February-March 1997 Newsletter

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NEWSLETTER

NATIONAL WEATHER ASSOCIATION

No. 97-2,3                          February-March 1997

PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE

"Operational meteorologists providing value-added products and services to a diverse customer base." Without a doubt, the single most discussed topic within the operational meteorology community recently has been the proposed $27.5 million in budget cuts to the National Weather Service. The national media gave the proposed cuts widespread coverage. Newspapers and local television stations in Florida have rigorously covered the event, with special emphasis on the budget cut's impact on the National Hurricane Center. The reaction from affected organizations has been quick, strong and vocal. The Director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction has briefed the impacts and threatened to resign if the cuts are not rescinded. The National Hurricane Center Deputy Director and Florida emergency managers stated the nation's hurricane warning system was already understaffed and couldn't do their job with less people. Additionally, the governors of Florida and North Carolina are lobbying the federal government to reinstate the funds.

What can we do as an association? First, I have prepared a letter to the Secretary of Commerce expressing our association's concern about the budget cut impacts on our main customers (the general public) and on our mission (supporting and promoting excellence in operational meteorology). When approved by the NWA Council (Officers, Councilors and the Executive Director), I will send it to the Secretary and subsequently publish it in the NWA Newsletter. Second, I encourage you to individually voice your concerns through appropriate channels. Many of you have tremendously positive messages about the value-added products of your operational weather services, others count on the data and warnings provided, and all of us want to ensure continual improvements in operational meteorology and related activities—publish those messages! During this resource-challenged time, organizations that most effectively market their "pain or gain message" (budget cuts are so severe, you cannot afford the pain; return on investment is so great, you'd be unwise not to invest) should realize the least budget cuts and impacts. We received and printed two "Letters to the Editor" that address the budget and downsizing problems.

Please don't hesitate to forward your comments to me or to our Newsletter co-editors on any pertinent subject.

On a more positive note, our Annual Meeting is "just around the corner." We will be meeting in Reno, Nevada from 19-24 October 1997. See the Call for Papers later in this Newsletter. A list of NWA Committee Chairpersons is also in this issue on page 6. Additionally, Joe Schaefer is heading up the Nominating Committee (a new principle duty of the President-Elect) and putting together the slate for next year's election. Please be considering where you can best serve our association and let Joe, Kevin or me know your desires. Our association is only as good as your volunteer spirit. Thanks in advance for your assistance!

Speaking of volunteer spirit, I've received very positive feedback on the Weekend Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference held in Des Moines from 14-16 Mar. Thanks to John McLaughlin, President of the Central Iowa NWA Chapter and Coordinator of the event, for a job extremely well done. Additionally, thanks to Les Lemon, Chuck Doswell and Alan Moller for their continual willingness to support such worthwhile events.

If you haven't seen our Web Page lately, check it out. Bill Tazewell, Stacy Bunin and Frank Brody have done a superb job of page construction. Greg Thompson has updated the aviation committee pages and Jeff Tongue has developed an education committee home page. We will be using the NWA Web Page as a means of timely information dissemination. The address is: http://www.nwas.org
- Thomas Adang

DATES TO REMEMBER
20-26 April - Sky Awareness Week 1997
15 June - Submission of Undergraduate Meteorological Satellite Applications papers due -- see new award in January Newsletter.
19-24 October - 1997 NWA Annual Meeting, Reno, Nevada. See Call for Papers on page 3
National Volunteer Week is 13 to 19 April and I take this opportunity to thank all members for your tremendous volunteer efforts. Without you giving of your time, initiatives, monetary donations and other resources, the NWA would not have started in 1975 nor grown for 22 years. Thank you also for volunteering your resources in your local communities to help increase weather awareness, knowledge and safety. - Executive Director

LETTERS to the Editor

Budgetary Foul Weather

Time and again the atmospheric science community is urged to speak out and lobby the Congress in support of its programs. [We were advised to do so by Congressman George Brown at a public policy symposium in 1976*, and as recently as February 3 by congressional staffers at a forum in Long Beach, California on "Ensuring Our Environmental Programs in Today's Climate".] However, the vast majority of our community are government employees who are precluded from lobbying. As one who is not so inhibited, I raise my voice [and excite others to do the same] in the hope of avoiding an environmental public policy disaster.

The across-the-board cuts in funding for most agencies, many beginning in the current fiscal year, are creating especially stormy weather for the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS is about two-thirds of the way through a 12-year, $ 4.5-billion modernization program authorized and funded by a bipartisan Congress. This has given birth to a national network of 164 Doppler radars which have already demonstrated their value to public safety by increasing the warning time for tornadoes to an average of 11 minutes—enough to save the lives of hundreds to thousands of people each year. It has also created a new generation of geosynchronous satellites which have greatly enhanced warnings of severe thunderstorms and hurricanes, not to mention the immense contributions to aviation safety.

The modernization program has produced other benefits. Improvements in the polar-orbiting satellites and in methods of incorporating their measurements into numerical prediction models developed by the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), arguably the foremost prediction center of its kind in the world, along with highly improved computer models, has increased the skill of mid-range forecasts by the equivalent of one day. Five-day forecasts are now made with the same accuracy that characterized 3-day forecasts 20 years ago. Last year, in its 24-hour forecasts of hurricane tracks, NCEP reduced the 10-year average error of 95 miles by 24%. This winter, NCEP showed increased accuracy in predicting the location and amount of precipitation in the flood prone areas of the northwest. And after many years of research on long-range prediction, NCEP and its academic colleagues have attained modest but significant improvements in 6- to 12-month forecasts based on understanding of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Further improvements in accuracy and in the weather products furnished to the public and weather-sensitive industries will surely come from completion of the modernization program and additional advances in observation and modeling.

To realize the benefits of these new observations and models the NWS must have a robust information processing and display system capable of rapidly and efficiently digesting the unprecedented quantity of data and imagery now available. [It must also allow the operational meteorologists to select pertinent forecast maps, satellite and radar imagery rapidly and efficiently. This is the only way that the newly organized system of river and weather forecast centers can hope to realize the full value of the data.] This is to be accomplished by AWIPS, the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. However, to date, only a handful (15) of prototype AWIPS systems have been delivered, 21 more have been authorized, and budget cuts threaten the remaining 112. In addition, NCEP, has been ordered to make immediate reductions in force that threaten its services to the public and its very existence.

These advances the NWS has made are not pie in the sky —they are real. And, they are as critical to the health and welfare of the public, to aviation safety, and to the national economy as are the impressive actual and potential advances in medicine in recent years. One need not conduct a cost-benefit analysis to demonstrate the value of the NWS and its modernization program.

With the enthusiastic support of several administrations of both parties and the Congress, and the incredible creativity and dedication of hundreds of scientists, engineers, and managers in government, industry, and academe, the NWS has nearly reached their goal. What a waste it would be to jeopardize the completion of this impressive program for the want of a relatively modest continuation of the funds that are needed. Our community does not seek immunity from the national belt tightening; all we ask is that it be done in a manner which does not waste the vast investments in time and money that have brought us this far and does not endanger the infrastructure which made it all possible. [I urge all in the atmospheric science community to keep abreast of the NWS budget cuts and to speak out and inform local and national leaders of the potential impacts at every opportunity.] Sincerely,
David Atlas - Past President AMS
16100 Golf Club Road (Apt 302)
Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33326
*Atmospheric Science and Public Policy, (Editor, D. Atlas) American Meteorological Society, Boston, 105 pp., 1976. Text material outside of [ ] was reprinted with permission from Science, Volume 275, page 1719, 21 March 1997. Copyright 1997, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Comments on Budget Cuts and Jobs In the June 1996 NWA Newsletter, president Wes Junker discussed the closing of the NWS Command Center Weather Service Unit (CCWSU) and the future of Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs) at the Air Traffic Control Centers. Wes questioned what the NWA role should be.

I figured I would add my 2 cents worth as a NWA/AMS member. I think each member needs to speak out on the current tendency to cut back and downsize. While times are tough, and maybe a few cuts are needed in many areas across the country, are cuts going too far? Is downsizing going to far? Whether it be the NWS, CWSUs, NCEP, computing firms, or funding at the university; one has to ask some questions.

This not only applies to meteorology, but many fields. What type of future are we leaving for our young people? Many schools are turning out a lot of meteorologists each year. Even in the best of times, getting a job in meteorology would be quite competitive. Now with more students coming into the field, and less jobs, the future looks even more bleak. This is at a time when there is more work than ever to do. Whether it is forecasting, research, applying new technologies, or looking into possible climate changes, the challenge ahead is great.

Let's give our young people a chance. Let's make the USA and the World a better place. If you work in the field, speak up to how things should be done. If you are in the position of hiring, then hire! Sincerely, David Martin - Meteorologist
3056 Westover Dr.
State College, PA 16801

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NWA Newsletter (ISSN 0271-1044)
Co-Editors: Larry Burch and Eli Jacks
Publisher: Kevin Lavin, Executive Director
Published monthly by the National Weather Association,
6704 Wolke Court, Montgomery, Alabama 36116-2134.
Tel/FAX: (334) 213-0388
E-mail: NatWeaAsoc@aol.com
Home page: http://www.nwas.org

Submit newsletter items directly to: Editor NWA Newsletter, Eli Jacks, NOAA/NWS W/OM21, 1325 East West Hwy Room 13125, Silver Spring MD 20910; e-mail: Elliott.Jacks@noaa.gov or to: Larry Burch, NOAA/NWSFO, 2242 W. North Temple, Salt Lake City UT 84116; e-mail: Larry.Burch@noaa.gov. Material received by the 5th will be considered for that month's issue.

Members receive the monthly NWA Newsletter and quarterly National Weather Digest as part of their regular, student or corporate membership privileges. Contact the NWA for membership information. Newsletter subscriptions are available at $18.00 per year plus extra shipping costs outside USA. Single copies are $1.50.

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GOES-K LAUNCH - 24 APRIL

The third in a series of five advanced U.S. weather satellites is being prepared for a 0151 EDT 24 April 1997 launch from Cape Canaveral Air Station, Florida. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, now called NOAA GOES-K, is currently being prepared for launch at a payload processing facility near Cape Canaveral. NOAA GOES-9, launched on 23 May 1995, is currently overlooking the West Coast out into the Pacific including Hawaii. It is over the Equator at 135 degrees West longitude at an altitude of 22,239 statute miles. NOAA GOES-8, launched in April 1994, is overlooking the East Coast out into the Atlantic Ocean and is positioned at 75 degrees West. NOAA GOES-K, to be named NOAA GOES-10 once achieving orbit, will be stored on orbit at 105 degrees West longitude and placed into operation when needed as a replacement for GOES-8 or -9.

Call for Papers NWA Annual Meeting

The National Weather Association's twenty-second Annual Meeting will be held 19-24 October 1997 at the Harrah's Casino Hotel Reno and adjoining Hampton Inn.

The Program Committee welcomes papers on a wide variety of topics relating to OPERATIONAL meteorology, hydrology, weather broadcasting and related activities.

The meeting agenda will consist of oral presentations, poster sessions, training workshops, exhibits and panel discussions. Special training workshop sessions oriented to media weathercasters will be scheduled for 19 October 1997. As always, all sessions will be open to everyone.

Individual authors and agencies wishing to make presentations or lead workshops should please submit one page abstracts by 1 July 1997 to the Program Co-Chairpersons, John Jannuzzi and David Billingsley at:
National Weather Service Forecast Office
3833 South Development Ave Bldg 3807
Boise, Idaho 83705-5354
Tel: (208) 334-9861
FAX: (208) 334-1660
e-mail: John.Jannuzzi@noaa.gov

Submissions by e-mail are encouraged; submissions by regular mail should include a copy on floppy disk. Please indicate your desire for poster, oral or workshop session and include a mailing address, phone number, e-mail address, and a list of required audio-visual equipment. A special effort will be made to accommodate all submissions. Notification of abstract acceptance will be sent to all respondents by 15 August 1997.

To assist with the Weathercaster Workshop program, please contact: John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines IA, (515) 247-8851; e-mail: johnmc49@ecity.net

For information on exhibits, contact the NWA office Tel/FAX: (334) 213-0388; NatWeaAsoc@aol.com

Additional information regarding transportation, and pre-registration will be available in future Newsletters.

A block of rooms has been reserved at the Hampton Inn at Harrah's Reno, 175 East Second Street, Reno, Nevada. NWA attendee rates for a deluxe double or deluxe king room are: $69 for Saturday night and $55 Sunday through Friday nights. Rates include complimentary breakfast and airport shuttle. Call in reservations to 1-800-367-9544 by 19 September 1997 and mention the National Weather Association Annual Meeting.

LOCAL CHAPTER NEWS

SEVERE STORMS AND DOPPLER RADAR CONFERENCE A HUGE SUCCESS

The official tally was 218 meteorologists, weathercasters and storm spotters converging in Des Moines, Iowa, 14-16 March for the first annual Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference sponsored by the Central Iowa Chapter of the NWA. Thirty (30) states and three (3) Canadian provinces were represented in Iowa!

The conference proved an exceptional opportunity for meteorologists from the National Weather Service and television and radio stations to work together in a cooperative spirit. Organizer John McLaughlin hopes that cooperation between government and broadcast meteorologists will continue and grow into the severe weather season.

Activities began Friday evening March 14th with an informal "storm chase video" session. Some of the nation's most well-known storm chasers and researchers showed clips of recent encounters with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Conference attendees also enjoyed a complimentary NWA hospitality suite Friday evening.

Saturday the 15th of March was a very full day for conference attendees with sessions beginning at 8:30 a.m. and running until almost midnight. The quality of presentations was exceptionally high with meteorologists from the National Severe Storms Lab and the WSR-88D Operational Support Facility providing the latest severe storms and Doppler radar research. Well-known meteorologist and storm chaser Alan Moller kept the audience on the edge of their seats during his three-hour workshop on severe storm structure and visual identification of severe storm features. The workshop was of considerable value to a number of volunteer storm spotters who work with NWS offices around the country. Saturday evening featured a special session for broadcasters including a talk by Les Lemon, and a radar warning workshop conducted by John McLaughlin of KCCI-TV and Jim Belles, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the Grand Forks, ND, NWS office. The broadcasters in the workshop did an excellent job in determining when warnings should be issued and they learned how difficult the job of interpreting radar data can be during the "heat of battle!"

Chuck Doswell had the crowd doing some serious map analysis on Sunday the 16th as he donned his cowboy hat and launched into a flash flood forecasting workshop. Dr. Doswell stressed the importance of keeping analysis skills razor sharp so that forecasters are ready for a potentially deadly flash flood event. The key, said Doswell, is hand analyzing maps every single day, even the slow days when nothing significant is going on. In addition to the workshops, two-dozen papers related to severe weather, Doppler radar and hydrometeorology were presented.

The Iowa conference received excellent corporate support. Baron Services not only displayed their Doppler radar and storm tracking equipment, but registered their entire sales force for the radar workshops. Kavouras displayed the latest computer software for broadcasters. Des Moines' own Freese-Notis Inc. showed off an outstanding low-cost program for downloading WSR-88D data for just ten dollars a month. Weather Central was on hand with the Genesis. Tim Vasquez released a program called Sky-Access which automatically downloads your favorite weather charts and radar images from the Internet.

Tim Marshall sold subscriptions to Storm Track and WideSpread Weather Services was on hand with severe weather statements via alphanumeric pagers. Local Internet provider JTM Multimedia had a computer "on-line" to check the latest weather conditions via the Iowa NWA home page. KCCI-TV had a radar display featuring wireless distribution of radar data to emergency managers and public safety officials. Additional support for the conference came in the form of donations from Chaston Scientific Inc., Weather Scratch Meteorological Services, The Tornado Project, CE Software, Weather Graphics Technologies and Environmental Research Services.

The Central Iowa NWA offers a big thanks to all who attended our first gathering and the sponsors which allowed us to put this conference on at minimal cost to attendees. Also thanks to chapter members for their assistance in organizing this large undertaking. Due to the positive response, a similar event will be planned for 1998. Papers submitted at the 1997 conference will be posted to the Iowa NWA home page as soon as possible at http://www.ecity.net/~iowanwa/
- John McLaughlin, Chapter President

Central Oklahoma Chapter of the NWA held a dinner meeting on 20 February 1997 at the Holiday Inn in Norman, Oklahoma. Forty-six members and guests attended and an additional seven came to hear the speaker.

During the brief business meeting, President Kit Wagner thanked Program Committee member Jim Keeney for making all of the arrangements for the dinner. Dave Schultz, chair of the new Science Fair Committee, moved that we purchase six NOAA weather radios and that the first and second-place weather-related winners at the upcoming Oklahoma City Regional, East Central Regional and State Science and Engineering Fairs be given a choice of a weather radio or a one-year subscription to Weatherwise magazine; the motion passed. Treasurer Charlie Crisp reported the Chapter now has 128 members.

Vice President Fred Carr introduced Dr. Don Wyckoff of the Oklahoma Archeological Survey as the speaker for the evening. Dr. Wyckoff gave a slide presentation on habitation in Oklahoma before, during and after the most recent ice age (19,000 years ago). He discussed evidence that not only animals, such as mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, American lions, bison, camels and horses, but also humans were roaming the present-day State more than 10,000 years ago. His research suggests that the extinction of these animals 10,500-11,500 years ago was not due to humans killing them, but rather due to a prolonged period of dry conditions.

The Chapter also met on 6 March 1997 with about 40 attending. Following a social period, President Kit Wagner welcomed everyone to the meeting at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman. The President read a report from Dave Schultz, chair of the Science Fair Committee. Dave Schultz and Bob Hamilton judged the Oklahoma City Regional Science and Engineering Fair on 5 March at the Omniplex. There was one winning project: "The Relationship Between Precipitation and Creek Flow" by Maya Johnson and Kimberly Anderson, eighth graders at Crutcho Junior High School in Oklahoma City. Both students received a NOAA weather radio on behalf of the Chapter.

For this meeting's Organization Highlight, Vice President Fred Carr introduced Dr. Jeff Kimpel, the new Director of the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), who gave a brief overview of the organization. Currently, 127 people work at NSSL, with 53 being Federal employees and most of the remaining 74 being employees of the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies. Dr. Kimpel mentioned some of the honors that have recently been bestowed upon Lab employees, including the Department of Commerce Gold Medal that was presented for the first time to an entire laboratory.

Vice President Carr then introduced Dr. Allan Murphy of Prediction and Evaluation Systems in Corvallis, OR (also Professor Emeritus at Oregon State University) who spoke on "The Finley Affair". In 1884, Sgt. John P. Finley of the U.S. Army Signal Corps published verification statistics for an experimental tornado forecasting program. His results attracted immediate attention and, during the next 9 years, stimulated the first substantive developments related to forecast verification. Out of "The Finley Affair" came the initial developments of verification measures that have been rediscovered in more recent years under names such as critical success index, threat score, Kuiper's performance index, and Heidke's skill score. Dr. Murphy emphasized that a high quality forecast requires diagnostic, real-time verification that may be more difficult to produce than the forecast itself.

The chapter's Web page is linked through the NWA home page.
- Rodger A. Brown, Secretary

The Siouxland Weather MINDS Chapter begins their third year, reports President Larry Browning in the Feb 1997 Weather Minds Newsletter. Julia Vetter is now Vice President. Tim Masters is Secretary and Art Umland, Treasurer. Mike Dircksen is newsletter editor and Bryan Ruby oversees the home page. President Browning indicated that the chapter efforts made an impact in a number of ways especially in contributing to weather awareness and education in the region. He reminded members that an important way to contribute to education is by judging at the regional science fairs. This would be a main topic for discussion at their next meeting.

FEATURED NWA COUNCIL MEMBER

Carolyn M. Kloth is an operational meteorologist at the NWS NCEP Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, MO. Carolyn specializes in forecasting thunderstorms that may adversely affect aviation operations. On occasion, she is also cross-utilized as a forecaster of non-convective aviation hazards (e.g., icing and turbulence).

Carolyn has been an aviation forecaster since late 1988. Prior to that, she spent 6 years forecasting severe thunderstorms in the (former) Severe Local Storms (SELS) Unit of the NWS National Severe Storms Forecast Center. She began her NWS career as an Intern at the Louisville, KY Forecast Office in June 1980. She has a B.S. in meteorology from Florida State University (1976) and an M.S. in meteorology from the University of Oklahoma (1980).

Carolyn holds a private pilot's license, and has been active in the aviation community giving talks on aviation weather to numerous pilot groups. She has been a member of the NWA Aviation Committee and now co-chairs that committee with Greg Thompson.

She appreciates your confidence in her abilities by selecting her for a 2-year NWA Councilor position.

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE

The 19th Annual Hurricane Conference will be held from 22-25 April 1997 at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Houston, Texas. For more information call (904) 561-1163 or visit their web site at: http://www.nettally.com/nhc. For hotel reservations call the Hyatt Regency at: (713) 654-1234.

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NDBC PROVIDES WAVE INFORMATION

The National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) has developed an experimental product providing more detailed wave information. Estimates of swell and wind-wave height, period, and direction (if measured) as well as an indicator of wave steepness are given for each hourly observation. It is available in the real-time data section of NDBC's home page at: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov. Though this can be gleaned from spectral wave bulletins, offices in areas that rarely have swells do not usually decode these messages. Surfers and the boating public have also asked for such swell information. NDBC is soliciting feedback concerning the quality and utility of this product. Please leave your comments on their home page guest book.
- David Gilhousen

NWA COMMITTEE CHAIRPERSONS for 1997
Commissioner:
Rodger A. Brown,
National Severe Storms Laboratory,
1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069;
(405) 366-0410; FAX: (405) 366-0472;
brown@nssl.noaa.gov

Aviation Meteorology Committee Co-chairpersons:

Carolyn M. Kloth,
NWS/NCEP Aviation Weather Center,
601 E 12th Street, Room 1728, Kansas City, MO 64106;
(816) 426-3427x250;
Carolyn.M.Kloth@noaa.gov

Gregory Thompson,
NCAR,
PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000;
(303) 776-9087; FAX: (303) 497-2805;
gthompsn@ncar.ucar.edu

Awards Committee:

Andrew H. Horvitz,
1108 Downs Drive, Silver Spring, MD 20904;
NWS/OM
(301) 713-1867 x125; FAX: (301) 589-1321;
Andy.Horvitz@noaa.gov

Broadcast Meteorology Committee:

Jay Prater,
WAFF-TV,
11241 Springwood Dr. SE, Huntsville, AL 35803-1741;
(205) 533-6397;
jprater@traveller.com

- Broadcaster Seal of Approval Committee:

Brad Sussman,
WEWS-TV,
3001 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44115;
(216) 431-3768; FAX: (216) 431-3666;
Bswx@aol.com

- Evaluation Board members: Jack Church, Carey Coleman, Dick Elder, Robert W. Farrell,
Karen M.B. Maginnis, Alan Sealls, Brad Sussman, Dave Sweeney,
Sandy Thomson and Dan Threlkeld.

- Seal Recertification Chairperson:

Sandra D. Thomson,
WANE-TV,
2915 W. State Blvd., Ft. Wayne, IN 46808;
(219) 424-1515

- Testing Chairperson:

Dr. Paul J. Croft,
Dept of Physics & Atmos Science, Jackson State University,
PO Box 17660, 1400 Lynch Street, Jackson, MS 39217-0460;
(601) 968- 7012;
pcroft@stallion.jsums.edu

- Public Relations Chairperson:

Scott D. Zahorik,
10380 Kennemere Lane, Parker, CO 80134-9570,
KCNC-TV
(303) 830-6329;
scott.paige@kcncnews4.com

Corporate Affairs Committee:

John A. Lasley, Jr.,
AAI/SMI,
PO Box 238, Hunt Valley, MD 21030-0238;
(410) 667-7039; FAX: (410) 667-7002;
Lasley@aaicorp.com

Education Committee:

Sol Hirsch,
3809 Clarks Lane, Suite 007, Baltimore, MD 21215;
(410) 764-6080; FAX: (410) 764-6160;
71232.2755@CompuServe.com

Home Page Advisory Committee:

Frank C. Brody,
907 Plum Falls Court, Houston, TX 77062;
NWS/SMG Johnson Space Center
(713) 483-5639;
fbrody@GP801.jsc.nasa.gov

Local Chapter Committee:

Dr. Mark S. Binkley,
Mississippi State University, Department of Geosciences,
PO Drawer 5448, Mississippi State, MS 39762-5448:
(601) 325-2908; FAX: (601) 325-2907;
Binkley@geosci.msstate.edu

Membership Committee:

Floyd F. Hauth,
3204 Allness Lane, Herndon, VA 20171-3324;
National Research Council
(202) 334-2856; FAX: (202) 334-3819;
fhauth@nas.edu

Nominating Committee:

Joseph T. Schaefer, President-Elect,
NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center,
1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069;
(405) 579-0701;
Joseph.Schaefer@noaa.gov

Remote Sensing Committee:

Frances C. Holt,
NOAA/NESDIS E/RA2,
Chief, Satellite Applications Lab,
NOAA Science Center, Room 601, Washington, DC 20233;
(301) 763-8282; FAX: (301) 763-8580;
fholt@nesdis.noaa.gov

Specialized Operational Services Committee:

Hugh G. McRandal, Jr.,
4416 Lord Loudoun Court, Upper Marlboro, MD 20772-5927;
NWS/NCEP Marine Prediction Center
(301) 763-8441;
Hugh.McRandal@noaa.gov

Strategic Planning Committee (is chaired by the immediate-past President):
Norman "Wes" Junker,
NWS NCEP HCP,
5200 Auth Rd, Rm 402, Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304;
(301) 763-8201;
Norman.Junker@noaa.gov

Training Committee:

Nancy A. Dean,
2160 Chad Lane, Eureka CA 95503-8512;
NWSFO
(707) 443-5610; FAX: (707) 443-6195;
Nancy.Dean@noaa.gov

Weather Analysis and Forecasting Committee:

Robert J. Ricks, Jr.,
71424 Poitevent Street, Abita Springs, LA 70420-3414;
NWSFO
(504) 649-0357;
Robert.Ricks@noaa.gov

National Weather Digest Co-editors:

Kenneth B. Mielke,
NOAA/NWSFO,
5324 Tri-Hill Frontage Road, Great Falls, MT 59404-4933;
(406) 453-9957; FAX: (406) 453-3812;
Ken.Mielke@noaa.gov

Captain Peter B. Roohr,
USAF, c/o Dept of Atmospheric Science, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.,
Fort Collins, CO 80523-5001;
(303) 491-8338; FAX: (303) 491-8241;
roohr@sol.cira.colostate.edu

Newsletter Co-editors:

Larry Burch,
NWS/NWSFO,
2242 W. North Temple, Salt Lake City, UT 84116;
(801) 524-5154; FAX: (801) 524-4030;
Larry.Burch@noaa.gov

Eli Jacks,
NOAA/NWS W/OM21,
1325 East West Hwy, Room 13125, Silver Spring, MD 20910;
(301) 713-1970; FAX: (301) 589-1321;
Elliott.Jacks@noaa.gov

JOB CORNER

(Ed: The NWA lists job openings free from equal opportunity employers for the benefit of members.

Also, see http://www.nwas.org or call the NWA office at (334) 213-0388 for possible short notice openings.) Commanders' Weather Corporation is looking for knowledgeable, enthusiastic operational meteorologists who want to sharpen their skills in a growing company. The successful candidate should have a bachelors degree in meteorology or atmospheric science, strong forecasting abilities, and a thorough knowledge of synoptic meteorology. In addition, Commanders' is seeking a candidate with excellent communication skills, both oral and written, along with a knowledge of PC's. Commanders' is located in Nashua, NH and is a world leader in global marine forecasting. We have a strong sailing clientele and are involved with many renowned sailors and yacht races worldwide. With additional growth in the marine industry and expansion into other forecasting markets, Commanders' is looking for individuals who want to participate and contribute to this growth. Shift work is required and the person must be available to travel both domestically and internationally. Commanders' Weather offers a competitive salary, a health plan, and other benefits including free skiing at a few of New Hampshire's major ski areas. If you are interested in a challenging opportunity to learn and grow in a professional and cordial environment, send a cover letter and resume with strong references to: Commanders' Weather Corporation, 154 Broad Street, Suite 1517, Nashua, NH 03062. FAX: (603) 882-6661; e-mail: 104477.3462@compuserve.com

Federal Contractor Seeks Weather Observers for mid-US. Dynamic Science Inc., 1821 Summit Rd., Cincinnati, Ohio 45237 Phone (513) 821-3773; Fax (513) 821-3773; e-mail: dynamic@mail.horandata.net Contact Person: Kurt Wuerfel, Regional Projects Manager DSI. Job Description: provide ASOS/AWOS augmentation, ASOS/AWOS back-up observation, and standard weather observation, maintain records, quality control for weather observations, limited aviation weather reporting, broadcast over local radio. Job Requirements: Must be able to pass FAA security check. Four-year Meteorology degree or three years experience as a weather observer, NWS certification, one or more years experience a plus, understanding of the ASOS/AWOS weather system/ hands on a plus, detail oriented, willing to work all shifts, must be willing to relocate. Federally Determined Wage Rate: Starting Rates vary by location ( $27,000 to $29,000). Supervisor/Station Manager: These positions are also needed and will be filled by the most qualified candidates. Pay = mid 30's. How to apply: Send Resume to Kurt Wuerfel at the address listed above. Note: You may call if you have any questions.

Millersville University Assistant Professor for one-year, full-time, temporary position beginning August 1997. Teach introductory meteorology courses for both majors and non-majors, environmental meteorology, atmospheric dynamics, and radar meteorology. Also must assume shared responsibility for the supervision of a UNIX-based local area network and its hardware/software components. Required: Ph.D. in meteorology or atmospheric science; evidence of effective teaching and communication skills; proficiency in the use of UNIX-based computer systems and familiarity with interactive meteorological analysis and display software; and a successful interview and teaching demonstration. Preferred: Teaching experience at the university level. Full consideration given to applications received by 5/16/97. Send letter of application, curriculum vitae, copies of all transcripts and three current letters of recommendation to: Meteorology Search / NWA411, Millersville University, P.O. Box 1002, Millersville, PA 17551-0302. An EO/AA Institution.

AccuWeather, Inc., offers career opportunities with the world's leading and most diversified commercial weather service. You will have exciting opportunities to handle all types of weather forecasting for major business, media and government organizations. These include on-air broad-casting for radio stations; creative presentation of weather graphics; preparation of television and newspaper forecasts; snow and ice warning services; worldwide forecasting for agriculture; specialized forecasts for the transportation industry, utilities, businesses and resorts; computer applications; and many others. You will work with some of the nation's leading forecast meteorologists in one of the world's largest forecast centers, interacting with a staff of 300 employees. Our state-of-the-art facility provides our 85 forecast meteorologists with tools and computer technology unavailable elsewhere. Applicants need to be articulate and productive with outstanding forecasting and communication skills. Through progressive advancement, forecasters can become on-air meteorologists in major radio markets, or become involved in computer operations, graphic design, new product development or customer relations. AccuWeather also has positions available on our computer staff for meteorologists with programming experience. AccuWeather offers competitive salaries and an extensive benefits package including health insurance, 401K and profit sharing plans, life insurance and disability income. If you are an enthusiastic, hard working forecaster interested in employment in a dynamic growing company which offers superior opportunity for advancement, send a detailed resume to David H. Dombek, Director of Forecaster Hiring, AccuWeather, Inc., 619 W. College Ave., State College PA 16801; FAX: (814) 231-0621; e mail: resume@accuwx.com

Weather Services Corporation (WSC) is one of the country's oldest and largest commercial operational meteorological services. Since 1948, it has been providing industry, government and the media with accurate, customized, worldwide weather information. The wide variety of WSC clients are located across the US, around the world and throughout cyberspace. A staff of nearly 100 professionals is supervised by AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologists. WSC is located in a new, state-of-the-art, 24-hour per day, Global Operations Center in Lexington, Massachusetts-on Boston's route 128 Technology Highway. The most important resource of WSC is their employees. Each is provided with the finest tools and the opportunity to excel in a stimulating, fast-paced, professional environment. In addition to a competitive compensation and benefits package, WSC employees can participate in the growth and success of the company through a stock ownership plan. Recent and planned growth of WSC presents opportunities for both entry-level and experienced Operational Meteorologists; Graphic Artists with PC experience - multi-lingual capabilities are a plus; Radio Broadcasters; Journalists and Producers; Systems Analysts with C in VMS and UNIX environments; Data and Telecommunications Technicians; Telemarketers; and Sales Account Executives. To apply, please send resume to: Human Resources - N895, Weather Services Corporation, 420 Bedford Street, Lexington MA 02173; FAX: (617) 676-1001; e-mail: hr@wx.com.

WeatherData, Incorporated is interested in hiring energetic, knowledgeable meteorologists who have operational forecasting as well as radar interpretation experience for Forecast/Storm Warning Meteorologist positions. This opportunity to apply your skills involves mesoscale severe storm warnings and short and long range forecasting for a diversified client base across the US. We are looking for dedicated meteorologists with excellent written and oral communication skills to become part of our dynamic, growing company. If you love weather and want to work with clients that take your work seriously, this is the opportunity for you. This position requires a bachelor's degree in meteorology or the equivalent, and at least one year of professional forecasting and radar experience. Doppler radar interpretation preferred. At WeatherData, Incorporated, meteorologists use state-of-the-art equipment to make mesoscale forecasts. Real-time analysis of GOES satellite imagery, lightning data, surface observations, wind profiler data, Mesonet data and Doppler radar data from every NEXRAD site in the country occurs every day. WeatherData offers excellent salaries, benefits, profit sharing and moving expense allowance. We also provide our associates with many opportunities for advancement and professional growth. If you are up to the challenge of forecasting and communicating weather to our clients, and would like to join our team, send a cover letter and resume to: WeatherData, Incorporated, Attn: Sharol Youngers, Manager of Business Administration, 245 N. Waco St., Suite 310, Wichita, Kansas 67202.

The Techniques Development Laboratory (TDL) of the National Weather Service is now accepting applications for co-op students who can start work at TDL in the Summer or Fall of 1997. To find out more about TDL and the co-op student program, check out our homepage at http://tgsv5.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/ or contact: Dr. Stephan B. Smith, Co-op Student Program Coordinator (301) 713-1774 x180; Stephan.Smith@noaa.gov or smith@thunder.nws.noaa.gov

WORLD'S EXPERTS PLAN GLOBAL LOCATOR SERVICE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION

Experts from around the world have agreed on a standard for locating information, whether held in libraries, data centers, or published on the Internet. This lays the foundation for a virtual library of environmental data and information that will be easily accessible on global networks. "An information locator service is useful wherever people communicate, but there is a special urgency to the worldwide sharing of environmental information," said U.S. Vice President Al Gore. "Every year, governments and others spend billions of dollars collecting and processing environmental data and related technical information. "We now hold around the world an incredible wealth of information about the Earth and its inhabitants," the Vice President said. "That information could have a profound impact on our ability to protect our environment, manage natural resources, prevent and respond to disasters, and ensure sustainable development. Unfortunately, many potential users either do not know that it exists or do not know how to access it. This initiative will make use of base standards that are so essential for people to find the environmental data and information they need." The experts are representatives to the Global Information Society initiative, which was convened at the suggestion of Vice President Gore and organized by the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, and the European Commission). The leaders of the Environment and Natural Resources Management project, which includes several other nations and organizations, are Larry Enomoto of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Eliot Christian of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). "The service standard is designed to make information easy to find", said Christian. "It is a natural complement to the World Wide Web that is such a wonderful tool for presentation. When we look for a particular piece of information, we often need to search many separate sources. We may not be satisfied with just scanning World Wide Web pages, just accepting the suggestions of one publisher, nor just being limited to information published in English. "Libraries centuries ago confronted the same problem. They held an amazing diversity of content but had to work out common agreements on how to catalog it," Christian said. "Today, librarians and citizens everywhere rely on the common formats used in library catalogs. The information locator service builds on these standards as applied to electronic networks, and is positioned to evolve along with rapid advances in information discovery and natural language processing." The standard adopted for this service is ISO 10163, known in the United States as ANSI Z39.50. This standard specifies how electronic network searches should be expressed and how results are returned. It is adaptable to all languages and supports full-text search of documents as well as very large and complex bibliographic collections. The standard does not require a central authority or master index. Just as catalogs provide a common way to search many separate libraries, anyone can create information locators independently. By applying a standard that has been widely used for many years, this initiative takes advantage of existing networks and software to access a vast array of valuable resources, including hundreds of libraries, museums, and archives worldwide--some containing as many as 35 million locator records. It also fits in with many other international and national programs focused on improved access to information, including the Government Information Locator Service being implemented in the United States and elsewhere.

A new server developed by the European Commission for this project, available on the World Wide Web at http://enrm.ceo.org, provides an example of using this standard internationally. Further information on the information locator service can be found at http://www.g7.fed.us/gils.html

Subj:	wxcaster don'ts for kevin
Date:	97-03-23 03:00:40 EST
From:	ars000@dns.colum.edu (Alan Sealls)
To:	NatWeaAsoc@aol.com

Kevin:

Regarding your idea for starting a do's/don'ts list for weathercasters I'm sure you'll get a bunch of opinions. What follows is mine in the form of a light-hearted essay that I wrote two years ago but I've hesitated to put it out in the fear that my colleagues would take it to seriously. I submit it to you to use in the Newsletter or with whatever other do's/don'ts you get...

--------------------------------------------------------------

Words of Weather                                Copyright 1995  Alan Sealls

Weatherese, weather-speak, call it what you want. The lingo lobbed by weathercasters can fall from the cloak of cliché into the realm of redundancy to perennially perpetuate poor English, and magnify a misunderstanding of science.

Since most weathercasters ad-lib, some of the misuse of English is excused. Few of us have been trained to communicate with originality. None of us has been taught how to follow a story about monkeys, babies or Elvis impersonators.

"The barometer is falling at the present time." When I hear this one I think, "If the barometer is falling why don't you catch it? Those things cost several hundred dollars."

News anchors should be charged for stealing barometers and using them in "...a barometer of leading economic indicators." Why not use thermometer or hygrometer or just plain meter?

Saying that the barometer is falling when pressure is falling, is the same as saying that the thermometer is rising when the temperature goes up.

Pressure falls when storms are lifting out or pulling off. Huh? How can a storm lift or pull itself? Have you ever pulled yourself? Don't answer that.

Weathercasters on a cable weather station announce, "These storms are moving on off to the..." Well, which is it? Are the storms moving "on" or are they moving "off" or are they moving "off on?" The next time you leave work to go home say to your boss, "I'm heading on off to my house." Delete "on", delete "off" or delete both and the phrase still conveys the same message. Let's move "on off" to a related topic.

There is a huge "mixed bag" of seasonal clichés. In the spring after you hear that "we are in store" for a good day, you are warned to "keep your eyes to the skies," since this is the "calm before the storm." The weathercasters will be "tracking the storms" which are "packing" strong winds. Following the "lazy, hazy days of summer" it's only a matter of time before the "winds of change" usher in "Jack Frost" and then "old man winter".

Some weathercasters don't know Jack...

Mild conditions may prevail in "your neck of the woods." So mild that "if you liked today you'll love tomorrow" because it will be a "carbon copy" of today. How many young people know what carbon copies are?

"Just when you thought it was over," rain "outside" means you'll see the radar. Why don't those weather people clean up that "ground clutter?" This is always a messy topic.

OK, wrap. We're done, and only 5 seconds over. Now back to the news.

This transition can be brutal. After a dramatic swing in weather you can bet your barometer one of the news anchors will quip, "What a difference a day makes!" When the forecast is for a change for the worse expect to hear Aaron Anchor remark, "I guess we'll have to enjoy it while we can." This is only topped by Angie Anchor's query, "Can't you do something about this?" Of course, the same way newscasters can change the news! "...talk about adding insult to injury."

Alan Sealls is a Meteorologist at WMAQ-TV, Chicago

--------------------------------------------------------------

Alan Sealls             ARS000@colum.edu
Meteorologist, WMAQ-TV, & Instructor, Columbia College, Chicago

"NOT JUST REAL TIME....BUT LIVE WEATHER DATA!"

Yaros Communications, Inc. of St. Louis, Missouri (distributor of the popular "Weatherschool" software since 1988 to nearly 2 million classrooms nationwide announces a new web product that can provide classrooms and TV stations with not only FREE weather data but LIVE weather data from its new "ViewerNET Weather Workstation" for the web. Here's how it works:

Classrooms and TV Stations with the easy-to-install one-piece weather station connected to the site's computer can continuously monitor, record, graph and now even feed "LIVE" weather data (approx. 1 reading per second) directly from the rooftop weather station to any client PC on the world wide web using YCI's FREE JAVA client software. "There's a lot of talk of real-time these days," says Ronald Yaros, YCI President, but a 40 mph gust detected by one of custom designed units from a storm at one location can be seen is automatically displayed instantly at another site using easy-to-read graphics." See it LIVE for yourself now at: http://www.yaros.com.

The company provides the data, a free JAVA (or even Netscape plug-in) to retrieve the data and, for those selecting the latest JPEP graphic, a "snapshot of the current weather WITH a video shot of the sky above!" Yaros says, "This is just a preview of more exciting innovations to come in 1997!"
Ronald Yaros
ron@www.yaros.com
Yaros Communications, Inc.
http://www.yaros.com

Postflight Mission Summary for STS-80

January 10, 1997

The Space Shuttle Columbia touched down at the NASA Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) in Florida on December 7 at 1149 UTC. This marked another record for mission duration in the Shuttle program. From launch to wheel stop on landing the mission lasted 17 days 15 hours 54 minutes. Weather was a primary factor in delaying the landing until the third landing day.

Columbia lifted on STS-80 on November 19 at 1956 UTC from the Kennedy Space Center. Launch had been scheduled for November 14, but forecasts of unacceptable weather on launch day and scheduling conflicts with the planned Atlas rocket launch caused NASA mission managers to reschedule the launch day to the 19th. Weather was a primary reason for choosing November 19 as the launch date. Launch weather was GO as well as weather at the potential abort landing sites in the US and at the Transoceanic Abort Landing sites in Spain and Morocco with the exception of Moron where cloud ceilings were below limits.

Forecasting the weather for landing proved to be a challenging task. The weather forecast remained GO up until moments before the de-orbit burn. Surface weather observations received via digital voice and telephone communications, along with Doppler radar detection of clouds, led SMG forecasters to amend the landing weather forecast to NO GO just minutes from the de-orbit burn based upon a threat of a low cloud ceiling. The NASA Flight Director at the Mission Control Center decided to "waive-off" Columbia for another landing attempt approximately one hour later. Reconnaissance reports from the astronaut piloted Shuttle Training aircraft flying around the SLF also noted an increase in low level clouds. A cloud ceiling was subsequently observed at the SLF at just seven minutes after the possible de-orbit burn time. Surrounding surface weather observations and extrapolation of low cloud trends available on the first few visible images from the GOES-8 geosynchronous weather satellite raised the possibility of low cloud ceilings for the second landing opportunity. The NASA Flight Director at the Johnson Space Center again decided to waive off this time until the following day.

Weather forced another day in orbit for the crew of Columbia on December 6. Fog was forecast to envelop the SLF for the first landing opportunity near sunrise. Visibility in fog at the SLF dropped to 1/8 mile at what would have been the first landing opportunity. Some hope remained that fog would clear off in time for the second landing opportunity at the SLF. Weather was observed NOGO at the de-orbit time so Columbia was again waived off. The fog cleared off only 29 minutes after the second landing opportunity at KSC. High winds and turbulence were forecast at Edwards Air Force Base both at the surface and aloft so the NASA Flight Director waived the Shuttle off until the following day.

Weather at KSC for the December 7 landing initially looked to be problematic. Winds at Edwards Air Force Base were, however, expected to be lighter than on December 6 and within Flight Rule limits. Fog was again anticipated for the first landing opportunity just minutes before sunrise with low cloud ceilings and showers possible for the second opportunity for a Florida landing. Data from the instrumented 500ft tower, the KSC area wind tower network, rawinsondes, and cloud cover observed on satellite imagery led to SMG's decision to remove the potential for fog and stratus from the landing weather forecast. Finally, satellite imagery, pilot reports, and lightning strike location reports were consulted to ascertain the age and opacity of a detached thunderstorm anvil which was moving in from the Gulf of Mexico into central Florida. Flight Rules require that optically opaque detached anvils less than three hours old be avoided by 20 miles to mitigate the risk of triggered lightning. Columbia and its record setting crew touched down on the first landing opportunity of the day at 1149 UTC marking the completion of the 80th Space Shuttle mission.

Tim Garner was Lead forecaster for the ascent and entry phases of STS-80. The Assistant Lead/TAL site forecaster was Karl Silverman. Cara Heist and Tim Oram acted as Lead Techniques Development Unit Meteorologists.

The SMG Web Page can be accessed at:
http://shuttle.nasa.gov/weather/smghome.html

Submitted by: Tim Garner

Ideas for capitalizing on Sky Awareness Week

As more people have become involved in Sky Awareness Week programs, they have asked for ideas to better capitalize on the event in their area. So we have prepared the following to help you foster an increased awareness of the sky, meteorology, and related sciences during this week-long sky celebration. This is now our seventh year involved in this project, and it keeps growing thanks to your interest and support. Please let us know what works (and what doesn't), so we can update this ideas package and other Sky Awareness Week materials for 1998.

We have worked hard to obtain corporate and governmental support for this celebration. The Weather Channel, SUNSOR (a provider of hand-held ultraviolet meters), Dutch Boy Paints and Polaroid Corporation have either provided materials for schools and/or publicized the event. The National Science Foundation is also working with us to link our celebration to its National Science & Technology Week activities. If you know of any organizations that might want to co-sponsor Sky Awareness Week, please let us know.

The two most important aspects of the program involve obtaining a proclamation for your state and spreading the word among potentially interested groups. In many cases, there is already a state coordinator who has obtained or is working to obtain a proclamation. A state proclamation is probably more important than a national one because of its local ownership. Some people have indicated that they wanted to obtain a city or county proclamation, as well. This is fine. It may even afford additional publicity and interest. Upon request, we can provide you the name, address, telephone number and/or e-mail address of your state coordinator. We plan to post state proclamations at our Web site so interested people can easily download them

Proclamations are free and they can provide a spark for attracting the media, education and other interest groups. Some proclamations may say very little or be rather generic. Others may play up state logos, state nicknames, or state mottoes. Some may remain focused on meteorology, while others may address environmental issues such as air pollution. This variation is expected and can be used to focus on unique state issues or themes.

We have already obtained 42 state proclamations and a proclamation from the District of Columbia since 1991. We plan to request a national presidential proclamation for 1997. We have also begun to request that state legislatures "legislate" a recurring proclamation. We will also continue to list the event in "Chase's Calendar of Events," an annual publication to which many news media people refer.

Getting the word out to educators, the media, broadcast and government meteorologists, nature centers, museums, and others involves some work. However, people that have access to media outlets (e.g., National Weather Service (NWS) and weather broadcasters) can be very helpful. This is described in more detail below. Some state coordinators have asked us to do a mass mailing to the state's area educational service centers. If you provide us mailing information (preferably including the name of the appropriate contact person), we can do this very quickly through our automated mailing program. Obviously, posting information on Web Pages and encouraging educational, media, and meteorology groups to showcase the information will significantly enhance visibility.

The following are some specific ideas for NWS, university, and broadcast meteorologists to use. Ideas for teachers, nature center staffs, families, elderly care facilities, and others are contained in a 12-page guide entitled "101 Ways to Celebrate Sky Awareness Week." This guide is available from HOW THE WEATHERWORKS.

Finally, we would appreciate feedback on the ideas we have provided here for 1997. We are contemplating marketing "cloud" bumper stickers and cloud buttons. HOW THE WEATHERWORKS now has two cloud charts available (grades K-3 and grades 3-12), as well as cloud post cards and cloud flash cards. These can be imprinted with corporate or station logos and used promotionally. We are also planning to revamp the "101 Ways..." guide into two or more versions (by age level appropriateness). And we are resurrecting our plans to obtain cloud postage stamps in time for the 200th anniversary of cloud naming in the year 2003.

You can reach us at the address and telephone number above, or at skyweek@weatherworks.com on the Internet. We will post updated Sky Awareness Week information on our home page (http://www.weatherworks.com). You may feel free to download and use the information from our Web site for use in your Sky Awareness Week related activities. Appropriate credit should be given for any materials used.

NWS meteorologists

  Barbara G. Levine                         H. Michael Mogil
      Teacher                     	            Meteorologist

******


-- 

Mike Mogil
weather educator
HOW THE WEATHERWORKS
1522 Baylor Avenue
Rockville, MD 20850
301-762-SNOW

   
 rom:    Brad Case 
Subject: SKYWARN Training (spring must be just around the corner)

Taylor County Texas (Abilene) and the NWA, Theta Chapter present

THE ANNUAL SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER TRAINING SESSION WHICH  WILL BE
HELD ON FEBRUARY 8, 1996 FROM 9:00 A.M. - 3:00 P.M. AT ABILENE
CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY, CAMPUS CENTER, HILTON ROOM (JUST WEST OF NORTH
JUDGE ELY BLVD & AMBLER AVENUE -STATE HIGHWAY 351).  PRESENTATIONS BY
ABILENE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND TALKS BY LOCAL TV STATION
METEOROLOGISTS.  CONDUCTED BY METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE SAN ANGELO
NEXRAD OFFICE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER ASSOCIATION
AND, LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENTS, AND THE AMATEUR RADIO EMERGENCY SERVICE.

Brad Case - bcase@camalott.com
http://camalott.com/~nwa
Taylor Co ARES, Assistant EC
ABI 147.76 Repeater



regarding a call 
>    for papers for the joint meeting of the 50th annual Flight Safety
>    Foundation Air Safety Seminar; 27th international conference of the 
>    International Federation of Airworthiness; and IATA.
>
>    It is slated to be held November 4-6, 1997, in Washington DC, and one 
>    of the major areas is called Flight Environment where desired subjects 
>    include the following:
>
>     - Icing Standards
>     - Severe Weather Events
>     - Operations in severe icing conditions 
>     - Volcanic Ash
>     - Wind Shear
>
>    Fifty to one hundred word abstracts should be sent, along with
>    the following information, to the address shown below by March 18,
>    1997.  Papers will be selected by May 30, 1997.  If you are interested 
>    in getting a copy of the full call for papers announcement, it would
>    also be available from the same address. 
>
>    Robert H. Vandel, Director of Technical Projects 
>    Flight Safety Foundation
>    601 Madison Street, Suite 300
>    Alexandria, VA  22314
>    703-739-6700 x110
>    703-739-6708 (FAX)
>
>    Information to be included:
>  -  Author Name
>  -  Paper Title
>  -  Organization
>  -  Position
>  -  Full Mailing Address
>  -  Phone and FAX Numbers
>  -  Estimated Time of Presentation
>  -  Sign and Date Submission Agreeing to the Following: 
>
>   A transfer of copyright to the Foundation is required for each paper
>    selected for presentation at the seminar.  Submittal of an abstract or 
>    paper implies agreement that the author shall transfer copyright to the 
>    Foundation.  In the interest of aviation safety, the Foundation allows 
>    authors and the public, without fees or permissions, to reprint the
>    seminar papers in whole or in part, with appropriate credits. 
>
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
    Lynn Sherretz             sherretz@fsl.noaa.gov 
    R/E/FS5                                  
    325 Broadway              Forecast Systems Laboratory
    Boulder, CO 80303         National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
 

  From WX-TALK:

  (Most of this info is confirmed from other sources)

  Date:    Tue, 18 Mar 1997 05:36:25 -0600
  From:    "Gilbert L. Sebenste" 
  Subject: Tropical Prediction Center cutbacks

  SPC isn't the only one facing cutbacks. Check this out...


       Hurricane staff about to be slashed
       story can be found on the Internet at:

       http://www.sun-sentinel.com/head1.htm


       By MICHAEL CABBAGE Staff Writer
             More tropical storms and fewer forecasters to watch them could
       be a recipe for disaster this summer, say meteorologists at Miami's
       National Hurricane Center.
             Under  a  tentative  National  Weather  Service  budget  being
  debated
       in Washington, the center's forecasters and support staff would be
       slashed from 41 to 34 by mid-July.
             The cuts would come in the midst of what some experts are
       predicting will be an unusually fierce hurricane season.
             Last  year  forecasters  predicted  that  more tropical storms
  would
       form during the 1997 season than in any recent year.
             Five currently vacant positions would not be filled. Two other
       full-time employees would be terminated, along with four part-time
       interns who answer phones and do clerical work.
             ''This is dire,'' said Jerry Jarrell, the hurricane center's
       deputy director. ''We'll be down almost 20 percent (in staff) from
       where we were at the start of the last hurricane season.''
             The threat of job cuts has loomed over the hurricane center
       since October, when the federal government's current fiscal year
       began. National Weather Service officials were told to cut $27.5
       million to reduce the agency's budget to $460 million.
             Although  the  fiscal  year  is almost half over, no cuts have
  been
       made,  mainly  because  of  congressional  infighting by legislators
  trying
       to preserve their states' jobs and facilities.
             Much  of  the  opposition  has come from the Texas delegation,
  which
       is trying to prevent the closing of the weather service's Southern
       Regional Headquarters in Fort Worth.
             ''The magnitude of the cut has had a lot to do with how long
       it's taking,'' said Randee Exler, a spokeswoman for the National
       Weather  Service  in  Washington. ''We want to take our time to have
  the
       least impact on our daily operations.''
             The National Weather Service's Washington headquarters has
       refused to discuss details of the pending cuts, but field offices,
       leaders of the Weather Service's employees union and legislators
       involved in the budget negotiations confirmed the figures on Friday.
             Under  the  current  proposal,  137  Weather Service positions
  would
       be eliminated nationwide. Except for the cuts at the National
       Hurricane  Center,  no  jobs  are  expected  to  be  lost at Miami's
  National
       Weather Service office.
             Employees  at  the  National  Hurricane  Center  say morale is
  sinking
       while workers wait for official word.
             The  announcement,  originally  scheduled for January, may not
  come
       until the end of March.
             ''The anxiety of not knowing when the cuts will come or how
       extensive  they  will  be  is  like having our heads on the chopping
  block,
       waiting  for  the  ax  to  drop,''  said  Bob  Ebaugh, the hurricane
  center's
       union steward.
             If  the  cuts  take  effect  as proposed, the hurricane center
  likely
       will be staffed by only one person at night versus four in previous
       years.
             That individual's main responsibility will be aviation
       forecasting.
             If a hurricane threatens, employees will be paid overtime to
       staff the center at night as needed.
             ''The thing that concerns me is that we'll have a lot of tired
       people and we'll be stretching them thin,'' Jarrell said. ''When you
       stretch  people thin, they make mistakes. We'll get away with it for
  so
       long, but the big fear is that sooner or later, there will be
       something we'll miss.''
             Officials at the Commerce Department, the federal agency that
       oversees the Weather Service, say recent modernization of equipment
       will help reduce the need for staff. But some members of Florida's
       congressional delegation are warning against too many layoffs.
             ''We're starting to get the kind of technology that allows a
       smaller  staff,''  said  state  Rep.  Mark Foley, R-West Palm Beach.
  ''But
       I wouldn't want to fly in an airplane with only one pilot. You need
       more than one person when life and safety are at issue.''
             Some critics of the proposed cuts blame the elimination of the
       $3 million federal farm forecast for leaving Florida farmers
       unprepared for a winter freeze that killed $300 million in crops.
             Others  claim  residents of recently swamped communities along
  the
       Ohio  River  could  have  received  flood  warnings  up to six hours
  earlier
       if not for staff reductions there.
             ''Machines can't do this job,'' Jarrell said. ''They're a
       tremendous help, but in the final analysis, we need people making
       judgments.''

       Copyright  c  1997, Sun-Sentinel Company, Digital City South Florida
  and
       South Florida Interactive, Inc.

  ------------------------------

  Date:    Tue, 18 Mar 1997 08:56:17 -0500
  From:    Robert P Dale 
  Subject: GAO report on GOES future...

  Weather Satellites: Planning for the Geostationary Operational

  Environmental Satellite Program Needs More Attention (Chapter Report,

  03/13/97, GAO/AIMD-97-37).


  Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the National Oceanic

  and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) management of the Geostationary

  Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Program, focusing on: (1)

  NOAA's strategy for procuring satellites in the GOES continuation

  series; (2) what steps NOAA should be taking now to prepare for the
  next

  generation series of satellites; and (3) whether the potential exists

  for improving the system and reducing costs in the long term.


  GAO noted that: (1) based on the best available analysis, the potential

  for a gap in geostationary satellite coverage will be significant in
  the

  early years of the next century if procurement of new satellites does

  not begin soon; (2) to prevent this problem, NOAA plans to
  competitively

  procure two to four continuation series spacecraft that will carry the
  same meteorological instruments as the current spacecraft and

  incorporate modest technical improvements; (3) the satellites are

  planned for launch beginning in 2002; (4) given the importance of

  maintaining continuous geostationary weather coverage, NOAA's plans are

  reasonable; (5) however, there are inherent difficulties in determining

  exactly when and how many of the continuation series spacecraft will be

  needed; (6) despite these difficulties, GAO identified several specific

  shortcomings in NOAA's spacecraft planning process that, if remedied,

  could improve planning in the future; (7) based on the President's

  fiscal year (FY) 1998 budget, NOAA does not plan to begin a follow-on

  GOES program until FY 2003 at the earliest; (8) given that the

  opportunity now exists to consider alternatives for a follow-on system,

  current usage of GOES data by weather forecasters suggests that a

  reexamination of the GOES satellite architecture is warranted; (9)

  before a decision can be made about what kind of follow-on satellite

  system to build, an updated analysis of user needs must be completed;

  (10) several new approaches and technologies for geostationary
  satellite

  meteorology have been suggested in recent years by government,
  academic,

  and industry experts, however, identifying and evaluating the full
  range

  of options will require thorough engineering analysis; (11) in
  addition,

  past NOAA experience shows that developing new technologies is done
  most

  efficiently as a separate line of effort, outside of the operational

  satellite program; (12) such an effort would benefit from greater
  collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration,

  whose expertise and support have, in the past, significantly
  contributed

  to the development of NOAA's weather satellite systems; (13) the longer

  that NOAA continues without actively considering other options for a

  future system, the more it risks having to procure additional

  continuation series satellites, because the availability date for a

  fully developed new satellite system will slip farther into the
  future;*


  ... Full report available from GAO web site...


  Rob

  ------------------------------

  Date:    Tue, 18 Mar 1997 08:54:01 -0600
  From:    "Gilbert L. Sebenste" 
  Subject: The future of US weather data

  This is the future of weather information in the US, as per the
  "Observing System White Paper", which I managed to get my hands on
  this week. Read carefully. They are recommending termination of up to 30%
  of upper air sites, pending technology to acheive this. See below.

  I  apologize  for  the duplication for those who get wx-talk and wx-chase
  via
  email, since it is rather long.

  Gilbert

  *************************************************************************
  ******
  Gilbert                                                          Sebenste
  ********
  Internet:      sebenste@geog.niu.edu         (My      opinions     only!)
  *****
  Owner      of      the      Storm      Chaser     Homepage/SCH     Canada
  ***
  URL:                         http://taiga.geog.niu.edu/chaser/chaser.html
  **
  SCH       Canada       URL:       http://taiga.geog.niu.edu/chaser/canada
  *
  THE STORM MACHINE: http://taiga.geog.niu.edu/chaser/machine/            *
  Never         rage        against        THE        STORM        MACHINE!
  *
3/6/97

  OBSERVING SYSTEM WHITE PAPER

  The Problem:
  Technical  and scientific opportunities exist that enable improvements to
  be
  made  to  the  upper-air  observing  system  in  the  next  3  -5  years.
  Additionally,
  other  drivers  include  mandated  reallocations  of  the radio frequency
  spectrum
  that will render key observing systems ineffective and pressure to reduce
  budgets which require more efficient use of our resource investments in
  existing and new observing systems technology.

  Assumptions:

  Major  system implementations require large investments and take a decade
  or
  longer.  Possible systems changes in the next 3-5 years are related to
  examining opportunities to reallocate existing observing resources and
  additional possibilities available through implementation or better cost-
  efficient use of experimental systems and the elimination of unnecessary
  redundancy. Risky development will be avoided; sound scientific
  methodology and systems considerations will be the foundation for
  implementations.

  The initial focus is on the upper air sounding system.  Surface only
  measurement systems are not addressed.

  No changes will be implemented that will degrade services.

   No major upgrades to the NOAA geostationary or polar orbiting satellites
  systems  will  take  place  in  the  next  3-5  years.  NOAA will fix the
  satellite
  system failure modes and launches will continue on the current planned
  schedules.    Defense   Meteorological  Satellite  Program  (DMSP)  polar
  satellites
  will continue operating until the stock is used up and the NOAA and DOD
  programs are converged..

  Changing the operating radio frequency of Wind Profilers is necessary now
  if they are to continue to operate.  Optimum relocation and total numbers
  remain the issues.

  Some reduction in radiosonde flights and operating locations are possible
  where alternative data sources can be brought to bear but the details
  (number, location, and strategy) are yet to be determined.

  Adaptive  strategies applied to several types of observations will evolve
  over
  the next five years but are most likely to begin with radiosondes and
  dropwindsondes (for limited seasons and weather conditions) and perhaps
  ACARS aircraft reports.

  Ground-based GPS integrated water vapor measurements will become
  available  in real-time on a national scale  in the next 3-5 years.   GPS
  Met
  will take longer.

  The continued development of models and data assimilation schemes
  necessary for effective use of the data and the conduct of extensive
  testing in critical risk areas for observing system decisions (NAOS Test
  and Evaluation) is predicated on the availability of advanced computing
  resources and staff support.

  Observing Strategy

  The types of observations and systems considered for change (See attached
  table) in the next three to five years are confined to those systems
  already in
  operational  use,  or have been  in limited operational or prototype use.
  The
  sense of the NAOS vision for the short term operational changes is:

  1. Radiosondes -

  The  backbone of the current U.S. upper air observing system is a network
  of
  108 radiosonde sites across the continental U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and
  Pacific, and selected sites in the Caribbean.  This network is used in
  conjunction with other national networks to establish an understanding of
  the
  global   and   synoptic  weather  pattern  and  provides  the  basis  for
  centralized
  numerical   weather   prediction  of  synoptic  weather  patterns.   Some
  countries,
  such as Russia, are finding it increasingly difficult to continue the
  operations of their systems.  Changes are necessary in order to meet both
  domestic and international goals.  These modifications include expected
  licensing mandates for more efficient use of radiosonde assigned
  communications frequency and the need to move to a system based upon GPS
  for radiosonde location.

  An  initial  study  on a reduced radiosonde network has suggested that it
  may
  be possible to decrease radiosonde usage by about 15 - 30 %, including
  elimination  of  about  15  radiosonde sites. This is only possible if 1)
  there is
  continued and expanded use of automated aircraft reports (ACARS) with
  humidity sensors and VAD winds from the WSR-88D, 2)Wind Profilers are
  relocated,  and  3)  use  of an Adaptive Strategy can form the basis of a
  strategy
  to  compensate  for  lost  information  during  key active meteorological
  events.
  Studies will be performed to confirm these initial results so that
  technological
  opportunities  can  be  taken  advantage  of.   With  respect to adaptive
  strategies,
  it  is  possible  to foresee reductions in cost of operations because not
  all
  radiosondes may need to be operating every day.  Instead, the decision to
  launch a balloon may depend upon the specific weather situation.  Changes
  in  technology will be required of the remaining radiosondes in their use
  of
  frequency spectrum because of government mandated changes and the
  mandates also create opportunities to improve the quality and utility of
  radiosonde soundings through GPS technology.

  Additionally, reconnaissance and research aircraft, utilizing
  dropwindsondes, have been operated for years to provide data and
  information  about  developing  hurricanes  which  threaten  the U.S. and
  coastal
  waters.   An  examination  of  the  utility  and  cost  effectiveness  of
  additional
  observations for specific areas, times,  and for special kinds of
  meteorological  conditions (unrelated to hurricanes) will be evaluated in
  an
  adaptive  environment  to  determine  their utility in improving selected
  critical
  forecasts.

  2. Satellites -

  Two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) provide
  high resolution imagery and soundings from the western Atlantic Ocean to
  the mid-Pacific Ocean.  Two Polar Operational Environmental Satellites
  (POES) provide morning and evening coverage with Advanced Very High
  Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery and soundings for NWS
  operations.  Efforts are underway to "converge" DMSP polar satellites
  operated by the U.S. military and POES systems operated by NOAA and
  replace  them  with  systems  that  will satisfy the requirements of both
  domestic
  users as well as the international community.

  No immediate (near term) major satellite systems upgrades are planned.
  Better  utilization  of  the  data  by  data  assimilation techniques and
  numerical
  prediction models and field forecasters through improved processing and
  display  packages remain the focus for the next three to five years.  The
  use
  of  high-density  satellite  winds based upon image analysis hold promise
  for
  helping  mitigate data voids, but must be validated.  The major issues to
  be
  faced includes the validation of  the value of the GOES sounders on the
  current  operational  satellite series, and the impacts of the direct use
  of
  radiances in the models.

  Assessments  are also being carried out to determine the requirements for
  the
  next major satellite system changes to the GOES system in the 2005 time
  frame.    The  polar  system will be the result of the convergence of the
  NOAA
  polar  satellites  and  the DMSP.  It is also expected that the Europeans
  will
  share the current U.S. cost burden of operating two polar satellites.  At
  first this will occur with European launch vehicles and our instrument
  packages but later the Europeans will also provide their own instruments.

  3. Automated Aircraft Reporting Systems -

  A limited but quickly growing number of wind and temperature
  measurements  from  instrumented  commercial  aircraft  are  provided  by
  several
  air carriers through Aircraft Communications, Addressing and Reporting
  System  (ACARS),  on  a  volunteer  basis, and Aircraft-to Satellite Data
  Relay
  (ASDAR).  About 20 ASDAR-equipped aircraft  are operating globally
  taking hundreds of en route observations per day.  Many more aircraft are
  reporting through ARINC yielding thousands of observations daily. These
  aircraft are landing at the major airport hubs in many areas of the
  continental U.S.

  Automated aircraft reports through ARINC are currently being provided by
  several airlines to NOAA/NWS for its operation for the cost of the
  communication   link.    NOAA   must   move  to  assure  the  operational
  availability
  and cost effectiveness of ACARS data in its operations.   More extensive
  data coverage and more frequent reporting during takeoff and landings are
  needed   through   an   increased   number   of  participating  airlines,
  particularly if
  ACARS  is  to  serve  an  increased  role  as radiosonde sites decline in
  numbers.
  Actually,  data counts of ACARS ascent/descent data will likely be one of
  the
  prime determinants of potential radiosonde locations to be eliminated.  A
  mechanism  to  assure  long  term funding for data acquisition costs must
  also
  be put in place to operate and maintain the ACARS system and an
  examination  of  the Aviation Trust Fund for such a purpose is warranted.
  It

Due to its size, this text item will be continued in the next text item.

  may be an acceptable proposition to NOAA, FAA, and the airlines that
  credits  would accrue to individual airlines who contribute ACARS data to
  the
  operational weather database to provide continued or expanded access to
  critically important information.  In Canada, similar efforts are ongoing
  to
  acquire and share data from Canadian airlines.

  A prototype humidity sensor (WVSS), which has promise for providing
  moisture  measurements  never  before available from commercial aircraft,
  has
  been under development by the FAA and NOAA.  Certification has been
  accomplished for 757 aircraft, and funding exists for a limited number of
  systems (approx. 60).  Funds are being sought for up to 154 more with a
  goal  of  instrumenting  10%  of  the  US  aircraft  fleet  (approx.  450
  aircraft).
  Certifications of Boeing 737, 767, and 777 will be sought for a national
  demonstration project.   Studies will be performed to determine model and
  forecaster  impacts.   This  sensor can potentially provide moisture data
  not
  available  from  current  ACARS  systems  and  is  crucial to offset lost
  moisture
  measurements from any reductions in the radiosonde network.

  4. Radars -

  A national network of 153 WSR-88D Doppler weather radars is nearing
  completion and provides essential information on the existence, location,
  and
  intensity  of  severe  weather  and   precipitation  in  general.    When
  sufficient
  reflectivity exists the Doppler capability of the WSR-88D can be used to
  generate estimates of winds at a limited number of altitudes within the
  atmospheric  boundary  layer.  While these "wind"observations are limited
  to
  certain meteorological situations, seasons and elevations when there are
  "targets of opportunity," nonetheless, these observations can enhance the
  composite wind set available over the continental U.S. used in numerical
  weather prediction at some locations. Field forecasters are using these
  observations directly.  Significant upgrades to the operational WSR-88D
  system should be considered, conversion to dual polarization schemes (so
  that the resultant "wind" provided is not just the radial component), and
  replacement of processors and other equipment needing refurbishment.

  Additionally, the use of Terminal Doppler Warning radars (TDWR) at 41
  U.S.  sites,  offers  the  possibility of enlarged datasets for numerical
  models
  and   operational  backup,   and  needs  to  be  further  examined.   The
  organization
  of several different radar operations within the U.S. needs examining and
  the
  development of a long term acquisition and communications architecture is
  underway.  Canada is also in the process of establishing a network of
  Doppler  radars  (15)  along  its southern tier through conversion of its
  existing
  radars.   The  overall  radar network for North America will benefit from
  those
  deployments and it is expected that data exchanges will be mutually
  beneficial, especially those including radial winds on a national scale.
  Still, while incredibly useful, radars cannot provide all measurement
  necessary alone; they will not provide humidity measurements and these
  will be required from other sources and their siting limits their use at
  certain locations.

  Tropospheric  Wind  Profilers currently operate quasi-operationally at 30
  US
  sites and are used in numerical models and directly by forecasters.  The
  quality and value of these observations have been assessed (August 1994
  Report) and found to be important for a variety of meteorological uses.
  Because of pressures from the commercial sector continued operations are
  dependent upon moving to an NTIA directed operational frequency at 449
  MHZ rather than the 404 MHZ experimental frequency currently used.  In
  addition,  studies will be carried out to determine the optimum locations
  of
  the 30 NOAA systems to offset the loss of data due to the reduction of
  radiosondes,  and  to determine the total number of profilers appropriate
  for a
  national   composite   observing   network  that  can  support  mesoscale
  prediction.
  Profiler systems must have their operating frequency modified prior to
  relocation to comply with the current operating license.

  Attendantly, Radio-Acoustic Sounding Systems (RASS) operate with Wind
  Profilers   at   a  dozen   locations.   These  systems  measure  virtual
  temperature
  profiles  in  the boundary layer.  Studies must be performed to determine
  the
  contribution to the observing system and how many may be required
  nationally.  One existing drawback of such systems is the noise generated
  in
  their operation.

  Boundary  layer profilers operated by other federal and state agencies in
  a
  limited number of locations need examination for their utility to
  forecasting.
  Acquisition of the data and assessments will be pursued in the next 3-5
  years.

  5. Global Positioning System (GPS)

  The implementation of the GPS for navigation and time transfer offers two
  potential opportunities to measure elements of the atmosphere's
  thermodynamic  and  constituent  structure.   The  first  of  these  uses
  low-cost
  GPS receivers or no-cost "Other Agency" receivers on the ground to
  continuously measure the propagation delays of the GPS signal due to
  variations  in  tropospheric  water  vapor  under all weather conditions.
  These
  delays are readily converted to estimates of total precipitable water
  vapor, the
  depth  of  water  that  would  be realized if all the vapor in a vertical
  column
  were  condensed.   The  estimates  will  be   available  in real-time  at
  sub-hourly
  frequency  and  with  accuracy  better than 1 mm.  Data from a network of
  such
  sites will be assimilated into NWP models with the goal of  improving
  precipitation  forecast  accuracy.   The  same  data  can  calibrate  and
  validate
  other systems such as satellite radiometers and provide information about
  the
  ionosphere for space weather activities.  Even so, surface meteorological
  observations  at  each  GPS  site  will  be  required, but when receivers
  deployed
  by other federal agencies are incorporated into the network, large area
  coverage is possible over the U.S. at very low cost to NOAA..

  These GPS ground-based systems which provide integrated precipitable
  water  data  are  currently  being  examined  in  a research environment.
  Studies
  must be performed to examine the impact of this data set upon other
  conventional composite observing systems.

  GPS Met, the second opportunity, is discussed below in the longer term
  plans.

  Longer Range Evolution of the Upper Air Observing
  System (>5 yrs)

  All system enhancements identified in the near term address
  synoptic or larger scale meteorological problems.
  Improvements to warning and forecast services are ultimately
  dependent upon observing and predicting  the finer scales of
  motion of the atmosphere. In this extended time frame, changes
  to the observing system will begin to address extending our
  measurement system downscale.  Also technology
  developments over the last few years offer exciting possibilities
  for improving the quality, cost effectiveness, sampling,
  coverage, frequency, and the overall operational utility of our
  atmospheric observing capabilities. Data assimilation and
  numerical weather prediction techniques and access to increased
  computational power will also need to advance to do
  operational numerical weather prediction at resolutions and
  accuracies not currently available and improve the utility of
  forecasts to the public.  The most promising long term are:

  Operational Network of Wind Profilers - The results of the
  NAOS design for a composite observing system will answer the
  question about the utility and the total number of wind profilers
  required over the continental U.S.  Further actions may be
  required to relocate the 30 systems now in place, and possibly
  add additional systems,  and establish a fully operational
  national network consistent with higher resolution wind
  measurements in time and space than currently available.  If
  their worth is established, the RASS systems could also be
  considered for operational deployment.

  Major changes to Polar and Geostationary Satellites - Major
  changes are expected in satellite sensor systems after 2005.
  Most important are improvements to the imager to support both
  global and local imaging simultaneously and new sounders (IR,
  microwave, wind-profiling (lidar) sensor) for both
  geosynchronous and polar orbits).

  Dropwindsondes can be deployed by delivery systems
  (Unmanned Aeronautical Vehicles) to operate on a wider scale
  than current hurricane reconnaissance.  These drones are
  lightweight, remotely controlled aircraft that can remain
  airborne from a few days to a week. They can be used either
  for in-situ observations of wind, temperature, moisture, and
  pressure along the flight path (which could include planned
  descents and ascents for soundings) or to deploy lightweight
  dropwindsondes into otherwise unobserved remote locations.
  Although the quality of the data from these systems should be
  excellent the cost of the observations may be high and, of
  course, are subject to FAA approval of operation along flight
  routes.

  GPS-Met Techniques - A second GPS approach uses GPS
  receivers aboard satellites in low orbits to monitor the signals
  generated by the constellation of Navstar GPS satellites in
  higher orbits as they are occluded by the earth's horizon.  This
  technique will generate about 500 occultations and vertical
  profilers of refractivity globally for each satellite per day.  It is
  anticipated that the accuracy of the system will be at least
  comparable with that of any other space-based measurements,
  with the advantage that the data are unaffected by clouds.
  While GPS-Met can currently provide profiles reliably only
  above 500 mb, this capability can be improved if the signal to
  noise ratio is better in the lower troposphere.  In any case,
  GPS-Met offers the possibility of good temperature profiles
  over the oceans and over remote land areas for at least the
  upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.

  The use of GPS-IPW measurements to complement these
  sensors under adverse observing conditions will be evaluated
  but they are limited to provide observations only over land.

  Ground-based Doppler Lidar - Although used for research
  purposes, lidar has not yet demonstrated its operational
  capability.  Doppler lidar clearly has the potential to produce
  wind profiles (including the vertical component) at unstaffed
  land sites with accuracies, vertical resolution, and reliability of
  operationally useful quality many times each hour from just
  above the surface of the earth to cloud base height, or, in the
  absence of clouds, until limited by signal-to-noise
  considerations.  Lidar, however,  is strongly attenuated by fog,
  rain, and snow, thus limiting its utility.


  HOW TO GET THERE - NAOS Overview:

  The clear need is for a scientific and technical management
  mechanism to address key questions about observing systems
  which will be faced for the foreseeable future.  A mechanism
  needs to be institutionalized and available to provide sound
  advice to senior management about large scale, long term, and
  costly decisions about the choices among observing systems.
  Questions such as: What is the minimum number of radiosonde
  network locations, when used in conjunction with other data in
  an integrated way, necessary to provide a consistent high
  quality understanding of the weather pattern over North
  America?  What role will automated aircraft reports, WSR-88D
  derived winds, and wind profilers, play in such an integrated
  system? When and what should be the changes made to satellite
  systems?  What new sensors should be deployed operationally
  to reduce cost and improve performance of the composite
  observing system?  These and other questions need attention to
  make it possible to continue to operate and shape our observing
  systems in both the near and long term.

  The North American Atmospheric Observing System (NAOS)
  Program is a cooperative program supported by governmental
  organizations and universities in Canada, Mexico and the
  United States.  Its purpose is to make recommendations on the
  configuration of the upper air observing program in those three
  countries and adjacent water areas which would meet societal
  needs in the coming few decades.  The main thrusts are (1) a
  scientific evaluation program focused on, but not limited to, the
  value of various combinations of observing systems to
  Numerical Weather Prediction, and (2) an assessment of the
  operational, financial and organizational implications of
  configurations based on the results of the scientific
  evaluations.  NAOS is key to determining the "best mix" of
  observing systems to management but requires sufficient
  resources to carry out its work.

  The main results of NAOS will be a series of recommendations
  made to senior management on the composite observing system
  for the 21st Century (COS-21).   These recommendations will
  be directed at (1) those steps which can be taken in the short-
  term to improve the utility of existing systems and to reduce
  costs, (2) the design of the most cost-effective mix of systems
  for the COS-21, and (3) how to implement the COS-21 starting
  from the present configuration, being sensitive to needs other
  than weather forecasting.  Information and results from both
  the scientific evaluations and operational assessments will be
  made available generally through an outreach program which
  will include scientific and technical journals and meetings,
  workshops, directed briefings, and  the Internet.

  A Council has already been established, a Program Plan
  completed, and Implementation, Outreach, and Societal Impact
  Plans are under development.  Work Plans for test and
  evaluation and system studies have been proposed and
  approved by the NAOS Council.  Significant out-of-hide
  resources are currently directed at achieving early results
  focused on the details of the mix of synoptic scale upper air
  systems.  Additional resources are needed.

  RECOMMENDATIONS:

  1. Provide funds for replacing current radiosondes with GPS-
  based radiosondes to improve the quality of measurement and
  satisfy mandated requirements for a more communications-
  efficient system.

  2. Provide funds for conversion of the existing wind profiler
  network to a frequency of 449 MHZ to enable continued
  operation of the existing network.

  3. Provide funding to assure operational availability of
  automated aircraft reports for the NWS operational
  environment.

  4. Provide funding for the NAOS Program in FY 1999 and
  resources for increased computing support for key test and
  evaluation activities.  The long-term success of the NAOS
  Program is dependent upon the continued evolution of data
  assimilation and numerical modeling schemes.  Adequate
  resources need to be provided.

  5. Support the testing of the water vapor sensors on aircraft
  and provide funds for wider deployment if and when proven
  through systematic evaluations.

  6. Support evaluations of RASS, ground-based and space-
  based GPS techniques to determine the demonstrated value of
  them in the production of operational weather forecasting.

  7. Integrate, to the greatest extent possible, DOD and civilian
  requirements to eliminate duplication.

  The penalties of inaction include propagating operating
  inefficiencies, risking the loss of operating systems such as
  wind profilers, and perhaps even the radiosonde network.