NATIONAL WEATHER ASSOCIATION

NEWSLETTER

No. 99-6 June 1999

PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE

Working Together to Advance Weather Forecasting as an Applied Science

Over the last few months there have been a number of severe weather outbreaks that resulted in considerable loss of life. Most notable was the tragic outbreak of 3 May 1999 in Oklahoma and Kansas. We can be proud of our colleague forecasters at the NWS Storm Prediction Center and the local NWS Forecast Offices in Norman OK, Wichita KS, and no doubt others who tirelessly kept on top of the weather situation to issue timely watches and warnings to numerous counties. Dennis McCarthy of the Norman office added, "Throughout the event, we were very pleased with the efficient operation of this modernized NWS Forecast Office, and we feel that many, many lives were saved by timely NWS watches and warnings, and the live feeds provided through the media." This brought to mind a topic I wish to address here.

Those of us tied to the operational community through the National Weather Service (NWS), military, media, private enterprise, emergency management, government research, and academia need to speak with one voice on the issue of severe weather watches and warnings. In science it is important that we tolerate a professional difference of opinion but it is paramount that this disagreement does not result in ambiguity with respect to the watches and warnings that are issued to the public.

All severe weather watches and warnings issued by the NWS must be carried by the media to the public!

It is perfectly acceptable for forecasters in the media or private corporations to provide some insight as to why the watch or warning is being given and whether the threat seems to be increasing or abating in a particular section of a county area, but the watch/warning must be carried and credited to the NWS. Indeed, I would hope that in our small community there would be a good working relationship with the NWS forecasters with whom we interact. We know that the current state-of-the-art of forecasting severe local storms is still imperfect, and subjective. However, it is totally unacceptable to have a situation where the public goes "shopping" for a watch or warning or gets conflicting signals as to whether the warning is valid. This confuses the public, "clouds" the forecast, and results in a loss of credibility for that forecast and probably many more thereafter. This point is not so important when dealing with maximum and minimum temperatures, but it is critical when warning the public about a life-threatening severe weather situation.

It has come to my attention that there have been occasions when individuals in the media have outrightly dismissed a NWS warning on a severe storm as a poor forecast. This is unacceptable. If instead, they had noted that there was a NWS tornado warning on storm X but that it appeared from the latest data that the threat was diminishing and moving into another county. That type of tailoring would be acceptable. We must avoid hyperbole in a field that is already fraught with skepticism.

When we move into the arena of winter storms and forecasting the number of inches of snow, the situation becomes murkier. I have seen situations where forecasters appear to be upping the ante with respect to snow totals, almost daring their competition to raise them. But I drift.... Although this can be great fun to watch from the sidelines it often acts to weaken credibility in future forecasts of winter weather. I think the only way we can avoid this situation is to be as honest as possible with the public and to give some upper and lower limits of snow amounts with some probability levels or degree of confidence added to the forecast. We know that we have varying degrees of confidence in each forecast we make — some of us show it by our tone of voice or facial expressions. A great challenge for all of us is to tell the public the degree of confidence we have in a particular forecast without either confusing them or making it seem like we are copping out of making a definitive forecast.

In all cases, we need to focus on our primary task, forecasting the weather to protect people, save lives, and to help keep property damage to a minimum. We do our best when we work together to meet these goals.

- Jim Moore

 

DATES TO REMEMBER

1 August - Applications due for the Sol Hirsch NWA Education Fund Grants (pg 4).

1 October - Deadline for reserving a room at discount rates for NWA Annual Meeting in Biloxi MS (pg 7).

5 October - Preregistration deadline for NWA Annual Meeting in mid-October 1999 (pg 7).

 

AWIPS WINS ANOTHER AWARD

On 7 June 1999, the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) Program was selected as the winner among five finalists in the category of Energy, Environment, and Agriculture in the 1999 Computerworld Smithsonian Award Program. This award program was designed to identify "men and women, organizations and institutions that are leading the information technology revolution, and to capture the history of their impact on the world in the written word, photographs, video, and other appropriate media." It was my pleasure to accept this prestigious honor on behalf of the entire AWIPS team. The AWIPS case study is now part of the Smithsonian Institution's Permanent Research Collection. It is on the Internet at http://innovate.si.edu/briefingroom99/

In preparing this case study, I was struck by what a great team effort the AWIPS Program and the overall NWS Modernization Program has been and the very positive results of our efforts. It is fitting that it has received a place in our Nation's history at the Smithsonian. So, whether you are using the system now, providing its operational support, running the operational testing, planning its evolution, or your contributions were made in the past, I ask each of you to reflect for a moment and appreciate your fine efforts. Below is the acceptance speech I gave at the National Building Museum.

"I am pleased to accept this award on behalf of the dedicated and talented team that conceived, developed, implemented and supported AWIPS. The team includes:

• many members of the National Weather Service headquarters for their undaunted determination;

• NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory who brought the creative design solution needed, and then stayed around to make sure it met the tests of NWS strenuous operations;

• our contractor — Litton/PRC who adapted to our unorthodox approach and provided solid engineering support;

• our contracts staff for keeping it all within the bounds of federal regulation;

• all supporting contractors for their tireless efforts;

• the strong NOAA management team including our NWS Director, General Jack Kelly,

• and especially our user community.

I would be remiss not to recognize that AWIPS is the final piece of an overall modernization of the National Weather Service, which resulted in dramatically, improved weather services in this country. This involved deployment of new observing systems, extensive education of the workforce, and the introduction of new scientific models and techniques. The vision of the National Weather Service Modernization was conceived by a few, planned by hundreds, and executed by thousands of individuals. I would like to thank the few who conceived it, for my opportunities to contribute to its success."

- Mary Glackin, NWS AWIPS Program Manager

 

MEMBER NEWS

WELCOME! New corporate member:

EXECUTIVE JET AVIATION, INC., 625 North Hamilton Road, Columbus Ohio, 43219; http://www.NETJETS.com Point of contact: James D. Castle, Chief Meteorologist, phone: (614) 239-2056, Fax: (614) 239-2157.

Keith Brunson, a weather broadcaster with the NWA Seal of Approval is coming back on-air in Austin, Texas after an 8-yr hiatus. He worked at CNN from its inception in 1980, then went on to Charleston, Knoxville, Mobile and Austin where he left the airwaves in 1991 to produce movies and launch a TV/radio Ad agency. The Brunson Agency with clients in 15 cities became the focal point of Keith's career. Last summer, Keith learned of Time Warner Television's plans for Austin to get a 24-hour news/weather channel. Keith secured a part-time weathercaster position and will still maintain his Ad agency. Austin News Eight will employ about 70 people including four broadcast meteorologists. The station will go on-air in August and offer weather every 10 minutes. Jeffrey S. Prier, is moving to Austin News Eight to be the Chief Meteorologist. He also has the NWA Seal of Approval, and leaves NorthWest Cable News in Seattle.

Peter B. Roohr, co-editor of the NWA National Weather Digest and a Major in the US Air Force, is being transferred from the AF Weather Agency (AFWA) at Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska. His new assignment is with the 607th Weather Squadron in Yongsan, Korea supporting US forces in South Korea. At Headquarters AFWA, he was Chief of Technology Exploitation in the Directorate of Air/Space Science.

William P. Roeder, Chief Staff Meteorologist, at the 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick Air Force Base, Florida was recently selected by the US Air Force for the 1998 Zimmerman Award for the best application of climatology to military operations.

Capt. Kimberly W. Kreis, Flight Commander of the 55th Operations Support Squadron Weather Flight at Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska was recently selected by the US Air Force as the Outstanding Air Force Weather Company Grade Officer of the Year 1998. She also was presented with the Air Weather Association John and Barbara Collens Award for being the "best of the best."

WHAT WAS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE IN OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY IN THE 20th CENTURY?

A recent Associated Press national poll stated that America's blast off into space was chosen by most people as the greatest feat of the 20th century. Was the advent of meteorological satellites the greatest advance to operational meteorology? Send in your choice to our Newsletter Editors or the NWA office.

 

NWA WEB PAGE UPDATE

Your NWA web page (www.nwas.org) has some new features. On the main home page check out the:

• 1999 Annual Meeting information
• 2000 Annual Meeting 25th anniversary
• 1999 NWA Officers and Councilors listing
• 1976 to 1999 NWA Officers and Councilor archive
• and leave a note in the "Guestbook."

On the "Meteorology and Science Links" page click on:
• Weather Safety links
• Oceanography links
• Climate Change links

The Jobs link continues to be one of the most dynamic elements of the NWA web page. We have heard many "success stories" from employers finding qualified job applicants via NWA website job postings.

We are pleased to introduce a backup webmaster, Steve Listemaa. He just added the Guestbook. If you have comments or suggestions regarding the NWA website, please e-mail Stacy Bunin or Frank Brody via links on the NWA home page.

- Frank Brody, Home Page Advisory Committee Chairperson

 

 

LOCAL CHAPTER NEWS

The last Heart of the Midlands NWA Chapter (Omaha NE) meeting before Summer Break was held on the first day of summer, June 21st! Chapter Vice President, Paul McCrone, gave a presentation on "Sprites, Blue Jets, and Elves", which are electrical disturbances associated with intense electrification/lightning in thunderstorms. Paul provided an excellent presentation with explanations of the current theory behind these phenomena, and video footage that he took of some Sprites and Elves from his vantage point in Bellevue, Nebraska. Examples of the displayed "Sprites, Blue Jets, and Elves" imagery are available on the Internet world wide web at: http://147.134.145.4/sprites/ and http://147.134.145.4/sprites/event.htm

Questions and comments can be passed along to the chapter VP, Paul McCrone at HQ Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), e-mail: Paul.McCrone@afwa.af.mil.

We discussed chapter participation in the "CENTRAL PLAINS SEVERE WEATHER SYMPOSIUM" (CPSWS) which is planned for 27-28 August 1999 at the Peter Kiewitt Conference Center in Downtown Omaha. The keynote speaker will be Mr. Al Moller, an expert Storm Spotter/Chaser. We also hope to see the Doppler on Wheels (DOW) group from Univ. of Oklahoma to demo their van/equipment. Other participants tentatively include the major television stations in Omaha (KMTV3, ABC affiliate KETV 7, NBC affiliate WOWT, and FOX affiliate KPTM 42) and possibly some of the radio stations also. Booths will also be available for corporate sponsors to exhibit products and services. - Ralph Hanson

 

GREAT METEOROLOGICAL TRAINING AVAILABLE ONLINE

Several excellent online training resources have recently been added to the NWA Training Committee’s web site. Here are just a few:

WSR-88D Build 10 Training. The latest software for the national WSR-88D Doppler radar network brings with it several new, important features. This training, from the Operational Support Facility, is a must-see for anyone that uses the WSR-88D or its data.

Operational Decision Trees. These terrific forecasting tools were developed by Alan Johnson and others at the NWS Forecasting Office in New Orleans. Topics covered include flash flooding, microbursts, and precipitation estimation.

AWIPS Training Pages. These two sites (one from the NWS Training Center and one from the NWS Western Region) provide a wealth of information about the NWS new communication and data analysis platform.

WSR-88D Mesocyclone and Tornadic Signature Case Study Page. From the joint Severe Weather Warning Applications and Technology Transfer team comes many brief but informative radar case studies of supercells, tropical cyclone tornadoes, mini- and low-topped supercells, and bow-echo tornadoes.

Warning Decision Making II Workshop Support Page. Provided here are the presentations from the popular workshop, given by the Operations Training Branch of the WSR-88D Operational Support Facility.

Tips for Effective Oral and Poster Presentations. While not a new addition, this site gives great information for both presenters and attendees, including the steps to preparing a good talk, and how to get the most out of a scientific meeting. Those who plan to give a presentation at this year’s Annual Meeting are encouraged to check out this site.

All of these links and more can be found on the NWA Training Committee home page. At the NWA home page www.nwas.org click on NWA committees and then on Training Committee.

- Gail Hartfield, Training Committee Chairperson

 

AVIATION METEOROLOGY NEWS

The Aviation Weather Center, a NWS National Center for Environmental Prediction, has moved into a new building at 7220 NW 101st Terrace in Kansas City, Missouri. The address for the AWC Director, David R. Rodenhuis is: Aviation Weather Center, 7220 NW 101st Terrace Room 101, Kansas City MO 64153-2371; (816) 584-7201. Carolyn M. Kloth, the NWA co-chair of the Aviation Meteorology Committee, has the same office address. Her new phone number is (816) 584-7226.

Information about METAR/TAF codes and reference material from NWS Aviation Operations Manuals such as: D-20 Area Forecasts, D-22 In-Flight Advisories, D-25 CWSU, D-30 TWEB Route Forecasts, D-31 TAF are on the Internet world wide web at: www.nws.noaa.gov/ oso/oso1/oso12/docs.htm

- Terry Lankford, co-chair Aviation Meteorology Committee

 

A PHI KAPPA PHI INVITATION

James P. Kaetz, Editor of the National Forum, invites NWA members to call in for a complimentary copy of the Spring 1999 issue while they last. National Forum is the quarterly publication of the Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi, the nation's oldest and largest interdisciplinary honor society. Their mission is to recognize and promote academic excellence in all fields of higher education. Their membership numbers more than 120,000 and their National Fellowship Program awards approximately $380,000 a year to graduate fellowships. The guest editor of the Spring 1999 issue, Dr. John Knox of Valparaiso University is a Phi Kappa Phi fellow and a NWA member.

The National Forum Spring 1999 issue focuses on "Weather and Climate." Articles featured are:

David D. Herring and Yoram J. Kaufman, "Assessing the Role of Biomass Burning in Global Climate: New Satellite Technologies"
Walter A. Lyons, "Lightning: Tales of Fire and Ice"
Michael Mogil, "The Ups and Mainly Downbursts of Thunderstorms"
Edward O'Lenic, "Climate and Weather: The ENSO Connection"
S. George Philander, "El Niño: A Predictable Climate Fluctuation"
Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel, "Climate and Biosphere: Dynamic Partners"
Drew Shindell, "Modeling Global Climate Change"
Steven R. Silberberg, "The Forecast Behind the Forecast: Issues in Computer Weather Forecasting"

For a complimentary issue (while they last) of the Spring 1999 National Forum, call 1-800-804-9880 and mention you are a NWA member. For multiple copies, a charge would be levied. NWA President, Jim Moore, thanked James Kaetz for his invitation.

The National Forum home page is at: www.auburn.edu/ academic/societies/phi_kappa_phi/natforum.html The Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi home page is at: www.phikappaphi.org

 

MEETINGS OF INTEREST

Third High Plains Conference, 28-29 July 1999, Goodland, Kansas. The Third High Plains Conference is sponsored by the High Plains Chapter of the American Meteorological Society and the High Plains Chapter of the National Weather Association. It will be held Wednesday, 28 July and Thursday, 29 July 1999, hosted by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Goodland, Kansas. Goodland is located about a 2 1/2 hour drive east of Denver International Airport via Interstate 70. Commuter air service is available between Denver and Goodland. The deadline for Call for Papers has passed. The conference registration fee is only $25, thus no conference preprint or postprint will be available. Please write checks payable to the High Plains Chapter of the AMS. For further information contact: Third High Plains Conference Committee, National Weather Service, 920 Armory Road, Goodland KS 67735-9273. Telephone: (785) 899-3725 from 8 AM to 4 PM Mountain Time; Fax: (785) 899-3501 and e-mail contacts:

Bruce Entwistle (bruce.entwistle@noaa.gov);

Scott Mentzer (scott.mentzer@noaa.gov) and

Llyle Barker (llyle.barker@noaa.gov)

Central Plains Severe Weather Symposium, 27-28 August 1999, Omaha, Nebraska. This symposium will be held at the Peter Kiewitt Conference Center in downtown Omaha. For information regarding this event contact the Heart of the Midlands NWA Chapter through Ralph Hanson at HANSONRA@stratcom.af.mil or (402) 294-3866.

 

NWA SOL HIRSCH EDUCATION FUND GRANTS

The NWA Education Committee needs help from all members to spread the word to teachers in grades K-12 that $500 grants are available annually from the NWA to help improve the education of their students in meteorology. The teachers selected will be able to use the funds to take an accredited course in atmospheric sciences, attend a relevant workshop or conference, or purchase scientific materials or equipment for the classroom. Three grants or more are possible in 1999 thanks to the many members who have contributed to this fund in honor of Sol Hirsch who retired in 1992 after being the NWA Executive Director for 11 years. Applications can be obtained from the NWA Education Committee, 3809 Clarks Lane Suite 007, Baltimore MD 21215 or from the NWA office. Applications are also available on the NWA website at www.nwas.org Completed applications are due to the Education Committee by 1 August 1999.

- Sol Hirsch, Education Committee Chair

 

GREGORY WITHEE HEADS NESDIS

Gregory Withee has been named Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services at NOAA. As such, he heads the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), which operates the nation's geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellites and maintains environmental data used by scientists throughout the world. Withee had been deputy assistant administrator at the satellite service since 1994. From 1991 until 1994, Withee served as deputy assistant administrator for environmental information services within NESDIS.

Withee was first employed in the private sector with the Lockheed Ocean Laboratory. After serving for some years as the chief oceanographer for the NOAA Data Buoy Office, he served as the senior oceanographer for the World Meteorological Organization. In 1983, he was appointed special assistant to the administrator of NOAA for ocean service centers. From 1986 to 1991, Withee was director of the National Oceanographic Data Center, the world's largest archive of unclassified oceanographic data. Withee has received numerous awards and has been cited for special recognition both in government and industry. In 1994, he received the Presidential Distinguished Rank Award for extraordinary performance of the Senior Executive Service. Withee has authored more than 100 publications and reports and has lectured at a wide variety of conferences and symposiums. Withee received his undergraduate degree in physics from Pomona College and an M.S. in oceanography from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. - NOAA press release

 

3 MAY 1999 TORNADO OUTBREAK

The deadliest tornado breakout this year occurred over central Oklahoma and Kansas killing 46 people and destroying more than 1,700 homes on Monday, 3 May. This was more devastating than last year's outbreak in Florida of 22-23 February 1998 where 42 lives were lost. It was also the deadliest to hit Oklahoma since 9 April 1947, when a tornado claimed 113 lives in Woodward.

The strongest of the approximately 76 tornadoes that hit Monday, was classified as an F-5. Officials said the death toll could have been worse if people had not heeded warnings to take cover underground. The largest tornado cut a path one mile wide and 60 miles long and was seen by many worldwide as television stations in the Oklahoma City area kept live coverage throughout the event. Advance watches, warnings and the comprehensive television coverage were credited with saving numerous lives. Our colleagues in the National Weather Service in Norman OK and other offices, Air Force Weather at Tinker AFB, storm spotters/chasers and those in the Broadcasting Industry worked long, adrenaline-filled hours as they warned the citizens of central Oklahoma and Kansas while at the same time worrying about their own lives and their families and friends — smart work and great cooperation — exceedingly well done!

This event brought home to many throughout the country, the terror and the devastating effects of tornadoes.

 

CONGRESSIONAL NEWS PROMISING

The Chairman of the House Republican Conference "honors" National Weather Service for tornado warnings; urges "generous funding."

Rep. J. C. Watts, Jr., (R-OK), Chairman of the House Republican Conference, in a June 7th House floor speech, praised the National Weather Service for timely tornado warnings. The Oklahoma Republican said: "Without the (Oklahoma tornado) warnings (of 3 May) by the National Weather Service, the number of personal injury and deaths would undoubtedly have been higher. I have heard countless stories of people who, at the prompting of the National Weather Service warnings, took shelter and survived. I and numerous other Oklahomans are indebted to the service of the National Weather Service." Rep. Watts concluded by saying that he supported "generous funding of the (National Weather) Service through this appropriations process."

House enacts appropriations bill containing $5 million for NOAA weather radio expansion in rural areas.

On June 8th, the House voted 246-183 to pass the FY 2000 Agriculture, Rural Development, and Related Agencies Appropriations bill (HR 1906). The funding bill includes $5 million to expand the NOAA Weather Radio network, which includes additional transmitters, receivers, and necessary infrastructure. The Weather Radio funding was part of Department of Agriculture's FY 2000 budget request. The item is also consistent with the Administration's National Performance Review effort to expand NOAA Weather Radio coverage to 95 percent of the United States population.

FY 2000 Defense appropriation bill, including funding for polar orbiting satellite, passes Senate.

On June 8, the Senate approved S 1122, the Department of Defense Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2000, by a vote of 93-4. The bill included $80.1 million under the Air Force Research, Development, Technology, and Evaluation account for the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). This funding level is the full amount requested by the President in his Fiscal Year 2000 budget proposal. The NPOESS program is a tri-agency partnership, involving NOAA, the Air Force, and NASA, and the program is jointly funded through NOAA and the Air Force, with each contributing one-half of the funding each year for the program. The bill also bars the disestablishment of the U.S. Air Force reserve hurricane hunters. The Senate-passed bill includes language that forbids the Defense Department from reducing or disestablishing the operations of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve. The Squadron, known better as "Hurricane Hunters" is located at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.

The House Science Subcommittee on Basic Research joined with the Energy and Environment Subcommittee on 16 June to convene a hearing entitled Tornadoes: Understanding, Modelling, and Forecasting Supercell Storms. Committee members held the joint hearing to specifically examine federally funded tornado research and how that research is used by the NWS to improve warning times. Dennis McCarthy, Meteorologist in Charge of the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Norman, Oklahoma, briefed on the improvements in forecasting resulting from the deployment of the WSR-88D network and the system developed to assist the forecasters in integrating all data, AWIPS. Dennis stated that the NWS will finish deploying the AWIPS system nationwide by the end of June. McCarthy and the other witnesses, Morris Weisman of NCAR, Roger Wakomoto of UCLA, and Howard Bluestein of the University of Oklahoma, stressed the important links between fundamental research and improvements in accurately forecasting severe storms. Bluestein stressed that learning how tornadoes form and behave by direct observation is a necessary first step to improving forecasts and tornado warnings. He pointed to new radar technology and faster and larger computers as a key to progress in understanding tornadoes and protecting the public.

NWA President Jim Moore was extremely happy to hear words that fit this year's theme of linking science and research with advances in weather forecasting. Hope the good news continues

JOB CORNER

Ed: The NWA lists job openings in the regular paper Newsletter copies free from equal opportunity employers for the benefit of members. Submit job openings to the NWA office at anytime. See http://www.nwas.org/jobs.html for the latest listings.