NATIONAL WEATHER ASSOCIATION

NEWSLETTER

No. 99-7 July 1999

 

PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE

Working Together to Advance Weather Forecasting as an Applied Science

Advances in scientific communication have revolutionized the ways in which we can improve our understanding of atmospheric processes, for the purposes of teaching, research, or applying new ideas to day-to-day forecast problems. The availability of information on the Internet (e.g., the NWA Home Page and its many links), compact disks (e.g., OSF’s warning decision making CDs and COMET CDs), teletraining courses, on-line journals, etc., all make mastering new concepts or clarifying ‘old’ material easier today than ever before. It is difficult to remember how we exchanged information and data before e-mail, fax machines, ftp, and next-day air express. No one would deny that all these avenues represent impressive gains in advancing science and scientific research. Yet, at the risk of sounding old-fashioned, there is something missing in all this speed-of-light correspondence and data transmission — effective communication and collaboration between people.

A colleague chanced to give me a short essay written by John Locke, a professor at the University of Cambridge - England, titled "No Talking in the Corridors of Science," in American Scientist magazine (Jan-Feb, 1999, vol. 87). Dr. Locke’s concern is how all of these technological advances in scientific communication have affected our ability to collaborate and convene — two critical components of scientific training and research. He notes, "We can say what we mean with words, but colleagues cannot know whether we mean what we say without access to our face and voice, and the output of these "nonverbal" systems is irreducible to alphabetic letters." He further notes that speech is used not merely to express thought but to create bonds between people and companionship. "Effective collaboration", he notes, "requires trust, which is facilitated by the transmission of personally readable behaviors — eye movement, facial expressions, vocal nuances." It is difficult, if not impossible, to do this electronically. Learning and researching involve more than reading bullets, or viewing colorful images, or listening to "talking heads". They involve people working with people.

Convening is essential for scientists. Most people would agree that the value of a scientific conference exceeds the formal papers presented and discussed. While these are important, it is the spontaneous lobby discussions, backroom conversations and dinner meetings that make conferences invaluable. Think of how many great ideas were generated during meals or refreshment breaks between conference sessions, and sketched out on a napkin! How can this stimulating environment be duplicated electronically?

Workshops and training courses involve much more than merely reading a text and answering questions. A large measure of true learning comes through the spontaneous exchange of ideas between participants. As a university professor, I find that I have never taught a course where I did not learn something from my students. Without face-to-face discussions this would not be true.

I am by no means suggesting that we retreat to the old days of strictly snail mail and telephone tag to communicate; I am not a Luddite! I am as hooked on new technology as the next person. However, I think that we need to recognize the value of face-to-face learning and collaboration as we work together to advance weather forecasting as an applied science. We need to concern ourselves with exactly what constitutes the optimum balance between the use of new communication technologies and human interaction in scientific affairs.

A great opportunity to convene is coming up in mid-October at the NWA Annual Meeting. It will offer face-to-face and hands-on training workshops, keynote addresses and exhibits. It will also include over 120 presentations — many of which are on studies still in progress — to collaborate on. Plan NOW to attend!

- Jim Moore

  MEMBER NEWS

WELCOME! New corporate member:

DELTA AIR LINES, INC. Department 091, PO Box 20706, Atlanta, GA 30320-6001. Point of Contact: Joseph E. Luisi, Manager Meteorology, Tel: (404) 715-0214; Fax: (404) 715-7250; e-mail: joseph.luisi@delta-air.com

William P. Roeder, chief staff meteorologist for the 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Air Force Base, Florida recently won the Air Force Space Command Safety Award of Distinction for the 45th Space Wing at Cape Canaveral Air Station and Patrick Air Force Base for lightning safety and public education. In addition, Bill, along with Capt. Scott C. Jacobs, Weather Flight Commander, and James E. Sardonia, Launch Weather Officer, for the 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Air Force Base, Florida recently won the 1998 US Air Force Space Command award for the Most Significant Technical Contribution to the Space Environmental Support Mission.

 

LOCAL CHAPTER NEWS

Arkansas NWA Chapter, 17 June meeting minutes: The final meeting of the 1998-1999 year was held at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in North Little Rock. Forty people were in attendance. The evening started off with an old-fashioned cookout. The delectable fare included grilled burgers, chicken breasts and bratwursts along with all the trimmings. All attendees enjoyed the great food and fellowship. The program for the evening was an interesting and informative presentation by Ron Holle, a research scientist and lightning expert who works at the NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, OK. Ron talked about the production of lightning by thunderstorms and gave yearly statistics on lightning deaths and injuries. He also talked extensively about lightning safety rules. A question and answer session was held at the end of the presentation.

The Chapter will take a couple of months off for the summer and meetings will resume in September.

- Newton Skiles, Corresponding Secretary

The Central Iowa NWA Chapter had two interesting meetings during the spring and summer months to finish the year. The chapter hosted a Fire Weather Mini-Workshop in June, at the Comfort Suites Inn in Urbandale, Iowa. Following dinner, Brenda Brock, Meteorologist In Charge of the NWS Des Moines office shared her knowledge and experience as a Fire Weather and Incident Meteorologist in Missoula, MT and Grand Junction, CO. This was followed by a presentation by Biologist, Pauline Drobney, of the Fish and Wildlife Service. She shared her experiences in prescribed burning methods and techniques for preserving the Neal Smith Wildlife Refuge in Prairie City, IA, located about 20 miles east of Des Moines. The session concluded with a presentation by John McPhee, instructor at the Fire Service Institute of Iowa State University in Ames, IA on how weather affects fire fighting training. The meeting was attended by about 15 members and interested parties. A proposal was submitted by John McLaughlin of KCCI TV for the chapter to purchase a dedicated communication radio between the media and the National Weather Service in Des Moines, to sustain communications during times when the NWS office phone lines and radar are knocked off. It would also be used as a means to relay TV weather spotter reports directly to the NWS. The chapter voted for future discussion and the development of a Memorandum of Understanding to be voted on by NWA members via e-mail or at the September NWA meeting. Keith Kutz of the Iowa Energy Center requested the chapter to consider writing a proposal to purchase wind monitoring equipment from the IEC which it will be discarding upon completion of their wind energy assessment in Iowa. The equipment may be used to instrument a 2,000 ft communications tower in central Iowa to measure and study boundary layer winds and the low-level jet. Andy Kula will be coordinating a meeting of interested groups in the project once a proposal can be written.

On 9 July, several members of the Central Iowa Chapter and Sioux Falls SD Chapter of the National Weather Association went on a field trip to Alta, Iowa, home of the world's largest wind farm. Nearly 193 MW of wind capacity are being generated on over 257 Zond 750kW series wind turbines. Ken Hach, site manager, of the ENRON project was host to the group for an afternoon tour of the wind farm. David Osterberg, an environmental consultant on Global Climate Change for the Iowa Department of Natural Resources also gave an informative presentation on how wind energy can offset the effects of global warming. The group then congregated for a wonderful home cooked meal at Baker's Court in nearby Storm Lake, Iowa. Photos of this field trip and of the fire weather meeting will be posted to the Central Iowa NWA Chapter website soon (www.ecity.net/~iowanwa).

An Invitation to Wind Fest, 18 September 1999 in Alta, Iowa. The Central Iowa NWA Chapter has been asked to relay this information and recommend a visit to the largest wind farm in the world. The chapter may be involved in some fashion. Here is an announcement from Melanie Miller, Director of the Alta, Iowa, Chamber of Commerce:

Dedication of the wind farm: 10 AM, 18 September 1999

Wind Fest: 11 AM to 5 PM

ENRON will be dedicating the recently completed, 259 turbine wind farm located in Buena Vista County. Wind Fest will include children’s activities that are creative and scientific relating to wind, a craft show, entertainment, food and the appearance of some well-know personalities. ENRON, the Storm Lake Convention and Visitors Bureau, Storm Lake Area Development Corporation, the Alta Chamber of Commerce and other Buena Vista County representatives are planning the program. Anyone interested in becoming involved can call the Chamber at 712-732-3780 or SLADC at 712-732-4563.

- Andy Kula, Vice President, Central Iowa NWA

 

MT. BAKER HOLDS NEW SNOWFALL RECORD — NOAA REPORTS

It’s official! Mt. Baker, Washington, has set a new record for the most snowfall ever measured in the United States in a single season, the Commerce Department’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported on 2 August 1999.

The Mt. Baker Ski Area in northwestern Washington State reported a record 1,140 inches of snowfall for the 1998-1999 snowfall season.

The figure was scrutinized by the National Climate Extremes Committee, which is responsible for evaluating potential national record-setting extreme events. The committee, composed of experts from NOAA, the American Association of State Climatologists, and a regional expert from the Western Regional Climate Center, made a unanimous recommendation to the director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center to accept the figure.

"In accepting the validity of the 1,140 inches of snowfall at Mt. Baker, the National Climatic Data Center recognizes that a new record has been set," said Tom Karl, director of the center. "The previous U.S. seasonal snowfall record was 1,122 inches, set during the 1971-1972 snowfall season at Mt. Rainer/Paradise, a station located at 5,500 feet on the slopes of Mt. Rainer, about 150 miles south of Mt. Baker."

Snowfall can be extremely difficult to measure accurately because it settles, melts, and during times of wind, drifts from place to place. The committee reports that the measurements met snowfall observation standards and practices prescribed by the National Weather Service, and were thus considered to be an accurate depiction of snowfall amounts that fell.

"The measurement frequency was once a day; a flat surface was used to measure daily snowfall amounts; and a snow stake for snow depth measurement was also in place," said Raymond Downs, an observations standards expert on the committee. "Both snowfall and snow depth were measured in acceptable locations. The bottom line is the observations were taken in a manner that meets official observation standards."

Robert Leffler, team leader for the evaluation, said, "Committee members voted to recognize the amount as a new U.S. record because of several factors. These include acceptable snowfall measurement methods, detailed record-keeping, and other corroborative evidence such as independent snow data from other sources, eyewitness accounts, and unusual damage to trees and structures resulting from the crushing weight of the deep snow pack and avalanches."

The Mt. Baker Ski Area is located at an elevation of 4,200 feet, nine miles northeast of the summit of the Mt. Baker volcano. The snowfall season is for the period from 1 July 1998 through 30 June 1999. The committee was concerned only with national records for the United States. However, this total also stands as a world record for a verifiable amount.

The heavy snowfalls normally experienced in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State are the result of several factors. Winter is naturally the wettest season as the west-to-east planetary circulation expands southward and strengthens in speed, with storms striking the Pacific Northwest every few days. Air laden with moisture after its journey across the Pacific Ocean is forced to ascent the Cascade Range, dropping abundant precipitation. Freezing levels average about 4,000 feet over the winter months, so that near this altitude snowfall amounts increase very rapidly with just small increases in elevation. This 1998-1999 season, a moderately strong La Niña pattern is credited with accentuating this stormy pattern, with a much higher frequency of wet and cold weather systems affecting especially the area from the Cascade Range westward. Freezing levels remained abnormally consistently low throughout the winter.

 

NCDC ANNOUNCES THE CLIMATIC DATA ONLINE (CDO) SYSTEM

The NOAA/National Climatic Data Center announces the Climatic Data Online (CDO) system, with full period of record digital data for 5 types of climatic data:

  • U.S. daily surface data

  • U.S. monthly surface data

  • U.S. hourly precipitation data

  • U.S. 15-minute precipitation data

  • Global monthly surface data

Data from as early as the late 1800's are available, and each dataset is updated as soon as the latest data are available. Users can select data by country, region, state, climate division, county, and station; and by time period (e.g., year, month, day). Data can be provided in a space or comma-delimited format (easy import into spreadsheet or database), with or without the station name(s) included in the file -- user choice. Station history and inventory files are included, along with complete data format documentation. A help system provides information to assist users.

CDO provides data previously only available via off-line order (e.g., place order by phone). Data are currently provided at no charge to ".edu" and ".noaa" users, with charges by credit card for others -- but charges are significantly reduced as compared to off-line orders. Other datasets will be added to the system later this year and next year, including hourly surface data.

The Internet address for the NCDC CDO is: http:// www5.ncdc.noaa.gov:7777/plclimprod/plsql/poemain.poe

If users have questions or experience problems with this new CDO system, they can contact NCDC by e-mail at: orders@ncdc.noaa.gov.

- Neal Lott

 

In the June Newsletter, this question was posed —

WHAT WAS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE IN OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY IN THE 20th CENTURY?

A recent Associated Press national poll stated that America's blast off into space was chosen by most people as the greatest feat of the 20th century. Was the advent of meteorological satellites the greatest advance to operational meteorology?

Dr. Fred W. Decker responded with, "I'd nominate the emergence of air mass and frontal analysis, which put meteorology on a solid scientific basis and replaced the old 'high and low' isobaric relationships. Using very sparse clues, the young men led by V. Bjerknes at Bergen, Norway, during WWI made a true "giant leap" from a blind reliance on fair weather in highs, unsettled in lows, and intensely squally weather in sharp troughs. For the first time the physical processes of cyclones got charted and understood. Those pioneers at Bergen achieved great insight without the benefit of satellite views of cloud systems. Surely that early breakthrough which opened the way for the rapid development of aviation meteorology deserves the trophy!" Send in your choice to our Newsletter Editors or the NWA office.

 

Letter to the Editor

Please pass to all members — "Don't think you are smarter than the warning signals!" I just had a weak spell and checked into the hospital, and didn't get out until after an angioplasty. The doctor said 90% blockage — a major heart attack waiting to happen. I knew the warning signals for potential severe weather and took action all the time as a responsible forecaster. I also knew the warning signals for cancer and heart disease and shrugged them off until it was almost too late. - Tom

 

NWA STATEMENT OF INCOME AND EXPENSES FOR 1998

INCOME FOR 1998

Membership Dues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 70,715.50

Donations:

Sol Hirsch NWA Education Fund . . .... . . . . . . . . 2,311.21

General Fund Donations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,824.00

Subscriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,500.40

Publication Fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,775.00

Reprints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 747.00

Radio-TV Certification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,340.00

Publication Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,421.45

Advertising Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 765.00

Annual Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,325.00

Postage Reimbursement . . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . . . . . . 613.66

Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,150.10

Dividends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 702.27

NWA logo items . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533.00

Miscellaneous . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61.02

Total Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $146,534.61

EXPENSES FOR 1997

Digest Printing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 7,846.00

Newsletter Printing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,907.57

Other Printing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,479.66

Digest layout . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,110.80

Personnel Salaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,400.00

Management Fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443.37

Temporary help fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,115.00

Postage and Shipping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,013.67

Mailer Fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,699.75

Annual Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,981.49

Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,306.63

Taxes and Soc. Sec/Medicare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,464.04

Equipment and Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,205.54

Office Supplies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,205.51

Awards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 894.96

Education Fund Grants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,000.00

Donations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513.10

Travel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,666.68

Radio-TV Seal Certificates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399.75

Refunds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 838.50

Storage rent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420.00

NWA logo items . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,879.07

Miscellaneous . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442.88

Total Expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $133,233.97

INCOME OVER EXPENSES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $13,300.64

This is the data in the report submitted to the IRS (Form 990) and reported here as per the NWA Bylaws. The annual meeting expenses paid in 1998 are noticeably much higher than normal. The major invoices for the 1997 annual meeting did not arrive until early 1998; the major invoices for the 1998 meeting were payable in October 1998. Net assets at the end of 1998 were $193,643.06. Reserve funds are growing as planned to be able to fund office space and a larger paid staff in the future as well as to fund more education grants and other initiatives.

 

OKLAHOMA GOVERNOR PRESENTS HUMANITARIAN AWARDS

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Norman and the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center also in Norman both received the Governor's Humanitarian Award from Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating. The citations begin, "On May 3-4, 1999, severe tornadoes struck many Oklahoma communities. As the storms approached, weather forecasters, the media and public safety officials worked tirelessly to warn those in their paths...Your service was exemplary, and we are proud to honor you as a recipient...."

Governor Keating also presented the Humanitarian Award to the four Television Stations in Oklahoma City KFOR, KOCO, KWTV and KOKH).

Joe Schaefer, Director of the Storm Prediction Center and the 1998 NWA President said, "It is really a great sign, in keeping with Jim Moore's President's Message from last month (June NWA Newsletter), when the NWS (the WFO and the SPC) and the broadcasters all receive an award for work during a tornado event. COOPERATION pays dividends."

 

DO'S AND DON'TS FOR WEATHERCASTERS

Bruce Thomas gave a presentation at the 1997 NWA Annual Meeting in Reno on his experiences during the Killer Tornado in Jarrell, Texas. He was at KCEN-TV in Waco at the time and was able to view the tornadoes out-the-window and via Skycam. He developed a list of Do's and Don'ts and presented them at the Reno meeting. (Bruce is now with KCTV in Kansas City). After the Oklahoma City tornadoes in early May 1999, Dan Threlkeld of KFOR-TV in OKC was asked to comment and add to the list based on his experiences.

Bruce's List:

Do's

  • Participate in Skywarn Spotters training yearly.

  • Become a licensed Ham Radio Operator and join a local Ham Club.

  • Cellular or weather pagers for staff.

  • "Be There When IT Happens!!!"

  • Skycam! Skycam! Skycam!

  • Stay with the situation without breaking!!!

  • Get staff to call to towns in the storm path for live phone reports.

  • Know your community Emergency Manager, Fire Chiefs and Law Enforcement.

  • Try to stay calm when all hell is breaking loose.

  • Have good insurance on your car, home and life!!!

Don'ts

  • Don't think it won't happen in your own backyard.

  • Don't' ignore your gut instincts.

  • Don't completely trust your own staff to be there!

  • Don't go fishing on a day when the CAPE is 7500.

  • Don't return to afternoon soaps when a tornado is on the ground and expect to be the "Weather Authority."

  • Don't pose as a State Emergency official to gain access to the disaster area.

  • Don't rush to the scene of disaster to tape promotions on how great your coverage was before the bodies are buried.

  • Don't trust your local NEXRAD Site as your only option for data during severe storm situations.

  • Don't ever think it won't happen again!!!

Dan's additions:

DO

  • Prepare before the storm happens.

  • Have a plan of action, and go over it with EVERYONE. Involve all of your resources: news folks, sales, and production.

  • Be as street specific as possible in reporting. Give local landmarks like: near Baptist Hospital or at the University.

  • Tell viewers where your information is coming from: ham radio spotter, damage report phoned in from a viewer, NWS, information from one of your staff, etc.

  • Remind viewers to stay away from the storm area.

  • Remember that children are watching, some by themselves.

  • Talk in a calm, reassuring tone.

    DO NOT

  • Panic. If you freak out, so will those watching and listening.

  • Assume everyone knows what to do. Give safety instructions over and over and over.

Ed. If any members have do's and don'ts to add, please send them in. This is your newsletter to share ideas, forecasting techniques, news and comments.

JOB CORNER

Ed: The NWA lists job openings in the regular paper Newsletter copies free from equal opportunity employers for the benefit of members. Submit job openings to the NWA office at anytime.

See http://www.nwas.org/jobs.html for the latest listings.