134