National Weather Association

Newsletter

No. 99-8 August 1999

PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE

Working Together to Advance Weather Forecasting as an Applied Science

As former NWA president, Joe Schaefer, noted last year, it is a great time to be a meteorologist! We have an incredible amount of observational and numerical data available today to diagnose and forecast the weather for the United States. Also, as I always mention to prospective freshman, we have some of the greatest "toys" to display observations, numerical model data, profiler winds, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery. Indeed, the challenge for today’s meteorologist is not to figure out how to get more data, it is to learn how to "sip from the fire hose" of information in order to coherently assemble a diagnosis and prognosis. Furthermore, our science has more public exposure on a daily basis than almost any other (with the possible exception of medicine). The Weather Channel, CNN and local TV weather broadcasters report up-to-the-minute weather news, while the Discovery Channel, The Learning Channel, National Public Radio and Television stations and others show fantastic video of tornadoes, hurricanes and great winter storms. Look at how the public responded to news of El Niño and La Niña as they were reported ad nauseam in the press! This is all great news, but we have a lot of work to do if we are to advance meteorology as a true science.

In spite of all this media exposure, the public’s knowledge of atmospheric processes is quite meager and their understanding of basic physical principles even worse. Many of you probably have seen the video in which Harvard seniors were asked what caused the seasons. Most of those queried did not know that the seasons were due to the tilt of the earth’s axis (EOS, 9/8/98). Many people who have graduated from high school do not know how a compass works, whether a bowling ball or billiard ball will reach the ground at the same time when dropped from a building, how often the moon orbits the earth, etc. Although it can be argued that one can lead a very fulfilling life without knowing these basic scientific facts, one wonders how a person growing up these days could be so poorly schooled in the basics of science, especially in this, the so-called information age.

I believe that as professional meteorologists it is incumbent upon us to become actively involved with the public through educational programs, seminars, informal talks to church and civic groups, and discussions with grade school children to help people to become more "weatherwise".

This agenda has two goals, one of educating the public about storm safety with respect to lightning, tornadoes, flash floods, hurricanes, and winter storms, and another of elevating meteorology as a science. This effort can be accomplished through the Internet, video programs, and educational brochures, but as I noted in the last newsletter, interaction with people at public meetings and other community gatherings is the most effective way to get the message out. I would therefore urge NWA members to be ambassadors for meteorology whenever the occasion arises as part of your job or as a service to your community. Our professional duties always take precedent, but these service activities bring great dividends in terms of gaining more respect from the public for our work. In addition, they also increase peoples’ awareness of sky conditions, weather hazards, safety actions to take, and the science of meteorology.

Many of you are already taking up this challenge of being ambassadors for meteorology. I know that many of our TV and radio broadcasters regularly visit schools and civic organizations to talk about the weather and weather safety. Also, members of our local NWA chapters invite the public to their monthly meetings and make themselves available to speak at schools and public gatherings. Members of NWS offices and other weather agencies provide storm spotter training, information for severe weather awareness weeks and warning coordination. You are all setting an example and we are proud of your efforts. I have noted that many of the nominations received for the Annual NWA Awards contained write-ups of public education efforts. These kinds of activities need to be recognized and we intend to do just that at the Annual Meeting and Annual Awards Banquet.

In terms of professional activities I remind you to register now for the 24th Annual Meeting in Biloxi, Mississippi. Thanks to the many authors who submitted abstracts for presentations and workshops to the program committee. Thanks also to the invited speakers who bring a wealth of information on current and historical issues. The agenda in this Newsletter is provided to crossfeed what studies are being accomplished by others nationwide. It also provides prospective attendees information on the interesting papers, invited presentations and hands-on workshops that will make for a great conference at the Isle of Capri Crowne Plaza Resort — you can bet on it! I look forward to seeing you there. - Jim Moore

PRELIMINARY AGENDA for the National Weather Association 24th Annual Meeting, 15-22 October 1999. The Annual Meeting will be held at the Isle of Capri Crowne Plaza Resort, 151 Beach Boulevard, Biloxi, Mississippi 39530. The theme will be "Working Together to Advance Weather Forecasting as an Applied Science."

All interested individuals (NWA members, prospective members and nonmembers) are welcome to register early or on the day of your arrival to attend any and all sessions. Sessions specifically designated for the continuing education of broadcasters are open to all interested.

For Hotel, Travel, registration fees and a registration form, please see the NWA July 1999 Newsletter, NWA home page at www.nwas.org or contact the NWA office at: (334) 213-0388 or NatWeaAsoc@aol.com.

PRESENTERS please contact the program chairpersons immediately if you have to cancel or request changes. Please report to the NWA registration/information desk at the Annual Meeting Hotel well before your Session begins for instructions regarding presentation schedule, setup, poster boards (32 in. x 40 in.) and AV equipment availability. Program Co-Chairpersons are: Dr. Paul J. Croft, Jackson State University, Dept of Physics and Atmospheric Sciences, Jackson MS, (601) 968-7012, pcroft@stallion.jsums.edu; and Kevin J. Pence, Science and Operations Officer, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Calera AL, (205) 664-3010, Kevin.Pence@noaa.gov. Broadcaster Workshop Chairperson is John B. McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines IA, (515) 247-8888; johnmc49@ecity.net

Friday, 15 October 1999

8:00 AM NWA Annual Meeting registration and information desk opens at the Isle of Capri Crowne Plaza Resort convention area (outside meeting room). NWA registration and information desk will be open daily during entire Annual Meeting period.

8:30 AM NEW Doppler Radar Interpretation Workshop Leslie R. Lemon and John B. McLaughlin have teamed up to offer a two-day Doppler radar training course which will focus on operational recognition of severe convective storms using data from television station radar systems and the nation's WSR-88D network. The workshop hours will be 8:30 to 5:00 on Friday.

Saturday, 16 October 1999

8:30 AM NEW Doppler Radar Interpretation Workshop continues. The workshop hours will be 8:30 to 4:30 on Saturday.

12:00 noon Exhibit area will be available for corporate/agency exhibitors to begin setup of their booths.

4:30 PM Workshop ends. Dinner on your own. Attendees should plan on returning for the vendor briefings at 7:00 PM to learn more about the capabilities/limitations of current and future radar equipment products and services.

6:00 PM Exhibits open to all meeting attendees and guests. Corporations/agencies exhibiting will begin briefing on new products and services at 7:00 PM.

10:00 PM Exhibits close.

Sunday, 17 October 1999

24th Annual Meeting Broadcaster Workshop

8:30 AM Welcoming Remarks: Dr. James T. Moore, NWA President; David Freeman, NWA Broadcast Meteorology Committee Chairperson and John B. McLaughlin, NWA Broadcaster Workshop Committee Chairperson.8:35 AM Alaska Forecast Challenges. Robert Forgit, Broadcast Meteorologist: KTUU-TV, Anchorage, AK.

8:50 AM Catch the Barometer: Better Weathercasting Words. Alan Sealls who recently joined WKRG-TV in Mobile, Alabama, as Chief Meteorologist. Do your coworkers make excellent impressions of you doing a weathercast (or weather briefing)? Has your boss told you all your weathercasts (briefings) sound the same? Are you applying for a Seal of Approval? If yes is the answer to any of these then you need to know what MJV-VCR is. Hear Alan Sealls review dozens of overused, misused, and just plain bad weather words and phrases in this lighthearted, yet educational session.

Training Session #1

9:05 AM Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting. Dr. James T. Moore, Professor of Meteorology, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO., assisted by graduate students of the Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis Univ.

10:10 AM Coffee Break – Exhibits Open

Severe Weather Part 1: Special Session on the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado Outbreak.

10:30 AM The 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornadoes as Viewed by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Daniel McCarthy, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK.

11:00 AM Media Coverage of 3 May 1999 Tornado. Dan Threlkeld, Meteorologist, KFOR-TV Oklahoma City, OK.

11:30 AM Highway Overpasses as Tornado Shelters. Fallout from the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma/Kansas Violent Tornado Outbreak. Daniel J. Miller, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Norman, OK. Co-Authors: Charles A. Doswell III, Harold E. Brooks and Gregory J. Stumpf, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and Erik N. Rasmussen, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Boulder, CO.

12:00-1:30 PM Lunch Break

Severe Weather Part 2:

1:30 PM Severe Weather Warnings and Radar Data - What Information Should We Orally and Visually Present? Jim Stefkovich, Warning Coordinator Meteorologist, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Fort Worth, TX.

1:50 PM Discussion on Warning Psychology: How Does the Media Get the Public to Take Action? David Freeman, Chief Meteorologist, KSNW-TV, Wichita, KS.

2:40 PM Storm Team Tour: Bringing Weather Education to the Masses. Jason Parkin, Meteorologist, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA.

2:55 PM Weather Radio is Your Friend. Jay Trobec, Chief Meteorologist: KELO-TV, Sioux Falls, SD.

3:10 PM Refreshment Break

3:30 PM Refining the Zone of Maximum Tornadogenesis in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Lon Curtis, J.D., Weathercaster, KWTX-TV, Waco, TX.

3:45 PM The Media and Hurricane Coverage. Scott D. Zahorik, Meteorologist: KCNC-TV, Denver, CO.

Training Session #2

4:00 PM Water Vapor Satellite Imagery - Characteristics and Applications. Roger B. Weldon, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD.

5:00 PM Broadcaster Workshop Session ends, Exhibits close -- Dinner break

7:00 PM ANNUAL TAPE SWAP (Broadcasters and students bring a VHS tape of one or two broadcasts for discussion.)

Monday, 18 October 1999

24th Annual Meeting General Sessions

8:00 AM Welcoming Remarks: Dr. James T. Moore, NWA President and Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO.

8:15 AM Keynote speaker - CAPTAIN Donald A. Roman USN, Chief of Staff, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, MS.

Session #1: Tropical and Coastal Meteorology. Session Chair: Dr. Paul J. Croft, Annual Meeting Program Co-Chair and Professor of Meteorology, Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences and General Science, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS.

9:00 AM 1998 Hurricanes George and Mitch, Retrospective on a Deadly Season. John L. Guiney, NOAA/NWS Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL.

9:20 AM Use of Water Vapor Satellite Imagery as an Aid to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Roger B. Weldon, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD.

9:40 AM The Interannual Variability of Atlantic Basin Hurricane Intensity. Anthony R. Lupo and Grant Johnston, Dept. of Soil and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Missouri - Columbia, Columbia, MO.

10:00 AM Coffee break – Exhibits openSession #2: Tropical and Coastal Meteorology. Session Chair: Kevin J. Pence, Annual Meeting Program Co-Chair and Science and Operations Officer, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Calera, AL.

10:30 AM Invited Speaker: Severe Weather in Landfalling Hurricanes. Dr. Eugene W. McCaul, Jr., Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL.

11:00 AM Tornado Outbreak in the Middle and Upper Florida Keys Associated With Tropical Storm Mitch. Guy Rader and Jack Gross, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Miami, FL.

11:15 AM Using the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) for Nowcasting and Warnings for Tropical Cyclone Induced Tornadoes. Dr. Pat Welsh, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jacksonville, FL.

11:30 AM Storm Surge Forecasting on the Mississippi River Merging the SLOSH Output with NWSRFS. Dave Reed and Bob Stucky, NOAA/NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell, LA.

11:45 AM Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting. Rusty Pfost, Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Miami, FL.

12:00 – 1:30 PM Lunch breakSession #3: Tropical and Coastal Meteorology. Session Chair: Paul S. Trotter, Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Slidell, LA.1:30 PM The Strategic Vision for Marine Forecasting, James E. Hoke, NOAA/NWS Director, Marine Prediction Center; David M. Feit NOAA/NWS Marine Prediction Center, Chief, Marine Forecast Branch; and Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS Marine Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD.1:45 PM NWS SAFESEAS - A New Marine/Coastal Monitoring And Forecasting Capability For AWIPS. Stephan B. Smith, NOAA/NWS Office of Systems Development, Silver Spring, MD; Paul A. Hirschberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD; and James L. Partain, NOAA/NWS Marine Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD.

2:00 PM Examination of a Short Term Thunderstorm Mesohigh Induced Coastal Flood Event. Jeffrey Medlin, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Mobile, AL and David Gilhousen, NOAA/National Data Buoy Center, Stennis Space Center, MS.

2:15 PM Tools For Monitoring and Predicting Anomalously Large Waves. Jay A. Albrecht, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Seattle, WA and James L. Partain, NOAA/NWS Marine Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD.

2:30 PM The 3 March 1999 West Coast Anomalous Wave Event - Diagnosis, Coordination, and Forecast and Warning Processes. Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS Marine Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD.

2:45 PM Refreshment break

Session #4: Current Issues. Session Chair: Roderick A. Scofield, NWA President-Elect and NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD.

3:10 PM Y2K End-to-End Testing and Compliance in the National Weather Service and Y2K International Data Receipt Risk Model. Howard J. Diamond, NOAA/NWS HQS Silver Spring, MD.

3:30 PM MOS-2000: A New Era in Interpretive Weather Guidance? J. Paul Dallavalle and Mary C. Erickson, NOAA/NWS/OSD Techniques Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD.

3:45 PM New Developments on the Meteorology Education and Training (MetEd) Website. Dr. Timothy Spangler, Director of COMET; Gregory Byrd, Douglas Wesley, Julee Syverson and Dennis Ward, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO.

4:00 PM Invited Speaker: Before and After Hurricane Camille. Ms. Linda Rouse, Director, Harrison County, Mississippi, Emergency Civil Defense.

4:30 PM Introduction of 1st Poster Session, Alan E. Gerard, NWA Program Committee and Weather Analysis & Forecasting Committee Chairperson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jackson, MS.

5:00 – 7:00 PM Poster Session #1 and Icebreaker.

Poster Session I:

1. The Bird's Eye View of the 1999 Hurricane Season. Major John D. Gordon and Major Valerie Schmid, 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters, Keesler AFB, MS.

2. Secrets of the Aerial Reconnaissance Detailed (Tropical Cyclone) Vortex Data Message. Major John D. Gordon and Major Valerie Schmid, 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters, Keesler AFB, MS.

3. Variability of Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean During October. Remata S. Reddy and Vasanthi S. Budamgunta, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS.

4. An Evaluation of Recent Climatic Anomalies along the North-Central Gulf Coast. John M. Grymes, III, LSU Southern Regional Climate Center, and G. Alan Johnson and Robert J. Ricks, Jr., NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Slidell, LA.

5. An Initial Climatological Study of Severe Hail Occurrences for the County Warning Area of NWS Forecast Office New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA. Suzanne Van Cooten, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office Slidell, LA.

6. Short-Range Statistical Forecast Guidance for Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Station and East-Central Florida. Winifred C. Lambert, John Manobianco and Fred Riewe, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL.

7. Mesoscale Modeling Investigation of Convective Initiation on the Gulf Coast. Paul J. Croft, Remada S. Reddy and P. J. Fitzpatrick, Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences, and General Science, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS.

8. Satellite Analysis of Gulf Coast Atmospheric Moisture and Tropospheric Aerosols. Paul J. Croft, Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences, and General Science, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS.

9. Effect of Smoke Aerosol on Precipitation and Severe Weather in the Southeastern U.S. Frances C. Holt, NWA Remote Sensing Committee Chairperson and NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD.

10. The Annual Local Weather Technical Interchange Meetings For East Central Florida. William P. Roeder, USAF/45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB FL; David W. Sharp, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office Melbourne FL; Richard A. Lafosse, NOAA/NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group, Johnson Space Center, TX; John Manobianco, ENSCO/Applied Meteorology Group, Melbourne, FL; and Francis J. Merceret, NASA/Kennedy Space Center Weather Office, Kennedy Space Center, FL.

11. Lightning Climatologies over the Florida Peninsula for Selected Map Types. Todd P. Lericos, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; Dr. Henry E. Fuelberg, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and Andrew I. Watson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Tallahassee, FL.

12. Tornado Warning Classifications for East Central Florida. David W. Sharp, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Melbourne, FL.

13. An Analysis of Empirical Methods for Forecasting Favorable Days for Wet Microburst Production. Alan E. Gerard, Edward Agre and Chad Entremont, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jackson, MS; G. Alan Johnson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Slidell, LA; and Russell Pfost, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Miami, FL.

14. Evaluation of the Steepness Method for Separating Sea and Swell From NDBC Buoy Wave Data. Rex Hervey, Computer Sciences Corporation, Technical Services Contractor for the National Data Buoy Center, Stennis Space Center, MS.

15. Dynamic Fetch and Rapid Wave Growth. D. Scott Prosise, NOAA/NWS Marine Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD.

16. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Weather Forecasting: A Viewpoint for the Year 2000 and Beyond. Pat Welsh, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jacksonville, FL.

17. Weather Professionals as Expert Witnesses in Litigation. Lon Curtis, J.D., First Assistant District Attorney, Bell County, TX, and Weathercaster, KWTX-TV, Waco, TX.

18. Operational Implications of Bad Upper-Air Data: Elevated Convection in Central Oklahoma on 22 March 1999. Daniel J. Miller and David Andra, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Norman.

19. Bright-Banding and Evaporation Effects on Radar Precipitation Estimates in Central Texas. Melinda Bailey, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jacksonville, FL.

20. Transition of NOAA's Profiler Network to NWS Operations. Douglas W. van de Kamp, NOAA/ERL Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO.

21. Statistical Forecasting of Temperature in the Medium-Range. Kevin L. Carroll and Mary C. Erickson, NOAA/NWS/OSD Techniques Development Laboratory, Camp Springs, MD.

22. A Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating Verification Ballistic Conditions. Werner E. Cook, Patrick A. Haines, David I. Knapp and J. Scott Greene, US Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM.

7:00 PM Exhibits close for the day.

7:30 PM Broadcaster Dinner - TBA. David Freeman, Broadcast Meteorology Committee Chairperson.

8:00 PM 25th Anniversary Program Committee Meeting - Executive Board Room. Stephen Harned, Program Coordinator.

Tuesday, 19 October 1999

8:00 AM Keynote Speaker - Brigadier General Fred P. Lewis, USAF, Air Force Director of Weather, Pentagon, Washington, DC.

8:45 AM Air Force Weather Forecaster Apprentice Course. Captain Daniel C. Edwards, USAF, 81st Training Wing, Keesler AFB MS.

Session #5: Hydrology & Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting I. Session Chair: Gary Petti, NWA Treasurer and Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Calera, AL.

9:00 AM Review of National Weather Service Hydrologic Services for the New Millennium. Roger V. Pierce, Glenn S. Austin and Jeffery R. Zimmerman, NOAA/NWS Office of Hydrology, Hydrologic Services Division, Silver Spring, MD.

9:15 AM National QPF Assessment Team Survey Results. Rusty Pfost, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Miami, FL.

9:30 AM SCRAPE 99 - Summer Convective Rainfall in Alabama Prediction Experiment. Tom Bradshaw, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Calera, AL.

9:45 AM The Creation of a Synoptic Climatology for Significant Rainfall Over Kentucky and Southern Indiana. Stephen J. Klaus and James T. Moore, Heavy Precipitation Group, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University and Charles E. Graves, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO.

10:00 AM Coffee break – Exhibits openSession #6: Hydrology & Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting II. Session Chair: Jose' M. Garcia, Jr., NWA Councilor and Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Amarillo, TX.

10:30 AM Propagation Aspects of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) -- A Satellite Meteorology Perspective. Roderick A. Scofield, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD.

10:45 AM The Optimization of WSR-88D Scanning Strategies for Convective Storms. Vincent T. Wood and Rodger A. Brown, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK.

11:00 AM Determining WSR-88D Precipitation Algorithm Performance Using the Stage III Precipitation Processing System. Gregory J. Story, NOAA/NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center, Fort Worth, TX.

11:15 AM Utilizing Radar Data to Improve Streamflow Forecasts. Keith Stellman, NOAA/NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell, LA; Dr. Henry Fuelberg, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; Reggina Garza and Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS Southeast River Forecast Center.

11:30 AM A Hydrometeorological Assessment and Modification of Z/R Equations for the October 1996 Record Rainstorm in Maine. John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Gray, ME.

11:45 AM AVN-Based MOS Precipitation Type Forecasts. Rebecca L. Allen, NOAA/NWS Techniques Development Laboratory, Camp Springs, MD.

12:00 – 1:30 PM Lunch break

Session #7: Hydrology & Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting III. Session Chair: Leslie R. Lemon, NWA Vice President, and Chief Meteorologist, Weather and ATC Programs, Lockheed Martin Ocean, Radar & Sensor Systems, Independence, MO.

1:30 PM The WSR-88D Hourly Digital Precipitation Product: Local Applications at the NWS Forecast Office in Tallahassee, Florida. Andrew I. Watson and Kenneth J. Gould, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Tallahassee, FL; Keith M. Stellman, NOAA/NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell, LA; and Peter P. Dodge, NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL.

1:45 PM Jet Streak Backbuilding and the Influence of Latent Heating. Patrick S. Market, Dept. of Soil and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO and James T. Moore, Heavy Precipitation Group, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO.

2:00 PM Comparing Adiabatic and Diabatic Vertical Motions in Isentropic Coordinates. James T. Moore, Heavy Precipitation Group, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO; Patrick S. Market, Dept. of Soil and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO; and Scott M. Rochette, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Saint Cloud State University, Saint Cloud, MN.

2:15 PM Quantitative Surface Icing Reports from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS)/ Enhanced Freezing Precipitation Capabilities for the Automated Surface Observing System. Allan C. Ramsay and Jennifer Dover, Raytheon Information Technology and Scientific Services, Sterling, VA.

2:35 PM Climate Data Continuity with ASOS Temperature and Rain Observations. Thomas B. McKee, Nolan J. Doesken and John Kleist, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO and Norman L. Canfield, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.

2:50 PM Refreshment break

3:10 PM

Workshop I: Winter Weather Forecasting. Norman W. Junker, NWA Past President, NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD and Gregory Carbin, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK.

Workshop II: Aviation Weather Topics Discussion. Session Chairs. The Co-chairpersons of the NWA Aviation Meteorology Committee: Carolyn M. Kloth, NOAA/NWS Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO and Terry T. Lankford, Author on Aviation Topics; recently retired from the FAA, Pleasanton, CA.

5:00 PM Annual Meeting Sessions close; Exhibits close.

7:00 PM NWA Council meeting - TBA (Officers, Councilors and Committee Chairpersons).

Wednesday, 20 October 1999

8:00 AM Keynote speaker - Gary K. Grice, NWA Past President and Deputy Director of the NWS Southern Region, Fort Worth, TX.

Session #8: Satellite Meteorology I. Session Chair: Frances C. Holt, NWA Remote Sensing Committee Chairperson, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD.

8:45 AM NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) System Plans. Gerald J. Dittberner, NOAA/NESDIS GOES Program Manager, Suitland, MD.

9:00 AM The National Weather Service Operational Requirements for the Evolution of Future NOAA Operational Geostationary Satellites. James J. Gurka and James N. Heil, NOAA/NWS Silver Spring, MD.

9:15 AM An Overview of NOAA/NESDIS Polar-Orbiting Satellite Data Processing and NWS POES AWIPS Requirements. Pamela M. Taylor, NOAA/NESDIS/ Office of Systems Development/ Polar Program, Washington, DC.

9:30 AM Recent Advances to the Operational GOES Wind Processing System at NOAA/NESDIS. Jaime M. Daniels, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD; Wayne Bresky, Raytheon Information Technology and Scientific Services, Lanham, MD; Christopher Velden, University of Wisconsin, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, WI; and Antonio Irving, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution, Washington, DC.

9:45 AM The Current Status of AMSU Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products. Ralph Ferraro, Norman Grody and Fuzhong Weng, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD; Doug Moore, Limin Zhao and Jiang Zhao, 2QSS Group, Inc., Lanham, MD.

10:00 AM Coffee break – Exhibits open

Session #9: Satellite Meteorology II. Session Chair: Randall S. McKee, Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Mobile, AL.

10:30 AM Invited Paper: Mesoscale Dynamics of the Record-Breaking 10 November 1998 Mid-Latitude Cyclone: A Satellite-Based Case Study. Augustine Iacopelli, Student, Department of Geography and Meteorology, Valparaiso, University, Valparaiso, IN. Mr. Iacopelli is the winner of the First NWA Meteorological Satellite Applications Award.

10:45 AM On the Nature and Potential of Derived Product Imagery From the GOES Sounder. Gary S. Wade and Timothy J. Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/ARAD/ASPT, Univ. of Wisconsin, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, WI.

11:00 AM The GOES Sounder Cloud Project. Anthony J. Schreiner, University of Wisconsin, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies and Timothy J Schmit NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/ARAD/ASPT, Univ. of Wisconsin, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, WI.

11:15 AM AVN Based Statistical Forecasts of Total Cloud Amount and Ceiling Height. Mitchell Weiss, RS Information Systems, Inc., McLean, VA and J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS/OSD Techniques Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD.

11:30 AM POSTER SESSION II. Session Chair: G. Alan Johnson, NWA Program Committee, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Slidell, LA.

1. A Proposed Enhancement to the GOES Nighttime Fog Product to Estimate the Likelihood of Low Ceilings and Visibilities. Gary P. Ellrod, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD.

2. The Interannual Variability of Heavy Snowfalls in Northwest Missouri. Cynthia L. Berger, Anthony R. Lupo, Christopher C. Rayburn and Matthew D. Chambers, Department of Soil and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO; Peter Browning and Mike Bodner, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Pleasant Hill, MO.

3. Snowfall Threshold Probabilities for Local Areas. Preston W. Leftwich, Jr., NOAA/NWS Central Region Headquarters, Scientific Services Division, Kansas City, MO.

4. Validation of Eta-32 Model Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for Rainfall Events Exceeding Two Inches. Scott A. Watson and James T. Moore of the Heavy Precipitation Group, and Charles E. Graves, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO.

5. AMBER: Student Experiences and Products for Operational Use. Michelle R. Webb, and Paul J. Croft, Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences, and General Science, Jackson State University; Alan E. Gerard, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jackson, MS.

6. Preliminary Synoptic Climatology of Daily Record Temperature and Precipitation Events for Jackson, Mississippi. Paul J. Croft and Aisha C. Reed, Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences, and General Science, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS.

7. Preliminary Evaluation of Snowfall Events in Mississippi - How Rare? Paul J. Croft and Shundra M. Stewart, Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences, and General Science, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS.

8. The Value of Partial Thicknesses in Winter Precipitation-Type Forecasting. Ruth Aiken, Richard Jones and Kermit Keeter, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Raleigh, NC.

9. The Teaching of Special Sensory Microwave Imagery, Kerry Bartels, Military Weather Training Complex, 335th Training Squadron USAF, Keesler AFB MS.12:30 - 1:30 PM Lunch break; Exhibits close.

Session #10: The 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak in Oklahoma and Kansas. Session Chair: Dr. Joseph T. Schaefer, NWA Immediate Past President and Director of the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK.

1:30 PM An Overview of the Decision Making Process During the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas. Michael D. Vescio, NWA Councilor, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK.

1:50 PM Media Coverage of 3 May 1999 Tornado. Dan Threlkeld, Meteorologist, KFOR-TV Oklahoma City, OK.

2:05 PM A Closer Look at the 3 May 1999 South Wichita Tornadic Supercell. Peter L. Wolf, Science and Operations Officer, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Wichita, KS.

2:20 PM Performance of WSR-88D Storm Analysis Algorithms for the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak. David Zittel, Robert Lee, Scott Saul and Randy Steadham, WSR-88D Operational Support Facility, Norman, OK.

2:35 PM Highway Overpasses as Tornado Shelters. Fallout from the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma/Kansas Violent Tornado Outbreak. Daniel J. Miller, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Norman, OK. Co-Authors: Charles A. Doswell III, Harold E. Brooks and Gregory J. Stumpf, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and Erik N. Rasmussen, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Boulder, CO.

2:50 PM Refreshment Break

3:10 PM Workshop III: Warning Decision Making in a Modernized Environment. John Ferree and Liz Quoetone, NOAA/NWS WSR-88D Operational Support Facility, Operations Training Branch, Norman, OK.

6:00 PM Social Hour

7:00 PM NWA ANNUAL AWARDS BANQUET

Guest Speaker: Thirty Years Past Camille. Bruce G. Thomas, (Mississippi native), KCTV 5 Meteorologist, Kansas City, MO.

Thursday, 21 October 1999

Session #11: Severe Weather I. Session Chair: Larry Burch, NWA Councilor and Newsletter Co-Editor, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Salt Lake City, UT.

8:00 AM A Simulation Study of Negative Elevation Angles for Mountaintop Radars. Rodger A. Brown and Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK.

8:15 AM Radar Characteristics of Winter Storms in Utah. Steven V. Vasiloff, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Salt Lake City, LA.

8:30 AM Anticipating and Responding to a Tornado Outbreak from Elevated Convection in Wisconsin on 30 May 1998. Richard J. Naistat, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office Minneapolis/Chanhassen, MN.

8:45 AM A Summary of Radar Data Display Characteristics in AWIPS Build 4.2. Brad Grant, WSR-88D Operational Support Facility, Operations Training Branch, Norman, OK.

9:00 AM National Weather Service County Warning Areas: A New Concept in Multiple WSR-88D Coverage. J. William Conway, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; Alan E. Gerard, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jackson, MS. Pamela MacKeen, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK.

9:15 AM An Analysis of NSSL WDSS Circulation Parameters During Early 1999 Tornado Events in the NWS Jackson, Mississippi, County Warning Area. Eric Carpenter, Edward Agre and Alan E. Gerard, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jackson, MS.

9:30 AM FAA Weather and Radar Processor (WARP). Steve Walden, FAA AUA-460/AUATAC, Computer Technology Associates, Washington, DC.

9:45 AM Forecasting Lightning for Space Shuttle Landings Using the WSR-88D Layer Reflectivity Maximum Mid-Level Product. Timothy D. Oram, NOAA/NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group and Lockheed Martin, Johnson Space Center, TX.

10:00 AM Coffee Break

Session #12: Severe Weather II. Session Chair. Rodger A. Brown, NWA Commissioner of Committees, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK.

10:30 AM Two Unusual Convective Storm Observations and Their Possible Explanations. Leslie R. Lemon, NWA Vice President, Chief Meteorologist, Weather and ATC Programs, Lockheed Martin Ocean, Radar and Sensor Systems, Syracuse, NY.

10:45 AM Mesoscale Model Analysis of a Squall Line Associated with a Split Front. Jamie D. Mitchem and Steven E. Koch, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC.

11:00 AM Detailed WSR-88D Observations of a Cool Season Tornadic Bow Echo Event on 11 February 1999 over the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region: A Unique Tornado Event. Ron W. Przybylinski and Gary K. Schmocker, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Saint Charles, MO; James M. O'Sullivan and Yeong-Jer Lin, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO.

11:15 AM The 2-3 January 1999 Western Carolinas Ice Storm: An Evaluation of the Eta Model Performance and Storm Morphology. Bryan P. McAvoy and Patrick Moore, NOAA/NWS Forecast office, Greer, SC.

11:30 AM Performance of Eta Model Forecasts of the 850 hPa Southerly Low-Level Jet in the U.S. Great Plains. Steven R. Silberberg, Meteorology Program, Dept. of Geography, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL.

11:45 PM The Tornadic Thunderstorm Events during the 1998-1999 South African Summer. Estelle de Coning and BF Adam, Weather Forecasting Research Programme, South African Weather Bureau, Pretoria, South Africa.

12:00 - 1:15 PM Lunch break

Session #13: Severe Weather III. Session Chair: Estelle de Coning, Weather Forecasting Research Programme, South African Weather Bureau, Pretoria, South Africa.

1:15 PM Use of a New Thunderstorm Potential Index for 12-hour Forecasts Using Mesoscale Model Data. David I. Knapp, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM and Gordon Brooks, HQ U.S. Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB NE.

1:30 PM A Comparison of Operation Models and a Local Mesoscale Model During a Squall Line Event from a Forecasting Perspective. James M. O'Sullivan, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO and Ron W. Przybylinski, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Saint Charles, MO.

1:45 PM A Detailed WSR-88D Radar and Damage Survey of a Severe Bow echo Event on 14 June 1998 over the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region. Gary K. Schmocker and Ron W. Przybylinski, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Saint Charles, MO.

2:00 PM The Record Meso-Snowfall Event of 1997 in Jackson, Mississippi. Paul J. Croft, Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences, and General Science, Jackson State University, and Alan E. Gerard, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jackson, MS.

2:15 PM Operational Forecasting and Detection of Mesoscale Gravity Waves. Stephen M. Saleeby and Steven E. Koch, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC.

2:30 PM The Forgotten F5: The Lawrence County Supercell During the Middle Tennessee Tornado Outbreak of 16 April 1998. John D. Gordon, Bobby Boyd, Mark A. Rose and Jason B. Wright, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Nashville, TN.

2:45 PM Storm of Callers: Unbalanced TV Severe Weather Coverage. Dale A. Dockus, Senior Meteorologist, FedEx, Memphis, TN.

3:00 PM Warning 18 Million People - Pressing the Technology to the Limit. Jeffrey Tongue, Science and Operations Officer, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Upton, NY.

3:15 PM Refreshment Break

3:30 PM Poster Session III. Session Chair: Jeffery Medlin, Science and Operations Officer, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Mobile, AL.

1. A Database on the Character of Severe Thunderstorms in Central Pennsylvania. Richard H. Grumm, Thomas Dunham and Ernest Ostuno, NOAA/NWS Office, State College, PA.

2. A Mesoscale Model Simulation of a Midwestern Linear Convective System. James M. O'Sullivan, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis MO; Ron W. Przybylinski, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Saint Charles, MO; and Yeong-Jer Lin, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO.

3. Performance of NSSL Warning Decision Support System during the 3 May 1999 Central Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak. Patrick C. Burke, Christina Hannon, Valerie McCoy, Gregory J. Stumpf, E. DeWayne Mitchell, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and David L. Andra, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Norman, OK.

4. Verification of the Tornado Events in the Norman Oklahoma NWSFO County Warning Area for the 3 May 1999 Severe Weather Outbreak. Gregory J. Stumpf, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; Doug Speheger, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Norman, OK; and Donald W. Burgess, NOAA/WSR-88D Operational Support Facility, Norman, OK.

5. Tuning MIGFA for NEXRAD Radars: The 1998/1999 Sterling Test. Pamela MacKeen, NOAA/ERL National Severe Storms Laboratory and CIMMS, Norman, OK; John Morgan and Marilyn Wolfson, MIT/LL, Boston, MA; Jim Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Steven Zubrick, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Sterling, VA.

6. Florida Firestorm 1998: Weather Forecasting from the NWS Forecast Office Perspective and Lessons Learned Using the WSR-88D Doppler Radar. Pat Welsh, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jacksonville, FL.

7. Warning Verification Efficiency Within the County Warning Area of NWS Forecast Office, Birmingham, AL. Kevin J. Pence, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Calera, AL.

8. Verification of Space Shuttle End-of-Mission Landing Weather Forecasts. Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group, Johnson Space Center, TX.

9. Spaceflight Meteorology Group Daily Forecast Verification Update. Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group, Johnson Space Center, TX.

10. 45th Weather Squadron Forecast Improvement Initiatives Via External Agencies: An Update. William P. Roeder and Lt. Col. Dewey E. Harms, USAF/45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB FL.

11. Evaluation of RAMS in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System. John Manobianco, Winifred C. Lambert, Mark Wheeler, Jonathan Case and Allan Dianic, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL.

Friday, 22 October 1999

Session #14: Education and Training. Session Chair: Gail Hartfield, NWA Training Committee Chairperson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Raleigh, NC.

8:00 AM The NWS Training and Education Program: Meeting User Requirements and Ensuring Proficiency. Elliott Jacks, NWA Newsletter Co-Editor, NOAA/NWS Office of Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD.

8:15 AM AWIPS Training at the NWS National Training Center. Richard P. McNulty and Jerry M. Griffin, NOAA/NWS National Training Center, Kansas City, MO.

8:30 AM New Directions for the COMET Case Study Library. Elizabeth Mulvihill Page, NOAA/NWS Office of Meteorology, Boulder, CO; Dolores Kiessling, UCAR/COMET; and Jeff Weber, UCAR/Unidata, Boulder, CO.

8:45 AM The Future of Air Force Weather Instruction: The Electro-Optics Distance Learning Course. 1st Lt Rayna M. Mercer, USAF, Officer-In-Charge, Supplemental Weather Courses, 335th Training Squadron, Keesler AFB MS.

9:00 AM New Advances in Teaching Meteorology via Distance Learning. Dr. Mark S. Binkley, Department of Geosciences, Mississippi State University, MS, and Mike Mogil, How The Weatherworks, Rockville, MD.

9:15 AM Aviation Weather Training Seminar Opportunities for Meteorologists. Larry Burch, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Salt Lake City, UT.

9:30 AM An Update to the NWS Cooperative Observer Program. Robert Leffler and David Mannarano, NOAA/NWS/Office of Systems Operations; Andrew Horvitz, NWS/Office of Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD.

9:45 AM A Summary of the National Climate Extremes Committee's Evaluation of the Reported New National 1998-99 Seasonal Snowfall record at the Mount Baker, Washington, Ski Area. Robert J. Leffler, NWS/Office of Systems Operations, Silver Spring, MD; Michael Changery, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC; Raymond Downs, NWS/Office of Systems Operations, Silver Spring, MD; Andrew Horvitz, NWS/Office of Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD; Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center, Reno, NV; and George Taylor, President, American Association of State Climatologists.

10:00 AM Optimizing AWIPS for Severe Storm Detection and Warning Operations. Josh Korotky, Science and Operations Officer, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Pittsburgh, PA

10:15 AM Forecast Utilization of Video Camera Technology. Brian McInerney, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Salt Lake City, UT and Andrew Horvitz, NWS/Office of Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD.

10:30 AM Closing Remarks: James T. Moore, NWA President and Roderick A. Scofield, NWA President Elect.

11:00 AM NWA 24TH ANNUAL MEETING ADJOURNS.