Using COMET Modules as Educational
and Continuing Education
Opportunities. Elizabeth Page, UCAR/COMET, Greensboro, NC.
No abstract available.
Watershed Education for Weather
Broadcasters. Matthew Kelsch,
UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO.
Weather broadcasters are front-line
communicators for helping the public understand not only the weather,
but also related weather impacts. Weather has an impact on the
environment in which we live, and an integral part of that environment
are watersheds. When it comes to the protection of the
environment, an informed and educated public is essential. This
paper describes an effort that is the result of a partnership between
the National Environmental Education and Training Foundation (NEETF)
and the COMET Program. NEETF and COMET have developed a Broadcast
Meteorology Website and a corresponding two-hour short course titled,
“Watersheds: Connecting Weather to the Environment.”
The Broadcast Meteorologist Community Website
provides access to relevant online educational resources from the COMET
Program and other sources. The online watersheds course provides
the broadcast meteorologist with education on what a watershed is, the
characteristics of watershed systems, water sources and water quality
within a watershed and watershed system, and finally, how weather
events relate to the environmental health of a watershed and the
actions that the public can take to protect watershed health.
The watersheds course compliments an on-going
effort by NEETF, called Earth Gauge, which is a program that currently
provides environmental tips appropriate to the three-day forecast for
53 television markets reaching 130 million viewers. These tips are
written and designed to allow weather broadcasters to integrate them
into their on-air weather reports. In a like fashion, the
watersheds course has been designed to achieve two major goals: 1.) To
convey scientifically sound information about watersheds and the
relationship of weather to watershed health, and 2.) To do so in a way
that models how such information may be communicated effectively to the
public. Another goal of the project was to design the materials
in a way that broadcast meteorologists could readily borrow content
from the course to use either on their station web sites or on the
air. This presentation will discuss design features of the course
and demonstrate elements of it.
The Functionality of a New Radar
Software Package: GRLevel2 Analyst
Edition. Ted Keller, KOLR/KSFX-TV, Springfield, MO
A new software application is now
available to
interpret National Weather Service 88D Level II radar data in real
time. GRLevel2 Analyst Edition (GR2AE) features a high quality
volumetric display which allows you to interpret radar data in four
dimensions. Several high resolution reflectivity-derived graphical
products in addition to the standard Level II base data.
GR2AE derives five 2D products from the Level
II volume reflectivity: echo tops, vertically integrated liquid (VIL),
VIL density (VILD), probability of severe hail (POSH) and maximum
expected hail size (MEHS). The user can also manually input storm
motion vectors or use on-screen markers to estimate storm motion.
Through the use of shapefiles and placefiles, users can display a wide
variety of geographic and meteorological parameters and data.
This presentation will: 1) review GR2AE's
features, 2) explore the use of GR2AE using real data and 3) discuss
the usefulness of 3D rendering in identifying storm structure. It
will also explore how GR2AE can help television meteorologists make
more informed decisions during severe weather episodes especially with
regard to live cut-ins. The idea of displaying GR2AE data
on-air during such cut-ins will also be explored.
The First Operational Polarimetric Doppler Radar for Television
Use. James-Paul Dice, WHNT-TV, Huntsville, AL.
WHNT-TV and the University of
Alabama in
Huntsville (UAH) jointly developed the first operational polarimetric
Doppler radar for broadcast television. The system went on-line
November, 2003. The system combines a 350kW transmitter with a
Sigmet RVP-8 processor and RCP-8 antenna controller. The radar is
called ARMOR (Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational
Research).
ARMOR offers broadcast meteorologists the
advanced capabilities including hydrometeor identification and rainfall
mapping. Since 2004, meteorologists at WHNT-TV have been using
the radar to distinguish between rain and hail as well as detecting
rain/snow lines during Winter weather events. The radar operates
both in a single elevation surveillance scan as well as a volume scan
depending on the weather event.
Polarimetric Doppler is the next step in
weather radar technology. The National Weather Service NEXRAD
network is scheduled for an upgrade to polarimetric technology within
the next five years. WHNT is jointly developing value-added
radar products with Huntsville-based Baron Services as well as UAH for
the benefit of public safety.
This presentation outlines the history and
technology of the ARMOR radar system as well as its verification during
several severe weather events.
Performance of New Tornado
Detection Algorithms: The 18 August 2005
Stoughton, Wisconsin Tornado. Mike Beles, Weather Central, Inc.
This case study will examine the performance of new tornado
detection
algorithms during the 18 August 2005 Stoughton, Wisconsin F3 tornado.
The data is displayed in the ESP:LIVE storm-tracking system from
Weather Central, Inc. (WCI) of Madison, Wis., and the algorithms were
created by Weather Decisions Technologies (WDT) of Norman, Okla.. New
parameters from these algorithms showed a readily apparent increase in
the intensity of the rotation with this well-defined supercell.
Advanced warning of the severity of the storm was possible due to
analysis of new parameters such as the MesoCyclone Strength Index. In
addition, variables such as mesocyclone base and depth are also
examined to determine the 3D characteristics of the storm and how they
evolved over time.
Cyclone Saturday: A Review
of the Teamwork and Technology during the 12
November 2005 Iowa Tornadoes. John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des
Moines, IA and Daryl Herzmann, Iowa State University, Ames, IA.
On 12 November 2005, a series of late season supercell storms
moved
across Central Iowa, striking three communities. Due to a
combination of timely NWS warnings, live webcam/stormchaser video and
continuous media broadcasts, few injuries and only one death
occured. The event was also unique in that a NCAA college
football game with 50,000 fans in Ames, Iowa was about to begin when a
tornado passed within three miles of the stadium.
The Use of Mesoscale
Analysis. Daniel McCarthy, NOAA/NWS
Storm Prediction Center. Norman, Ok.
No abstract available.
Introduction to Weather Radar
Interpretation: Some Useful Insights for
the TV Meteorologist. Richard Kane, NOAA/NWS Pittsburgh, PA.
Various aspects of weather radar usage and interpretation are
presented
which should be useful for TV meteorologists. Some of the radar
characteristics and features addressed include such things as, basic
radar principles, Volume Coverage Patterns (VCPs), radar
limitations, hail contamination and bright banding with respect to
estimated radar rainfall, hail flares, tornadic versus downburst
signatures, anomalous propagation (AP) and the differences in radar
reflectivity and associated rainfall between tropical and mid-latitude
precipitation echoes.
Walk In My Shoes: Unique
Simulation Efforts at the 2006 National Severe
Weather Workshop. Elizabeth Quoetone, NOAA/NWS/WDTB Norman, OK.
Daphne LaDue and Paul Schlatter, University of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman,
OK, John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA and Dave Freeman, KSNW-TV,
Wichita, KS.
During severe weather operations, the
effectiveness of the partnerships between the broadcast media, the NWS,
and local emergency managers can have a big impact on how well severe
weather information is conveyed to, and received from, the
public. Having a prior understanding of the challenges unique to
each of these groups can greatly affect the quality of communications
between these groups during the actual event.
With this in mind, a unique simulation was
developed for participants in the 2006 National Severe Weather Workshop
held in Oklahoma in March 2006. The primary goal of this simulation was
to allow participants to develop an understanding of the duties their
partners perform during severe weather, while developing a sense of the
challenges that are faced by each group. Participants were divided into
three groups such that no participant did their regular job. As a
result, the participants had to take off their own cape of expertise
and experience, and step into the uncomfortable position of doing the
job their partners normally do. The intent was for the participants to
not only build empathy for their counterparts, but to eventually impact
real time events by incorporating the knowledge gained in this
experience into future operations.
The five-hour simulation, split between two days, was set up in three
different rooms, one for each group, with each room having simultaneous
feeds of displaced real-time data. The rooms represented the NWS (Storm
Prediction Center and Weather Forecast Office), the Media, and
Emergency Management. In the NWS room, the SPC group analyzed data and
discussed the societal constraints relative to issuing severe weather
outlooks and watches. After a watch was issued, participants switched
to the WFO role focusing on real-time radar data analysis in a
time-pressured environment. Threats were conveyed via warnings
and statements that were then transmitted to the other two rooms. In
the Emergency Operations Center, the group digested the information
from a multitude of sources and provided real-time spotter reports, in
addition to making decisions directly impacting the sounding of sirens
and the safety of citizens. The Media Room dealt with decisions
regarding expected weather and the possible impacts on programming. For
participants broadcasting live to the other two rooms, the need to
provide a constant flow of information during wall-to-wall coverage was
one of the most challenging aspects.
This presentation will discuss the process of
developing and conducting the simulation which required synchronous
displaced real-time weather data in three different physical locations
using three different platforms. The challenges each group faced in
their decision making as they tried to do their job in a context that
was time-pressured, complex, and ambiguous will also be
discussed. This context included the presence of live TV
broadcasts and interactive Ham radio feeds. Feedback from both
simulation organizers and participants will be presented.
A Public-Private Partnership to Saturate Two Television Markets with
NOAA Weather Radio. Wayne Hart, WEHT-TV, Evansville, IN, John
McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA, Rick Shanklin, NOAA/NWS Paducah,
KY and Jeff Johnson, NOAA/NWS Des Moines, IA.
During the month of November 2005
several
deadly tornadoes moved across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley.
These tornadoes caused millions in property damage and loss of life in
the Evansville, Indiana and Des Moines, Iowa television markets.
Stations WEHT-TV in Evansville and
KCCI-TV in Des Moines joined with a manufacturer of digital Specific
Area Message Encoded (S.A.M.E.) NOAA weather radios and major grocery
store chains to make weather radios available at near wholesale cost.
The result has been that nearly 100,000 weather radios are now in the
hands of television viewers in these markets.
The stations also worked with the Paducah,
Kentucky and Des Moines, Iowa National Weather Service offices to
assist the public with programming weather radios by hosting special
"programming days" several times during the spring. Many thousands of
radios were programmed during these highly publicized events.
Video clips from the public outreach events
and television promotions from each station's campaign will help to
illustrate the overwhelming public response. This will also allow for
an opportunity for audience discussion about the learning curve that
took place during the first six weeks of these sister campaigns.
From Watching to Watching Out: Public Reaction to Severe Weather
Information. Jim Rasor & Samantha Davies, WSIL-TV, Carterville, IL
The Ohio River Valley area of Southern
Illinois is the home market of the Great Tri-State Tornado of
1925. More recently, the area is home of the 1982 Marion tornado
which claimed 10 lives. Despite the history of violent tornadoes,
the viewing public has cycled through extreme reactions to severe
weather threats and warnings. Jim Rasor has worked in this region
as Chief Meteorologist for WSIL TV since 1987 and has observed these
changing attitudes. These changes have lead to adaptations of
coverage practices and delivery methods. Many of the changes,
including an annual severe weather seminar for the public, have been
cooperative events involving the local NWS office in Paducah, KY.
The 1982 fatal tornado event was followed by
20 years of relative quiet tornado activity and no fatalities. In
2002 that changed and every year since, significant tornado events have
occurred and the viewing public has changed its expectations regarding
severe weather information delivery. This presentation will offer
descriptions of the events using video and photographs for
perspective. The discussion will offer examples of information
delivery, including a system used at WSIL to fill a gap between watches
and warnings and provide lead time for viewers that need more time to
find cover from violent storms. Technology is providing better
tools for communicating severe weather information. Meteorologist
Samantha Davies will discuss how WSIL uses internet instant messaging
to swap reports with the NWS and provides custom closed captioning for
the hearing impaired directly from the WSIL weather desk.
FLASH: Strengthening Homes and
Safeguarding Families through
Partnerships. Leslie Chapman-Henderson, President/CEO of Federal
Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH, Inc.), Tallahassee, FL.
The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes,
Inc. -
FLASH® was founded as a public awareness campaign in 1998 to
educate citizens about disaster safety and promote safer, better-built
homes in post-Hurricane Andrew Florida. With the help of its
founding partners, including federal and state agencies, other
nonprofits, and financial and insurance businesses, FLASH helped create
a widespread demand for stronger, safer homes. When the initial
success of the campaign revealed FLASH’s potential for long-term
beneficial impact, FLASH was expanded into a nonprofit, 501(c)(3)
organization that offers free disaster safety and mitigation resources
nationwide.
Today FLASH is committed to strengthening
homes, safeguarding families, and protecting economic well-being by
promoting disaster preparedness and mitigation. FLASH’s list of
partners continues to grow and now includes more than 75 public,
private and nonprofit organizations such as the National Weather
Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Florida Department of
Community Affairs, Institute for Business and Home Safety, , State Farm
Insurance Companies, Allstate Insurance Company, Nationwide, USAA, The
Home Depot, and Salvation Army.
Every day FLASH plays a crucial role in
reaching people across the U.S. with free innovative, award-winning
programs on loss prevention and home safety including: public service
campaigns, such as Turn Around, Don’t DrownTM; national television
programs with Bob Vila and PBS; a popular educational website at
www.flash.org; Blueprint for Safety; and printed resources such as
FLASH Cards and a One-Stop Hurricane Resource Guide.
Leslie Chapman-Henderson will present
creative resources, which can help broadcasters understand and
communicate disaster safety information to their audiences.
SHARK-BAIT: How to Avoid Major
Mistakes in Employment Contract
Negotiations. Avery Friedman, Friedman Associates, Cleveland, OH.
No abstract available.
Storm-based Warnings:
Changes to NWS Warnings for the Digital
Age. John Ferree, NOAA/NWS/Severe Storm Service Leader, Norman, OK and
Dave Freeman, Chief Meteorologist, KSNW-TV, Wichita, KS.
For about a year, a team of NWS
employees has
been looking at issuing warnings (Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and
Flash Flood) on storms rather than on a county basis. Polygons
outlining the expected area of greatest risk of storm impact are
currently listed as a set of latitude and longitude points at the
bottom of these warnings. The proposal is to make the “polygon”
the official warning. A demonstration project last year, and
other supporting calculations indicate that the area under warnings may
be reduced by as much as 70%. This benefits the public by fewer
people being advised to take cover. Dan Sutter, an economist at
the University of Oklahoma, estimated that this would save the public
over 100 billion dollars. Several new technologies, including
mobile display systems using GIS, Digital EAS, and Reverse 911 cell
phone technology are supported by these “Storm-Based” warnings.
To this point, there has been broad support for these “Storm-Based”
warnings in our discussion with emergency managers, major retailers,
private meteorologists, and broadcast meteorologists.
NWA Seal Recertification
Update. Bryan Karrick, NWA Seal of Approval
Recertification Chair and Mike Goldberg, Broadcast Meteorology
Committee Chair
No abstract available.
Keynote Addresses
No abstracts available for the keynote addresses.
Session: Customer Service
The Nation's Weather Enterprise:
Short Course on the Public/Private
Partnership.
John Toohey-Morales, representing the National Council of Industrial
Meteorologists (NCIM)
The United States receives its weather
information from a three-sector "weather enterprise" system composed of
government, private sector, and academia. In a groundbreaking
collaboration, the National Council of Industrial Meteorologists
partnered with NOAA to conduct a live course on June 1st at Howard
University in Washington. Currently a distance learning module is being
produced. This course aims to train professionals in both the private
sector and government on how they can work together more effectively to
advance the weather enterprise as a whole, with a focus on the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the diverse private
sector companies that work together to deliver weather and
climate-related products and services. Participants will learn not only
the basics relevant to government institutions and private enterprises,
but will experience "walking a mile in each others shoes" through a
case study approach. The course is designed to maximize interaction
among participants and instructors, and it will be videotaped as the
foundation for Web-based training that will be made available to the
entire weather enterprise community.
Improving Partnerships through
Training: An Interactive Web-supported
Training Exercise for Decision-makers. Jason Johnson, Jonathan
Brazzell, Derek Deroche, Scott Overpeck, Seth Nagle, Julie States,
Hector Guerrero, and Amy McCullough, NOAA/NWS San Angelo, TX.
The National Weather Service has a long
tradition of providing weather support to emergency officials and first
responders during hazardous events. Fostering partnerships and
improving coordination with these groups promotes the planning and
preparation needed to build a strong network essential to saving
lives. With advances in technology, the NWS has added additional
ways for our customers to receive hazardous weather information,
including Internet-based products such as graphical forecasts, Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service graphics, and polygon warnings. With
these new products comes a responsibility to work with our partners to
ensure the information we provide is understandable and meets their
needs.
The NWS Weather Forecast Office in San Angelo
developed a training program aimed at enhancing the partnership and
communication with county officials and first responders, as well as
presenting new Internet-based products. The training program included a
tabletop exercise with multiple weather scenarios supported by a mock
NWS Internet web site. The training was designed to provide
numerous opportunities for open discussion to share best practices and
identify potential needs. Although the training was initially targeted
for decision-makers such as emergency managers and county judges, its
success generated numerous requests from other public safety groups
including 911 dispatchers and park rangers. The purpose of this
presentation is to briefly demonstrate the training course curriculum
and explain how this training has opened up new opportunities for the
NWS San Angelo staff to work directly with our partners. Not only do we
teach them about our new products and services, but we also strengthen
our partnership to improve our response to all hazards.
Instant Messaging, Then and Now. Faith Borden, and Darone Jones
NOAA/NWS, Birmingham, AL, and Daryl Herzmann, Iowa State University.
The National Weather Service Forecast
Office
in Birmingham, Alabama has been using instant messaging to communicate
with the media in real time since 2000. It has evolved over the
years from Yahoo! Instant Messenger to a new platform, IEM Chat, from
the Iowa Environmental Mesonet of Iowa State University. IEM Chat
is a secure and scalable instant-messaging platform built on the Jabber
XML Message Passing Protocol (XMPP). Since Jabber is open
standards based and freely extensible, exciting new software has been
developed on top of the IEM Chat platform code-named 'iembot'.
The 'iembot' software relays summaries of NWS issued text products into
pre-established chat rooms of which any signed up user can
simultaneously join. This software also allows for easy
management so participants can monitor and participate in multiple
rooms at one time. IEM Chat has allowed for WFO Birmingham to
expand the number of participants to include more than the media.
Being able to collaborate with local, county, and state emergency
management, in addition to our media partners, in real-time has
dramatically improved our ability to collect and disseminate accurate,
time critical products to our customers. Through this
presentation it will be demonstrated how instant messaging has evolved,
and how the IEM Chat platform has improved severe weather operations
for WFO Birmingham.
Impact Weather Communications. Mark
Fox, NOAA/NWS, Southern Region
Headquarters, Fort Worth, TX, Tom Bradshaw, NOAA/NWS, Southern Region
Headquarters.
The National Weather Service mission is
to
protect life and property and to enhance the nation’s economy. One of
the most effective ways to fulfill this mission is for local
forecasters to communicate effectively and openly during impact weather
events, giving customers and partners the necessary meteorological
information to decision makers.
A survey of the Warning and Coordination
Meteorologists within the Southern Region of the National Weather
Service was conducted in early summer of 2006, to determine the ways
and means of local communication efforts. The survey revealed a
progressive workforce utilizing various communication methods. Despite
a wide range of methods, each office defined their core group of
partners and customers and found ways to effectively communicate with
their local partners, customers, and public.
These diverse customer service methods are
examined across the Southern Region. This examination reveals the need
for local services tailored for local customer and partner needs.
The WEBCEM- An Automated
Dissemination Method for issuing Non-Weather
Related Hazardous Warnings via the Web. Brian C. Carcione,
Timothy W. Troutman, John M. Coyne, and Jason E. Burks, NOAA/NWS
Huntsville, AL.
This paper will detail the development
of a
cost efficient and more timely and accurate approach to disseminating
non-weather related warning information. The current process for
emergency managers to disseminate non-weather related emergency
messages is for the emergency managers to call or fax civil emergency
information to the local National Weather Service (NWS) office. A NWS
employee transcribes the message and then disseminates it via the NWS
AWIPS program through the EAS system to the media and NOAA Weather
Radio(NWR).
The purpose of this project was to develop a
method that would reduce the amount of time that it takes to
disseminate civil emergency and other related non-weather related
hazardous messages from local emergency management offices through the
NWS to the media and public. This nearly complete automation of these
non-weather related warnings will reduce the warning dissemination time
of these products from around seven minutes to less than two minutes.
The WEBCEM program allows EMA directors
the ability to visit a password protected web site to disseminate
non-weather related hazardous warning information directly to a local
National Weather Service office. This web based program allows for the
EMA director to choose the non-weather related hazard, type in the
necessary information needed within the warning text and disseminate
the warning message in a matter of seconds.
The WEBCEM method for issuing non-weather
related hazardous warning information has been successfully tested with
the end-to-end warning dissemination process being less than two
minutes. This dissemination process will allow the NWS and EMAs the
ability to utilize existing programs, computer servers and equipment to
disseminate the warning message in a timely and accurate manner,
therefore allowing for very minimal additional cost.
Watching Paint Weather: An
Overview of How We Use Different Climates
and Weathering Factors to Ensure Paint Will Last. Guy Wilson, Manager -
R&D Services, Sherwin-Williams Company.
Paint and coatings manufacturers as well
as
manufacturers of other polymer related materials rely heavily on
exterior natural weathering as the "gold standard" of performance
during development of a product. This presentation will give an
overview of how such testing is carried out and how weather and climate
can be used as a tool in this testing. Examples will be given of
the types of failure that are encountered and how to accelerate such
failures.
A Public-Private Partnership
to Saturate Two Television Markets with
NOAA Weather Radio. John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA,
Wayne Hart, WEHT-TV, Evansville, IN, Rick Shanklin, NOAA/NWS Paducah,
KY, and Jeff Johnson, NOAA/NWS Des Moines, IA .
During the month of November 2005
several
deadly tornadoes moved across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley.
These tornadoes caused millions in property damage and loss of life in
the Evansville, Indiana and Des Moines, Iowa television markets.
Stations WEHT-TV in Evansville and
KCCI-TV in Des Moines joined with a manufacturer of digital Specific
Area Message Encoded (S.A.M.E.) NOAA weather radios and major grocery
store chains to make weather radios available at near wholesale cost.
The result has been that nearly 100,000 weather radios are now in the
hands of television viewers in these markets.
The stations also worked with the
Paducah, Kentucky and Des Moines, Iowa National Weather Service offices
to assist the public with programming weather radios by hosting special
"programming days" several times during the spring. Many thousands of
radios were programmed during these highly publicized events.
Video clips from the public
outreach events and television promotions from each station's campaign
will help to illustrate the overwhelming public response. This will
also allow for an opportunity for audience discussion about the
learning curve that took place during the first six weeks of these
sister campaigns.
Applied Meteorology in the Mobile
Marketplace. Bob Baron and Rob
Doornbos, Baron Services, Inc., Huntsville, AL
It has long been acknowledged that
accurate
and timely weather information has a critical role to play in the
safety of the general public, the continued efficiency of business
operations and the efficacy of emergency services provided by first
responders. The Baron Services paradigm of "Detect-Disseminate-Respond"
is in direct response to those needs and at the core of what we
recognize as Consumer-Driven Weather.
Technology has evolved to a point that
consumers no longer have to surrender access to graphical weather
information when they leave their homes or offices. Real-time weather
data is already being provided to mobile environments, thanks to a
cutting-edge partnership between Baron Services and XM Satellite Radio.
The resulting service, XM WX Satellite
Weather (inception circa 2002), delivers real-time,
scientifically-sound weather content to tens of thousands of consumers
onboard airplanes, boats and automobiles. Consumers overwhelming
embrace of XM-delivered weather data is the result of
carefully-designed product suites for each consumer group. An entirely
new paradigm shift, Driver Driven Weather, has also been designed for
the nation s automobiles.
This paper will provide those in attendance
with an overview of lessons learned to date, the data utilized, the
technology employed, as well as anticipated future developments.
Session: Winter Weather
On the Co-existence of Thundersnow
and Heavy Snowfall. Christina Crowe,
Patrick Market, Brian Pettegrew, and Chris Melick, University of
Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO
A general assumption has existed for
quite
some time that lightning and thunder within a snowstorm must be
accompanied by locally heavier snowfall. While neither historical
studies nor specific case studies support this claim for all
thundersnow occurrences, instances of large snow accumulations and
elevated lightning rates do seem to be well-correlated in the stronger,
more dynamic extratropical cyclones. This study seeks to
determine whether lightning strikes are co-located with heavier bands
of short-term snowfall rates and/or long-term snowfall
accumulations. In the case of short term snowfall rates, WSR-88D
and NLDN data (after 2003) or METARs (prior to 2003) were used for the
analysis. We found that locations of observed lightning were at
or near a snow band and that most occurred within the region between
the core values in the band and where those values drop to ½ of
the max value typical reflectivities (30 dBz) in vicinity of flash
(range 18-40dBz).
For long term, 24-hour snowfall
accumulation, historical surface observations and daily snowfall totals
were taken from the Cooperative Climate Observers for cases from
1961-1990; events occurring 6 hours before CCO reports (1200 CST)
preferred. In this instance, we found that in 86% of the events
examined, 15cm fell within 1° of latitude of the
lightning-reporting station. In 45% of the events, snowfall
totals 25 cm occurred within 1° of latitude. In short,
three broad conclusions are reached: 1) Lightning in these events tends
to occur in relatively close proximity to instantaneous regions of
stronger reflectivity; 2) Thundersnow events tend to be associated with
regions of higher (>15cm) snowfall accumulations, but not the very
deepest totals, and 3) The existence of lightning and thunder tends to
point a more vigorous, precipitation-producing portion of Midwestern
extratropical cyclones.
Lake Effect Thunder-Snows Over
the Eastern Great Lakes. Robert
Hamilton, NOAA/NWS Buffalo, NY, and Scott Steiger, Ph.D., Assistant
Professor, SUNY Oswego. NY
Heavy lake effect snows typify
winter
weather across Western New York as intrusions of arctic air generate
snowfall amounts that are often measured in feet. While
significant snowfall is produced from these events with convective
outbursts capable of producing rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour, they are
usually very localized in aerial coverage.
Lightning and thunder occasionally highlight
these impressive mesoscale events. Lightning-bearing lake effect snows
across Western New York typically occur early in the winter season. The
surface temperatures of Lakes Erie and Ontario are still relatively
"warm" at that time of year. In addition, the depth of the surface to
-10C layer is still several thousand feet thick.
Higher lake temperatures and a deeper
boundary layer appear to be critical components that allow for abundant
graupel production. The increased graupel is a crucial element in
helping to produce an electrical charge, both by its electrostatic
properties and through its role in building a static charge through
frictional collisions with smaller ice particles and super cooled water
droplets. Current electrification models strongly support the
theory that graupel production in the 10C to 20C layer is
essential for the beginning stages of lightning production. The depth
of the surface to -10C layer is also extremely important in terms of
allowing for charge separation.
This research has been conducted using
nearly 10 years worth of sounding and ETA model data, dating from the
winters of 1996 97 through 2005 2006. Results of this study on
Western New York thunder-snow events suggest that if the depth of the
surface to -10C is too shallow then graupel cannot be produced and
lightning is much less likely. Various other convective
parameters such as vertical velocity, CAPE, and equilibrium level are
also examined to determine their possible contribution to lightning
production in lake effect snow.
This presentation will show the importance of
the lake water temperature in generating graupel that is crucial to
developing an electrical charge within the lake effect clouds.
Simulation of Lake Effect Snow using
the Workstation WRF model. Daniel
Leins and Robert LaPlante, NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH
Lake Effect snow (LES) events
produce
significant amounts of snow from mesoscale snow bands downwind of the
Great Lakes during the winter months. The mesoscale nature of the
LES bands produce sharp, intense gradients in snowfall that are a
challenge to simulate with operational model horizontal grid spacing in
excess of 10 km. The workstation version of the Weather Research
and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS) with a finer
resolution of 6 km was employed by WFO Cleveland to simulate LES over
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania during the 2005-2006 winter
season. Several LES events were identified and numerical model
initial and boundary conditions were saved. This presentation
will show the results of WRF sensitivity studies that were conducted by
varying the model horizontal resolution from 3 to 6 km, by varying the
cloud microphysical scheme, and by varying the choice of convective
parameterization scheme. Model output will be verified with snow
spotter observations along with satellite and radar imagery to
determine the optimal model configuration, which will be used in future
simulations.
Correlations between Observed
Snowfall and NAM Forecast Parameters:
Part 1 Dynamical Parameters, Part 2 - Microphysical
Parameters.
Michael Evans and Michael L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS Binghamton,
NY.
Mesoscale and microscale factors
that
lead to enhanced snowfall in winter storms have been a topic of
extensive research during the past several years. Research has
shown that bands of heavy snow are often explained dynamically in terms
of a thermally direct circulation associated with strong, steeply
sloped lower to mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which becomes
co-located with a region of reduced or negative stability to slantwise
motions. In cases of lighter but still significant bands of snow,
recent research has shown that the thermally direct circulations are
weaker, shallower, and less persistent than in heavier events.
Based on this research, forecasters engaged in predicting snowfall have
been trained to look for favorable configurations of frontogenesis and
reduced or negative stability [as indicated by small or negative values
of saturation equivalent potential vorticity (EPV)]. However,
little guidance is currently available on how to translate the
existence, intensity, and persistence of these signatures into actual
snowfall amounts. Regarding the microscale, research has shown
that enhanced snowfall can occur when significant lift occurs in layers
with temperature structures that are favorable for dendritic snow
crystal growth (dendrite-production layers). Again, except for
some algorithms related to snow-to-liquid ratios, little guidance is
available to forecasters on how specifically to modify snowfall
forecasts based on the existence of co-located upward vertical motion
and a favorable thermal profile.
The goal of this study is two-fold.
First, to validate the utility of examining frontogenesis, EPV,
vertical velocity, and temperature profiles for snowfall
forecasting. Second, to provide forecasters with guidance on
forecasting snowfall amounts, based on thresholds of intensity and
persistence of these parameters. To accomplish these goals, data
from 29 snow events in central New York and northeast Pennsylvania were
examined. Event-maximum snowfall in these cases ranged from 4 to 34
inches. For each event a representative time and location within
the area of heavy snow was identified. Data valid at these times
and locations were analyzed in both cross-sectional and time-height
formats. Values of relevant parameters were recorded for each event.
Part one of this study focuses on correlations between snowfall and
dynamical parameters such as frontogenesis, EPV, and omega. Part
two of the study focuses on correlations between snowfall and factors
related to precipitation efficiency, such as co-location between upward
motion and a favorable thermodynamic profile
Preliminary results will be presented that
indicate that every storm in the database was associated with a 12-hour
forecast of at least one layer of frontogenesis below 500 hPa, and at
least one layer of negative EPV below 400 hPa. Therefore, it
appears that merely identifying the existence of those two factors is
not enough to allow forecasters to conclude anything about storm-total
snowfall amounts. However, strong correlations were found between
observed snowfall and factors that were related to depth and
persistence of co-located upward vertical motion and negative
EPV. The fact that these correlations were stronger than the
correlations between observed snowfall and persistence and depth of
upward vertical motion (EPV not considered) implies that there is
significant value in looking for negative EPV in the forecast
process. Strong correlations were also found between observed
snowfall and maximum upward vertical motion within dendrite-production
layers, while somewhat weaker correlations were found between snowfall
and vertical motion alone (dendrite-production layer depth not
considered). Evidence will be presented that indicates that
consideration of the dendrite-production layer in the forecast process
reduces false alarm rates for light to moderate snow events. Much
lower correlations were found with 24-hour forecasts of many of these
parameters, due primarily to a few major model forecast busts.
Details of the above correlation
methodology, resulting correlations, forecasting thresholds, and
threshold statistics will be presented.
The Great Ohio Blizzard of 1978: Storm review and assessment of
societal impacts.
Kirk A. Lombardy, NOAA/NWS Cleveland, Ohio, and Dr. Thomas W.
Schmidlin, Kent State University.
The infamous Great Blizzard of 1978 will
continue to live on in the memory of those that lived in Ohio during
the event. The storm was classified as the worst ever to
hit Ohio with 51 dead and a declaration as a federal disaster area left
in its wake. The blizzard developed as a Delta low and
moved north into Ohio on 26 January 1978, while deepening rapidly to a
record low pressure for Ohio. Hurricane force winds caused
significant drifting of snow up to 20 feet across the region. The
strong winds left thousands without electrical power for days.
The purpose of this presentation is to examine the meteorology of this
historic storm and its impact on transportation, business, industry and
schools. The potential impact of an equivalent storm on today s
society will also be discussed.
The Blizzard of 2006 in the
Northeast: A look inside the
operations of a National Weather Service Forecast Office. Patrick
Maloit and Jeffrey Tongue, NOAA/NWS Upton, NY.
On February 12, 2006, record setting
snowfall
occurred in the megalopolis of the northeastern United States extending
from Philadelphia to New York City to Boston. Snow fall measured
in New York City and other locations exceed all time snowstorm
records 26.9 inches was measured in Central Park, New York,
NY. The Central Park measurement is now recorded as the greatest
snowfall from a single storm ever in over 135 years of record.
The news associated with this event was in
actuality the lack of news. Despite record breaking snowfall, the
region was able to recover quickly due to advance warning and
preparedness. Many schools and business were able to open the
following day.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in
the northeast began issuing outlooks for the potential for a
significant storm four days prior. Winter Storm Watches were
issued two days before the event and blizzard warnings were posted 25
hours in advance.
This presentation will describe the
varying meteorological guidance that NWS forecasters had to convey into
a deterministic forecast. It will examine pressures to adjust the
forecast and how the meteorologist’s skills lead to producing an
accurate forecast that gave sufficient lead-time for the record
event.
During the event, the NWS forecasters
provided detailed information to the public and media about the
progress of the event. The largest problem that required the most
effort was compiling the hundreds of reports of snowfall that arrive at
the NWS from various sources. Getting these reports disseminated
in a logical manner and ensuring that they were reasonably accurate
becomes an increasingly complex chore for the local NWS office.
Session: Probabilistic Forecasting
Model JUMPINESS and
the Need for Ensembles. Richard
Grumm, NOAA/NWS State College PA, and Lance Bosart, State University of
New York at Albany.
Weather forecast uncertainties
derived from
run-to-run inconsistencies between successive forecasts of a single
deterministic model occur with regularity. The resulting forecast
jumpiness can occur at both the synoptic and mesoscale. At the synoptic
scale, a significant storm system, initially not present may appear and
in some cases, disappear in later forecasts. On the mesoscale, the
track and intensity of the weather system may show considerable
run-to-run variation. Thus, the concept of the weather system is
present but the area most likely impacted by the significant weather
may show considerable variability.
Sensible weather forecasts are greatly
impacted by model jumpiness. Model jumpiness is defined here as large
cycle-to-cycle changes in system location or intensity. The overall
impact is larger at longer ranges where the uncertainty is larger.
However, with significant precipitation events, model jumpiness on the
mesoscale can contribute to equally large uncertainty on the mesoscale
as to the location of heaviest precipitation.
This paper will document successive forecasts
of cyclones in the eastern United States during the winter of
2005-2006. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Global Forecast System (GFS) is used to show model jumpiness in
successive 6 and 12-hour forecasts. How these forecasts impact
the sensible weather is also presented. The benefits of using medium-
and short-range ensemble forecasts (MREF and SREF respectively) are
presented as tools to mitigate the effects of model jumpiness.
A case study of the 12 February 2006 East
Coast winter storm is presented, showing how the GFS initially failed
to predict the cyclone. Once the cyclone was forecast by the GFS, the
details related to the mesoscale weather varied markedly at shorter
ranges. The NCEP
MREF and SREF forecasts are also presented. The MREF indicated the
potential East Coast storm approximately 0.5 days earlier than the
deterministic GFS. However, jumpiness issues were present in both
ensemble prediction systems which also impacted the forecasts related
to where the heaviest precipitation would fall.
Using Ensemble Probability
Forecasts And High Resolution Models To
Identify Severe Weather Threats. Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS,
Pittsburgh, PA, and Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) data
from the
NOAA/NWS National Centers of Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP)
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (Du et al. 2004:SREF) are used to
predict areas with a severe weather threat. This study illustrates the
value of using SREF forecast products that depict probabilities of
exceedance and joint probabilities of variables related to severe
weather. Probabilities of exceedance for Convective Available Potential
Energy (CAPE), Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH), height normalized (mean)
shear, and the Energy Helicity Index (EHI) are examined. Joint
probabilities of CAPE, effective shear, and 3 hr. convective
precipitation are also considered.
SREF probability forecasts are examined for a
vigorous severe weather event that occurred across much of the central
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys on 2 April 2006. We will show that
joint and exceedance probabilities from the SREF make it possible to
clearly distinguish areas with the greatest severe weather
potential.
A forecast strategy is proposed that
utilizes:
1) ensemble data for assessing the likelihood, mode, and forecast
confidence of a severe weather event; 2) climatological anomalies for
evaluating the historical context of an impending event; and 3) high
resolution model data for determining the magnitude of moisture, the
horizontal and vertical extent of moisture, important mesoscale
structures, and relevant forcing mechanisms at short ranges.
Expressing Uncertainty in both
Hazardous and Routine Weather Forecasts
at a NWS Forecast Office. Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA/NWS Milwaukee/
Sullivan WI.
Recent advances in production of
Graphical and
Gridded forecast elements at National Weather Service (NWS) Offices
have included many basic elements such as temperature, dewpoints,
winds, precipitation, and sky cover. However, the primary mission
of the NWS is the protection of lives and property. Hazardous
Weather Outlooks issued by NWS offices do provide yes/no forecasts of
severe weather, heavy rain, winter weather, and extreme temperatures
and winds. However, these elements are not currently connected to
the graphical forecast process in IFPS (Interactive Forecast
Preparation System) and GFE (Graphical Forecast Editor).
A multi-disciplinary group of scientists is
looking into how to better communicate uncertainty in weather forecasts
and warnings to users. The Weather and Society Integrated Studies
(WAS *IS) workshops have adopted this as one of the topics of focus
(http://www.rap.ucar.edu/was_is/).
This presentation will describe an
experimental project to provide probabilistic information on hazardous
weather elements. The products are disseminated in a graphical
and tabular format using the GFE to our customers, primarily the
Emergency Managers and Media. Examples of how routine temperature
and precipitation forecasts can also contain more uncertainty
information will also be presented.
The Short-Range Ensemble
Forecast: Applying Uncertainty and
Probabilistic Forecasts of Winter Storms. Matthew Steinbugl,
NOAA/NWS Des Moines, IA, and Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWS State
College. PA
Ensemble prediction system s (EPS s) are
generally assessed in terms of a probabilistic approach, essentially
forecasting the uncertainty with respect to numerical weather
prediction (NWP) model output. These forecasts provide multiple
solutions provided by varied initial conditions and model cores.
In contrast, deterministic NWP model output depicts a single solution,
leaving the forecaster with no true sense of range of potential
outcomes. Often, this leads forecasters to not consider the uncertainty
within the forecast process and ultimately not provide the best support
for the customer.
Ensembles allow the forecaster to mitigate
some the inherit uncertainty in weather forecasts. A key method to
accomplish this includes the use of probabilistic forecast products and
displays showing dispersion of each member about the ensemble mean.
These products allow forecasters to make quick assessments of the
relative frequency of occurrence of an event among several
member solutions. Forecasting late season snowfall can be very
difficult and have significant impact on local and regional economics.
The National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP) Short-Range
Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is one tool that can be used to understand the
uncertainty within the model output and add confidence to the overall
forecast of a potentially rare event. EPS systems also perform well in
predicting anomalous events when compared to long term climatology.
Late-season winter storms certainly provide a challenge to operational
forecasters and by using the SREF, forecast uncertainty can become
forecaster confidence.
This study will examine ensemble forecasts of
several late season snowstorms in the upper Midwest. Storms used
in this study include
the 22-23 December
2004, 23-25 April 2005, and the 11-12 May 2006 snow events.
Using Ensemble Model Output
Statistics to Improve 12-Hour Probability
of Precipitation Forecasts. John P. Gagan, NOAA/NWS Springfield,
MO, and Chad Entremont, NOAA/NWS Jackson, MS.
NOAA/National Weather Service Weather
Forecast
Offices (NWS WFOs) provide 12-hour probability of precipitation (PoP)
forecasts as part of their routine 7-day forecasts. The PoP, as
defined in NWS directive 10-503, is the probability of occurrence of
measurable precipitation (0.01 inch) at a given point for each 12-hour
period through Day 7. PoP forecasts are relied on by a broad
range of end-users in order to make decisions for their respective
outdoor activities. As a result, accurate PoP forecasts are an
integral part of the NWS WFO mission.
Numerous tools are available to prepare
a PoP forecast, ranging from raw numerical model output, such as NCEP's
Global Forecast System (GFS), to model output statistics (MOS) such as
the GFS MOS (out to forecast hour 72) and GFSX MOS (out to forecast
hour 168). PoP forecasts from MOS guidance are consistent with
the definition outlined by NWS Directive 10-503 and are produced for 6,
12 and 24 hour periods for hundreds of points across North
America. As a metric, NWS official verification compares WFO PoP
forecasts to the GFS and GFSX MOS output. From January 2004
through April 2006, verification of PoP forecasts from NWS WFOs show
consistent improvement over GFS and GFSX MOS when no precipitation is
observed. However, when precipitation is observed, GFS and GFSX
MOS typically outperform NWS WFOs.
Ensemble based MOS (based off of the twelve
members of the GFS ensemble system) will be examined to investigate if
PoP forecasts can be improved when precipitation is observed. The
ensemble MOS will be explored at seven sites located across two
separate NWS WFO areas of responsibility: Jackson, MS (KJAN) and
Springfield, MO (KSGF). The ensemble-mean 12-hour PoP will be
analyzed for each forecast period and compared to rainfall accumulation
data from each respective METAR sites. Ensemble-mean values will then
be stratified to isolate what values signal the best (least) potential
for measurable precipitation.
Updated Thunderstorm
Probability Forecast Guidance in Support of
Gridded Model Output Statistics. Kathryn Gilbert, NOAA/NWS Silver
Spring, MD
For years, National Weather Service
(NWS)
forecasters have used Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance as an aid
in producing text forecast products issued to the user community.
However, the methods that forecasters use to generate forecast products
have now changed be-cause of requirements to produce forecasts on
high-resolution grids in support of the National Digital Forecast
Database (NDFD). Forecasters need guidance, such as MOS,
available on a grid, at a resolution comparable to the grid resolution
used at the local forecast office. In most cases, this resolution
is 5-km, but may be as fine as 2.5-km or even 1.25-km, in areas of
complex terrain. Statistical techniques have been used to derive
model-based objective probabilistic thunderstorm guidance on grids
since the mid-1970s -- in a sense, a precursor to our current efforts
to develop a complete gridded MOS system.
Recently, an updated thunderstorm probability
guidance system, based on output from the Global Forecast System (GFS)
was implemented to reflect the NDFD grid requirements. This
thunderstorm guidance product represents the probability of one or more
cloud-to-ground lightning strikes within a 40-km square box over the
contiguous U.S., centered on each 5-km grid box during a given time
period. Thunderstorm probability forecast guidance was developed
for
6-, 12-, and 24-h periods from projections ending at 12 hours in
advance, out to 192 hours in advance. In addition, to meet the
needs of forecasters producing guidance for finer time scales, a new
set of thunderstorm forecast equations was developed for 3-h periods
out to 84 hours in advance. The equations to predict the
probability of thunderstorms were developed from observed
cloud-to-ground lightning data and output from the GFS model.
Relative frequencies of lightning, generated from the lightning
observations, were created as potential predictors in the statistical
forecast system, and were used for comparing the accuracy of the
forecast guidance to forecasts based solely on climate.
The use of a Geographical Information System
(GIS) has become a valuable tool in the creation of gridded MOS
thunderstorm guidance. GIS techniques were employed to match the
observed data to the grid specifications, evaluate the relative
frequencies, and eliminate areas with no data coverage from
development. The GIS also allows us to explore new data types
such as terrain features, land cover, and high resolution gridded
climate data, for use as potential predictors in our gridded MOS
system. These higher resolution data types will supplement our
traditional set of model predictors and surface observations in the
development of the gridded MOS system. In this presentation, the
current MOS probabilistic thunderstorm guidance is discussed. In
addition, other examples of elements in the gridded MOS guidance
system, such as maximum and minimum temperatures, probability of
precipitation, temperature, dewpoint, wind direction, and wind speed,
are shown.
Session: Severe Weather I
Verification of Particularly
Dangerous Situation (PDS) Watches.
Joseph T. Schaefer, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Andrew R.
Dean, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and SPC.
Ever since the first watch associated
with the
Red River tornado outbreak of April 2, 1982, a few of the tornado and
severe thunderstorm watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC), and its predecessor the National Severe Storms Forecast Center
(NSSFC), include a one sentence paragraph that states
“THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION”
This line immediately follows the
effective time in the header of the watch. Currently this enhanced
wording is inserted into tornado watches when there is a likelihood of
multiple strong tornadoes (damage of F2 or F3) or at least one violent
(damage of F4 or F5) tornado. Currently, this enhancement is also used
in severe thunderstorm watches in two kinds of situations: 1) when
conditions are favorable for significant non-tornadic severe weather
events (convective wind gusts of at least 65 knots and/or hail with a
diameter of 2 or greater); and 2) when a large bow echo system has
developed, is moving at 48 knots or greater, and there is evidence of
destructive winds occurring at the surface.
In this presentation, PDS watches issued
during the 10-year period 1996 through 2005 are examined. Over the last
decade, there has been an average of 22 PDS tornado watches and 2 PDS
severe thunderstorm watches issued each year. This is only about 8% of
the watches issued. PDS tornado watches correctly forecast 24% of the
occurrences of clusters of multiple strong and violent tornadoes. Also,
about 30% of PDS tornado watches contain multiple strong or violent
tornadoes.
As the forecast severity of the watch
increases (i.e., Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Tornado Watch, PDS Tornado
Watch), the percent aerial coverage of the watch impacted by tornado
activity, and by strong and violent tornado activity increases.
Thus, performance over the past decade indicates that the SPC shows
skill in differentiating situations that are likely to produce strong
and violent tornadoes.
The Severe Hail Verification
Experiment (SHAVE 2006).
Travis Smith, U. of Oklahoma/CIMMS / NSSL, Kiel Ortega, and Kevin
Scharfenberg both with the U. of Oklahoma/CIMMS / NSSL.
This presentation highlights preliminary
results from the Severe Hail Verification Experiment (SHAVE), which is
a project that blends high-resolution radar data with geographic
information. The primary objective of this experiment is to collect
high temporal and spatial resolution data that describe the
distribution of hail sizes in hail swaths produced by severe
thunderstorms. These data enable several goals, including:
1. to utilize the high-resolution verification data in the development
of techniques for probabilistic warnings of severe thunderstorms,
2. to evaluate the performance of a multi-sensor, multi-radar hail
detection algorithm,
3. to correlate changes in the hail size distribution with storm
evolution, and
4. to enhance climatological information about hail in the United
States.
The high spatial and temporal resolution of the dataset collected
during the project facilitates the development of decision-making tools
that improve forecasts and warnings of severe hail as well as improving
the historical record of hail events. The project runs approximately
May 15, 2006 through August 15, 2006. It utilizes the real-time hail
swath products from the CONUS Warning Decision Support
System Integrated Information (WDSS-II) to enhance data
collection via verification telephone calls to select data points along
a storm's path immediately following storm passage. Because the
presence of hail is diagnosed via radar on the scale of the continental
United States, it is possible to collect data from anywhere in the
contiguous 48 states on a daily basis throughout the summer, which
minimizes project "down days." Data are collected by a team of
University of Oklahoma meteorology students working closely with
scientists from the National Severe Storms Laboratory/Cooperative
Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies. SHAVE is an experiment
conducted in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed as part of the
Experimental Warning Program by the NSSL/CIMMS Severe Weather Warning
Applications and Technology Transfer (SWAT) group.
Changes in F-Scale, Hail and
Wind Reports. Daniel McCarthy and Joseph
T. Schaefer, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center.
During the last few years, changes have
been
made in storm reporting in the hope of improving the severe weather
data available for research. Changes such as the hail experiment
in Kansas and reporting measured or estimated wind gusts are already
taking place and have affected the 2005 data noticeably.
The popular F-Scale developed in 1971 by Dr.
T. Fujita to estimate hurricane and tornado wind intensity based on
damage caused by these storms will be changing in early 2007. The
practical use of the scale was made evident by the thorough survey of
the damage from the Super Outbreak performed by him and his staff at
the University of Chicago. After Fujita and his team published
their results, the F-Scale became the cornerstone of determining
tornado character and strength. Databases were redone to include
F-Scale estimates based on past accounts and descriptions.
This presentation will illustrate the changes
in applying the F-Scale has had on the historical database as the
meteorological community sits at the cusp of using the Enhanced Fujita
Scale (EF-Scale). Effects of raising hail criteria to one-inch
diameter for severe criteria will also be illustrated.
A Proposal for a Threat Level
Scale for National Weather Service Severe
Thunderstorm Warnings. Kelly G. Godsey, Robert C. Goree and
Andrew I. Watson, NOAA/NWS Tallahassee, FL
The National Weather Service (NWS)
issues
severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings to prompt public
response and save lives and property. Response to tornado
warnings has increased over recent decades resulting in innumerable
lives saved. Response to severe thunderstorm warnings has not
improved and arguably has decreased. This may be due to the large
increase in the number of severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the
NWS the early 1990s. Another factor is that many marginally
severe storms do not result in significant, noteworthy damage.
Severe thunderstorms are defined by ¾ inch or larger hail and
winds of 50 knots or greater. However, many severe thunderstorm
warnings are verified as severe, without objective measurements and may
have been less intense than the official severe thresholds. The
resulting public perception is that a severe thunderstorm warning does
not suggest a serious threat.
Thunderstorms of any intensity present some
degree of threat to life and property. Torrential rain causes
localized flooding and traffic fatalities. Lightning causes many
deaths and injuries. Even small hail, especially in large
amounts, is a hazard to motorists and agriculture. Many offices
issue significant weather alerts for strong storms that do not meet NWS
severe criteria. Indeed, many thunderstorms do attain intensity
that present a significant threat to people but are below severe
thresholds. Often, the public or local authorities report that
the thunderstorm is severe based upon the intensity of the rain and
lightning.
It is likely that the public would benefit
from an enhancement of thunderstorm forecasts and warnings.
Therefore, a thunderstorm intensity scale has been developed to give
the public a tool for response to thunderstorm hazards. The
purpose of this scale would be to allow vulnerable populations to
respond more aptly to marginal storms, while allowing less sensitive
populations to set higher thresholds of response.
It is obvious that our culture has
appreciation for such scales. The Saffir-Simpson and the Fujita
scales are well understood by the public and can often give people
better perception of danger. With respect to hurricanes, many
officials rely on the forecast Saffir-Simpson scale in making
evacuation decisions. It is suggested that people would likewise
respond to a thunderstorm threat level. An example scenario would
be the suspension of an event based upon the forecast of a threat level
2 thunderstorm within the next hour.
Current severe thunderstorm warning criteria
and verification methods would continue, but with an added threat
level. This could be accomplished by integrating four main
threats of a severe thunderstorm that are hazardous to the public
(wind, hail, lightning and heavy rain) into a composite index that
corresponds to a threat level easily identifiable by the public, that
quickly conveys the level of threat expected. The scale is
heavily weighted toward wind and hail impacts. The scale is made up of
six threat levels ranging from one to six, with six being the
highest. Using current severe thunderstorm warning criteria,
nearly every severe thunderstorm warning issued will be of at least
threat level two intensity. Some thunderstorms producing
exceptional rain, very frequent lightning and/or small hail would also
be deemed threat level 2. Threat level one intensity is designed
for most thunderstorms not meeting severe criteria. As the
impacts from a thunderstorm increase, the threat level will increase
based on the composite index. The wind component of the index
increases non-linearly once current severe criteria is attained.
The wind component was designed in this manner to correlate with the
known fact that the force of wind does not increase at a constant rate
as wind velocity increases. This places significant severe
damaging wind events (65 knots to 74 knots) entirely within the threat
level three ranking, with threat level four being used for extreme
damaging wind events with 75 knots to 90 knot winds. Threat levels five
and six would rarely be used based on just wind alone, unless they are
used in conjunction with tornado and destructive wind warnings issued
during tropical cyclone events.
Hail contributes to the index in an
interesting way. While to the public, any hail that falls may be
significant, small hail stones less than one inch in diameter will
cause little or no damage to property. In this instance, the hail
index will add a minor adjustment to the composite index for these
small stones, but it is hail larger than one and one quarter inch in
diameter that will, in many cases, elevate the threat level of a
warning one level. The hail index was designed this way because
it is at this size (1.25 in. or larger) that significant damage will be
done to automobiles.
Since time is crucial during any severe
weather event, calculations for the index would be determined
automatically, based on inputs by the warning forecaster into a free
standing graphical user interface (GUI) based on expected wind speed,
hail size, cloud to ground lightning strikes, and hourly rainfall
totals. These calculations would assign a threat level to each
warning issued. Once a threat level is determined, the forecaster
would select the appropriate level in the WarnGen GUI. Call to
action statements would need to be created that are designed for each
threat level.
In the near future, a scale such as this could
be used by a meteorologist to rapidly create and update, though
graphical interfaces, detailed temporal and spatial thunderstorm
forecasts. Use of more advanced radars, mesonets and other
technologies, as well as improved mesoscale models will empower the
future NWS forecaster to produce finely detailed forecasts of
thunderstorm hazards. Both text and graphical products would be
generated based upon the forecaster's input. Text products would
contain threat descriptions and call-to-action statements based upon
the forecaster input. Graphical and GIS applications would be
utilized by the public and private sectors.
As the public and others become aware of the
new threat levels, they will quickly identify and relate the threat
levels to the strength of storms they experience. This scale, if
used, could contribute to the goal of the NWS, which is to protect life
and property whenever severe weather threatens.
SVRGIS: Geographic
Information System (GIS) Graphical Database of
Tornado, Large Hail, and Damaging Wind Reports in the United States
(1950-2005). Bryan Smith, Ball State University, Muncie, IN
For many years
meteorologists have
used existing severe weather report databases to identify regions where
greater documentation of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind
reports exist. Recent user-friendly software programs such as
SeverePlot ver. 2.0, developed by John Hart of the NOAA/NWS Storm
Prediction Center, allow users to query severe weather reports.
SVRGIS builds on the idea of querying data, allowing users to run
advanced queries overlaying Storm Data reports with other
meteorological and non-meteorological data. Basic queries overlay
geographical data, such as incorporated city areas, with queried severe
reports. One example of a more advanced query technique is to
query documented violent damage-rated tornadoes from 1950-2005 and
apply line density analysis techniques to investigate where violent
tornadoes occurred with higher spatial density with respect to U.S.
2000 census population data.
With the availability of Storm Data severe
weather reports in text file format via the Storm Prediction Center s
Severe Weather Database and GIS technology, a GIS severe weather report
database (1950-2005) was developed in order for users to investigate
possible relationships with meteorological and non-meteorological
data. SVRGIS is unique because it allows users to overlay
multiple data types for analysis. This presentation will describe
the data collection and post-processing techniques used to construct a
GIS severe reports climatology, display queried meteorological and
non-meteorological data, and consider relationships between the
1950-2005 Storm Data and non-meteorological databases.
Cyclone Saturday: A Review of
the Teamwork and Technology during the 12
November 2005 Iowa Tornadoes. John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA,
and Daryl Herzmann, Iowa State University, Ames, IA
On 12 November 2005, a series of late
season
supercell storms moved across Central Iowa, striking three
communities. Due to a combination of timely NWS warnings, live
webcam/stormchaser video and continuous media broadcasts, few injuries
and only one death occurred. The event was also unique in that a
NCAA College football game with 50,000 fans in Ames, Iowa was about to
begin when a tornado passed within three miles of the stadium.
Performance of the Experimental 4.5
km WRF-NMM Model During Recent
Severe Weather Outbreaks. Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction
Center, John S. Kain, NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, David
R. Bright, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK and Matthew E.
Pyle, Zavisa I. Janjic and Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS
Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD
The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling
Center has been running an experimental high resolution version of the
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model
(NMM) for the NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center since April
2004. This model is run with 4.5 km grid length and 35 vertical
levels over a domain covering approximately the eastern three-fourths
of the United States. It is currently initialized from a cold
start once daily at 0000 UTC using initial and lateral boundary
conditions from the operational North American Mesoscale model, and
provides forecasts through a 36 hour period. The WRF-NMM4 does
not employ parameterized convection, and all precipitation is generated
from the explicit Ferrier cloud microphysics scheme.
Initial testing of this model began as part of
the 2004 SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment, a multi-agency collaborative
program within the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed that brings together
forecasters, researchers, and model developers to explore topics of
mutual interest. In particular, recent Spring Experiments have
focused on assessing the operational utility of high-resolution models
to provide unique information about convective initiation, evolution,
and mode for SPC severe weather forecasters. Over the last two
years, the WRF-NMM4 has been periodically upgraded and currently runs
using the community WRF version 2 framework.
Several unique WRF-NMM4 products have been
developed for use by severe weather forecasters, including simulated
reflectivity and a measure of updraft rotation in model-generated
storms. These guidance products are made available to SPC
forecasters on a daily basis, and WRF-NMM4 products have been routinely
incorporated into the SPC operational decision-making process.
Although Spring 2005 was relatively inactive
for tornado outbreaks, a number of major tornado and severe
thunderstorm occurred during the period from late Fall 2005 into the
Spring of 2006. We examine the performance of the WRF-NMM4 during
ten major outbreak days from November 2005 through May 2006, focusing
on the ability of the model to provide improved guidance for convective
initiation, intensity, mode and evolution. Implications for the
use of high-resolution model data in an operational forecasting
environment are also presented.
THE 11-13 MARCH 2006 MID-SOUTH
TORNADO OUTBREAK...WHY IT NEVER
OCCURRED. Dan Valle, NOAA/NWS Memphis, TN
There were numerous indications of a
major
tornado outbreak across the Mid South. Summer-like heat combined with
unusually high low level moisture to produce extreme instability for
several days. Tremendous deep layer and low-level shear suggested the
development of tornadic supercells. Two upper level short-wave troughs
embedded in the strong southwesterly flow were expected to move through
the area.
The first short wave forced a cold front to
move to the Missouri/Arkansas border during the evening of the 11th and
into the early morning of the 12th. GFS and NAM models initiated
convection over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. This was
the result of a strengthening low level jet interacting with the front
to break a weak cap over the region. The second short wave would arrive
the next night. This short wave would drag the cold front through the
region. The severe weather parameters for this second short wave were
high as well. Both GFS and NAM indicated discrete storms developing
over central Arkansas before merging into a solid line near the
Mississippi River.
A tornado outbreak did occur; however, it was
over western and east-central Missouri. There were no reports of
tornadoes over the Mid-South region. This presentation will help
forecasters better predict outbreaks by explaining why this forecast
did not evolve as anticipated.
SESSION: Special Tribute to the late Dr. Roderick
A.
Scofield, NWA Past-president
Estimating Rainfall from GOES
Satellite Imagery - The Early
Years. Samuel K. Beckman, NOAA/NWS Training Center, Kansas City,
MO
Beginning in the late 1970s, crude
methods
were used to estimate rainfall from GOES satellite imagery.
Convective cloud-top expansion rates in half-hourly IR satellite
imagery were measured using a hand held template of cloud top growth
distance intervals. The half-hourly IR satellite cloud-top
temperatures and cloud-top growth were applied to an empirically
derived decision tree initially developed by Scofield and Oliver and
later improved by Scofield. The improved techniques by Scofield
will be discussed.
This presentation will show unique original
maps, messages, shift logs, images and techniques used in estimating
rainfall from GOES satellite imagery prior to automation by the
Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS.
A GOES-Eye View of Rod
Scofield’s Legacy. Robert J. Kuligowski,
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Camp Springs, MD.
On 25 February 2006, Rod Scofield passed
away
from complications related to cancer. He left behind a
substantial legacy in the area of using satellite data to estimate and
predict rainfall for flash flood applications, including the
development of an automated technique that is now used by operational
forecasters in many parts of the world. He also had a tremendous
personal impact on the many forecasters, scientists, teachers, and
secondary school students who received training and encouragement from
him. This talk will review Rod s substantial contributions in
both research and outreach and will touch upon current developments
that are building upon his legacy.
Statewide Monitoring of the
Mesoscale Environment: A Technical Update
on the Oklahoma Mesonet. Ken Crawford and Renee A. McPherson, Oklahoma
Climatological Survey, Norman, OK,
Established as a multi-purpose network,
the
Oklahoma Mesonet operates more than 110 surface observing stations that
send data every 5 minutes to an operations center for data quality
assurance, product generation, and dissemination. Quality-assured data
are available within 5 minutes of the observation time. Since 1994, the
Oklahoma Mesonet has collected 3.5 billion weather and soil
observations and produced millions of decision-making products for its
customers. The presentation will highlight the technical advances the
Oklahoma Mesonet has achieved since its inception
Cloud Lightning From the National
Lightning Detection Network (NLDN).
Ronald L. Holle, Nicholas Demetriades, and Martin Murphy, Vaisala,
Inc., Tucson, AZ
The Vaisala National Lightning Detection
Network (NLDN) has been providing cloud-to-ground (CG) flash and stroke
data over the continental United States for more than a decade.
This CG flash and stroke operational datastream has recently been
enhanced to provide a portion of the cloud flashes that do not strike
ground.
Cloud lightning flashes can be detected most
efficiently using VHF line-of-sight lightning detection systems that
can cover a metropolitan area or a portion of a US state. These
networks detect over 90% of all cloud and CG lightning flashes.
The total horizontal extent of flashes can be mapped in detail with VHF
systems, and some of the vertical channel is also described. But
such VHF systems are limited in areal coverage by the requirement that
the source be within line of sight of several sensors.
By contrast, low frequency (LF) systems such
as the NLDN can cover an entire continent. However, LF systems detect
almost exclusively the vertical channel associated with a cloud flash.
Moreover, cloud flash signals are typically much weaker in intensity
than CGs in the LF band in which the NLDN sensors operate. While the
distance between NLDN sensors was determined primarily by the
requirement to detect CG flashes and strokes, a small percentage of the
cloud flashes can also be detected and these data are now available.
Simulations and ground truth data show that 10% to 20% of all cloud
flashes are being detected over the NLDN domain at a typical location
accuracy of 1 km
The vertical channel segments of cloud flashes
are typically located near the initiation point of the flash.
Most NLDN cloud flash locations are near the convective cores of
thunderstorms, in the vicinity of the highest density of CG
flashes. Since LF cloud flashes often occur somewhat before the
first CG flash or stroke in a storm, LF cloud flashes add temporal and
spatial definition to thunderstorms seen with CG flashes; examples will
be shown. There are estimated to be around three times as many cloud
flashes as CG flashes; this ratio varies by region of the US. Given the
greater frequency of cloud flashes, but poorer detection efficiency of
the network for cloud flashes, we can show that the ratio of detected
cloud flashes to detected CG flashes is consistent with our estimates
of cloud flash detection efficiency.
Poster Session I
P1.1 Assessment of Kean University Configured Real Time WRF. Shing Yoh,
Kean University, and Braden Ward, Kean University.
Since late summer of 2005, Kean University
Department of Geology & Meteorology has successfully configured and
has been running the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in
real time. The model grid resolution is about 15 km. The
model domain covers northeastern United States and is centered over New
Jersey. The WRF model is run once a day starting 00 UTC for 36
hour forecast and hourly output are generated for analysis.
Without using any advance or workstation class computer, a personal
computer from the student computer laboratory takes about 6 hours to
complete the 36 hour forecast. Hence the 00 UTC run will be
available in the morning for faculty, students and other professionals
to use. Results from this real time WRF forecast is shared
publicly through the meteorology department s website
(http://hurri.kean.edu).
The WRF surface forecasts were compared with
surface observations at conventional SAO locations.
Statistics such as mean bias and mean absolute error has been generated
since August 2005. It was found that the WRF interpolated surface
forecasts compared well with NCEP MOS. More evaluations will be
done and applications are also being developed to use this locally
configured WRF model to enhance local real time analyses and short term
forecast.
In terms of undergraduate education,
modeling work and the use of high resolution weather forecasting model
have been gradually incorporated into several of the class offerings
(e.g., Synoptic, Thermodynamics, Physical Meteorology; Methods in
Geoscience and Introduction to Meteorology) and the faculty has
involved students in the process through independent research. These
will help form the basis of an operational environment at Kean
University meteorology program.
P1.2 Sounding The "Muck Fire" Alarm -- Could It Return To Northeast
Ohio? Dale A. Dockus, FedEx Corp.
The spring of 2006 has witnessed the return of
the weather phenomena known as "muck fog." During exceptionally
dry periods, highly compacted vegetation called muck is
susceptible to fire and, once ignited, can smolder for
extended periods of time above or below ground. Under ideal
weather conditions for fog (including the existence of a low-level
temperature inversion), a muck fire can locally reduce surface
visibility to virtually zero. Early in the month of May
2006 in Brevard County, Florida, such conditions were blamed for
numerous multiple-car collisions along its interstate highways --
resulting in serious injuries and even fatalities. These dire
consequences are strikingly similar to a previously envisioned scenario
on the west side of Akron, Ohio, where several freeways
have been built since the area's last recorded muck fog episode in the
mid-1960's (enhanced at that time by significant air pollution
generated from since-departed local industrial sources). At a
weather workshop held in Cleveland in 2001, the author presented the
historical background of once-common muck fog in the lowlands referred
to as the Copley Swamp, including personal accounts in youth. A
major point of emphasis was that Akron had experienced a continuous
improvement in air quality over those 35 years, leading the
author to believe the probability of a repeat event to be quite
low. However, the recent Florida incident offers proof that
muck fires can produce dangerously low visibilities even in "clean air"
locations. Therefore, the scenario for "the perfect muck fog" for
northeast Ohio shall be readdressed.
P1.3 Atmospheric Blocking Patterns and Effects on Air Quality in the
Great Lakes Region. Frank Dempsey, Pickering, ON, Canada.
The effects of patterns of persistent positive height anomalies causing
blocked flow in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, mostly known
as Rex and Omega blocks, are well known for resulting regional patterns
of temperatures and precipitation anomalies, and the resulting impacts
on a wide range of weather effects. The sensible weather and resulting
air quality at the surface may range from hot and in the unhealthy
category, to cool, cloudy, rainy and in the good category, depending on
location with respect to the block structure in the atmosphere, and may
persist for days. In this poster presentation, an overview of blocking
patterns and recognition of their synoptic characteristics is followed
by an example of a block along with the air quality that resulted in
the Great Lakes area. A survey of some significant air quality episodes
in the Great Lakes area associated with atmospheric blocking patterns
during the past several years is shown to illustrate this particular
result of the blocking patterns.
P1.4 Convective Initiation in New Jersey. Dr. Paul J. Croft, Kean
University, and Steven L. Koenigstein, Justin Lewis, Ryan Matthews,
Mike Szczepanski and Melissa C. Rod, all students at Kean
University, Union, NJ
Summer thunderstorm activity is often
discontinuous in space (e.g., linear, isolated, clustered, scattered,
widespread), sporadic in time (diurnal versus any time of day), and
difficult to predict precisely in many areas of the United States
(e.g., a 30% chance forecast). This thunderstorm activity
in New Jersey is important to a variety of interests due to its
panorama of effects which may include: cloud cover, lightning, heavy
rainfall, flash flooding, hail, gusty winds, and on occasion pulse
severity (i.e., causing property damage or be life threatening).
Therefore, in order to better cope with and be prepared for these
impacts, convective initiation in New Jersey was examined during the
summer as a function of sea breeze and other local circulations and
factors as compared with synoptic and physiographic forcing. The goal
was to improve recognition of the features and forcing relevant to the
operational prediction of convection so that forecast improvements may
be made through more effective use of satellite and radar imagery,
local data sources and surface and upper-air observations. These
provide a predictive methodology to diagnose convective activity in
terms of timing, location, duration, and coverage. The methodology
includes information pertinent to thermodynamic and dynamic features,
spatial and temporal analyses and trends, and real-time mesoscale
modeling output information (as run by the Department). The data
collected and analyzed provide a unique sampling of the
statistical family of convective activity that occurs in
New Jersey and is, therefore, of value for application to any
summer season.
P1.5 Mesoscale Features in New Jersey: Initial Investigations. Dr. Paul
J. Croft, Kean University, Melissa C. Rod, Kean University, Belkys V.
Melendez, Kean University, and Ryan Matthews, Kean University.
The occurrence of mesoscale weather variations
is of interest across New Jersey and in the immediate vicinity given
the high population density as well as the diversity of land use,
physiographic features, and the wide range of impacts from both
hazardous weather and even routine conditions (e.g., local
circulations). In an initial attempt to ascertain the characteristics
and behaviors of these, efforts are underway at Kean University to
involve students in local studies and targeted investigations of
specific features. During the spring of 2006, students performed a
preliminary investigation of characteristics and behaviors of the
rain-snow line and sea breeze. The intent was to examine the types of
data that would assist spatially and temporally in specifying the
resultant sensible weather conditions across the state and to determine
how these vary with time as a function of local variations (e.g.,
physiography) and the prevailing synoptic scale flow.
Students accessed data in real-time, as well
as from archived sets as available, to portray surface conditions and
their variations with time and from case to case. Data were collected
and included many variables such as temperature, dewpoint, wind
direction and speed as well as remote sensing information such as
satellite and radar imagery. Specific locations within the state of New
Jersey were also selected so as to consider direct and regional
impacts. Composite analyses were prepared in an effort to assess the
relative importance of a given parameter such as wind direction and
temperature in identifying features of the rain-snow line or sea breeze
and their associated characteristics (e.g., orientation of boundaries,
length and width) and behaviors (e.g., intensity, progression). These
were then considered with regard to the prevailing synoptic flow and
physiographic features in the region. Initial results are expected to
provide information relevant to the identification of the family of
local circulations and their modes of behavior that will be useful in
operational applications.
P1.6 The Mississippi Mesonet: Growth and Applications. Loren White,
Jackson State University, Elizabeth Matlack, Jackson State University,
Quincy Jones, Jackson State University, and Gary Galloway, Newton
County Emergency Management Agency.
The initial prototype phase of the Mississippi
Mesonet was completed in 2006. We will discuss the current status of
the network, challenges that have been encountered, and applications of
the data by various stakeholders. Some applications of note have
included use by National Weather Service forecasters, inclusion in
MADIS, emergency management, K-12 outreach activities, and support for
hydrological studies. Meteorological researchers at Jackson State
University, the University of South Alabama, and Mississippi State
University are using the data to study nocturnal warming events,
land-surface interactions, hurricane landfall, and atmospheric
dispersion. The growth of the network to date will be evaluated with
respect to future plans and funding needs.
P1.7 A Comparison of Wind Speed Data from Mechanical and Ultrasonic
Anemometers. David A. Short, ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL,
Leonard Wells, 30th Weather Squadron, Vandenberg AFB, CA, Francis
Merceret, NASA/KSC/Weather Office, FL and WIlliam P. Roeder, 45th
Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL.
This study compared the performance of
mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at the Eastern Range (ER; Kennedy
Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on Florida s Atlantic
coast) and the Western Range (WR; Vandenberg Air Force Base on
California s Pacific coast). Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and
Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind
sensors at the ER and WR for weather warnings, watches, advisories,
special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts,
user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic
dispersion support. The current ER and WR weather tower wind
instruments are being changed from the current propeller-and-vane (ER)
and cup-and-vane (WR) sensors to ultrasonic sensors through the Range
Standardization and Automation (RSA) program.
The differences between mechanical and
ultrasonic techniques have been found to cause differences in the
statistics of peak wind speed in previous studies. The 45th Weather
Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the
Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between RSA and current
sensors to determine if there are significant differences.
Approximately 3 weeks of Legacy and RSA wind
data from each range were used in the study, archived during May and
June 2005. The ER data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the WR
data was confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data
from numerous levels on 5 different towers on each range totaled more
than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality
control). The 10 towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging
from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The RSA sensors were
collocated at the same vertical levels as the present sensors and
typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total
of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with present sensors were
compared. The 1-minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second
peak wind speed/direction were compared. The overall results
follow:
Overall Average Wind Speed:
Present 8.56 kt, RSA 8.87 kt,
RSA
- Present = + 0.29 kt,
standard deviation = 1.17 kt
Overall Peak Wind
Speed:
Present 10.72 kts, RSA 11.78 kt,
RSA - Present = + 1.06 kt,
standard deviation = 1.59 kt
The AMU also examined each Present/RSA pairing
for consistency in wind speed and wind direction. The most consistent
sensors were used to define a composite average-Present/RSA
comparison. Comparisons of the consistent composite were slightly
different than the overall comparison cited above.
Composite Average Speed:
Present 8.80 kt, RSA 9.14 kt,
RSA - Present =
+ 0.34 kt,
standard
deviation = 0.94 kt
Composite Peak Speed:
Present 10.95 kt, RSA 11.93
kt,
RSA - Present = + 0.98 kt,
standard
deviation = 1.38 kt
From a technical point of view the small
differences in average wind speeds reported by the Present and RSA
sensors are statistically significant, due to the small standard
deviations (0.94 kt) and the large sample size. In addition, the
average difference in the average wind speed was less than the expected
error from the combined precision of the sensors (0.50 kt). From a
practical point of view the differences in peak wind speeds are more
important, indicating that the change to ultrasonic sensors can be
expected to result in an increase in reported peak wind speeds. An
increase in peak wind speeds would result in a decrease of launch
availability, depending on the LCC threshold wind speed. For example,
the probability of peak wind speeds at 20 kts or less using the ER
Present data was 95.2%. For the same 20 kt threshold the ER RSA data
showed a probability of 92.3%, a potential loss of launch availability
of up to 2.9%. Full details are available under final reports at
http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/home.html.
P1.8 GOES-R Instrument CONOPS Considerations. Thomas Renkevens,
NOAA/NESDIS, Tim Walsh, NOAA/NESDIS.
The enhanced flexibility and performance of
the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R
instrument payloads will present a number of operational opportunities
relative to the current observational system. With an expected
launch readiness date in the 2012 timeframe, GOES-R will have two
primary earth-pointing instruments, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI)
and the Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES), which will have
significantly improved spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution over
the GOES-I/M and GOES-NOP series Imager and Sounder.
Based on anticipated performance and
operational flexibility improvements, the scan scenarios of the ABI and
HES will be carefully considered and optimized for appropriate
inclusion in the system Concept of Operations (CONOPS). The two
primary objectives of this poster are to inform the extended GOES user
community of the advanced operational flexibility of the GOES-R
instruments and to stimulate discussion as to what types of operational
scenarios and ground system improvements may be possible in the 2012
time frame. Improvements for consideration may include
enhanced ground and on-board tasking techniques (including possible
inter- and intra-platform tasking) and improved collaboration with the
customer community.
P1.9 Recent Improvements to the AMSU Hydrological Product Suite. Ralph
R.Ferraro, NOAA/NESDIS.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)/National Environmental Satellite, Data and
Information Service (NESDIS) generates a suite of operational
hydrological cycle products from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
(AMSU). These products include precipitation rate, total
precipitable water (TPW), cloud liquid and ice water paths, land
surface temperature, snow cover extent and water equivalent, and
sea-ice concentration. These products, generated from NOAA s
polar orbiting satellites, are used in a host of applications including
short-term weather forecasting and warning, numerical weather
prediction model data assimilation and climate assessments.
Several upgrades to the AMSU product suite have been recently
developed, including better screening of the TPW product under heavy
rain conditions, better coastline precipitation retrievals and a
preliminary snowfall rate algorithm. Additionally, this product
suite will be generated for the METOP-1 satellite (July 2006
launch). It is the purpose of this poster presentation to
illustrate the recent product improvements through a variety of
application examples, and to discuss the future products and missions
anticipated over the next decade.
P1.10 Remote Sensing Applications and Technologies: The Africa
Challenges.
Kenneth Rumi Ayadiani, Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Lagos, Nigeria
The overall objective of this paper is
to assess the imperativeness of the use of Remote Sensing
Application and Technologies in natural disaster mitigation in Africa
with Nigeria as a case study. The Meteorological and hydrological
hazards which form part of a group of such increasing devastating
phenomena and their major data source which are not only point specific
but sparse were reviewed. Some guidelines for action as regard the
ultimate need of data with wide aerial coverage of the globe through
Remote Sensing coupled with the pursuit of enhanced capacity building
and technology transfer which will enable early detection and warning
to curb some of there disasters and their perilous socio-economic
implications are considered prime objectives.
P1.11 Changes in precipitation water vapor sensed by ground based GPS
in Three Gorges Region. Rong Wan, Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain of
China Meteorological Administration, Ruilin Du, Institute of Seismology
of China Earthquake Administration, Guoguang Zheng, China
Meteorological Administration, and, Wei Wang, Institute of Seismology
of China Earthquake Administration.
Scientists studying the environmental
issues associated with the Three Gorges hydropower project believed
that there was the potential for some negative effects on environment,
including modifications to the local and surrounding areas climate over
time. Since the land was covered by water during the initial filling
stage, the dynamical condition and water vapour transportation could be
changed in the local area. Three Gorges reservoir was filled to 135
meters above sea level on June 2003. According to the current plan, the
Three Gorges reservoir will be filled to 156 meters in 2006 and raised
to its final level of 175 meters in 2009. The local water vapour
change, using the Integrated Precipitation Water Vapour (PWV) sensed by
GPS, during the first impoundment will be described in this
paper.
The study is based on time series of PWV
sensed by GPS sites at interval of 2 hour from 2000 to 2005 using
China’s seismic monitoring networks and the Three Gorges crust
deformation monitoring network. In the article, we will compare PWV
sensed by GPS with upper air soundings, and adjust the local parameters
by using surface observational data history. It was found that GPS PWV
value is in good agreement with the range of rain gauge values observed
in spring rainy season. The PWV annual and seasonal change before and
after the initial impoundment of Three Gorges reservoir were analyzed
respectively. The results showed obvious changes in WVP within the
Three Gorges region during spring and winter seasons between before and
after the first impoundment.
P1.12 Building a Florida Centric Road Weather Information System.
Patrick T. Welsh, University of North Florida, and J. David Lambert,
University of North Florida
Over the past four years, the University of
North Florida and its partners have built the first phases of the
Florida DOT Road Weather Information System. Nearly 500
miles of Florida Interstate are now covered by a real-time data system
at about twenty mile intervals. The network design and
implementation were done by graduate students in electrical engineering
and computer information systems.
The data model is one that is shared at
the National level as raw data, but is available to the private sector
for value-added products, as was done in the iFlorida Project with
Meteorlogix.
This talk will briefly describe the progress
to date and the future of the Florida RWIS, and a vision that the RWIS
and the upcoming FHWA Clarus System are much more than data to directed
to traffic managers.
P1.13 The Hazard Mapping System (HMS) – A Multiplatform Remote Sensing
Approach to Fire and Smoke Detection for Air Quality. Jamie Kibler,
NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD, John Simko, NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD, Shobha
Kondragunta, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Roland Draxler, NOAA/OAR/ARL, and
Po Li, QSS.
The HMS is a multiplatform remote sensing
approach to detecting smoke and fires over the US (including Alaska and
Hawaii), Canada, Mexico and Central America. This system is an
integral part of the Satellite Services Division s near realtime
hazards detection and mitigation efforts. The system utilizes
NOAA s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), Polar
Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), and the Moderate
Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA s Terra
and Aqua spacecraft. Automated fire detection algorithms are employed
for each of the satellites, but additional fire points not detected by
the algorithms may be added by the satellite analyst. Smoke is
annotated by the satellite analyst with points for significant smoke
producing fires provided as input to the Air Resources Lab (ARL) Hybrid
Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) that
is run daily to provide guidance on smoke trajectories and dispersion
over the US, Canada, and Mexico
(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/smoke/forecast.html). Improvements to the
HYSPLIT input from the HMS are an integral part of the NWS and EPA Air
Quality Forecast initiative. Additional data from the GOES
Aerosol and Smoke Product (GASP -
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/GASP/gasp.html) and the MODIS aerosol product
are being evaluated to determine characteristics of smoke
density.
Customers for the HMS include the National
Weather Service, US Forest Service, Environmental Protection Agency,
researchers, as well as numerous federal, state, and local land and air
quality managers. All of the analyzed fire and smoke information
is posted to a web page (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/) for viewing
in either a graphical static jpg format or via a Geographic Information
System (GIS) viewer. The GIS page allows for the display of
multiple layers with roam and zoom capabilities. An archive
site for the daily HMS analysis is available at
www.ngdc.noaa.gov/website/firedetects/viewer.htm.
P1.14 GOES Satellite Data Distribution: Past, Present, and Future.
Thomas Renkevens, NOAA/NESDIS, John Paquette, NOAA/NESDIS.
The past decade has seen a tremendous change
in the distribution of operational satellite data to key users.
Systems such as GOES-TAP and the Satellite Field Distribution
Facilities (SFDF), Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch Advanced
Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System
(RAMSDIS), Satellite Weather Information System (SWIS) and Micro
Satellite Weather Information System (MICROSWIS) have been the mainstay
for satellite data distribution and display up through the late
90s. With the advent of NOAAPORT and AWIPS (Advanced Weather
Interactive Processing System), the flow of real time digital satellite
data and products to the National Weather Service increased
significantly. Additional satellite derived products continue to
be added to the NOAAPORT data stream.
The next generation GOES-R geostationary
satellite series first launch planned no earlier than late 2012 will
host a powerful multispectral imager and hyperspectral sensors,
directed at acquiring significantly more information on the atmosphere,
land, ocean, and coastal areas. The great amount of information
from the GOES-R series will offer a continuation of current products
and services, and allow for improved or new capabilities. The
Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Hyperspectral Environmental
Suite (HES) on GOES-R will enable much improved monitoring and research
compared to current capabilities. There will be at least a factor of
four increase in the number of products from the GOES-R system.
In the GOES-R era, raw sensor data rates are
expected to reach approximately 132 Mbps, compared to 2.6 Mbps from
each of today's GOES. NOAA is investigating alternatives, including the
use of X-Band spectrum, for the raw sensor downlink to Wallops Island
to accommodate the downlink of these large data volumes to the ground.
The GOES re-broadcast to its U.S. and foreign users will continue in
the L-band RF spectrum, but will be more efficiently used and will have
an expanded bandwidth. Even so, the GOES-R series satellite
communications capability in the L-band will be restricted, from the
available bandwidth and technology, up to 24 Mbps. The two types of
data that are currently being considered for GOES-R data distribution
are the availability of a full set of this data (GFUL) and a GOES-R
Rebroadcast (GRB) of a yet to be determined subset of this data.
GFUL contains the full ABI, HES, and other instruments Level 1b data
sets, providing a data rate of more than 100 Mbps.
With the rapid changes in communications, many
options exist for the re-distribution of the calibrated/navigated data
and products in the GOES-R era (GOES-R satellite, commercial satellite,
dedicated landlines, hybrid broadcasts consisting of both satellite and
landlines). There are many design options possible that are
currently being studied by the three GOES-R Program Definition and Risk
Reduction (PDRR) contractors. Fundamental to this is the
continued use of satellite broadcasting. Many aspects of the
distribution are being investigated and have not yet been determined,
for example, how much and what is the nature of the data that needs to
be rebroadcast via the GOES-R satellite. The appropriate data
format(s) for GOES sensor science data in the GOES-R era are also being
investigated. The amount of radiance data versus products has not
been determined regarding the GRB.
At this time, the infrastructure impact on
user sites for the GOES-R series data to be acquired and processed has
not been determined. Many current key data distribution systems
such as NOAAPORT, McIDAS, and IDD have acknowledged the increased data
rates and have begun discussions or planning for these large
increases. The archive and access functionality is currently
performed by the Comprehensive Large Array and Stewardship System
(CLASS). This system exists and contains data from GOES and other
observing systems, including POES
and in the future NPOESS and GOES-R.
P1.15 UPWARDS at Kean! Year II: AGENTS of Change. Paul J.
Croft, Kean University.
A second year expansion of the program,
Undergraduates Providing Weather Activities for Research and
Development of Skills at Kean University (UPWARDS at Kean!) , has
included additional students at Kean University in order to serve a
wide diversity of fellow students, the general public, and educational
communities during the summer and throughout the academic year. Thus
the UPWARDS at Kean! program has begun a phase of providing
AGENTS (Atmospheric and Geoscience Education Nexus
Trailblazing Students) of change in educating others in the atmospheric
and related sciences.
The Kean University undergraduate Meteorology
Program, within the Department of Geology and Meteorology, continues to
provide a variety of outreach and professional development
opportunities. These include activities for K-12 audiences (e.g.,
Upward Bound), teacher training and professional development (MISE),
and undergraduate students (Epsilon Corps Institute). While
conceptualized and delivered by faculty and other professionals,
undergraduate students play key roles in the education process by their
assistance, participation, mentoring, and advising with these diverse
populations.
Programs have included the exploration of
scientific principles, measurement and interpretation of data, and the
use of these to assess and explain the characteristics and behaviors of
various environmental systems and the application of science and
technology. In addition, majors and faculty have direct interaction
with K-12 students (e.g., summer research projects at high schools),
fellow college students (e.g., as a scientific resource for the
Cougar’s Byte and on campus television studio), and
discipline experts (e.g., News12 New Jersey).
Future plans include the participation of
students and faculty in an operational (and outreach support)
geo-weather research center in association with the Center for Earth
Science Education within the Department of Geology and Meteorology.
Students may provide important outreach to the broader community both
on and off campus. This will be an important conduit for information
transfer and education and in the process give students opportunities
to develop their outreach skills while gaining practical experience.
P1.16 Turn Around Don't Drown (R) : A Campaign Built on Partnerships.
Hector Guerrero, NOAA/NWS San Angelo, TX, Leslie Chapman-Henderson,
Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, Roy Sedwick, Texas Flood Plain
Management, Larry Wenzel, NWS Headquarters Hydrologic Services
Division, and Kandis Boyd, NWS Southern Region Hydrologic Service
Branch.
NOAA’s National Weather Service and the
Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) Turn Around Don’t Drown ®
(TADD) flood safety campaign continues to gain momentum since it was
launched in 2003 as local and national television media partners
continue to broadcast this life-saving slogan before and during
significant flood events that have impacted our nation.
Meanwhile, strong partnerships with FLASH, Allstate
Foundation, Lower River Colorado Authority, National Safety
Council, Federal Highway Administration, Flood Plain Management
Associations, emergency management, communities and many more public
and private entities have fostered the creative development and
implementation of TADD projects and activities across "flash flood
alleys" within our country enabling Americans to make the right
decision to turn around.
The purpose of this talk is to show how
critically important these partnerships are to the expansion of the
TADD campaign since it was launched in 2003. Because of these
great partnerships, this life saving slogan has taken a life of its own
as more and more Americans make the right decision when they encounter
a flooded roadway. Finally, an analysis of the “Turn Around Don't
Drown” slogan will be discussed to show it's overall effectiveness.
P1.17 Timmy The Twister: Raising Daily Community Severe Weather
Awareness.
Dan Valle, Jim Belles and Rich Okulski, NOAA/NWS Memphis, TN and Amanda
Roberts, NOAA/NWS/LMRFC, Slidell, LA.
The National Weather Service's Memphis
Forecast Office created the character "Timmy the Twister" in 2005 to
raise daily severe weather awareness in small communities. "Timmy
the Twister" is based on the United States Forest Service's highly
successful "Smokey the Bear" campaign which raised the awareness of
fire danger in national forests.
The Memphis Weather Forecast Office has
created brochures, educational materials and most importantly large
signs to hang in public areas such as fire departments and town
halls. The signs show whether the daily severe weather hazard is
none, slight, moderate, or high. These hazard levels are based on
the Storm Prediction Center's Day One Categorical Convective Outlook.
There are two prototype "Timmy the Twister"
signs in Ponotoc, Mississippi and Caruthersville, Missouri. The
sign in Caruthersville was shown on cable television stations such as
MSNBC and The Weather Channel in the aftermath of the April 2nd F3
damage tornado. This strong tornado moved directly through
Caruthersville (population: 6,800) and damaged 500 homes. Only 65
people were injured and no one died! The city emergency manager
attributed this amazing statistic in part to "Timmy the Twister."
The Memphis Weather Forecast Office received
several calls and e-mail requests for "Timmy the Twister" signs in the
aftermath of the Caruthersville tornado. It is our vision to make
"Timmy the Twister" an integral part of the NWS's StormReady
program. Current and new StormReady communities would receive a
sign to enhance their severe weather awareness and preparedness.
P1.18 Tornado Safety Recommendations for Persons in Mobile Homes or
Motor Vehicles. Thomas W. Schmidlin, Kent State University.
Federal government and Red Cross tornado
safety recommendations state that persons who are in mobile homes or
vehicles when a tornado warning is issued should seek shelter outdoors
in a ditch or depression, if a sturdy building is not available for
shelter. There is no research to support this
recommendation. In fact, several researchers have found results
contrary to the recommendation. Previous research on tornado
hazards is reviewed and is combined with our work in the field and in a
wind tunnel to suggest revisions in the tornado safety recommendations
for persons in mobile homes and vehicles.
P1.19 The NOAA Center for Atmospheric Sciences: Impacts to the
Meteorological Community. Loren White, Rezwanul Karim, R.S. Reddy, and
Duanjun Lu, Jackson State University, and Vernon Morris, Howard
University.
The NOAA Center for Atmospheric Sciences
(NCAS) has been funded since 2001 by the NOAA Educational Partnership
Program for Minority Serving Institutions (EPP/MSI) to significantly
impact the matriculation of minority students toward advanced degrees
in the atmospheric sciences and to pursue interdisciplinary atmospheric
research of relevance to the NOAA mission. Led by Howard University, a
consortium of university partners was developed which includes Jackson
State University, the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez, and the
University of Texas at El Paso. Major research efforts have focused on
application of the MM5 and WRF models for convective initiation and
tropical cyclones, health and climatic impacts of Saharan dust
transport, urban air chemistry, and air-sea interaction. Major
observational programs which have developed include the Mississippi
Mesonet, the Beltsville, MD intensive monitoring site, and several
research cruises emphasizing the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Weather Camps
and specialized training workshops have been developed to complement
the educational and research programs of the consortium. During the
initial funding period, NCAS has dramatically increased the pipeline
for minority students continuing on a Ph.D. in atmospheric science,
including giving them exposure to NOAA operations through various
internships and research collaboration. Although the NCAS institutions
interact with a large number of NOAA offices and personnel, the most
common NOAA partners have been NCEP-EMC, the Air Resources Lab (ARL),
and local weather forecast offices (WFOs).
P1.20 How Broadcast News Shapes Memories of Severe Weather: Hurricane
Katrina as a Defining Event. Josh Nathan, Englewood, CO.
Applying Maurice Halbwach’s theory of
collective memory to CNN and FOX broadcasts and replicating an
historical-based methodology (Winfield et al., 2001), this study
suggests President Bush, once admired for his leadership after 9/11, is
now mired in ridicule. After Hurricane Katrina, television news
initially provides primary communications to and from the Gulf
Coast.
Despite White House and Congressional
investigations during 2006 into what went awry and why, which includes
the failure of the first test of the multibillion dollar National
Emergency System, the study finds a government still unprepared to meet
the needs of its nation during catastrophic, but statistically
predicable, natural disasters regardless of warning time from
meteorologists.
P1.21 Empowering Critical Decision Makers: A National Weather Service
and North Carolina Department of Transportation Partnership. Jeff
Orrock and Kermit Keeter, NOAA/NWS Raleigh, NC, and Lonnie Watkins,
North Carolina Department of Transportation
Weather forecasts and services have always
been important to highway engineers from the North Carolina Department
of Transportation (NCDOT) who make key decisions regarding road
maintenance for adverse winter weather. This is especially true now
that roads can be pre-treated; however, the decision to pre-treat roads
must be made 24 to 36 hours prior to the onset of adverse winter
weather. Decision making so far in advance requires more detailed
coordination between National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and
NCDOT critical decision makers engaged in public safety. It also points
to a need for a much better understanding of winter weather forecast
processes by those making the decisions about when and how to best
prepare roads.
In early 2005, the NCDOT and NWS forged a
partnership whose goal was to develop and then implement winter weather
training that would allow for more effective winter weather
coordination between NWS forecasters and NCDOT engineers. The course
evolved by presenting various winter weather materials at regional
meetings of NCDOT engineers. In general, the materials selected for the
course were those that engineers could follow and use in real-time to
make road treatment decisions. The course addressed the nuances of
local winter events as well as the complexity of predicting snow and
ice 24 to 36 hours in advance.
During the 2005-2006 winter weather season,
over 400 NCDOT engineers were trained by the seven NWS forecast offices
serving North Carolina. The training process fostered new partnerships
at the county and district levels enhancing the understanding of each
others needs, abilities and resources. The interactive training
sessions also provided NWS forecasters a better understanding of how
winter forecasts impact NCDOT operations. This partnership between
NCDOT and the NWS offices serving North Carolina is a prime example of
how federal and state government agencies can collaborate to provide
better public service.
This presentation will share the processes
used to conduct science outreach training where critical decision
makers obtain the resources and information needed to ensure more
informed decisions are made. The importance of weather in the
NCDOT decision making process for maintaining roads will be highlighted
as well as the insights gained by forecasters regarding the key weather
parameters and the decision making timeline needed by NCDOT highway
engineers. Finally, examples of how this outreach training has resulted
in better road maintenance and economical savings will be
featured.
P1.22 NOAA Weather Radio Awareness Upsurge: Positive Aftermath
Following the Killer Evansville Area Tornado of 6 November 2005.
Matthew T. Friedlein, NOAA/NWS Chanhassen, MN
During the early morning hours of 6 November
2005, a long-lived F3 tornado claimed the lives of 25 people and
injured hundreds near Evansville, Indiana. Many of these injuries
and a majority of the deaths were unaware sleeping residents in the
Eastbrook Mobile Home Park. In response to this tragedy and in
coordination with the National Weather Service, local area media
stressed the 24-hour alert features of NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) to
their viewers and listeners. During the two months that followed the
disaster, a total of more than 40,000 NWR units were purchased or
distributed in the Evansville area. NWS personnel from Paducah, KY and
the area television meteorologists hosted combined NWR outreach
campaigns at local shopping malls. These outreaches were markedly
successful, furthering weather radio promotion and helping several
thousand NWR users by programming their radios and answering
questions. Within a half year of the tornado, it was estimated
that the Evansville
NWR transmitter had more listeners than any in
the country, with a weather radio in nearly one half of the
households. By recounting how these outreaches were conducted and
interpreting survey results from them, it is believed NWR numbers of
these magnitudes can be achieved in other parts of the country through
similar campaigns. These promote NWR as a rapid and additional
life-saving source for severe weather warnings, in particular for
mobile home residents whose shelter may be a few minutes away.
These campaigns also strengthen partnerships between media and NWS
personnel and can be conducted throughout the country to minimize the
likelihood of not receiving a tornado warning.
P1.23 Leveraging Community Organizations to Accomplish Public
All-Hazards Awareness: The West Central Texas All Hazards
Preparedness Campaign. Carl Wright, NOAA/NWS San Angelo, TX, Nicole
Gonzales, Citizens Corps, Kent Brown, Boy Scouts of America, Marissa
Swank, Concho Valley Electric Coop., and Rosendo Velez, New York
Critical Response Medical Services.
A recent Consumer Electronics Survey indicated
that only half the American public has ever heard of a NOAA Weather
Radio and that only 17 percent actually owned one. With an agreement
between NOAA and the Dept of Homeland Security, the NOAA Weather Radio
has been transformed into the NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards that now
alerts for both weather and non-weather hazards. All-Hazards messages
include: Natural (e.g., tornado, hurricane, floods, and earthquakes),
technological accidents (e.g., chemical release, oil spill, nuclear
power plant emergencies, maritime accidents, and train derailments),
AMBER alerts, and terrorist attacks. It is now more important than ever
to educate the public to be all-hazards aware and to the importance
relying on a NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards.
In the winter and spring of 2006,
National Weather Service San Angelo initiated a unique campaign to
partner with as many community organizations in West Central Texas as
possible to raise awareness of the NOAA All-Hazards Radio. Partners
included: Boy Scouts of America, Electric Rural Co-Operatives, Citizen
Corps, Local Emergency Planning Committees, Emergency Managers, Local
Businesses, Texas Governor s Division of Emergency Management, American
Red Cross, Salvation Army, local Television and Radio, City
governments, and others.
The purpose of this presentation is to
show the overall strategy of the campaign and summarize the results of
the campaign. In particular, we will show how we were able to forge
successful new partnerships and how the campaign was organized in such
a way as to ensure that the all-hazards awareness effort continued
after the conclusion of the local campaign. We will show how local
organizations, through the utilization of their existing state-wide
networks, will independently expand the program of all-hazards
awareness to the entire State of Texas.
P1.24 Climate Outreach Toolkit. Patricia A. Wnek, NOAA/NWS
Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, PA.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service (NWS) has increased
its activities in the area of climate and climate related services to
its customers. The NWS Eastern Region Headquarters Climate Team
identified the need to provide a resource for both its local offices
and its customers. A team of NWS climate personnel, composed of field,
regional and national headquarters staff, created a climate outreach
toolkit to support NWS climate outreach. The climate outreach toolkit
will answer basic questions on climate topics, refer media inquiries,
and provide climate education. The toolkit has been deemed a national
prototype by the NWS Climate Services Division.
The toolkit is linked from all NWS field office web sites. It provides
resources, education and information on:
Data and Forecasts
Program Information and Definitions
Climate Science and Training
News and Publications
Media Contacts
This poster will provide an illustrated tour of the toolkit and ideas
for Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and River Forecast Centers (RFCs)
to increase and support climate outreach with their customers.
P1.25 Air Quality Index and Synoptic Weather Type in the Northern
Mid-Atlantic. Dr. Paul J. Croft, Kean University, Belkys V. Melendez,
Kean University.
Daily Air Quality Index (AQI) observations, as
developed and summarized by the United States Environmental Protection
Agency, were collected online for select counties in the northern
mid-Atlantic region (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and
Pennsylvania) for two spring through early summer seasons (April
through July). Data were tabulated according to synoptic flow regimes
in order to examine the relationship of AQI values and behaviors in
time and space to a wide range of weather conditions. Synoptic weather
types were determined by inspection of the Daily Weather Map Series and
included high pressure, low pressure, and frontal systems and their
position relative to the study region. Summary statistics of each
synoptic type s AQI were examined by county (and state) and plotted
across the region in order to interpret any maxima and minima (as well
as data and station quality) and determine whether any identifiable or
obvious patterns or features existed. Results revealed that for
specific weather patterns potential sources, sinks, and transport could
be inferred and can be used to improve the understanding of air quality
as a function of synoptic weather conditions and local or long-distance
transport. Statistical summation also provided useful information for
the comparison of AQI variance and extremes as observed at each
location, according to synoptic type, and in comparison to surrounding
sites.
P1.26 Using Historic Teleconnection Datasets to Identify Abnormal
Weather Regimes in the Missouri Ozarks. John Gagan, NOAA/NWS WFO
Springfield, MO, and Gene Hatch, NOAA/NWS WFO Springfield, MO.
Teleconnection indices, as defined and
quantified by the Climate Prediction Center, will be used in tandem
with daily cooperative observations across the area of responsibility
for the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Springfield, MO
(KSGF). Cycles of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Artic
Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific-North American
Oscillation will be correlated to daily cooperative observations of
maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall and snowfall at select sites
across the KSGF area. Each oscillation will be compared to daily
cooperative observations both individually and in combinations to
identify anomalous weather conditions across the Missouri Ozarks.
P1.27 The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network
(CoCoRaHs) comes to Missouri. Patrick E. Guinan, Missouri Climate
Center / University of Missouri, Anthony R. Lupo,
University of Missouri, Rachel N. Redburn, University of Missouri
/ Missouri Climate Center.
During the spring of 2006, the Community
Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHs) was expanded into
Missouri. CoCoRaHs (www.cocorahs.org) was developed by Colorado State
University in 1998 in order to obtain finer-scale precipitation
measurements using volunteers. Our experience here in Missouri is that
there are many people who would like to volunteer, and they can provide
measurements that of reasonable quality. The Missouri Farm Service
Agency has also agreed to help take measurements and their contribution
gave Missouri coverage in every county. These measurements have already
been used to monitor the progress of drought conditions in Missouri for
the summer of 2006, and provided coverage detailing where large hail
fell during the March 11-12, 2006 severe weather outbreaks.
Additionally, these data are being used in order to identify the
distribution of precipitation in interesting mesoscale events for
research case studies.
P1.28 Blocking in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere: An update to
include 2000 – 2006. Joseph V. Clark, University of Missouri –
Columbia, Kristen M. Mihalka, University of Missouri, and Anthony R.
Lupo, University of Missouri.
Detailed climatologies of blocking
events have been previously published, and these include not only an
examination of the occurrence and duration of blocking, but of the
intensity as well. The goal of this work is to update these
climatologies which have published the characteristics of blocking
occurrence up to about the year 2000. This work will examine the
occurrence of blocking into the early part of the 21st century in order
to develop a continuous archive of blocking events. There are such
archives available for other types of events such as hurricanes or
tornadoes, but currently no available list of individual blocking
events that extends to the current year. Additionally, some of the
conclusions of earlier studies will be investigated such as; has the
well-known decrease in the occurrence of Southern Hemisphere blocking
events found in the late 20th century continuing? Additionally, these
data will provide for a longer data set and as such strengthen the
conclusions of earlier studies regarding ENSO variability. A longer
data set allows for an investigation of interdecadal variability as
well. This study used the NCEP re-analyses in order to be consistent
with the data used by earlier studies.
P1.29 Climatology of Non-Convective Windstorms in the Great Lakes
Region. John A. Knox, University of Georgia
The Great Lakes region routinely experiences
windstorms with damaging gusts of at least 58 mph not associated with
convection. A single windstorm of this type can cause tens of
millions of dollars in damage and several deaths. In addition,
forecasts of these extreme wind events are inexact and often
underestimate the peak gusts involved.
In this research, wind data from the upper
Midwest are used to create climatologies of non-convective wind events
in the Great Lakes region. Multidecadal surface wind data sets
have been used to create two regional climatologies, one of
non-convective winds and another of November 12Z winds. The
results of the first climatology reveal a fall-season spatial trend in
the month of most frequent non-convective winds from northwest to
southeast, from Minnesota in October to Ohio in December. The
second climatology reveals a pronounced southwest quadrant preference
for the strongest winds in the Great Lakes region on November mornings,
a preference that becomes increasingly dominant for the highest
winds. Both of these results imply that the windstorms are more
closely related to mid-latitude cyclones and their mesoscale dynamics
than to geography, in contrast with some published work on this
subject. The implications for operational meteorology in the
Great Lakes will be discussed.
P1.30 October Tropical Cyclone Activity Relative to New Jersey. Dr.
Paul J. Croft, Kean University, Steven L. Koenigstein, Kean University.
Tropical cyclone activity, while important
across the Atlantic Ocean basin, brings significant threats and
potential benefits to the Mid-Atlantic States region. For some
locations, a significant portion of rainfall measured in September is
related to tropical cyclone activity and paths that range from
offshore, near the coast, and inland. In New Jersey the occurrence of
tropical cyclones in late summer and fall is of particular concern
given impacts such as heavy rains and flooding; enhanced tides, rip
currents, and wave action; as well as strong winds and
tornadoes each leading to damage, injury, and death.
Recently the state (and much of the region) experienced record rainfall
for the month of October (2005) due to a persistent and recurring
synoptic pattern as well as a tropical moisture influx that caused
significant and extensive damage. Therefore, it was of interest to
investigate whether this anomaly was related directly to the record
hurricane season, as compared to historical data, and to determine how
the state has been impacted in the past by tropical and non-tropical
weather patterns.
Tropical cyclone data (track maps) were
collected from the Tropical Prediction Center website
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml; see Past Tracks of
Atlantic Tropical Cyclones) and all October tropical activity for the
period 1950-2004 were obtained (including any sub-tropical systems).
These were summarized in terms of total season activity, intensity and
duration, peak intensity, storm occurrence as a percentage of season
activity, and the intensity upon approach and path relative to New
Jersey. Of 126 total October tropical cyclones for the period 1950-2004
(average of 2.3 per October, six years recording none , 55 total
months) many names were used (generally twice for each name, three
times for Josephine; names ranged from D to T )
and the center of 12 (or 9.5%) passed within 350 miles of the
geographic center of the state and were retained for further
examination as having potential impacts. Within each decade (except the
1970s), New Jersey observed at least one October system. The occurrence
of these events indicated that approximately half originated in the
first half of October (7 of 12) with most of the rest (4 of 12)
initiating during the latter half of September. Seven of the storms
were of tropical cyclone or hurricane intensity upon closest approach
to the state while five were extra-tropical or of tropical depression
intensity. The majority of storm tracks relative to New Jersey passed
to the E and SE (10) of the region with only two approaching and
passing to the west.
The data were also examined with regard to
total rainfall across New Jersey before, during, and after their
closest approach and according to their approach, intensity, and
duration. Monthly precipitation for October from Web site:
(http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.html) was
studied for selected sites (e.g., Cape May, Newark, New Brunswick, Toms
River) in order to assess the impact of tropical cyclones for the month
as compared to observed synoptic patterns. Results were considered with
regard to event rainfall, monthly totals, and mean values and indicated
that while the wettest October months were not necessarily those with
tropical activity; some of the cyclones were responsible for a
significant contribution of rainfall.
P1.31 The Frequency of Tropical Cyclones moving into Missouri and the
Synoptic Environment.
Rachel N. Redburn and Patrick E. Guinan,
Missouri Climate Center / University of Missouri-Columbia, and Anthony
R. Lupo, University of Missouri-Columbia.
Data acquired from the National
hurricane Center Archives (http://weather.unisys.com) demonstrate that
tropical cyclones impact Missouri approximately once every three years.
Of the 33 storms that have come into Missouri, 27 have been tropical
depressions and only six tropical storms. During the 2005 season, two
tropical cyclones moved into Missouri. Years in which there were more
tropical cyclones did not correlate strongly to the ENSO or PDO cycles.
Most storms that impacted Missouri were of Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean
Sea origins. Additionally, there were two synoptic regimes that favored
these cyclones making the journey to Missouri. Either the storm became
caught up in the jet stream and moved rapidly across the state from
southwest to northeast, or they moved into Missouri from the south or
southeast under a warm unstable air mass, with the center of high
pressure sitting east of Missouri. We contrasted these cases with two
events that did not cross into Missouri, even though they struck the
Gulf coast area to our south. These events occurred with high pressure
to the west of Missouri, and a trough over the Eastern United States.
P1.32 Assessing Confidence in Ensemble Prediction System Forecasts.
Richard Grumm, NWS State College PA, Ron Holmes, NWS State College PA,
Robert Hart, Florida State University, and Andrew Durante, Florida
State University.
Confidence forecasts from the National Centers
for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) short-range ensemble forecast
(SREF) system are presented. The SREF confidence forecasts were
developed from a more robust application using the NCEP medium-range
ensemble forecast (MREF) system. The MREF system uses global
re-analysis data and contains a full year of past MREF performance. The
current SREF system, implemented in March 2006, bases confidence
strictly on the performance of the SREF over the past 25 days.
The forecasts compare the spread in the SREF
over the past 25 days to the spread in the current SREF. The relatively
short-range of this methodology typically focuses large uncertainty in
areas of recently active weather. Areas recently under relatively weak
flow, baroclinicity, or high pressure will generally have low spread in
recent EPS forecasts relative to areas with strong flow, high
baroclinicity, and strong pressure systems. Thus, a strong
frontal or pressure system in the forecast would likely produce higher
than recently forecast and observed spread, leading to a low confidence
forecast.
Observations related to confidence forecast
applications and sensible weather forecasts will be presented.
Preliminary observations suggest that low confidence forecasts tend to
occur in regions of active weather and in regions transitioning from
relatively quiescent to active weather. This effect appears most
noticeably around strong frontal and pressure systems where the
combination tight gradients and timing errors can add uncertainty to
the forecasts. This lead to large spread between EPS members and the
ensemble mean and large spread relative to recent EPS forecasts. This
large spread and low confidence is useful information relative to the
details of the sensible weather forecasts. Conversely, low spread
and high confidence also provide useful forecast information.
P1.33 Examining the GFS Model in a Busted Snow Event: 15-16 January
2003. Chad M Gravelle, Saint Louis University, Fred H.
Glass, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, St. Louis, MO, James T.
Moore, Saint Louis University, and Charles E. Graves, Saint Louis
University.
Forecasting winter precipitation is one of the
more difficult challenges that face operational meteorologists.
Many times, bands of heavy snowfall are associated with mesoscale
organization which can make the accurate prediction of these banded
structures challenging. On 15 -16 January 2003, a major winter
storm had been forecasted to impact the entire St. Louis, MO County
warning forecast area with up to 8 inches of snow. However, less
than an inch of snow fell in metro St. Louis and the heavy snowfall
occurred in two separate bands that affected only the extreme northern
and southern portions of the county warning area. This poster
will focus on the diagnosis of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model
in the days preceding the event. Up to that date during the 2002
- 2003 winter season, the GFS had exhibited superior performance and
was the model of choice for this event. Therefore, this poster
will focus on the GFS. The study will examine how the GFS model
evolved in successive model runs, and in particular how the dProg/dt
method can be quantitatively applied to diagnose model trends in
comparison to existing conceptual models.
P1.34 Enhancements to Area Specific Flash Flood Warnings. Audra
C. Hennecke, The Pennsylvania State University, and Stephen J.
Rogowski, Richard Hitchens and Sarah E. Allen, all with NOAA/NWS
Sterling, VA
Flash flooding can occur on a small horizontal
and short temporal scale. The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather
Forecast Office in Sterling, VA is charged with issuing Flash Flood
Warnings (FFWs) for the purpose of saving life and property for a large
portion of the Mid-Atlantic Region.
The primary method for issuing FFWs is with
the NWS NEXRAD radars (or WSR-88Ds). Due to inherent limitations with
radar sampling of flash-flood producing storms (e.g., earth curvature
with distance and beam blockage), flash flood prediction and detection
can be problematic within certain areas of the radar sampling volume.
To counteract the limitations of radar, a
comprehensive survey was developed and sent to emergency management
officials within the NWS Sterling warning area. These officials have
compiled detailed listings or maps of flood-prone areas, which include
waterways that overflow their banks (where they inundate), locations
prone to mudslides, and common road closures due to flash flooding and
high water from storm runoff.
A graphical shape file (or
overlay) of these local flood-prone small areas was developed for use
in AWIPS. When overlain on radar imagery, forecasters could be
more cognizant of known flash flood-prone areas in relation to storms.
Finally, results from the survey were ingested into an AWIPS text
database, which can be incorporated into FFWs that are coincident with
flash flood prone areas.
SESSION: Remote Sensing Applications and Technologies
Current and Future GOES Program Overview. Thomas Renkevens, NOAA/
NESDIS, Tim Schmit, Tim Walsh, John Paquette, and Brian Hughes, all
from NOAA/NESDIS.
GOES are a mainstay of weather forecasts and
environmental monitoring in the United States. Their images of the
clouds are seen daily on television weather forecasts. The GOES
mission satisfies national operational environmental requirements for
24 hour observation of weather, Earth's environment, and the solar and
space environment. To meet these requirements, NOAA continuously
maintains operational satellites at two locations, 75 degrees West, and
135 degrees West, with an on-orbit spare. The GOES-I series (GOES 8-12)
is the current operational series. The GOES-N series (GOES 13-15) is
under contract; the GOES-R series, the follow-on continuity program to
the GOES-N series, is in a program definition and risk reduction phase.
Satellite data and products from GOES-East and
GOES-West continue to be improved or added for the user
community. Some recent and upcoming product improvements include
GOES sounder and imager derived product imagery (DPI) and enhanced
hydro-estimator products.
With the successful launch of GOES-N on May
24, 2006 (GOES-13 on orbit), GOES-11 became the operational GOES-West
satellite on June 27 2006, replacing GOES-10 after nearly 8 years in
operation. By October 2006, GOES-10 will be repositioned over
60° West in direct support of users in South America. This
will provide users continuous viewing of South America and surrounding
oceans. Currently, views of South America are often interrupted
when GOES-East (12) is put into Rapid Scan Operations (RSO) to support
more frequent views of hurricanes and severe weather events.
GOES-13 has similar imager and sounder
instrumentation as compared to GOES 8-12, but is flying on a different
spacecraft bus and there are some noticeable improved
capabilities. Improvements to navigation, registration and
radiometrics provide the user with higher quality data. With
increased battery capacity, eclipse periods on GOES-13 are eliminated
and keep-out-zones are minimized. GOES O and P will have increased
spatial resolution in the 13.3µ band.
The next great leap forward in GOES instrument
technology will be with GOES-R, slated for launch no earlier than 2012
to provide coverage in the event of a failure of GOES-O or
GOES-P. This new sophisticated GOES series will monitor the
Earth's environment with vastly improved spatial, spectral and temporal
resolution through an advanced imager, a lightning mapper, a solar
imager, a space environment monitor, and a hyperspectral environmental
suite that performs the functions of near full disk atmospheric
sounding, mesoscale atmospheric sounding, and high resolution coastal
waters imaging. The GOES-R series will scan the Earth nearly five
times faster than the current GOES. The new sensors will allow
for a host of new environmental products and services, while improving
the products and services that are currently provided. The new
observations will contribute to dramatically improved weather, water
and space environmental services in the next decades, enhancing public
safety and providing economic benefits to the U.S. and our
international partners.
Operational Implications of GOES-R.
Timothy J. Schmit, NOAA/ NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and
Research, Advanced Satellite Products Branch, Madison, WI, Thomas
Renkevens and James J. Gurka, NOAA/ NESDIS, GOES-R Program Office,
Greenbelt, Maryland, Mat M. Gunshor and Jun Li, Cooperative Institute
for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), University of
Wisconsin-Madison.
In order to meet the requirements, documented
by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) user
communities, the instruments designated for the GOES-R notional
baseline include an Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and a Sounding
capability. The ABI will be launch-ready in 2014. These instruments
will monitor a wide range of phenomena with applications relating to:
weather, climate, ocean, land, and hazards.
The ABI is a state of the art, 16-channel
imager covering 6 visible to near-IR bands (0.47 to 2.25 m), and 10
infrared (IR) bands (3.9 m to 13.3 m). Spatial resolutions are
band dependent, 0.5 km at nadir for the 0.6 m visible, 1.0 km for near
IR bands and 2.0 km for the IR bands. The ABI will be capable of
scanning the Full Disk (FD) in approximately 5 minutes. ABI will
improve every product from the current GOES Imager and will introduce a
host of new products possible. In addition to the imagery, products
also include: retrieved Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs), Quantitative
Precipitation Estimates (QPEs), cloud parameters, clear-sky radiances,
layered moisture, surface (skin) temperature, volcanic ash, detection
of fog and characterization of fires. The ABI will also provide
cloud-top phase/particle size/optical depth information and much
improved snow detection, aerosol and smoke detection and
characterization for air quality monitoring. Other new products include
vegetation monitoring and upper-level SO2 detection. These new
and improved products will be generated in real-time to benefit
operational regional forecasting, environmental monitoring, storm
prediction, hazardous event monitoring, etc.
High-spectral-resolution infrared radiance
measurements from the geostationary perspective remain a high priority
in the evolution of the GOES observing capability. These advanced
sounders will have hundreds of channels with spectral widths less than
a wavenumber; the current GOES Sounders have 18 bands with spectral
widths of tens of wavenumbers. It is expected that they will
improve geostationary sounding capabilities by expanding the hourly
spatial coverage, increasing the vertical temperature and moisture
sounding resolution, capturing atmospheric motions at many more levels,
and penetrating the boundary layer to depict small scale temperature
and moisture changes. These improved capabilities would
significantly impact nowcasting, short-range weather forecasting, and
longer-range numerical weather prediction.
Improved resolution and consistency in the quest for better utilization
of GOES Sounder products. Gary S. Wade, NOAA/NESDIS, Scott Bachmeier,
CIMSS, James P. Nelson III, CIMSS, Sarah T. Bedka,
CIMSS, Timothy J. Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS.
In November 2005, the NOAA National
Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) began
providing routine, operational distribution of full (horizontal)
resolution hourly atmospheric products, generated from the Sounder on
the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES).
This distribution was targeted to the Advanced Weather Interactive
Processing System (AWIPS) of the National Weather Service (NWS).
Although GOES Sounder atmospheric vertical profiles, and their image
counterparts, the so-called Derived Product Images (DPI), had
previously been regularly provided within AWIPS since the mid to late
1990 s at a resolution of 5x5 fields-of-view (FOV) (or nominally about
50 by 50 km at the sub-satellite point), this new suite of data
generated at a (nominal) 10 km single field-of-view (SFOV) resolution
was made available on AWIPS for the first time. Amidst a variety
of possible products, a few elementary parameters, such as precipitable
water, lifted index (stability), and cloud top pressure, remain
traditional choices for DPI display and comparison. In addition
to self-evident improvement due to the increase in the horizontal
resolution, the new SFOV data were produced via a more comprehensive,
singular processing system, incorporating both cloud and clear air
retrievals together.
During early 2006, an updated version of the
Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training (VISIT)
tele-training module on the GOES Sounder Data and Products was offered
to interested NWS offices. This new version was intended to
re-vitalize exposure to the sounding data as well as to help ensure
that such simple characteristics of the DPI as their color enhancements
on AWIPS were appropriate (in contrast to often confusing and
ineffective displays in the past).
The purpose of this presentation is to
re-visit how GOES Sounder products, particularly emphasizing diagnosis
of moisture and stability, can be used to augment and support other
information regularly available to forecasters. This is done with
knowledge of the limitations of the GOES Sounder data, with respect to
obscuring clouds and only broad resolution in the vertical, but also is
done with knowledge of the unique temporal monitoring capability of a
geostationary instrument. Cases illustrating proper displays of
the GOES Sounder products on AWIPS during the 2006 warm season will be
shown, along with assessments of how these products add value and/or
substantiate other data sources. Comparisons with a small set of
continually monitoring upward-looking remote sensors at the Department
of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) test bed
facilities in the Southern Plains will also be included to help
validate trends and signals in the GOES data. Although there is
great anticipation for the much improved vertical resolution of the
interferometer sounder being planned for GOES-R, along with other
scanning and radiometric improvements, this current suite of GOES
Sounders (K-P, or 10-15) will remain the task of our directive to
master the present, until at least into the middle of the next decade.
RIDGE - Radar Integrated Display with Geospatial Elements. Planned
Updates and Enhancements to the NWS New Radar Webpage. Keith Stellman
and
Paul
Kirkwood, NOAA/NWS Southern Region, Fort Worth, TX, Jason Burks,
NOAA/NWS Huntsville, AL, Tim Brice, NOAA/NWS El Paso, TX. and Ken
Pavelle, NOAA/NWS Silver Spring, MD.
The National Weather Service is responsible to
make its weather, water and climate information widely available to
taxpayers using commonly accepted standards and technologies.
Currently, the NWS provides weather radar information for all Weather
Service Doppler Radars (WSR 88-D) in the United States on the NWS
Internet page. In February of 2006, the NWS successfully implemented
version one of the new radar displays. Version two of the RIDGE radar
will include additional products, a GIS image service, KML/KMZ
generator, and customizable web page features. Some of these
enhancements will be demonstrated at the conference. RIDGE
background: These radar images, called RIDGE (Radar Integrated Display
with Geospatial Elements), allows the radar image to be combined with
geospatial elements such as topography maps, highways, and county
boundaries. RIDGE also adds the ability to overlay polygon warnings
updated each minute issued by the National Weather Service Forecast
Offices. Each image within the RIDGE architecture is georeferenced
which allows GIS users to easily integrate the radar and warning
information into custom applications.
Dual-polarimetric WSR-88D radar algorithms. Kevin A.
Scharfenberg, University of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL.
The United States network of WSR-88D radars is
expected to be upgraded to include dual-polarimetric capabilities near
the end of the decade. The National Severe Storms Laboratory has
developed and tested several algorithms designed for the dual-pol
WSR-88D. These algorithms are expected to be deployed with the initial
dual-pol WSR-88D software build.
First a pre-processor algorithm, which smooths
the base data and corrects for noise and attenuation, is described.
Next a hydrometeor classification algorithm, which estimates the
dominant scatterer type in each radar gate, is discussed. Part of the
hydrometeor classification algorithm package is a melting-layer
detection module that uses signatures in the dual-pol data associated
with melting particles. Finally, the dual-pol quantitative
precipitation estimation algorithm package is described.
This presentation provides background
information for the companion presentation "Dual-polarimetric radar in
operational forecasting: An overview", by K. Scharfenberg.
Status on the integration of the NSSL Four-dimensional Stormcell
Investigator (FSI) into AWIPS. Gregory J. Stumpf, NOAA/OAR National
Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and University of Oklahoma/CIMMS,
Norman, OK, F. Thomas Filiaggi, NOAA/NWS Silver Spring, MD, Michael A.
Magsig, NOAA/NWS/WDTB, Norman, OK, Kurt D. Hondl, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
and Stephan B. Smith, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD..
Work is moving forward to complete the
development of a prototype Four-dimensional Stormcell Investigator
(FSI) that is integrated with the AWIPS D2D display application.
The FSI is a modified version of the Warning Decision Support
System Integrated Information (WDSSII) display for WSR-88D base
radar data. This version contains a unique linked 4-panel design,
this includes vertical and horizontal (CAPPI) cross-sections displayed
in 3D. These cross-sections are very easy to manipulate and are
dynamic as they update information on the fly as the user is
manipulating their position. At the time of this presentation, we
will have completed alpha testing at the Phoenix AZ and Wilmington OH
WFOs, and are undertaking alpha testing at the Huntsville AL WFO.
Next spring, alpha tests will continue in Omaha NE, and at the Norman
OK WFO in concert with the National Hazardous Weather Testbeds (HWT)
new Experimental Warning Program (EWP). The first version of
the FSI will be deployed with AWIPS OB8.2. A future version
will have support for polarimetric variables and Terminal Doppler
Weather Radar (TDWR) data, and possibly 3D volume
rendering/isosurfaces.
Site-Specific Scanning Strategies for WSR-88Ds: Planning for Field
Tests. Rodger A. Brown, (NWA Publications Committee Co-chair) NOAA/OAR
National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK and Randy M. Steadham,
NOAA/NWS
Radar Operations Center, Norman, OK.
The lowest elevation angle scanned by all
radars in the Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network
is 0.5 deg. Users of Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs) and
research Doppler radars find that scanning at 0.0 deg reveals the
presence of boundaries of forecasting significance that frequently are
not evident at 0.5 deg elevation angles. Furthermore, forecasters
who prepare warnings based on mountaintop WSR-88D measurements
frequently find that the radar overshoots hazardous weather phenomena
that threaten the surrounding populace. Simulations indicate that
the use of negative elevation angles at mountaintop sites would permit
the detection of hazardous weather and would greatly improve the
accuracy of surface rainfall and snowfall estimates.
With a basic need for WSR-88Ds to scan at lower
elevation angles, the WSR-88D Radar Operations Center in collaboration
with National Weather Service Forecast Offices, National Severe Storms
Laboratory, and Federal Aviation Administration is proposing that each
WSR-88D collect data at elevation angles that are best suited for its
locale. To test the operational feasibility of lowering elevation
angles, a two-year field test is being proposed for six WSR-88Ds, three
located on mountaintops and three located on relatively flat
terrain. The test plan currently is being evaluated at various
administrative levels within the National Weather Service. A
status report on the plan will be presented at the meeting.
Session: Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Model Flip-Flops and Forecast Opportunities, Bernard N. Meisner,
NOAA/NWS Southern Region. Fort Worth, TX
The introduction, in October 2005, of extended
range Model Output Statistics (MEXMOS) based on the 1200 UTC run of
NCEP's Global Forecast System raised some concerns among NWS field
office staffs concerning the perceived frequency of so called model
Flip-Flops substantial oscillations in guidance between
successive model runs.
A review of the literature revealed this
particular model behavior has not been well documented. Model
flip-flops seem to occur most often during the transition months and
when model uncertainty, as suggested by the spread of ensemble members,
is large (Jascourt, 2002).
An intercomparison of MEXMOS daily maximum and
temperature guidance for selected cities indicates that there is no
bias between the 0000 and 1200 UTC model runs, at least as represented
by the derived MOS maximum and minimum temperature guidance.
Also, GFS model flips are much more common that flip-flops and, when
the model does flip, the change in the guidance is generally in the
direction of the correct solution.
During the course of this study, the frequency
of Forecast Opportunities times when the difference between
the MEXMOS maximum/minimum temperature guidance and the subsequent
observed temperatures exceeded a specified amount was also
noted. Such Forecast Opportunities occur about 10-15% of the
time, and most commonly occur for Days 3-7, especially whenever the
observed temperature departs substantially from climatology. This
might be expected, since the regression-based MEXMOS guidance would
likely not accurately predict temperature extremes that occurred rarely
in the developmental data set.
This result is consistent with that reported
by Baars and Mass (2005) who noted than human forecasts are most
skillful compared to MOS during periods when temperatures differ
greatly from climatology. However, the large frequency of
Forecast Opportunities for Days 3-7 suggest that, in addition to adding
value to the model guidance in the 12-24 hour range, as suggested by
Baars and Mass, forecasters can often add value in the medium range,
particularly when the weather could have an impact on various economic
sectors.
Somewhat surprisingly, Forecast Opportunities
are much less common whenever the day-to-day temperature change is
large, suggesting the GFS model has reasonable skill in representing
the timing of frontal passages, even at the extended range.
As might be expected, Forecast Opportunities
are more common for those locations where the variance in daily
temperatures is large, and are less common where the variance in daily
temperature is small.
References
Baars, Jeffrey A. and Clifford F Mass,
2005: Performance of National Weather Service forecasts compared
to operational, consensus, and weighted model output statistics.
Wea. and Forecasting, 20, 1034-1047.
Jascourt, Stephen, 2002: Interpretation
of global forecast model "flipflops." [Available online at
http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/ens08apr02/frameset.htm]
The Enhanced Short-Term Forecast Program at WFO Charleston WV. Alan
Rezek and Jeffrey Hovis, NOAA/NWS Charleston, WV
In an effort to explore improvements to
short-term forecast operations, WFO Charleston, WV tasked an Operations
2005 team to develop a strategy that would evolve their operations to
one which focused more on the short term, especially during the first
12-18 hours of the forecast. This presentation will discuss the
plan developed, how it was implemented, the challenges faced, and
initial results of enhanced short-term forecast operations.
The Operations 2005 team concluded that WFO
Charleston would be able to enhance their short term products and
services by spending more time analyzing and forecasting the weather in
the short term. For the forecaster to have this additional time,
the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) text formatters would have to be
improved, some of the text products would have to be automated, the GFE
Smart Tools would have to be improved, additional Smart Tools would
have to be written and less time would be spent on the extended portion
of the forecast (Days 4-7) database. Additionally, the team
concluded that more detailed weather information would have to be made
available. This additional weather information would include more
weather observations in and around the WFO Charleston, WV forecast area
as well as high-detailed numerical model output.
Implementation of the plan involved a number
of changes. One important change was to use the Hydrological Prediction
Center (HPC) Day 4-7 forecast information to populate the
forecast grids in the extended portion of the forecast database.
The shift duties were also examined and changes were made when it
resulted in more time to look at the short-term weather. The
short-term forecaster is now only responsible for monitoring and
updating the first 18 hours of the forecast. Additionally,
several forecast products including (but not limited to) the Area
Forecast Matrix, Point Forecast Matrix and Fire Weather Forecast, were
automated, allowing the forecaster more time to be looking at the
weather. Finally, the WRF Environmental Modeling System is
currently running every 3 hours at a 5 km resolution and is
hot-started using the Local Area Prediction System (LAPS)
analyses. The WRF, combined with model output from the Rapid
Update Cycle (RUC) model and a locally run WorkStation Eta, has given
the forecasters more hourly weather forecast information than was
previously available.
While several of the team’s suggestions have
been successfully implemented, there are still a few challenges.
One of the biggest continuing challenges is providing deterministic
predictions of precipitation at forecast projections out to 12
hours. The office philosophy is to move away from a 30 percent
chance of rain during a 12-h period to a more deterministic forecast of
when precipitation will begin and end at any given location. This
is especially difficult during convection.
Advancements in Surface Transportation Weather Practices and
Technologies. Paul Pisano, Federal Highway Administration, Washington,
D.C., Andrew Stern, Mitretek Systems, Falls Church, VA.
Weather forecasting for surface transportation
is a relatively young science and during the latter half of the 20th
century received only a fraction of the attention of other modes such
as for aviation or the marine community. However during the last
decade, interest and research in forecasting for surface transportation
has been elevated in the national consciousness and reinvigorated by
the recent Congressional mandate for a Surface Transportation Weather
Research Program.
The Federal Highway Administration s Road
Weather Management Program administers the research program for the
Department of Transportation, acting as a liaison between the
meteorological and surface transportation communities, and creating new
institutional relationships to push the communities ahead toward
advanced technical solutions to longstanding problems.
This presentation will provide highlights
about the Road Weather Management Program and discuss innovations such
as the Maintenance Decision Support System, the Clarus Initiative, and
Weather Responsive Traffic Management as well as the federal and
public/private relationships that must come together to keep the state
of the science and practice moving forward.
A Fingerprinting Technique for Major Weather Events. Benjamin V. Root,
Penn State University, Paul G. Knight, Penn State Meteorology, Richard
H. Grumm, NWS State College, PA, Jeremy Ross, ZedX Inc., and Steven
Greybush, Penn State University
Advances in weather prediction have occurred
on numerous fronts, from sophisticated physics packages in the latest
mesoscale models to multi-model ensembles of medium range predictions.
Thus, the skill of numerical weather forecasts continues to increase.
Statistical techniques have further increased the utility of these
predictions. The availability of large atmospheric data sets and faster
processors in computers has made pattern recognition of major weather
events a feasible means of statistically enhancing the value of
numerical forecasts. This presentation examines the utility of pattern
recognition in assisting the prediction of severe and major weather in
the Middle Atlantic region. A new technique is described that employs
an artificial intelligence clustering algorithm to objectively identify
the patterns or fingerprints associated with past events. The potential
refinement and applicability of this method as an operational
forecasting tool by comparing numerical weather prediction forecasts to
fingerprints already identified for major weather events is also
discussed.
High-Resolution Analysis Products to Support Severe Weather and
Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Threat Assessments over Florida.
Jonathan Case, ENSCO Inc/Applied Meteorology Unit, Scott Spratt, NWS
Melbourne, FL, and David Sharp, NWS Melbourne, FL
The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)
located at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force
Station (CCAFS) implemented an operational configuration of the
Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS),
as well as the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model.
Operational, high-resolution ADAS analyses have been produced from this
configuration at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS
MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) over the past several
years. Since that time, ADAS fields have become an integral part of
forecast operations at both NWS MLB and SMG. To continue providing
additional utility, the AMU has been tasked to implement visualization
products to assess the potential for supercell thunderstorms and
significant tornadoes, and to improve assessments of short-term
cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning potential. This paper and presentation
focuses on the visualization products developed by the AMU for the
operational high-resolution ADAS and ARPS at the NWS MLB and SMG.
The two severe weather threat graphics
implemented within ADAS/ARPS are the Supercell Composite Parameter
(SCP) and Significant Tornado Parameter (STP). The SCP was designed to
identify areas with supercell thunderstorm potential through a
combination of several instability and shear parameters. The STP was
designed to identify areas that favor supercells producing significant
tornadoes (F2 or greater intensity) versus non-tornadic supercells.
Both indices were developed by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) and were normalized by key threshold values based on previous
studies. The indices apply only to discrete storms, not other
convective modes.
In a post-analysis mode, the AMU calculated
SCP and STP for graphical output using an ADAS configuration similar to
the operational set-ups at NWS MLB and SMG . Graphical images from ADAS
were generated every 15 minutes for 13 August 2004, the day that
Hurricane Charley approached and made landfall on the Florida
peninsula. Several tornadoes struck the interior of the Florida
peninsula in advance of Hurricane Charley s landfall during the
daylight hours of 13 August. Since SPC had previously examined this
case using SCP and STP graphics generated from output of the Rapid
Update Cycle (RUC) model, this day served as a good benchmark to
compare and validate the high-resolution ADAS graphics against the
smoother RUC analyses, which serves as background fields to the ADAS
analyses. The ADAS-generated SCP and STP graphics have been integrated
into the suite of products examined operationally by NWS MLB
forecasters and are used to provide additional guidance for assessment
of the near-storm environment during convective situations.
A study published in 1999 identified CG
lightning initiation signatures in the vicinity of KSC based on
reflectivity thresholds from the WSR-88D at key isothermal layers in
the atmosphere. The authors interpolated radar data from the Melbourne,
FL WSR-88D onto a Cartesian grid with 1-km horizontal spacing and
0.5-km vertical spacing. Using results from 39 total storm cells in the
KSC area (31 with CG lightning and 8 without), the authors computed
skill scores of various lightning initiation signatures based on
reflectivity thresholds at the -10°C, -15°C, and -20°C
levels. The most skillful reflectivity thresholds were > 40 dBZ at
-10°C (79% critical success index [CSI], 7.5 min median lag time),
> 30 dBZ at -15°C (71% CSI, 12.5 min median lag time), and >
20 dBZ at -20°C (63% CSI, 10.5 min median lag time). The skill
decreased with colder temperatures due to higher false alarm rates at
the indicated reflectivity thresholds. With only 8 non-lightning cases,
there may be some representativeness error in the skill scores with
this limited database.
The AMU developed a 4-panel graphic that
displays the composite reflectivity interpolated to the ADAS analysis
grid, and each of the reflectivity thresholds at the -10°C,
-15°C, and -20°C isotherms, as described above. The goal was to
create a product that would provide forecasters with a meaningful
decision aid in nowcasting CG lightning initiation threats in real
time. To accomplish this and to keep the skill scores meaningful, an
ADAS grid was devised at the same resolution as that used in the 1999
study described above. The horizontal and vertical dimensions were
modified in order to maximize the analysis domain while minimizing the
amount of computational time it takes to complete the analysis cycle.
Ultimately, it will be most helpful to create an operational scheme
where a 1-km ADAS lightning product is produced every 5 min, in order
to generate output for each volume scan of the WSR-88D. Sample graphics
will be shown from the 13 August 2004 convection associated with
Hurricane Charley’s outer bands and compared to corresponding data from
the National Lightning Detection Network.
An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to
Initialize WRF in the NWS Environmental Modeling System. Jonathan Case,
ENSCO Inc/Applied Meteorology Unit, Peter Blottman, NWS Melbourne, FL,
Brian Hoeth, NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and Timothy Oram, NWS
Spaceflight Meteorology Group.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to
enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The
NWS as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model
of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both
the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the
Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional
Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes
over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics
supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG
have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts
from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NWS MLB
and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would
like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to
assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit
(AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of
WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions.
Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a
framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated
into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by
the NWS Science Operations Officer (SOO) Science and Training Resource
Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that
incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for
Atmospheric Research s Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction s Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model
(NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs
nearly all pre- and post-processing and can be run automatically to
obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model,
and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within
the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The EMS has also
incorporated the WRF Standard Initialization (SI) graphical user
interface (GUI), which allows the user to set up the domain, dynamical
core, resolution, etc., with ease. In addition to the SI GUI, the EMS
contains a number of configuration files with extensive documentation
to help the user select the appropriate input parameters for model
physics schemes, integration timesteps, etc. Therefore, because of its
streamlined capability, it is quite advantageous to configure ADAS to
provide initial condition data to the EMS software.
One of the biggest potential benefits of
configuring ADAS for ingest into the EMS is that the analyses could be
used to initialize either the ARW or NMM. Currently, the ARPS/ADAS
software has a conversion routine only for the ARW dynamical core.
However, since the NMM runs about 2.5 times faster than the ARW, it is
quite advantageous to be able to run an ADAS/NMM configuration
operationally due to the increased efficiency.
To accomplish the goals set forth, the AMU
first obtained the WRF EMS software from the NWS SOO STRC, installed
the software, and ran a benchmark simulation prior to running with near
real-time data. Next, the AMU configured a set of shell scripts to
generate a 0-hour initialization file for the ADAS/ARW and write this
initialization file to a pressure-coordinate file in the GRIB data
format, which is the standard input data format for both the ARW and
NMM. This method facilitates the initialization of the NMM dynamical
core within the WRF-EMS using ADAS analyses. Additional details and
some sample operational results from NWS MLB and SMG will be presented
at the conference.
Easy Deployment of the WRF Model with Parallel Computing Using
Non-Dedicated PCs. Braden Ward, Kean University, and Shing Yoh, Kean
University.
In order to support operational forecasters,
researchers and undergraduate students with limited resources to run
their own customized Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, this
project explores a non-intrusive, fast setup and efficient way to build
a cluster machine using 2 to 16 common desktop computers without any
interruption to the underlying operating systems. These computers
normally are used for other activities. To build a distributed
computing environment using diverse PCs regardless of the installed
operating system on the machines (running Windows, Linux, and MAC),
each computer will be rebooted into a Linux environment with
Bootable Cluster CD (BCCD, v2.2.1c). A Network File System (NFS)
or Network Attached Storage (NAS) is mounted to each of the computers
for access to software storage (MPICH library with PGI F90 compiler,
netcdf library, and WRF system) and saving input and output. Each
machine will return to its original state following shutdown of BCCD,
and the WRF results will be saved on the permanent file system for
further analysis.
The setup of the cluster is simple and only
requires 2 minutes of user time for setup per machine. The setup
time can be greatly reduced if in the future WRF can be configured and
distributed on the bootable CD format. This cluster configuration
had been tested for both WRF ideal and real cases using one to sixteen
student computers from the Department of Geology &
Meteorology. For the real case study, it is found that the wall
clock time for 12-hour simulation (starting 00 UTC February 11th, 2006
centered over NJ, close to 15 km grid spacing with 100x100x31 grid
points) is reduced from 105.7 minutes for 1 PC to 35.2 minutes for 8
PCs, and 25.3 minutes for 16 PCs. The results mirror wall clock
time from a comparable dedicated Linux cluster for the same run.
This study will also show that even with dated resources one could
improve WRF model runtime performance efficiently in parallel.
Session: Flash Flood/Hydrology
Hydrometeorological Training: What Makes a Flood a Flash Flood? Invited
Speaker: Matthew Kelsch, UCAR COMET, and Wendy Abshire, UCAR COMET.
The Cooperative Program for Operational
Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET) offers a web-based course
in basic hydrologic sciences that addresses the hydrologic aspects of
flash floods. This material can be found on the COMET Meted URL at
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/topics_hydro.php. Flash flood training
is also available from residence training courses in advanced
hydrologic sciences and flash flood hydrology, and from several
webcasts and interactive modules.
Distinguishing flash floods from slower onset
floods is an ongoing challenge. Flooding occurs across a spectrum
of time and space scales with localized, rapid-onset flash floods on
one end of the spectrum and slow-rise, large-area floods on the other
end. It is the flash floods that present the greatest forecast
challenge because of the very short time duration associated with flood
onset. Although runoff processes are similar with all floods, specific
types of runoff such as overland flow, tend to dominate flash flood
situations. With the more rapid types of runoff, flash floods are also
more likely to occur outside of stream channels. In addition, the NOAA
National Weather Service (NWS) definition of flash floods includes
related phenomena such as debris flows, failure of structures that are
impounding water, and rapid stream rises associated with ice jams.
These all add uncertainty and complexity to the flash flood forecast
process.
COMET offerings look at the runoff processes
and streamflow behavior for all floods, and emphasize physical
processes that lead to very rapid runoff. The roles of
precipitation rate, debris and sediment loading, and river ice are also
explored in the training material. Case study scenarios examine a
variety of flash flood event types. These include situations such
as rural versus urban, wet soil versus drought, and special cases such
as fire burn areas. Some case reviews look at events that were
characterized by both widespread general floods and localized flash
flooding. These cases highlight the difficulty with providing
specific detail on the severe localized flash flood events. Other
training offerings address QPF, QPE, and the NWS flash flood monitoring
and prediction (FFMP) software.
Flash Flood Hot Spot Climatology: An Essential Tool for the Flash Flood
Warning Process. Michael Moneypenny, NWS Raleigh, NC, Jamie Wirth,
North Carolina State University.
In a given area, there are typically specific
sites or hot spots that are prone to rapid flooding from heavy rain. As
a means to improve flash flood warning capabilities, an extensive
outreach effort to identify and gather detailed information for flood
hot spots is underway throughout the National Weather Service Raleigh
(NWS RAH) forecast county warning area (CWA). This effort is conducted
in collaboration with North Carolina State University (NCSU). Support
is provided from the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology
Training and Education (COMET) Outreach Program.
Forecasters and NCSU students are constructing
county by county flash flood climatologies for the NWS RAH
CWA. Hot spot locations are toured and pictures taken for
future reference. Working with county emergency management offices,
local details are obtained for each county s flood hot spots.
Included in the climatologies are past flood events, frequency of
flooding, local impacts, and flooding rules of thumb.
The flash flood hot spots along with detailed
information are being merged with existing NWS technologies such as
Doppler weather radar data, stream gauge data, FFMP (Flash Flood
Monitoring Program) and the NWS s principal operational system, AWIPS
(Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System). These advances are
improving the station’s flash flood warning capabilities by enabling
forecasters to maintain a higher degree of situational
awareness.
This presentation will share processes
employed by the outreach effort to obtain the flash flood climatology
and those used to place the climatological information and flash flood
hot spot sites into the NWS operational systems. The value of the
climatology with respect to increasing forecaster’s situational
awareness for flash flooding will be highlighted as well as its value
for adding more site specific information into the flash flood
warnings.
Observing the flood threat from Hurricane Ivan with Flash Flood
Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) program. Robert S. Davis, NWS
Pittsburgh, PA.
The remnants of Hurricane Ivan produced
widespread flooding across much of southwest Pennsylvania, the northern
panhandle of West Virginia, and southeast Ohio on 17 September
2004. FFMP played a major role in the issuance of timely
flood warnings issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Pittsburgh, PA. The FFMP display of the observed radar
rainfall during Ivan will be examined. Rain gage data will be
compared with the radar rainfall to demonstrate the accuracy of the
radar rainfall estimates.
Two FFMP enhancements to improve detection of
flooding from inland tropical storms will be discussed. The first
proposed enhancement is to increase the maximum duration of rainfall
from six hours to twenty-four hours. A second major enhancement
is the addition of an aggregated stream basin database of large stream
watersheds up to 200 mi2 in area. Examples of the enhanced FFMP
display will be used to show the radar rainfall estimates for Hurricane
Ivan.
The rainfall observed during Ivan is typical
of the widespread rainfall associated with slow moving inland tropical
storms. Since so many significant flood events result from inland
flooding from tropical storms, enhancing FFMP to improve flood
detection during tropical storms should be a high priority for the
National Weather Service.
Revisiting Upper Tropospheric Lows and their Interaction with the North
American Monsoon: What’s Next in Hypothesis Formulation and Testing?
Erik Pytlak, NOAA/NWS Tucson, AZ.
Since the 2004 North American Monsoon
Experiment (NAME) Field Campaign, and spin-up preparations in 2003, the
importance of transitory, subtropical, upper-tropospheric lows has been
noted. While they do tend to exhibit convective development
characteristics of Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cells,
many of these features also develop along the monsoon boundary, evolve
from remnant mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs), and in a few cases,
from westerly short wave troughs which become entangled in the
circulation around a subtropical high and turn back to the west
underneath the high.
Whatever their origins may be, these systems
tend to enhance thunderstorm development on both leading and training
flanks, while the low centers are relatively quiet, even though the
centers contain the coldest air aloft. While convective
enhancement is typical on the trailing (east) flanks, enhancement on
the leading (west) flanks is less understood and probably involves both
dynamic and orographic components. This presentation will compare
tracks and thunderstorm development from these upper level lows in
2003-2005, and establish some possible avenues for additional research
and a better understanding of how these systems interact with the
monsoon regime as a whole.
Dual-polarimetric radar in operational forecasting: An overview.
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, University of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL.
The U.S. network of WSR-88D radars is expected
to be upgraded to include dual-polarimetric capabilities by the end of
the decade. Dual-pol radars can provide for a detailed mapping of bulk
scatterer types, significant improvements in data quality control, and
much improved estimates of precipitation accumulation. These advantages
have been demonstrated in an operational forecasting setting.
This presentation will discuss past successes
in the use of dual-pol WSR-88D data in routine forecasting and in
hazardous weather warnings. A vision of the broader impact the dual-pol
radar upgrade may have on operational meteorology will also be offered.
A Subtle Heavy Rainfall Signature(SHARS) Event in Southeast Arizona:
Ramifications of a Major Flash Flooding in an Urbanized Desert
Environment. Michael Schaffner and Erik Pytlak, NOAA/NWS Tucson, AZ.
Subtle HeAvy Rainfall Signatures (SHARS) are a
classic flash flood instigator over the central and eastern U.S.
While this type of event may be less common in the Western U.S.,
warm-topped thunderstorm complexes can occur when a weak synoptic-scale
feature is introduced into North American Monsoon regime. This
has important forecasting implications both meteorologically and
hydrologically in the desert Southwest. While flash flooding is
rather common during the monsoon season in southeast Arizona, it is
unusual for flooding to affect a large area or large sections of a
single river basin. However large-scale flash floods have
occurred before in southeast Arizona with catastrophic results.
As the area continues to urbanize, it is becoming increasingly
important for forecasters to differentiate between a typically isolated
flash flood and one which could overwhelm a large watershed or an
entire metropolitan area.
A synoptically-forced SHARS is one
potential situation in which rainfall areal coverage and intensity
could cause an initially typical flash flood to evolve into
a widespread and major one with little warning. Both the
meteorological and hydrologic characteristics of a SHARS event in 2005
are analyzed, and then compared to how similar flood event could evolve
if displaced into the highly-urbanized Tucson Metropolitan Area.
An Update on Satellite Derived Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) and
Blended Total Precipitable Water Products. Sheldon J. Kusselson,
NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD/SSD/Satellite Analysis Branch, Dr. Stanley
Kidder, CIRA/Colorado State University, Dr. Elizabeth E.
Ebert, Austrailian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre,
Michael Turk, NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD/SSD/Satellite Analysis Branch, and Dr.
Robert Kuligowski, NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and
Research (STAR).
The satellite derived Tropical Rainfall
Potential (TRaP) and Blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Vapor
products can trace their earliest beginnings to related satellite
application work performed by Dr. Rod Scofield and other NESDIS
researcher scientists about 20 years ago. Both products
have further developed, been modernized and automated, especially over
the past 10 years and are being used by forecasters nationally as well
as globally. We will update you on the current status of
both products, the exciting future new products and applications being
generated from TRaP, like e-TRaP and probabilistic TRaP and from
satellite derived Blended TPW, like precipitable water anomalies
as the legacy of Rod Scofield’s pioneering efforts in satellite
moisture analysis lives on.
An Operational Forecast Office Perspective of The National Weather
Service Hydrologic Distributed Modeling System (HDMS). Diane Cooper,
NWS Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center.
River flood flow forecasting is a primary
mission of the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (NWS
RFC). The current National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS) utilizes the conceptual Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting
Model, which was developed in the 1970s. NWSRFS is a geographically
static, lumped parameter, basin-scale model that produces flow
information at identified outlet points. The National Weather Service
recognizes that an opportunity exists to improve their modeling system
by exploiting recent technological advances, specifically the
development of higher resolution datasets. This new system will advance
the NWS river modeling and forecasting capability. Goals for this model
include improved timing and more accurate crest forecasts at identified
forecast points, flow forecasts at ungaged locations, and improvement
in flash flood guidance products.
The Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
(ABRFC), in collaboration with the Office of Hydrologic Development -
Hydrology Laboratory, is customizing and calibrating a prototype
version of the NWS-Hydrologic Distributed Modeling System (HDMS). This
effort includes implementing the model in an operational environment
while identifying system requirements for a national fully-integrated
Hydrologic Forecast System.
This paper highlights some of the results the
ABRFC has observed with HDMS. This includes the preliminary evaluation
of the model s performance as well as a validation comparison to the
NWSRFS model.
Probabilistic Forecasts - Baseline Products for Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Services. David B. Reed, NOAA/NWS/LMRFC Slidell, LA.
A goal of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Services (AHPS) is to provide probabilistic forecasts of hydrologic
events to support Emergency Managers and Water Resources
Managers. Eventually, these forecasts will span the timeframe of
hours to months. Probabilistic forecasts can provide the
likelihood of an event occurring and these groups can use that
probability with a cost/benefit analysis in determining what actions
should be taken.
Probabilistic forecasts of hours to days
involve the probability of weather events. Several River Forecast
Centers (RFCs) are working on pilot projects to define these
probabilities but no single technique is being used to provide these
forecasts and they are provided for limited areas.
Probabilistic forecasts spanning weeks to years are largely based on
climatology. Within AHPS, the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
(ESP) program is utilized to generate probability forecasts for weeks
to months.
There is a standard set of four products that
must be provided for a location to meet AHPS requirements.
These products include the weekly chance of exceedence for each week
during the analysis period for both stages and flows and the chance of
exceedence for the entire run period for both stages and flows.
In addition to the baseline set of products,
AHPS can provide probability forecasts for a variety of parameters to
meet a customer’s needs.
Session: Professional Development
Walk in my Shoes: Unique Simulation Efforts at the 2006 National Severe
Weather Workshop. Liz Quoetone, NOAA/NWS/WDTB, Daphne LaDue and
Paul Schlatter, from the OU Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale
Meteorological Studies, WDTB, John McLaughlin, KCCI TV, Des Moines, IA,
Dave Freeman, KSNW TV, Wichita, KS, Gayland Kitch, Moore, Oklahoma
Emergency Manager, John Burchett, Ada,Oklahoma Emergency Manager
(Retired), Rick Smith, NOAA/NWS Norman, OK, Sarah Corfidi,
NOAA/NWS/SPC, Dale Morris,
OU Oklahoma Climatological Survey, John Ferree, NOAA/NWS/OCWWS.
During severe weather operations, the
effectiveness of the partnerships between the broadcast media, the NWS,
and local emergency managers can have a big impact on how well severe
weather information is conveyed to, and received from, the
public. Having a prior understanding of the challenges unique to
each of these groups can greatly affect the quality of communications
between these groups during the actual event.
With this in mind, a unique simulation was
developed for participants in the 2006 National Severe Weather Workshop
held in Oklahoma in March 2006. The primary goal of this simulation was
to allow participants to develop an understanding of the duties their
partners perform during severe weather, while developing a sense of the
challenges that are faced by each group. Participants were divided into
three groups such that no participant did their regular job. As a
result, the participants had to take off their own cape of expertise
and experience, and step into the uncomfortable position of doing the
job their partners normally do. The intent was for the participants to
not only build empathy for their counterparts, but to eventually impact
real time events by incorporating the knowledge gained in this
experience into future operations.
The five-hour simulation, split between two days, was set up in three
different rooms, one for each group, with each room having simultaneous
feeds of displaced real-time data. The rooms represented the NWS (Storm
Prediction Center and Weather Forecast Office), the Media, and
Emergency Management. In the NWS room, the SPC group analyzed data and
discussed the societal constraints relative to issuing severe weather
outlooks and watches. After a watch was issued, participants switched
to the WFO role focusing on real-time radar data analysis in a
time-pressured environment. Threats were conveyed via warnings
and statements that were then transmitted to the other two rooms. In
the Emergency Operations Center, the group digested the information
from a multitude of sources and provided real-time spotter reports, in
addition to making decisions directly impacting the sounding of sirens
and the safety of citizens. The Media Room dealt with decisions
regarding expected weather and the possible impacts on programming. For
participants broadcasting live to the other two rooms, the need
to provide a constant flow of information during wall-to-wall coverage
was one of the most challenging aspects.
This presentation will discuss the process of
developing and conducting the simulation which required synchronous
displaced real-time weather data in three different physical locations
using three different platforms. The challenges each group faced in
their decision making as they tried to do their job in a context which
was time-pressured, complex, and ambiguous will also be
discussed. This context included the presence of live TV
broadcasts and interactive Ham radio feeds. Feedback from both
simulation organizers and participants will be presented.
KU-OUR-METPACT Year II: GROWTH. Paul J. Croft, Kean
University.
In a second year effort, the student
educational collective for undergraduate research experiences and
development (SECURED) expanded to include several additional students
at Kean University during summer and throughout the academic year. Thus
the Kean University Operational Undergraduate Research in Meteorology
& Professional Activities and Collaborative Training
(KU-OUR-METPACT) program has been established and begun its GROWTH
stage (Growth through Research in Operational Weather
Training Holistically).
The development of a collective of meteorology
students to perform research and professional development activities
has allowed for the incorporation of collaborative and cooperative
projects within the University and with outside colleagues. These
included competitive funding through the Kean University Students
Partnering with Faculty program and studies integrated with operational
priorities of the regional professional community (e.g., NWS). The
increased number of students allowed greater interaction among majors
and provided presentations and mentoring to others through the Student
Chapter of the AMS/NWA and other programs.
Outcomes for students have included the
development of abstracts and preprints, poster and oral presentations,
and delivery of these internally and at regional (e.g., the Northeast
Storms Conference) and national professional meetings (e.g., AMS, NWA).
In some instances, manuscripts have been submitted to peer-reviewed
journals. Students continue to be in contact with professionals and
their peers and thus are working directly in the field by considering
and handling all aspects of their research endeavor.
In addition, two students received award
certificates in student research competitions (Phi Kappa Phi and the
Kean University Student Research Award for the College of Natural,
Applied, and Health Sciences). Future plans include the design of an
operational (and outreach support) geo-weather research center (in
association with the Center for Earth Science Education within the
Department of Geology and Meteorology) in which students may provide
important outreach to the broader community both on and off
campus using and developing their skills as a means
of professional development.
Session: Climatological Perspectives
Discovery of the Primary Teleconnection Mechanism (PTM)…the Trigger
Mechanism that Controls Recurring Cycles of the El Niño,
Hurricane Landfalls and other Weather/Climate Cycles. David Dilley,
Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
El Niño events and other short-term
climate oscillations have been extensively studied for decades, but
oceanographers and meteorologists have had great difficulty isolating
the primary physical mechanism(s) that creates and controls these
oscillations. The objective of GWO’s 15 years of ongoing research was
to isolate the Primary Teleconnection Mechanism(s) (PTM) that causes
short-term climate oscillations, and then correlate them with
historical climate data to obtain accurate forecast models. One
such research project correlates the PTM with sea surface temperatures
in the tropical South Pacific Ocean where the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) forms. By doing so, GWO found a 100 percent
correlation between the 22 PTM cycles and the occurrences of all 22 El
Niños dating back to 1921. GWO has documented a near 100
percent correlation between PTM cycles to regional droughts, regional
floods, hurricane strike probabilities and regional seasonal
precipitation. GWO has found that the * Primary Teleconnection
Mechanism (Dilley-PTM) * is the primary mechanism that controls many
weather cycles, and that by using the PTM as a forecast model, these
weather cycles can be forecast years in advance.
The interannual and interdecadal Variability in Hurricane Activity in
the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Ocean. Tamera K. Latham,
Trenton H. Magill, Anthony R. Lupo, Joseph V. Clark and Patrick
S. Market, University of Missouri-Columbia.
The investigation of the interannual and
interdecadal variations in hurricane activity have been an important
topic lately, especially with regard to their implications for climate
change issues. On the interannual time-scale, El Niño has a
significant impact on hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Eastern
Pacific Ocean Basins. Various atmospheric and oceanic parameters that
influence hurricane development become significantly altered during an
El Niño event, leading to suppressed easterly wave development
and growth in the Atlantic, but more activity in the Eastern Pacific
Ocean basin. The effect of the El Niño/La Niña cycle on
hurricane intensity, however, is not straightforward. This study
examined the interannual variability of hurricane intensity (measured
as wind speed and interpreted through the Saffir-Simpson Scale) from
1938 through 2005 in both basins. These data were then compared with
the occurrence of El Niño/La Niña events as defined using
the Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) index. El Nino/La Nina
variability superimposed on variability associated with the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was also examined here. Not surprisingly,
during an El Niño year the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes was
found to be weaker than during a neutral year or a La Niña year,
but these conclusions were opposite in the Eastern Pacific Ocean basin.
There were also significant differences found in hurricane intensity
between El Nino and La Nina years when the PDO was in phase 1, rather
than when the PDO was in phase 2. Finally, this study also examined the
interannual variation in hurricane intensity by genesis region (i.e.
Atlantic: the eastern and western Atlantic Ocean Basins, the Caribbean,
and the Gulf of Mexico; Eastern Pacific: divided into quadrants using
20o N and 125o W).
Informal Look at Some Tornado Related Statistical Trends. Alan E.
Gerard, NOAA/NWS Jackson, MS.
A common perception in the media and general
public seems to be that tornado related fatalities are decreasing
nationwide, while conversely the numbers of tornadoes themselves and
the related damage are increasing. Furthermore, many people
believe that the so-called tornado alley is where most tornado
deaths occur, and that fatalities outside of this area are less
common. We will take an informal look at tornado statistics from
the last 50 years to determine if statistics bear out these commonly
held perceptions. Additionally, recent trends regarding the
numbers of strong and violent tornadoes and associated fatalities will
also be examined.
Trying to Clear up a Foggy Forecast. Thomas L. Salem Jr., NOAA/NWS
Glasgow, MT.
Everywhere people have different folklore or
sayings about the weather. Most of the sayings are predictive in
nature and many have some truth to the statement. For example,
when the sky in the evening is red there are typically no weather
systems to the west, thus the first line of the famous saying Red sky
at night, sailor’s delight.
In the high plains of Montana many people
believe that fog will predict the weather 90 days later. There
are a couple of forms of the saying. One being 90 days after fog
there will be a change in the weather. This one could be
partially true as the seasons are about 90 days long. However,
the one most widely believed and repeated in northeast Montana is 90
days after fog, heavy rain will fall. Some people have said
they mark their calendars.
The weather in northeast Montana is semi-arid,
thus a prediction of rain 90 days out is quite a valuable tool.
This study will look for the origins of the saying and whether there is
any truth to the statement by looking at the available climate record
for Glasgow and correlating occurrences of fog with precipitation 90
days later. The study will compare the frequency of fog events
and precipitation events to determine correlation statistics.
Poster Session II
P2.1 The COMET Planatary Boundary Layer Symposium: Options for
Offering Advanced Meteorology Education at a Distance. Bruce Muller,
UCAR/COMET, Joseph Lamos, UCAR/COMET, Gregory Byrd,
UCAR/COMET, and Brian Motta, National Weather Service.
The COMAP Boundary Layer Symposium has
traditionally been a residence classroom course taking place over 4.5
days at the COMET classroom facility in Boulder, Colorado. With an eye
towards reducing travel costs in the NWS training budget, the COMET
Program proposed offering it as a synchronous on-line or virtual
symposium. Instructors will be broadcasting their presentations and lab
assignments from the COMET classroom via the Internet to participants
located at their local forecast offices. The August 2004 in-residence
offering of the Symposium serves as the basis for converting the course
from the traditional on-site offering to an on-line version. The first
virtual offering takes place in September 2006.
The instructional goal of the symposium
is to improve the operational understanding of PBL processes and,
thereby, improve the accuracy of weather forecasts which have high
temporal and spatial resolution. The course is anchored scientifically
through an improved understanding of components in the surface energy
budget. Operational application of these fundamental concepts ranges
from predicting the depth of the PBL, to the vertical transport of
heat, moisture and momentum, and the impact of small-scale processes on
larger-scale phenomena. The challenge for students will be
implementation of this knowledge at the local WFO. Participants have
opportunities to share information on local boundary layer issues
during the course.
In addition to the instructional goals, this
virtual offering focuses on creating an effective learning experience
for remote participants. This is COMET's first comprehensive course
offered solely to off-site students. As such, many of the goals of this
project address technical concerns and curriculum development as they
pertain to on-line course offerings. These goals include:
Revising the existing curriculum to best match
the constraints of a synchronous on-line course and the technologies
used for distributing such a course; Developing a course website that
effectively builds and supports a learning community; Identifying the
most effective tool(s), within our current means, for broadcasting (and
recording for reuse) presentations; Identifying a suitable format for
presenting interactive case studies at a distance.
We will report on the successes and
lessons learned from offering an advanced meteorology symposium at a
distance and will discuss planned changes in anticipation of the next
offering to take place in FY2007.
P2.2 NAM WRF Training Available from the Cooperative Program for
Meteorological Education and Training (COMET). By William R. Bua
and Stephen D. Jascourt, Project Scientists, UCAR/COMET Gregory Byrd,
Senior Meteorologist, UCAR/COMET
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental
Modeling Center (EMC) will have replaced the NAM-Eta model in June 2006
with the North American Mesoscale (NAM) Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) model and replaced the Eta 3d-var analysis with a new
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis. In response, the
Cooperative Program for Meteorological Education and Training (COMET)
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) team has created a series of
training modules to help NWS and other forecasters make intelligent use
of this new model. A webcast was prepared to introduce the WRF
concept and discuss the dynamics, physics, data assimilation, and
post-processing components of the new model, including expected changes
in model forecast characteristics when compared to the NAM-Eta model
that the NAM WRF replaced. Additional training will have been
provided through a series of live teletraining sessions focusing on
case examples comparing how the two models handle various forecast
situations. Teletraining sessions offer the advantage of allowing
interaction among forecasters from multiple weather forecast offices
(WFOs) so that the trainees can share ideas and observations about the
relative capabilities and limitations of the two models. The
teletraining will be archived as a self-contained package anyone can
access and view without any special software. Finally, the
one-stop, NWP model matrix (found at URL:
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2) is being updated to include all this
information on the NAM-WRF for ease of access by forecasters and
trainers. All NAM WRF training can be found on the website for
NWP: meted.ucar.edu/topics_nwp.php.
The presentation will first briefly
discuss the new NAM WRF model and differences from the NAM-Eta.
Then, examples of each module of the NAM WRF model training will be
shown. Finally, plans for future training on the NAM WRF will be
presented.
P2.3 Hurricane Katrina - Backup Operations by the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center. David B. Reed, NOAA/NWS LMRFC, Slidell, LA.
August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made
landfall along the Louisiana-Mississippi coastline and finally
Mississippi coastline causing widespread and catastrophic
damages. The Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC), the
WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge, and their staffs were significantly
impacted by Katrina. The facility s commercial power and all
communications except inbound AWIPS satellite communications, were lost
for nearly a tw0-week period. During this two-week period, LMRFC
utilized a mobile backup system designed for off-site operations to
provide critical forecasts.
In 2002, the Arkansas-Red Basins River
Forecast Center (ABRFC) developed a portable backup computer system
with capabilities to perform the basic tasks of processing incoming
hydrologic data, making hydrologic model runs, and finally transmitting
the forecasts to AWIPS. In 2003, the LMRFC implemented this
backup system for their operations. After Katrina made landfall,
this system proved extremely beneficial by allowing a portion of the
LMRFC that had moved to a remote location to provide critical forecasts
to the WFOs.
On August 28, LMRFC deployed two forecasters
to WFO Jackson and they established backup operations there using the
backup laptop system consisting of a server and two workstations.
The system was connected to a frame relay circuit to provide
communications. A hydrologist from Southern Region Headquarters
who was also a previous LMRFC employee joined this group to assist in
backup operations. Around 9AM on August 29 as Katrina made
secondary landfall near Slidell, LA, the LMRFC lost all external
communications. LMRFC had issued most of the forecasts for their
service area by that time. At about the same time, WFO
Jackson lost all Internet connectivity rendering the backup system
inoperable.
To continue operations, the LMRFC hydrologists
in Jackson quickly moved backup operations to WFO Memphis. They
were able to re-establish operations and continued to provide critical
river and flood forecasts for the next three days. After three
days, backup operations were moved to West Gulf River Forecast Center
(WGRFC) to take advantage of the knowledge and expertise of the
resident hydrologists there. A relief crew of three hydrologists
from LMRFC re-established backup operations at the West Gulf River
Forecast Center (WGRFC). On September 12, operations were
transferred back to LMRFC.
Several valuable lessons were learned during
this event that will prove useful to backup operations in the
future. Despite the lessons learned, LMRFC continued to provide
critical forecasts to support the WFOs it serves.
P2.4 The North American Monsoon System: Integrating Findings from NAME
2004 into Conceptual Forecasting Models. Erik Pytlak, NWS Tuscon, AZ.
Over the past 50 years, our
understanding of the North American Monsoon system, and the hazardous
weather it generates in the desert Southwest, has gradually
advanced. Forecasting in the monsoon regime is quite complicated
given the areas complex topography, the weak synoptic and mesoscale
forcing mechanisms that have a strong modulating influence on
thunderstorm coverage and intensity, and the lack of observational data
from key moisture source regions in Mexico.
In 2004, the North American Monsoon Experiment
(NAME) Field Campaign was conducted in the Southwest U.S. and northwest
Mexico. Using numerous remote- and direct-sensing platforms, and
using forecaster experience gained during the project, some of the
conceptual models used by forecasters within the monsoon region are
once again evolving. This presentation will outline our current
conceptual synoptic and mesoscale models, and show how emerging
findings from NAME are likely to help in more timely and accurate
forecasts of flash floods and severe thunderstorms within the monsoon
regime.
P2.5 A Climatology of Seasonal Variability in Flight Categories for
Selected Airports in Northern and Central Virginia, Northeastern
Maryland and Eastern West Virginia. Katherine A. LaBelle,
The Pennsylvania State University, Dept. Meteorology, Roger Smith,
NOAA/NWS.
The weather affecting aviation interests
across the Mid Atlantic region exhibits considerable seasonal
variability. A climatology for all flight categories will be compiled
for Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA), Washington Dulles
International Airport (IAD), Baltimore/Washington International
Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI), Martin State Airport (MTN), and
Eastern West Virginia Regional Airport/Shepherd Field (MRB) and
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport (CHO) for each of the four
meteorological seasons over a 30 year period from 1970 through
2001. The study will examine events at or below MVFR caused by
cloud ceilings, visibilities, or both cloud ceilings and visibilities.
P2.6 Comparison of CAD Events at DCA/BWI/IAD Which Produce Low Ceilings
and Low Visibilities and CAD Events That Produce Ceilings and
Visibilities Which Have a Lesser Impact on Aviation. Katherine A.
LaBelle, The Pennsylvania State University, Dept. Meteorology,
and Roger Smith, NOAA/NWS.
CAD (Cold Air Damming) events affect the Mid
Atlantic region most commonly during the winter and spring seasons,
although these events can occur any time during the year. East to
northeast boundary layer flow around a surface anticyclone to the north
or northeast of the region can bring stratus clouds and fog inland from
the Atlantic Ocean. On some occasions this marine layer will extend
westward to the Allegheny Front, while at other times it may just
affect the land masses immediately adjacent to the western shore of the
Chesapeake Bay. Airports in consideration for this study are Ronald
Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA), Washington Dulles
International Airport (IAD) and Baltimore/Washington International
Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI).
BWI will serve as a site near the coast of the Chesapeake Bay, while
DCA and IAD will be studied to reflect conditions further inland.
Composites of the synoptic conditions leading
to CAD events with ceilings of less than 1000 feet and /or visibilities
less than 3 miles will be contrasted to composites of CAD events with
ceilings greater than or equal to 1000 feet and /or visibilities
greater than or equal to 3 miles. The subset of CAD events which
produce the lower ceilings and visibilities specified above will be
divided into groups based on the total duration of the event.
Composites of the synoptic conditions of these groups will be examined
to identify features of events lasting less than 24 hours, between 24
and 48 hours, and greater than 48 hours.
P2.7 Comparison of NAM and GFS Model Turbulence Index Performance Based
on Analysis of Pilot Reports. Gary P. Ellrod, NOAA/NESDIS (Retired).
Since the early 1990's, an index for the
diagnosis of high altitude, clear air turbulence (CAT) derived from
numerical model data has been routinely used in support of aviation
operations (Ellrod and Knapp 1992). The turbulence index (TI)
uses the product of the horizontal deformation and vertical wind shear
between two standard pressure levels as the basis for depicting areas
where the potential for CAT is high. Over the Continental United States
(CONUS), wind and pressure height data from the higher resolution North
American Model (NAM) (formerly the ETA model) are normally used in the
TI, while the lower resolution Global Forecast System (GFS) (formerly
the AVN model) data is used to generate the TI for flights beyond the
CONUS. There have been recent improvements to the GFS that have
resulted in better upper wind forecasts. The GFS model improved
to 35 km horizontal resolution, with 64 vertical layers, when it was
activated on May 31, 2005, and the low bias in the jet stream maximum
winds was reduced by 5-10 m s-1 (Campana et al 2005). Since it
has been quite a while since the TI thresholds have been calibrated, it
was felt that this would be a good time to re-evaluate the TI
performance using both models over the CONUS. A comparison of
subjective aircraft turbulence pilot reports with co-located TI values
was begun in spring, 2006. This paper will describe the preliminary
results of that analysis.
P2.8 Analysis of Rapidly Developing Low Cloud Ceilings in a Stable
Environment.
William H. Bauman III, ENSCO, Inc/Applied Meteorology Unit, Cocoa
Beach, FL, Joe H. Barrett III, ENSCO, Inc/Applied Meteorology Unit,
Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc/Applied Meteorology Unit, Mark M. Wheeler,
ENSCO, Inc/Applied Meteorology Unit, and G. Wayne Baggett, NOAA/NWS
Spaceflight Meteorology Group
Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group
(SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at the
Space Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) to support Space Shuttle landings.
Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number
one forecast challenge for SMG. More specifically, forecasters at SMG
are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 ft
in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the Applied
Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to examine archived events of rapid
stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and
document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud
development.
The AMU examined the cool season months of
November to March during the years of 1993 {2003 for days that had
low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that
resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle Flight Rules. The AMU
wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the
morning (~10 UTC) Cape Canaveral, FL rawinsonde (XMR) during the cool
season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days
with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of
possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Days with precipitation
or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database.
In the first phase of this work, only the daytime hours were examined
for possible ceiling development events since low clouds are easier to
diagnose with visible satellite imagery. Phase II of this work includes
expanding the database to include nighttime cases which is underway as
this abstract is being written.
For the nighttime cases, the AMU will analyze
both the 00 UTC soundings and the 10 UTC soundings to examine those
data for the presence of a low-level inversion. The 00 UTC soundings
will probably not have a surface-based inversion, but the presence of
inversions or "neutral" layers aloft and below 8,000 ft will most
likely help define the stable regime, being a thermodynamically
"capped" environment. Occurrences of elevated low-level inversions or
stable layers will be highlighted in conjunction with nights that
experienced a possible development or onset of cloud ceilings below
8,000 ft. Using these criteria to narrow down the database, the AMU
will then use archived IR satellite imagery for these possible events.
This presentation summarizes the composite
meteorological conditions for 20 daytime event days with rapid low
cloud ceiling formation and 48 non-events days consisting of advection
or widespread low cloud ceilings and describes two sample cases of
daytime rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The authors will also
summarize the work from the nighttime cases and describe a
representative sample case from this data set.
For the daytime cases, the distinguishing
factor between the event and non-event days appears to be the vertical
wind profile in the XMR sounding. Eighty-five percent of the event days
had a clockwise turning of the winds with height in the lower to middle
troposphere whereas 83% of the non-events had a counter-clockwise
turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. A
clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates a warm-advection
regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and possible cloud
formation. Meanwhile, a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with
height indicates cold advection or sinking motion in a post-cold
frontal environment.
P2.9 Early Detection of the April 5, 2005 Anatahan Volcano Eruption
using the Guam WSR-88D. Timothy P. Hendricks, NOAA/NWS WFO Guam
The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather
Forecast Office (WFO) Guam has to deal with many varied hazards in its
4.7 million square mile area of responsibility. While tropical cyclones
are the number-one hazard, there are others such as strong monsoon
events, El Nino-induced floods and droughts, earthquakes, grass fires,
tsunamis, and high surf events. Over the last 3 years, volcanic ash and
volcanic haze from the Anatahan Volcano, an island only 180 miles
north-northeast of Guam, have become a concern for Emergency Managers,
meteorologists and the aviation community. Shortly after 1600 UTC April
5, 2005, Anatahan erupted explosively. Reports indicated that the
initial volcanic eruption reached heights of approximately 50,000,
producing ash fall on the most populous of the Mariana Islands Guam,
and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) of Saipan,
Tinian, and Rota.
In a technical report from Michigan Tech University, Rose
(1998) stressed the need for real-time radar data near active volcanoes
since volcanic ash is a serious threat to aviation. Rose (1998)
also stated that timely information on the eruption s onset and
intensity is vital to mitigate the hazards from ash clouds to the
aviation community. The Anatahan eruption on April 5, 2005 was unique
for it occurred well within the range of the Andersen Air Force Base
(PGUA) WSR-88D Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD), located in Mangilao,
Guam about 5 miles southeast of the weather station.
Over the years, many aircraft encounters with volcanic ash
have occurred within minutes or a few hours of an eruption (Johnson and
Casadevall 1994, Smithsonian Institution 2002). The best documented
encounter occurred with the eruption of the Galunggung volcano in
Indonesia in 1982, when a commercial airliner, a Boeing 747, lost power
in all four engines. The aircraft fell from 39,000 feet, finally
restarting the engines and recovering around 12,000 feet just in time
to avoid ditching in the Indian Ocean. Jet aircraft engines can fail
within minutes of encountering a volcanic ash plume. Furthermore,
volcanic ash is highly abrasive and can severely damage windshields,
aircraft turbines, and other internal engine surfaces. Volcanic ash can
also clog up essential filters.
The goal of this paper is to present the chronology
of the April 5, 2005 eruption of Anatahan using data from the PGUA
WSR-88D and GOES-9 (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite).
In addition, the multiple agency coordination effort between WFO Guam,
the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) in Washington DC, the Honolulu
Forecast Office (HFO), other US agencies, and local emergency and
environmental agencies will be discussed.
P2.10 Cold-Season Coupled Upper-Level Jet Streaks in the Northeastern
U.S. Part I: Weak Dynamic Cases. Scott M. Rochette, State
University of New York, College at Brockport, Chad M. Gravelle, Saint
Louis University, Thomas A. Niziol, NOAA's NWS.
A 10-season (1993 - 2003) climatology of
coupled jet streaks east of the Rocky Mountains during the cold season
(October through March) is developed. Preliminary examination of
the upper-level flow regime using the North American Regional
Reanalysis (NARR) dataset revealed 79 possible coupled jet streak
occurrences during the period. Using the General Meteorological
Package (GEMPAK) with the NARR dataset, plan-view and cross-sectional
analyses of the possible occurrences were analyzed to ensure the
interaction of the jet streak circulations. This revealed 39
coupled jet streak cases, which were then subdivided into weak dynamic
and strong dynamic scenarios.
The weak dynamic cases (covered in this
presentation) were characterized by modest surface circulations (MSLP
> 1000 hPa) and open mid-tropospheric waves. Composites of
various parameters, computed before and during the time of coupling,
will be presented via plan-view and cross-sectional analyses.
These results will then be compared with an individual case study to
show the implication that coupled jet streaks have on winter weather
and heavy precipitation, especially during relatively quiescent
synoptic conditions (i.e. surprise snowfall episodes).
P2.11 Cold-Season Coupled Upper-Level Jet Streaks in the
Northeastern U.S. Part II: Strong Dynamic Cases. Scott M. Rochette,
State University of New York, College at Brockport, Chad M. Gravelle,
Saint Louis University, Thomas A. Niziol, NOAA/NWS
A 10-season (1993 2003)
climatology of coupled jet streaks east of the Rocky Mountains during
the cold season (October through March) is developed. Preliminary
examination of the upper-level flow regime using the North American
Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset revealed 79 possible coupled jet
streak occurrences during the period. Using the General
Meteorological Package (GEMPAK) with the NARR dataset, plan-view and
cross-sectional analyses of the possible occurrences were analyzed to
ensure the interaction of the jet streak circulations. This
revealed 39 coupled jet streak cases, which were then subdivided into
weak dynamic and strong dynamic scenarios.
The strong dynamic cases (covered in this
presentation) were characterized by significant surface circulations
(MSLP < 1000 hPa) and moderate to strong (at least one closed height
contour) mid-tropospheric troughs. Composites of various
parameters, computed before and during the time of coupling, will be
presented via plan-view and cross-sectional analyses. These
results will then be compared with an individual case study to show the
implication that coupled jet streaks have on winter weather and heavy
precipitation during episodes of significant cyclogenesis.
P2.12 GOES Winter Precipitation Efficiency Algorithm. Robert Rabin,
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory and Cooperative Institute for
Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison
Space Science and Engineering Center, Jay W. Hanna, NOAA/NESDIS
Satellite Services Division.
Recent studies have shown the importance of
snow microphysics for heavy snowfall. Specifically, snow
production and accumulation appears to be highly efficient when a
maximum in saturated vertical ascent (level of non-divergence) is
collocated within a narrow temperature range (centered at
-15ºC). This temperature range is favorable for efficient
snow production as a result of the preferential growth of ice crystals
by deposition. In addition the dominant crystal type formed in
this temperature range is dendrites which have been shown to be
conducive for high snow to liquid ratios.
To highlight areas conducive for this highly
efficient snowfall a GOES Winter Precipitation Efficiency Algorithm was
developed by the lead author. The GOES Winter Precipitation
Efficiency Algorithm uses cloud products derived from Geostationary
Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Sounder radiances to create
an analysis of the height of the pressure level at -15ºC.
Further refinement of the analysis is conducted by including vertical
velocity output from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) to highlight areas
where the -15ºC pressure level is collocated with moderate lift
(defined in the algorithm as -5µb/sec).
P2.13 The Record Setting Snowfall in New York City on February 11-12,
2006. Nelson Vaz and Chris Jacobson, NOAA/NWS Upton, NY
On February 11-12, 2006, a powerful winter
storm dumped between 10 and 30 inches of snow across the Mid Atlantic
region, with the highest snow totals stretching from Northern New
Jersey through metropolitan New York City and into Western Connecticut.
Snowfall rates of up to 4 inches per hour and whiteout conditions were
widespread across the area during the height of the storm, prompting a
major winter storm rating on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale
(NESIS). In New York City's Central Park, where record-keeping
began in 1869, 26.9 inches of snow fell between 4 PM (EST) Saturday
February 11 and 4 PM Sunday February 12, breaking the previous all-time
storm total record of 26.4 inches set during a storm on December 26-27,
1947.
With such a historic event affecting the
biggest media market in the United States; it was no surprise that the
storm garnered abundant news coverage. By Sunday night, media attention
turned from the storm’s impact on the region to the validity of the
record snowfall measurement at Central Park. Numerous media
requests filed into the local National Weather Service office for
demonstrations on how snowfall is measured and to ascertain the
validity in the record report.
This poster presentation will describe how
this storm provided the record amount of snowfall for the largest city
in the U.S. Collaborative observational data sets including those
from satellite and radar will demonstrate that intense mesoscale heavy
snow banding was responsible for record snow fall total in New York
City. In addition, measurement procedures at Central Park will be
presented.
Finally, an analysis of snow fall versus
liquid equivalents, which was accomplished in real time and considered
air temperatures, will be presented. This analysis strongly
supports the validity of the measurement.
P2.14 A Diagnostic Analysis of Mesoscale Snow Bands which Occurred on
26 February 2003. Michael J. Paddock, Saint Louis University, James T.
Moore, Saint Louis University, and Charles E. Graves, Saint Louis
University.
During the time period from 9 - 20 UTC
on 26 February 2003 mesoscale snow bands
moved across east-central Missouri and southwest Illinois producing 2 -
4 inches of snow. Forecasting this event was challenging, as the only
surface feature of note was an inverted trough, which formed in the
presence of zonal flow aloft. Another interesting feature is the
distinct separation between the snow bands and the broad precipitation
shield to the south. This event does not fit the current conceptual
model of snow band formation with moderate to strong cyclogenesis. This
presentation will focus on the key physical processes associated with
this short-lived mesoscale event, including frontogenesis and the
reduction of equivalent potential vorticity. This case study
illustrates key parameters associated with the new conceptual model
depicted on an adjacent poster. This research is supported by NOAA
CSTAR under award number NA03-NWS4680019.
P2.15 A CONCEPTUAL MODEL DEPICTING PROCESSES IMPORTANT FOR THE
GENERATION OF MESO-BETA SCALE SNOW BANDS. Michael J. Paddock, Saint
Louis University,
Charles E. Graves, Saint Louis University, and James T. Moore, Saint
Louis University.
Meso-beta scale bands of snowfall of 3-6
inches associated with weak cyclogenesis often form in the Midwest
during the winter, presenting a difficult forecast problem. An
investigation of four of these events from February 2003 has revealed
several common factors, which contribute to the mesoscale nature of the
snow bands. A conceptual model depicting these critical kinematic and
thermodynamic processes will be shown. A case study that demonstrates
the key parameters useful for the short-term prediction of these
mesoscale snow bands will be shown on an adjacent poster. This research
is supported by NOAA CSTAR under award number NA03-NWS4680019.
P2.16 An Objective Guidance for Forecasting Lake-Effect Precipitation
Based on Topographical Forcing Downwind of Lake Erie. Kerry Moyer,
Geosciences Department Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, and
Rebecca Byars, Edinboro University.
Lake-effect precipitation can vary widely over
a small geographic area. Accurately forecasting how much precipitation
will fall at a given location throughout the duration of a lake-effect
event remains as one of the chief challenges facing meteorologists in
the Great Lakes region. There are a number of factors which
govern the highly variable nature of lake-effect events. One of
these factors is uplift from topographical features. The uplift
that occurs as air flows over topographic obstacles in its path acts to
locally enhance precipitation rates. Wind-dependent forcing function
maps were generated using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) files available
from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Surfer µ
cartographic software was used to merge the DEM files into a larger
domain of interest and resample the data at a more appropriate spatial
grid interval. Once the topographic data set was assembled, a
finite differencing scheme was utilized to compute vertical motion
forcing functions at each grid point (except those points lying along
the immediate periphery of the domain) for 18 different low-level wind
directions. Contour maps of the gridded vertical motion forcing
function were then generated and overlaid upon a political base map
background which facilitated an easier comparison with observed
precipitation data. It is anticipated that the results from this
study will provide forecasters in this region with an objective source
of guidance with which they may better isolate regions which are
expected to receive locally heavier precipitation during lake-effect
events.
P2.17 A Case Study of the Great Plains Blizzard of 27-28 November
2005. Brian Pettegrew, University of
Missouri-Columbia, John Stoppkotte, NWS North Platte,
NE, Patrick Market, University of Missouri-Columbia,
Chris Melick, University of Missouri-Columbia, and Amy
Becker, University of Missouri-Columbia
An intense mid-latitude cyclone moved
across the central Plains during the days of 27 and 28 November 2005.
The result of this cyclone was to produce winds of hurricane force,
while generating snowfalls of nearly a foot in some locations. In
the end, the combination of extreme winds, snowfall, and ice forced
closure of hundreds of miles of interstate highways in South Dakota,
Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado. In addition, thousands of residences and
businesses were without power for up to two weeks. This review of
the cyclone will encompass many aspects including synoptic and
mesoscale analysis as well as a quick look at other unusual features of
the storm. Specifically, a unique trowal structure is examined in
the context of banded precipitation production.
P2.18 An investigation of the Radar Characteristics and the Environment
of a Mesoscale Snowband that formed on 15 March 2004. Emily
Eisenacher, Saint Louis University, Dr. James Moore, Saint
Louis University, and Dr. Charles Graves, Saint Louis
University.
Mesoscale snowbands cause locally heavy
areas of snowfall; however, it is operationally difficult to predict
the timing and location of mesoscale snowband formation. For this
reason, forecasting mesoscale snowbands becomes a matter of situational
awareness and nowcasting, rather than predicting where the mesoscale
snowbands and locally heavy snowfall will set up before it forms.
An investigation of the temporal and spatial radar characteristics of
mesoscale snowbands along with an investigation of the environment
provides more insight into the time tendency and the orientation of the
mesoscale snowbands compared to the mechanisms
that produce heavy banded snowfall. Mesoscale processes such as
frontogenesis, conditional symmetric instability, and equivalent
potential vorticity and their time tendency are compared to
the spatial and temporal evolution of the radar reflectivity of
mesoscale snowbands.
P2.19 Investigating Stability Evolution of Snowstorms Featuring
Lightning. Larry L. Smith, NWS Medford, OR, and Patrick S.
Market, University of Missouri-Columbia.
Wintertime forecasting can be a difficult
venture for the operational forecaster. Problems arise in predicting
how significant a winter storm will be. Our recent work suggests that
lightning can be a good indicator of a stronger storm system capable of
producing heavy snowfall. These storms can produce up to (and greater
than) six inches of snowfall in a short period of time. Therefore,
understanding the nature of these lightning-producing snowstorms is
beneficial to the operational forecasting community. This study
discriminates between thundersnow (TSSN) events and non-thundering snow
events. Traditional forecasting tools, indices for forecasting the
stability of the atmosphere in the warm season, are tested to determine
if any thresholds exist in the atmospheric stability between TSSN and
non-thundering events. Additionally, this study examines the
implications of the height at which the -10C isotherm, the temperature
of the first atmospheric charge reversal occurs, and where it is
located with respect to the most unstable lifted parcel level
(MULPL). If the level at which the -10C isotherms is located is
within a statically stable layer of the atmosphere, lightning tends not
to occur. This study shows that certain stability indices are
better discriminators for TSSN than others. It will also be shown
that the stability tendency of TSSN events is quite different than that
found in non-thundering snowstorms. In order to illustrate the results
eight TSSN events are examined from several hours prior to lightning
onset until several hours after the cessation of lightning in terms of
stability and the results are compared to a set of seven non-thundering
snow events. Paradoxically, TSSN environments are prone to
stabilization while non-thundering environments are typically
destabilizing.
P2.20 Tornadoes from the Sun. Sokeland, W. P., Retired, Oakland City,
IN.
There are interesting physical effects
accompanying tornadoes. Tornadoes produce unusual electrical activity,
a magnetic field, negative telluric currents and light. The accepted
model for the tornado funnel includes air and water vapor that may be
circulating at sonic velocity, but the observed, scientifically
measured and reported data previously mentioned cannot be generated by
the suggested components of this model. As a result, a new tornado
model is proposed. Tornadoes are mathematically modeled and checked and
correlated against actual tornadoes in the National Climate Data Center
(NCDC) Tornado Archive. Two long, standing debates, the method of
population of the inner Van Allen belts with energetic protons and
electrons and solar processes affecting earth’s surface weather, are
discussed. The power produced in a tornado that simulates the famous
tri-state tornado has a value of 1.4 million Joules/sec m2. Sokeland,
W. P., (2005) SOLAR PILLARS OF FIRE: Part 1: Tornadoes from the Sun,
Journal of Meteorology, UK, Vol. 30, No. 298 (April)
P2.21 Hurricanes from the Sun. Sokeland, W. P., Retired, Oakland City,
IN.
A hurricane is the remnant of a tornado over
an ocean. The possibility of an invisible hurricane or tornado is
proposed. Hurricane structural rainband data are correlated
versus abundant elements in the solar wind using an ionic equation
developed for light element walls surrounding tornadoes. The
first evidence of heavier ions than iron contained in hurricanes and
implied in tornadoes has been detected. The required abundances
for the heavier ions indicate an extraordinary change in basic stellar
physics and/or solar system evolution. The means of hurricane
intensification is proposed as a new tornado entering the hurricane
eye. The near land light show for a hurricane is explained due to
the presence of positive ions in the hurricane eyewall. The
correlation for the spacing of ionic element walls with solar wind
abundant elements in a cyclone and hurricanes is the proof of the new
theory of electro-magnetic severe weather storm structure. Sokeland, W.
P., (2006) SOLAR PILLARS OF FIRE: Part 2. Hurricanes from the Sun,
International Journal of Meteorology, UK, Vol. 31, No. 308 (April)
P2.22 A Thermodynamic Comparison of Two November Tornado Outbreaks in
Alabama. Kristin Scotten, Michael Scotten and Mark W. Rose,
NOAA/NWS Birmingham, AL.
Since 2000, Alabama has experienced a
significant increase in the number of tornado outbreaks during autumn,
mainly in November, with some of these outbreaks causing loss of
life. Many of these autumn tornado outbreaks have occurred in
highly sheared and weak to moderately unstable environments.
This study compares two different autumn
tornado outbreaks, 24 November 2001 and 28 November 2005, which
occurred under similar synoptic patterns. Though the large scale
forcing for the events was comparable, the 2001 outbreak produced four
times the number of tornadoes than the 2005 outbreak. Not only
were there more tornadoes with the 2001 outbreak, most of the tornadoes
were stronger as well. Both outbreaks were anticipated well
in advance by model forecasts, the Storm Prediction Center , and
Weather Forecast Offices.
Given the similarities in synoptic forcing and
the disparity in tornado number and strength, it is important for
meteorologists to research these types of events to recognize any
mesoscale or thermodynamic clues which could differentiate the two
systems. In this case study, similar upper level dynamics were
present, however subtle differences in mesoscale boundaries, mid level
capping, instability, and low level convective available potential
energy (CAPE) likely led to two very different outcomes in these
tornado outbreaks.
P2.23 A Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology for the Lower Great
Lakes: Implications for Sea Breeze and Lake Effect Precipitation
Forecasting. Scott M. Steiger, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, SUNY Oswego,
Robert Hamilton, NOAA/NWS, and Jason Keeler, SUNY Oswego.
Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash density
climatologies have aided weather forecasters along the Gulf Coast for
several years in predicting convective initiation and location.
Even though lightning activity is significantly less in the lower Great
Lakes region of the United States, convection occurs year round and is
influenced by these large bodies of water. National Lightning
Detection Network (NLDN) data from 1989-2005 (17 years) show enhanced
CG flash densities along the southern and eastern shores of Lake
Ontario. Large flash density values occurred in western
Pennsylvania and Ohio, with a sharp gradient (decrease northward) along
the southern Lake Erie shore.
Winter (December, January, and February)
exhibited minimal activity over Lake Erie, but CG flash density maxima
were located over northern Lake Ontario oriented in southwest-northeast
multibands (this pattern was most evident during the 00-12Z time
period). A band of enhanced activity along the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline extending southeast of the lake was prevalent during
the spring (MAM). Lightning activity was minimal over Lakes Erie
and Ontario during the summer (JJA). There were also CG density
relative minima in the Finger Lakes region of New York State, and
enhanced lightning activity around Lake Ontario showed evidence of a
sea breeze convergence zone during the summer. A distinct density
minimum occurred in central Pennsylvania, possibly associated with a
valley. During the fall (SON) a significant enhancement in CG
flash density was observed immediately south of Buffalo, NY and along
the southern coasts of Lakes Erie and Ontario. A "hot spot" was
over Oswego County during this time period.
Future research includes testing hypotheses to
explain these observations (lake-effect thundersnow processes, sea
breeze convergence, and topographical effects). A major
thundersnow event occurred over Oswego, NY on 2 December 2005, when
visually observed total flash rates (intra-cloud and CG) approached 1
flash (2 min)-1 for over 30 minutes. We plan on thoroughly
analyzing radar and NLDN CG data for this event, along with surface and
upper-air observations to gain insight into this dangerous phenomenon
(especially because the public does not expect it during a snowstorm).
P2.24 Inland Lake Surges Associated with Hurricanes Katrina and
Rita. Lance Wood,
NWS Houston/Galveston, TX, Dave Schwertz, NWS Houston/Galveston,
TX, and Marty Pope, NWS Jackson, MS.
The United States experienced more landfalling
major hurricanes (4) during the 2005 hurricane season than in any
previously recorded season. Two of these hurricanes (Katrina and Rita)
made landfall along the northern gulf coast in regions which had not
experienced a major hurricane in over 35 years. Therefore, it should
not be a surprise that inland lake/reservoir surges associated with
these hurricanes were unexpected and caused severe damage to dams at
both Lake Livingston in Texas, and the Ross Barnett Reservoir in
Mississippi.
Damage to both dams was in the millions of
dollars as rip rap protecting the dams was washed away by high water
levels and wave action. This wave action caused significant erosion to
the exposed earthen dams. In both cases, the landfalling hurricanes
tracked east of the lake/reservoir which allowed for a persistent and
strong (>40 knots) northerly wind for several hours. The
nearly uniform wind direction being aligned along the main axis of the
lake/reservoir caused water to pile up against the dams on the south
ends of these bodies of water. The passage of Hurricane Rita marked the
first occurrence of a significant hurricane induced lake surge on Lake
Livingston. The last major hurricane to take a somewhat similar track
to Hurricane Rita was Hurricane Audrey in 1957, well before the lake
was created in 1969. In that same year, Hurricane Camille moved
over Ross Barnett Reservoir just 4 years after its dedication in
1965. Water levels and winds that occurred as a result of Camille
crossing the Ross Barnett Reservoir were documented in a study by the
USGS in 1972, and will be compared to the water levels and winds that
were generated by Hurricane Katrina as the hurricane made a close
approach to the reservoir on August 29th, 2005.
Several hours after Hurricane Rita made
landfall on September 24th, 2005, dam operators at Lake Livingston were
fearful that the dam could break due to the significant damage that was
occurring to the dam. Therefore, water was released at a high rate
through the flood gates, and an evacuation of communities immediately
downstream was ordered. Fortunately, the water releases from the dam
quickly abated the failure danger. Details concerning the water
discharge rates as well as damage pictures at both dams are provided
for future reference.
P2.25 Graphically Depicting the Hazardous Weather in southern middle
Tennessee and north Alabama. Brian C. Carcione, NWS Huntsville, AL,
Christopher P. Darden, John M. Coyne, Timothy W. Troutman, and
Jason E. Burks, all from NWS Huntsville, AL.
This paper will document the new technology
advances that have allowed for the depiction of hazardous weather
information of NWS Huntsville, Alabama. The need to convey visual-based
hazardous weather information to local and state emergency management,
the media and the public led to the development of a series of graphics
that depict the types of hazardous weather threats that are most
predominant in southern middle Tennessee and north Alabama.
The graphical hazardous weather outlooks
(GHWO) on the NWS Huntsville, Alabama web site include specific
criteria to activate SKYWARN spotters across the Tennessee valley,
three levels of flash flood threats, five thunderstorm threat levels,
winter weather threat types and probabilities of occurrence and
predominant weather threat types. The graphical hazardous weather
outlook complements the text-based hazardous weather outlook (HWO)
products that are issued by NWS Huntsville. These HWO products provide
a fine-tuned assessment of threats for the NWS s customers across
southern middle Tennessee and north Alabama.
Since the graphical hazardous weather outlook
has been implemented, positive customer feedback has led to further
changes and improvements to the products. This feedback has led to the
reception of more timely and accurate forecast and warning information
by EMAs, media and the public.
P2.26 Characteristics of Cool Season Severe Environments in the Ohio
Valley (1995-2006). Bryan Smith NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Indianapolis,
IN and Ball State University, Muncie, IN, Chad Omitt, NOAA/NWS Forecast
Office, Indianapolis, IN, and Jared Guyer, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction
Center, Norman, OK
While the spring and summer months are
typically the severe weather climatological peak for the Ohio Valley,
severe thunderstorms and deadly regional tornado outbreaks can occur
during the cool season months (e.g., October-March). In an effort
to better document and improve operational forecasting of these events,
this study focuses on cool season severe thunderstorm environments in
the Ohio Valley for the 1995-2006 cool seasons.
Most supercell tornado events in the Ohio
Valley during the cool season are characterized by low instability/high
shear environments. Preliminary findings suggest small changes in
available instability can be responsible for distinct changes in storm
mode and severity. One example of a storm in this environment was
the 6 November 2005 Evansville, Indiana supercell that spawned a deadly
F3 tornado. In addition to investigating Doppler radar data, this
study will focus on the synoptic and mesoscale environments for each
cool season event.
P2.27 The Evansville Area Tornado. Christine Wielgos and Patrick
J. Spoden, NOAA/NWS Paducah, KY, and Ron Przybylinski, NOAA/NWS
St. Louis, MO.
A large tornado that caused F3 intensity
damage touched down during the early morning hours of 6 November 2005
in northwest Kentucky and moved at speeds close to 35 m s-1 into
southwest Indiana. Part of the 41 mile track included the Eastbrook
Mobile Home Park, where it caused twenty fatalities (twenty-four total
fatalities along the path length) and hundreds of injuries
occurred.
This presentation will review the near-storm
environment associated with the Evansville and other nearby tornadic
supercells. The supercells formed in a high shear, low CAPE
environment. Low-level moisture rapidly traveled northward towards the
mid-Mississippi Valley region during the late evening hours through
early morning hours of 6 November 2005 with surface dewpoints reaching
near 17 oC. This resulted in 0-1 km most unstable CAPE values
near 1000 J/kg. Magnitudes of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
values from the RUC model also increased leading up to tornadogenesis
and reached values near 400 m2s-2. Vertical Wind Profilers from the
WSR-88D at WFO Paducah and the Doppler Radar near Evansville, Indiana
showed that the mid-to-upper level jet increased from 40 ms-1 to 50
ms-1 just prior to tornadogenesis.
The storms moved across the Lower Ohio Valley
region in the form of supercell clusters. As the mid-level jet impinged
upon the supercells, storm-scale rotation dramatically increased and
tornadogenesis rapidly occurred. This case will show the importance of
rapid warning decision making in an environment that was not clearly
tornadic before the tornadoes developed. A detailed radar examination
will be provided.
P2.28 A Thermodynamic Investigation of the Early Afternoon Wet
Microburst Pre-Storm Environment over Southern Alabama and the Western
Florida Panhandle. Jeffrey M. Medlin, and Jack Cullen, NOAA/NWS Mobile,
AL.
Using Eglin Air Force Base, Florida afternoon
rawinsonde sounding data, this study investigated the thermodynamic
characteristics of the summertime U.S. Gulf Coast wet microburst
environment. Uniquely, these soundings sampled the troposphere during a
period (1700-2100 UTC) of weak vertical wind shear, peak boundary layer
mixing and thermodynamic instability prior to the release of deep
convection. Using data over a six year period (1998-2003), mean
soundings were generated to operationally distinguish between wet
microburst event and non-event days (i.e., days with thunderstorms, but
no microbursts). A composite of summer month mean soundings was
generated to illustrate the effects of seasonal progression on the
regional thermal and moisture vertical
profiles.
The event day mean sounding is warmer and more
moist below the melting level and vice versa above. It possesses a
greater surface to freezing level lapse rate and a higher absolute
value of boundary layer moisture compared to the non-event mean
sounding. The chance of a wet microburst occurring becomes relatively
higher when mixed-layer convective available potential energy >3095
J kg-1, surface-900 hPa mean mixing ratio >17.6 g kg-1,
surface-freezing level lapse rates >7.97 C km-1 and relatively lower
when mixed-layer convective available potential energy <1350 J kg-1,
surface-900 hPa mean mixing ratio <13.5 g kg-1, surface-freezing
level lapse rates <6.84 C km-1. Seventy-five percent of the
non-event mixed-layer convective available potential energy
distribution is <1350 J kg-1, which in itself, provides a great deal
of confidence when forecasting the non-event. Not unlike past studies,
results reveal that in order for a microburst to occur in this type of
environment, enough thermodynamic instability must first exist in order
to produce a strong enough updraft to reach well into the dry layer.
P2.29 The Primary Teleconnection Mechanism (PTM)…Trigger Mechanism that
Controls Recurring Cycles of the El Niño, Hurricane Landfalls
and other Weather/Climate Cycles. David Dilley, Global Weather
Oscillations Inc.
El Niño events and other short-term
climate oscillations have been extensively studied for decades, but
oceanographers and meteorologists have had great difficulty isolating
the primary physical mechanism(s) that creates and controls these
oscillations. The objective of GWO’s 15 years of ongoing research was
to isolate the Primary Teleconnection Mechanism(s) (PTM) that causes
short-term climate oscillations, and then correlate them with
historical climate data to obtain accurate forecast models. One
such research project correlates the PTM with sea surface temperatures
in the tropical South Pacific Ocean where the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) forms. By doing so, GWO found a 100 percent
correlation between the 22 PTM cycles and the occurrences of all 22 El
Niños dating back to 1921. GWO has documented a near 100
percent correlation between PTM cycles to regional droughts, regional
floods, hurricane strike probabilities and regional seasonal
precipitation. GWO has found that the * Primary Teleconnection
Mechanism (Dilley-PTM) * is the primary mechanism that controls many
weather cycles, and that by using the PTM as a forecast model, these
weather cycles can be forecast years in advance.
Session: Weather Impact on Aviation
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters Missions and the 2005-2006
Tropical Cyclone Season. Invited Speaker: Major John Gordon,
United States Air Force Reserve, Keesler Air Force Base, MS.
Today, a typical hurricane warning costs over
$250 million due to preparation, evacuation, and lost commerce.
Narrowing the warning area could save around $1 million per mile of
coastline, and also lend greater credibility to forecasts and foster
more controlled and limited coastal evacuations. Furthermore, as
coastal populations continue to grow, evacuation decisions need to be
made earlier; a few areas already require over 48 hours to clear in
advance of a major hurricane.
The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron at
Keesler Air Force Base flies several different missions including Low
Level Invests, Tropical Cyclones, Buoy Drops, Winter Storms and
research missions.
Tropical Cyclone Missions
When conditions favorable for hurricane
development are observed, either by surface observation or by weather
satellite, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), alerts the flying
weather crews. The Hurricane Hunters begin flying tropical storm
systems whenever they pose a threat, from the middle of the Atlantic
Ocean (west of longitude 55W), across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico,
and also in the vicinity of Hawaii. Their job: Using WC-130 J model
aircraft to determine the precise location, motion, strength, and size
of the storm, and transmit the information by satellite to the NHC. The
crews provide extremely detailed measurements of the temperature,
humidity, pressure and winds in the lower to mid troposphere. The
aircraft are capable of collecting research-quality data down to one
second intervals. This highly accurate information has improved
hurricane forecasts by 25%. In 2004 and 2005, the unit flew nearly
every day since July 4th, sometimes into two different storms
simultaneously. The unit flew three category 5 storms, KATRINA, RITA,
and 2 mile wide WILMA in October.
In 2005, the above average tropical cyclone
forecast came to fruition with major hurricanes DENNIS and EMILY
occurring early in the year, and Category 5 storms KATRINA and RITA
occurring during the peak of the season. 2005 was also the first
tropical cyclone season on record to go through the entire alphabet in
the Atlantic basin. The 2006 tropical cyclone season is once
again forecast to be above normal. In Cleveland, you will see an
incredible amount of horizontal and vertical meteorological data, along
with some amazing pictures inside and outside of the aircraft from the
2006 season.
Generation and Application of Gridded Aviation Forecast Parameters in
GFE and AvnFPS.
Chris Leonardi, NOAA/NWS Charleston, WV.
The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD),
a product of NOAA National Weather Service, provides
high-resolution forecasts for a variety of "public" forecast
parameters. In its present form, aviation elements are not
included. From point-based forecast generation to dynamic route
forecasts, a national database of gridded aviation parameters could
provide a wide array of valuable services to the aviation community.
WFO Charleston, WV is providing experimental
gridded ceiling height and surface visibility information. Also, the
Gridded Forecast Editor (GFE) and Aviation Forecast Preparation System
(AvnFPS) software are being used to generate first-guess Terminal
Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) from the gridded parameters. This
presentation will detail the tools and methodology used in the forecast
process, as well as the challenges and successes that we have
encountered thus far.
The Fog Remote Sensing and Modeling (FRAM) Field Project And
Preliminary Results.
Ismail Gultepe, Environment Canada, Cloud Physics and Severe Weather
Res. Sec., Science and Tech. Branch.
The purpose of the Fog Remote Sensing And
Modeling (FRAM) field project is to characterize fog formation,
evolution, and dissipation in continental and marine environments, and
then to use the derived results in numerical simulations and remote
sensing applications. Phase 1 of the project took place during the
winter of 2005-2006 in southern Ontario. Phase 2 of the project took
place during the summer of 2006 in Nova Scotia along the Atlantic
coast. These phases focus on winter continental fog and summer marine
fog, respectively. Observations include droplet, ice, and aerosols
sizes and concentrations from optical probes, visibility from a
visibility meter, liquid water path from a microwave radiometers (MWR),
and inferred fog properties such as mean volume diameter, liquid water
content, number concentration, and fog regions from satellites. The
results were used to develop microphysical parameterizations which
could be incorporated in numerical forecast models. During the winter
of 2005-2006, an increased frequency of fog formation was observed in
southern Ontario relative to the 30-year climatology. It is suggested
that the combination of snow on the surface during several rain events
caused this increase in frequency. Rain falling on a snow surface
resulted in a release of latent heat which caused evaporation of snow,
higher boundary layer saturations, and fog formation. Overall, the
mechanisms for fog formation, along with some model simulations using
the derived microphysical parameterizations were discussed.
Cold Season Fog in the Northern Mid-Atlantic States: Spatial
Characteristics and Behaviors by Synoptic Weather Regimes. Paul
J. Croft, Kean University, and Aaron N. Burton, Kean University.
Fog is a major factor for airport operations
and understanding the factors that generate widespread versus localized
fog under varying synoptic weather patterns is of importance to
forecasters and airport terminal managers. Therefore the occurrence of
fog during the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 winter seasons (December through
February, 180 days) was examined based on the frequencies of fog
occurrence for 14 stations in the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Data
were obtained for each site from monthly climatic summaries available
online to determine both the frequency of fog occurrence days (i.e., at
least one station reporting fog on that date) and those days when dense
fog was also reported. The intent was to identify the spatial
characteristics and behaviors of fog according to the prevailing
synoptic weather regime. The spatial distribution was analyzed with
regard to patterns of maxima and minima with the coverage considered by
each event type. When more than 10 stations reported fog, the event was
classified as widespread (i.e., 71% of the stations experienced fog);
when the number of stations was 4 to 10 it was considered to be
discontinuous (29% to 71% of all stations); and when less than 4
sites recorded fog it was defined to be localized (or
isolated, less than 29% of all locations).
An initial examination of the data indicated
141 fog events, or days when fog occurred at one or more stations,
occurred 78% of the study period (two cold seasons). Plots of fog
frequencies clearly identified patterns of maxima in specific coastal
and mountain regions (e.g., KISP and KMPO). Fog events by synoptic type
indicated 58 were associated with high pressure, 40 with low pressure,
and 43 with fronts. These basic synoptic types were also examined with
regard to the location of the synoptic features relative to New Jersey
(e.g., to the south, southwest, west, et cetera). Of these, events with
low pressure positioned to the south and southwest produced widespread
fog in every instance. Warm fronts had the highest percentage (32%) of
stations reporting dense fog during an event. Non-event days (no fog in
the study region) were also examined and classified by synoptic type in
order to evaluate null cases with regard to variations in their dynamic
features from those cases which produced fog. The findings were then
considered through an examination of the 2005-2006 cold season to apply
and test the methodology and discern the robustness of the results.
Attempts were also made to improve identification of fog coverage
through the use of satellite imagery and animations as well as by
inspection of hourly surface observation data to determine the
processes leading to fog occurrence.
Aircraft Icing Risk and Maximum Icing Altitude Estimates from GOES:
Verification of the Experimental Product. Gary P. Ellrod,
NOAA/NESDIS (Retired), and Andrew Bailey,
Raytheon.
In early 2004, an experimental product derived
from GOES Imager data that shows areas of potential aircraft icing,
combined with cloud top heights from the GOES Sounder, became routinely
available on a NOAA/NESDIS Web page.* The combined product is
referred to as 'ICECAP' (Icing Enhanced Cloud-top Altitude Product).
The risk of icing (yes or no) is determined with the help of three GOES
IR channels, and the visible channel during daylight hours. Operational
cloud top heights are provided only for likely areas of icing,
color-coded in six thousand foot intervals.
Verification data has been collected on the
GOES icing product by means of the Real-Time Verification System (RTVS)
operated by NOAA's Earth Systems Research Laboratory. A separate
study was performed to evaluate the quality of the cloud top heights in
the context of inflight icing situations. This paper will
summarize those results, using Probability of Detection for both icing
and no icing, False Alarm Rate, True Skill Statistics, and Relative
Operating characteristics, for a two year period. The statistics
showed that the GOES icing risk product verified somewhat better than
the National Weather Service (NWS) AIRMETs for moderate or greater
icing, but not as well as the operational NWS Current Icing Product
(CIP), which is derived from a blend of numerical model, radar,
satellite, and pilot report (PIREP) data. The ICECAP cloud top heights
were determined to be representative of the maximum height of icing
conditions based on comparisons with aircraft pilot reports. Although
ICECAP is not as effective as the CIP, it is nonetheless a good
first-look, satellite only product for assessment of current icing
conditions. Since it does not require PIREPs and radar data, it is
especially well-suited for remote areas.
Using a Mesoscale Model to Identify Convective Initiation in an Air
Route Traffic Control Center/Center Weather Service Unit (ARTCC/CWSU)
Environment. Warren Snyder, NOAA/NWS WFO Albany, NY,
Mark R. McKinley, CWSU Oberlin, and Allison R. Vegh, SUNY
Brockport.
Thunderstorms account for 24% of all air traffic delays by
significantly diminishing the National Airspace System s (NAS) capacity
to route aircraft. The NAS is managed at Air Route Traffic
Control Centers (ARTCC) by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
personnel, who receive their weather forecasts and data from co-located
Center Weather Service Units (CWSU), operated by the National Weather
Service. This study provided real-time mesoscale model output
from the Work Station Eta (WSEta) to one of these CWSUs located at
Oberlin, Ohio. The model data was assessed to determine whether
thunderstorm/ convective initiation are forecastable from model fields
during the first 24 hours. In addition anecdotal evidence was sought to
determine the data s usefulness to the CWSU forecasters. This
study, using a 29 case dataset from August 2004 to June 2005 over the
Oberlin CWSU area of responsibility, identified three WSEta
meteorological parameters that were credible predictors of thunderstorm
initiation: hourly convective precipitation, 700 hPa omega, and 250 hPa
divergence. The results from this study and the utility of the WSEta
will be presented. In addition work in progress using much more
accurate National Lightning Detection Network Data will be presented.
These cases look at the summer of 2005 across the Oberlin CWSU and
compare the model forecast of convective initiation using these
parameters, and the NLDN strokes. This data looks quite promising
with most of the events within one to two hours and under 100 km.
A Weather Decision Aid for Unmanned Aircraft Missions. David Knapp,
U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM, Edward
Measure, David Sauter, and Terry Jameson all with the US Army Research
Laboratory.
The development and employment of Unmanned
Aircraft Systems (UAS) has significantly expanded over the past few
years to serve a wide variety of aviation uses. The U.S. military
s use of UAS in operations at all levels of the atmosphere has produced
a requirement for fine-tuned precision weather forecasts and enroute
updates of weather conditions which have not been met by current
forecasting and data presentation capabilities. Military
forecasters who support UAS missions and their UAS customers are faced
with the need for pinpoint enroute UAS weather sensitivity predictions
to plan and execute the UAS missions. The current operational
tactical decision aid (TDA) for weather effects on UAS requires
repetitive operator tasks in order to produce a complete assessment
along the planned flight route. An automated UAS Weather TDA which
addresses the complexity of forecasting the weather for a 4-D UAS
flight route is under development. The TDA will use rules-based
and physics-based prediction methods for the generation of atmospheric
effects. It will combine 2-D, 3-D and 4-D visualizations and data
presentations to fuse available and subsequent updates of spatial and
temporal forecast information for tailored prediction of weather
impacts on the UAS. The TDA will also include technology to
optimize the planned flight route taking into account all aspects of
the flight mission profile. The TDA will employ intelligent agents to
automate routine tasks involved in product generation and will update
the weather database for creating these products with Nowcast data
(0-3hr forecasts) when available. The TDA technology under
development will be suitable for military and civilian UAS uses, to
include UAS flights patrolling the continental and coastal borders of
the Unites States.
Interactive Weather Visualization Tools For The U.S. Armed
Forces. R Bruce Telfeyan, HQ Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt
AFB, NE, and Major Daniel M. Rozema, USAF, HQ Air Force Weather Agency.
The Air Force Weather Agency’s (AFWA’s)
GrADS-based interactive visualization tool, (called IGrADS, for
Interactive GrADS), enables forecasters to pick a wide variety of
forecast products tailored to the needs of their customers. IGrADS is
available over the AFWA s webpage, JAAWIN (https://weather.afwa.af.mil)
and has been operational since early 2002. It is also available
over the SIPRNET and JWICS. The interface enables forecasters to
create (potentially) many hundreds of millions of varieties of
visualized or alphanumeric products designed to meet their
customers needs. These products range from meteograms,
user-defined meteograms, forecast skew-Ts, vertical cross-sections,
forecast maps (including four-panel variations), worldwide cloud
analyses, and eight different types of alphanumeric meteorological
output. Forecasters have the option of choosing from among eight
operational numerical forecast models, two of which are global and six
regional mesoscale models. The most extensive product lines are
available for AFWA s MM5. This will be supplanted with Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model once it is declared
operational. IGrADS users can choose any display region they
desire, can animate forecast data, and can bookmark frequently needed
charts, then recall them with current model data whenever
required. The presentation highlights recent expansions of IGrADS
capabilities in response to customer requests, including four-panel
chart options, ceiling/visibility charts, and isotachs on vertical
cross-section charts. Additionally, AFWA recently pioneered a new
Java-based interactive visualization tool called the Weather
Interactive Data Display System (WIDDS), allowing forecasters to
interact with terrestrial weather data and tailor visualizations to fit
the their. WIDDS was borne out of the warfighter’s desire to have
interactive display of both weather observations (METARS, SPECIs and
Synoptics) and
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts for the
entire world. The application can also display data specific to
aviation interests, including AIREPS and PIREPS. The WIDDS
interface enables forecasters to not only zoom into an area of interest
but also to select parameters such as data density, data fields (such
as altimeter, ceiling, visibility, cloud amounts, and others for
METARS) and various METWATCH controls to meet specific warfighter needs.
Weather Theory for Pilots. Terry T. Lankford, FAA (retired), Murphys, CA
General aviation weather-related accidents
remain at almost the same level as they have for decades. This in spite
of the advances in weather reporting and forecasting that have occurred
over the same period. Both government and industry continue to
recommend improved weather education for pilots, dispatchers, and
controllers. However, little has filtered down to the operational level.
The NWA Aviation Weather Committee has
been working on this issue for several years. Our focus addresses the
problem of relating "theory" to the "real world." To this end we have
develop an interactive training program: Weather Theory for
Pilots. Last year we provided a "Status Report" on our progress.
Since then we have accomplished an Association review. We are
continuing to update the program based on Association and user comments
and recommendations. With our goal of publishing the program "nation
wide" now in sight, this presentation will provide an update on the
project and our vision for future development.
Session: Severe Weather II
A Review of Significant Weather Events Occurring in 2006. Invited
Speaker: Greg Carbin, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK.
This presentation will provide an overview of
hazardous weather episodes significantly impacting life and property
within the United States during 2006. Selected events will be
presented in chronological order and described with photos, maps, and
loops of satellite and radar data. While many of the events
selected for this talk captured the attention of both the media and the
public, some of these meteorological memories faded away with
time. This review will highlight some of the “big stories”, as
well as smaller short-term events. Included in the presentation
will be a major snowstorm, significant severe weather in the Midwest
and South, and wildfires on the Plains. Along with a
meteorological description, an impact summary will also be provided for
each of the selected events.
Given the national scope and varied
responsibilities of the Storm Prediction Center, weather events of
significant impact, ranging from severe thunderstorm and tornado
outbreaks to wildfires and winter storms, are forecast and analyzed
regularly. This provides SPC forecasters with a unique opportunity to
interpret data related to extreme weather conditions regardless of
location over the United States. This uniquely diversified experience,
and the availability of high-resolution archived datasets, provide for
the development of this type of presentation.
Regional Variations in Sounding Derived Significant Severe Weather
Parameters. Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA/NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan WI.
A great deal of progress has been made in
identifying that significant tornadoes are usually associated with
strong vertical wind shear and relatively low cloud bases. Deep
layer vertical wind shear, low level vertical wind shear, and Lifted
Condensation Level (LCL) heights have been well correlated with an
increased risk of strong tornadoes.
Initial studies have looked at datasets from
across the lower United States and throughout the year. The
current study attempts to describe regional and perhaps seasonal
variations in instability, vertical wind shear, and convective cloud
bases to refine some of the thresholds established from national
studies of sounding derived parameters.
The core focus of the data analysis was to
attempt to distinguish between environments that produced very severe
wind gusts and/or very large hail but not strong or violent
tornadoes. Preliminary results suggest that only subtle
differences exist in these environments.
Sounding Analog Retrieval System (SARS). Ryan Jewell, NOAA/NWS Storm
Prediction Center, Norman, OK.
SARS is a sounding analog matching system that
compares a sounding to a database of historical severe weather
proximity soundings. Based on several key parameters, the system
returns matches with their date, location, and associated severe
weather report. The matches come from a combined database of nearly
2000 proximity soundings for severe hail, supercells, and tornadoes.
The matching parameters are based heavily on components of the SPC
Significant Tornado and Significant Hail Parameters, but also
incorporate additional fields. Parameters used include most unstable
and mixed layer CAPE, mixing ratio of most unstable parcel, 0-3 km,0-6
km, and 0-9 km shear, 0-1 km SRH, LCL height using mixed layer parcel,
700-500 mb lapse rate, and 500 mb temperature.
In addition to providing the forecaster with
historical sounding matches, SARS has been calibrated to produce
probabilistic forecast output based on the number and types of analog
matches. While this portion of SARS research is in its initial stages,
preliminary results suggest that based on the distribution of matches,
a skillful forecast can be obtained, such as whether or not hail will
be extremely large, or whether supercells will be tornadic or
non-tornadic.
SARS is being tested at the SPC using observed
and model forecast soundings within an experimental version of the
NSHARP sounding analysis system, and using model grid point output from
the NAM, NAMKF, and RUC to provide CONUS displays of regions where
sounding analogs are available. Of course, when model data are
used as input, the ability of analog systems such as SARS to provide
useful forecast information is largely dependent on the model forecast
accuracy. Thus, if a model does not predict key matching fields
such as CAPE correctly, appropriate analogs may not be found.
Examples will be shown to illustrate forecast applications using
observed and model data.
Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize
Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East-Central Florida. Winifred
Lambert, ENSCO, Inc., David Short, ENSCO, Inc, Matthew Volkmer, NWS
Melbourne, FL, David Sharp, NWS Melbourne, FL, and Scott Spratt, NWS
Melbourne, FL.
Each morning, the forecasters at the National
Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental
cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county
warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site
(http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml). Given the
hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially
during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users
factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their
daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to
Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of
lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day
in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more
threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of
relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the
position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast
propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected
evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can
influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA.
The lightning threat index maps are issued for
the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid
resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the
AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS
platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each
map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the
forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit
(AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be
used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps.
The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency
of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is
to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus
on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the
end-users of the product.
Several studies took place at the Florida
State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created
daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG
strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The
soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA),
Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the
strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network
(NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every
hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989 2004. The
grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and
adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS
TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed
by the AMU.
The CG strike density grids were first stratified by flow regime and
then by time in 6- and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km
x 2.5 km resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for
each flow regime by counting the number of days on which lightning
occurred in each grid box and dividing that number by the total number
of days in the flow regime. Two types of CG strike density
climatologies were calculated: flow regime and conditional. In both
cases, the strike density values were first summed in each grid box
over all days in a flow regime. The flow regime climatology was
calculated by dividing the summed densities by the number of days in
the flow regime. This can be interpreted as the average number of
strikes in each grid box per flow regime day. The conditional
climatology was calculated by dividing the summed densities by the
number of lightning days in a flow regime. It is called a conditional
climatology because it is conditional on the occurrence of lightning.
It can be interpreted as the average number of lightning strikes per
lightning day during a flow regime. The NWS MLB forecasters use the
frequency climatology values as proxy inputs for lightning probability,
and the density climatology values as proxy inputs for CG amount when
creating the daily lightning threat index map.
Based on a request from NWS MLB forecasters, the AMU conducted work on
a second phase to create composite, or average, soundings for each flow
regime using the morning soundings at MIA, TBW, JAX and Cape Canaveral
Air Force Station (XMR). The forecasters compare the current and
forecast soundings to the composite soundings, allowing them to refine
the lightning threat based on the differences between the
climatological and current/forecast soundings. The observed and
forecast sounding stability parameters are also compared to those of
the composite soundings for each regime to assist the forecaster in
making adjustments to the lightning threat.
This presentation will describe the lightning
threat index map, show examples of the climatological CG lightning
densities and frequencies of occurrence based on flow regime and
discuss how they were created, and show examples of the composite
soundings for each flow regime.
Exploring a new Approach to Improving Severe Weather Warning Lead Times
using GFE. Andy Roche, NOAA/NWS WFO Charleston, WV.
Several dynamic and thermodynamic parameters
describing the state of the atmosphere conducive to the formation of
severe thunderstorms are available from observations and numerical
prediction sources. Other composite parameters have been
developed and refined at the Severe Prediction Center (SPC) to aid in
forecasting areas favorable for significant severe thunderstorm
development. These parameters assist in the diagnosis of the
environment in which severe thunderstorms develop and occur.
However, putting a better method of predicting the precise timing and
location of deep convection in the hands of the forecaster is needed to
facilitate a next generation warning service which improves severe
warning lead times by double or more from current levels. This
presentation will explore a technique developed at WFO (Weather Service
Office) Charleston, West Virginia for the forecasting of areas of
severe thunderstorm development using GFE (Graphical Forecast Editor).
The formation of severe thunderstorms depends
on the interaction of lift, shear, instability and available
moisture. The combination of these conditions has an important
effect on the convective updraft strength. The convective
available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and mid
level lapse rates are directly related to updraft strength, and have
been widely used as diagnostic quantities for assessing severe
thunderstorm potential. Boundary layer (BL) convergence has also
been found to be highly effective in highlighting mesoscale boundaries
often acting as convective initiation triggers. Other parameters
like deep shear, storm relative helicity (SRH), and precipitable water
(PW) are known to enhance or suppress convective initiation.
The availability of higher resolution model
output has made the forecasting of these parameters in realtime
possible. The new approach using GFE focuses on those parameters
that provide detailed information about the most favorable location for
development each hour in the short term forecast period. The
technique enables the forecaster to analyze these factors collectively
and detect areas more favorable for severe convection in a more
accurate time and spatial resolution. From this, it is expected
that severe thunderstorm development can be forecast.
A Python-coded Smarttool in GFE has been
developed to calculate and relate the selected parameters. Common
areas where CAPE, BL convergence, and lapse rate coincide are
highlighted as severe threat areas. These threat areas can be
enhanced by exceeding thresholds of deep shear or SRH, or suppressed by
certain thresholds of CIN and PW fields. This Smarttool allows
the forecaster to select which layer of BL convergence and mid level
lapse rate they consider to be more representative to a particular
weather situation. In addition, the user can select which model
they believe to be best suited to a particular weather situation.
Using the tool, an hourly forecast severe hazard grid can be created
narrowing down the locations where the atmosphere is forecast to be
best suited to support the development of severe convection. It
is anticipated that by combining this with the observed development and
movement of storms on radar, situational awareness will be improved
resulting in longer warning lead times in some situations.
Effects of Cell Mergers into the Inflow Flank of Supercells on
Tornadogenesis. Mark R. Jarvis and Theodore W. Funk, NOAA/NWS
Louisville, KY
It is well known that classic, discrete
supercell thunderstorms produce an inordinate amount of severe weather,
including large hail, straight-line winds, and weak-to-violent
tornadoes. However, the majority of storms actually are non-tornadic.
Therefore, much research over the years has been dedicated to
differentiating tornadic from non-tornadic supercells and determining
processes associated with low-level tornadogenesis. Such research
includes near-storm environmental characteristics (e.g., LCL height,
low-level humidity, 0-1 km shear and helicity, mid-level storm-relative
winds, etc.), quality of the rear flank downdraft, persistence of the
mid-level mesocyclone, and effects of storms propagating along
pre-existing or storm-induced boundaries. Determining when
supercells will become tornadic remains a distinct challenge for NWS
forecasters responsible for protecting life and property.
Recently, forecasters at WFO Louisville (LMK) have
observed a key Doppler radar signature across the Ohio Valley which may
prove helpful in this challenge. In a number of cases, individual cells
propagating quickly east or northeastward merged into the inflow
(usually southern) flank of well-established, but non-tornadic
supercells. In many cases, the merger caused rapid storm strengthening
and low-level tornadogenesis within 1-3 volume scans after the merger.
The merger apparently provides the necessary enhanced low-level
moisture convergence, boundary interaction, and vertical stretching
into the storm s mid-level mesocyclone to initiate the tornado.
Documented literature on this type of isolated cell-supercell merger
process and its effects on tornadogenesis appear to be somewhat
limited.
WFO LMK forecasters have incorporated this
observation into its storm interrogation methods to help improve
tornado warning decisions for supercells, and potentially increase lead
time while reducing false alarms. This presentation will show various
animated radar examples of the merger process and subsequent storm
evolution. Causes for tornadogenesis also will be mentioned. It is
hoped that this presentation will share valuable information and
augment the warning decision process for all meteorologists.
Hurricane Rita Tornado Outbreak. Dan Byrd, and Greg Garrett, NOAA/NWS
Jackson MS.
Hurricane Rita made landfall between Sabine
Pass, Texas and Johnson s Bayou Louisiana at 02:38 CDT on September 24,
2005. Rita made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane but at one time was
a Category 5 over the Gulf of Mexico and was the 3rd strongest
hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin with a pressure of 897
and winds of 175 mph. The highest observed peak wind at landfall was
116 mph in Port Arthur TX. The system slowly moved north over
Louisiana as a Tropical storm and then moved east over southern
Arkansas into northwest Mississippi as a tropical low.
Severe weather was spawned from the outer
edges of Rita over the Jackson Mississippi County Warning Area (CWA)
and lasted about 36 hours from Saturday into Sunday evening. There were
a total of 55 tornadoes in the Jackson CWA over the two day period from
the 24th to the 25th of September. The tornadoes included one F3, seven
F2 s, 13 F1 s and 24 F0 s. The F-3 Tornado touched down near Clayton
Louisiana and tracked northeast for 14 miles to 6 miles north of
Waterproof. The tornado destroyed a church and two homes and one of the
homes 2nd floor was torn off and deposited about one-quarter mile down
the road. There was also several other homes and cars damaged or
destroyed. There was one fatality in Humphrey’s county and 16 injuries
CWA wide. I will discuss the low cape, high shear environment as the
storm progressed east and the reasoning behind the number of tornadoes,
why the tornadoes persisted during the nighttime hours Saturday night,
and how this event was the largest outbreak ever in our CWA and how it
stacks up historically.
A Radar Perspective of the Early
Morning 6
November 2005 Tornadoes: Challenges.
Patrick J. Spoden, NOAA/NWS Paducah, KY, Ron Przybylinski, NOAA/NWS St.
Louis, MO, Christine Wielgos and Rick Shanklin, NOAA/NWS Paducah
In the early morning hours of 6 November 2005,
two tornadoes, which caused F3 damage, touched down within minutes of
each other in western Kentucky. One tornadic supercell known as the
Evansville tornadic storm, moved into southwest Indiana, through the
southern end of the city of Evansville, and produced a tornado that
resulted in a 41-mile continuous damage path. A second tornadic
supercell located 40 miles to the south produced a tornado that
resulted in an 11-mile long damage swath.
The storms which produced the tornadoes were
sampled by up to four Doppler radars, yet due to storm speed, tilt, and
other sampling issues, the true location of the mesocyclones associated
with the tornadoes was not always clear to the radar operators.
One challenge of the Evansville tornadic
supercell was the difference in mesocyclone location depending upon
which radar was being used. Transitioning from the KPAH WSR-88D to the
KVWX Doppler Radar allowed for the determination of a more exact
location of the mesocyclone.
The southern tornadic supercell moved
essentially parallel to the radar beam from the KPAH WSR-88D which
indicated a low-level gate-to-gate shear value of approximately 50 kts.
At the same time, this supercell was moving generally perpendicular to
the radar beams from the KHPX WSR-88D and indicated a low-level
gate-to-gate shear close to 100 kts. Warning forecasters need to be
aware that such striking differences in magnitudes between the two
WSR-88Ds can occur and affect the decision making process compared to
utilizing radar data from only one site.
This presentation will review the radar data
to emphasize importance of these sampling issues and their impact on
warning operations and procedures and upon the training program at the
NWS Forecast Office in Paducah, Kentucky.
Analysis of the Tornado Damage Track from the 6 November 2005
Evansville Indiana Tornado: Observations and Perspectives. Ron W.
Przybylinski, NOAA/NWS St. Louis, MO, Ricky Shanklin, Pat Spoden,
and Christine Wielgos, NOAA/NWS Paducah, KY
An analysis of the tornado damage assessment
from the November 2005 Evansville Indiana Tornado is reviewed and
presented. The tornado initially touchdown in northwest Kentucky,
two miles north of Smith Mills and traveled across the Ohio River three
times southwest and south of Evansville. The tornado then rapidly
traveled east-northeast and caused significant damage at the Eastbrook
Mobile Home Park, extreme southeast side of Evansville, where twenty
fatalities occurred. From this point, the tornado traveled northeast
and caused significant home damage to several subdivisions northwest
and north of Newburgh Indiana. The tornado damage width varied from 300
to 500 yards. The sub-divisions were located on rolling terrain. An
industrial park located on an elevated region, 2.5 miles northeast of
the subdivision and 4 miles northeast of Newburgh was directly
hit by the tornado. Several steel-framed structures within the
industrial park were severely damaged or destroyed. Steel fence posts
just east of several damaged structures showed a well defined
convergent damage pattern while several I-beams were twisted within
some of the structures. The tornado continued northeast damaging
several farmsteads and rural homes south and east of the community of
Booneville Indiana. Four fatalities and several injuries occurred over
this region of Indiana. The tornadic damage path was continuous and
showed an estimated overall length of 41 miles. Six smaller areas or
segments embedded within the overall path reached F3 damage intensity.
Multiple vortex damage patterns were also uncovered at three locations
along the path of the tornado while damage paths of three satellite
tornadoes were documented. This was one of the most damaging early cool
season tornado events in Indiana-Kentucky history. This presentation
will focus on damage assessment conducted during the days after the
Evansville tornado event. We will focus on some of the hardest
hit areas along the damage path and show indicators suggesting F3
damage.
A Case Study of the April 2, 2006 Killer Mid-South Tornado Outbreak.
Jonathan L. Howell and Jason F. Beaman, NOAA/NWS Memphis, TN
On the evening of April 2, 2006, an outbreak
of tornadoes occurred over the NWS Memphis County Warning Area.
In total, five tornadoes produced F3 intensity damage, one tornado
produced F2 intensity damage, and two tornadoes produced F1 intensity
damage. Three of the F3 rated tornadoes resulted in the deaths of
24 persons across three counties (Pemiscot County, MO, Dyer County, TN,
and Gibson County, TN) along with hundreds of injuries. The 22
tornado related deaths in northwest Tennessee is the highest number of
fatalities in western Tennessee since 1952.
This case study will offer a thorough analysis
of the synoptic and mesoscale conditions that produced this classic
severe weather outbreak. There were three tornadic supercell
thunderstorms that impacted the Mid-South. The first supercell
thunderstorm affected northern portions of the region and was
responsible for all of the fatalities. This storm was a classic
long-tracked cyclical supercell, which produced 4 of the 8 tornadoes as
it tracked 280 km across the NWS Memphis County Warning Area. The
second supercell thunderstorm of the day developed along a mesoscale
boundary that was left in the wake of the first supercell
thunderstorm. This supercell thunderstorm was a classic right
moving storm and produced the second tornado that resulted in F3
intensity damage across Gibson County TN. The third supercell
thunderstorm of particular interest occurred in Cross County, AR.
This storm produced another strong tornado that tracked along the
southern portions of Cross County and resulted in additional F3
intensity damage. The storm then weakened as it moved east into
adjacent Crittenden County. The Cross-Crittenden Counties
supercell thunderstorm was not as long lived as the first supercell
storm. However, the storm did move along an old convective
outflow boundary during the time of tornadogenesis.
In addition to the meteorological analysis,
this presentation will highlight some of the sociological factors that
may have contributed to such a high death toll, as well as some of the
lessons learned from this event. Possible solutions will be
offered in the hope of mitigating such fatalities in future strong and
violent tornadoes.
The Great Lakes Cyclone Windstorm of November 12-13, 2003: A
Synoptic-Dynamic Case Study. John A. Knox, University of Georgia.
On November 12-13, 2003, a strengthening
mid-latitude cyclone crossed the upper Midwest from Minnesota to the
lower Great Lakes. High winds with gusts up to 76 knots caused
over $20 million in damage, two deaths, and six injuries from Iowa to
Michigan. In northern lower Michigan, the windstorm was said to
have been the worst in several decades.
Storm event summaries from the National
Weather Service offices across the Great Lakes region attributed this
hazardous wind event to a variety of causes: a cold frontal passage, a
tight pressure gradient, strong cold air advection, a strong high
moving in behind a strong low, and a deep tropopause fold. For
operational forecasting purposes, it is desirable to have a deeper and
more consistent understanding of the dynamics behind such events.
In this case study we investigate the origin
of the damaging winds, emphasizing the possibility that the high winds
were related to the stratospheric intrusion and tropopause fold
associated with the deepening cyclone. We examine the development
of this cyclone across the upper Midwest using a variety of
meteorological data, including an improved high-resolution hourly total
column ozone product from the GOES Sounder. We will attempt to
use this and other remote sensing products to diagnose the mesoscale
dynamics of the tropopause fold and correlate its evolution in space
and time with the development of strong surface winds. Time
permitting, we will also discuss possible linkages between the dynamics
of this storm and the famous "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm in November
1975.
A Case Study of the April 18th, 2006 Supercell in Livingston County,
Missouri. Jose Miranda, University of Missouri-Columbia, and George
Limpert, University of Missouri-Columbia.
During the afternoon of April 18, 2006,
several supercells developed over Northwest Missouri including two
which produced tornadoes. The setup featured weak dynamics and moderate
thermodynamics but was not a classic setup for development of
supercells. Merging of surface boundaries enhanced forcing
allowing convection to break through the cap and develop. Further
interaction with surface boundaries along with merging of cells
enhanced rotation and contributed to the tornadic nature of the
supercells. Forecasts
based on RUC model output verified quite well both
in radar imagery and visually at the surface, and indicated a
heightened tornado potential over Northwest Missouri. Despite
well-defined supercell structures observed on the ground and by radar
along with detection of strong rotation by doppler radar, only one
tornado warning was issued for the cells. The lone warning was based on
a spotter report of a funnel cloud shortly before a tornado struck the
western side of Chillicothe, MO.
An Overview of the 12-13 March 2006 Severe Weather Outbreak Over the
Southwest Missouri Ozarks. John P. Gagan, NWS WFO Springfield, MO, and
Gino Izzi, NWS Springfield, MO.
During the evening hours of 12 March and early
morning hours of 13 March 2006, four supercell thunderstorms and a
squall line of thunderstorms swept across the Southwest Missouri
Ozarks.
Thirteen tornadoes occurred (three F0s, four
F1s, three F2s and three F3s) which destroyed 202 homes, damaged 366
additional structures, and resulted in two fatalities and thirty-five
injuries. In addition, there were
over one hundred additional reports of large hail (up to baseball size)
and wind damage. This was the largest outbreak of severe weather
in the area since the 4 May 2003 severe weather outbreak. This
presentation will offer an overview of the atmospheric conditions that
contributed to this significant severe weather episode.
