Using COMET Modules as Educational
and Continuing Education
Opportunities. Elizabeth Page, UCAR/COMET, Greensboro, NC.
No abstract available.
Watershed Education for Weather
Broadcasters. Matthew Kelsch,
UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO.
Weather broadcasters are front-line
communicators for helping the public understand not only the weather,
but also related weather impacts. Weather has an impact on the
environment in which we live, and an integral part of that environment
are watersheds. When it comes to the protection of the
environment, an informed and educated public is essential. This
paper describes an effort that is the result of a partnership between
the National Environmental Education and Training Foundation (NEETF)
and the COMET Program. NEETF and COMET have developed a Broadcast
Meteorology Website and a corresponding two-hour short course titled,
“Watersheds: Connecting Weather to the Environment.”
The Broadcast Meteorologist Community Website
provides access to relevant online educational resources from the COMET
Program and other sources. The online watersheds course provides
the broadcast meteorologist with education on what a watershed is, the
characteristics of watershed systems, water sources and water quality
within a watershed and watershed system, and finally, how weather
events relate to the environmental health of a watershed and the
actions that the public can take to protect watershed health.
The watersheds course compliments an on-going
effort by NEETF, called Earth Gauge, which is a program that currently
provides environmental tips appropriate to the three-day forecast for
53 television markets reaching 130 million viewers. These tips are
written and designed to allow weather broadcasters to integrate them
into their on-air weather reports. In a like fashion, the
watersheds course has been designed to achieve two major goals: 1.) To
convey scientifically sound information about watersheds and the
relationship of weather to watershed health, and 2.) To do so in a way
that models how such information may be communicated effectively to the
public. Another goal of the project was to design the materials
in a way that broadcast meteorologists could readily borrow content
from the course to use either on their station web sites or on the
air. This presentation will discuss design features of the course
and demonstrate elements of it.
The Functionality of a New Radar
Software Package: GRLevel2 Analyst
Edition. Ted Keller, KOLR/KSFX-TV, Springfield, MO
A new software application is now
available to
interpret National Weather Service 88D Level II radar data in real
time. GRLevel2 Analyst Edition (GR2AE) features a high quality
volumetric display which allows you to interpret radar data in four
dimensions. Several high resolution reflectivity-derived graphical
products in addition to the standard Level II base data.
GR2AE derives five 2D products from the Level
II volume reflectivity: echo tops, vertically integrated liquid (VIL),
VIL density (VILD), probability of severe hail (POSH) and maximum
expected hail size (MEHS). The user can also manually input storm
motion vectors or use on-screen markers to estimate storm motion.
Through the use of shapefiles and placefiles, users can display a wide
variety of geographic and meteorological parameters and data.
This presentation will: 1) review GR2AE's
features, 2) explore the use of GR2AE using real data and 3) discuss
the usefulness of 3D rendering in identifying storm structure. It
will also explore how GR2AE can help television meteorologists make
more informed decisions during severe weather episodes especially with
regard to live cut-ins. The idea of displaying GR2AE data
on-air during such cut-ins will also be explored.
The First Operational Polarimetric Doppler Radar for Television
Use. James-Paul Dice, WHNT-TV, Huntsville, AL.
WHNT-TV and the University of
Alabama in
Huntsville (UAH) jointly developed the first operational polarimetric
Doppler radar for broadcast television. The system went on-line
November, 2003. The system combines a 350kW transmitter with a
Sigmet RVP-8 processor and RCP-8 antenna controller. The radar is
called ARMOR (Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational
Research).
ARMOR offers broadcast meteorologists the
advanced capabilities including hydrometeor identification and rainfall
mapping. Since 2004, meteorologists at WHNT-TV have been using
the radar to distinguish between rain and hail as well as detecting
rain/snow lines during Winter weather events. The radar operates
both in a single elevation surveillance scan as well as a volume scan
depending on the weather event.
Polarimetric Doppler is the next step in
weather radar technology. The National Weather Service NEXRAD
network is scheduled for an upgrade to polarimetric technology within
the next five years. WHNT is jointly developing value-added
radar products with Huntsville-based Baron Services as well as UAH for
the benefit of public safety.
This presentation outlines the history and
technology of the ARMOR radar system as well as its verification during
several severe weather events.
Performance of New Tornado
Detection Algorithms: The 18 August 2005
Stoughton, Wisconsin Tornado. Mike Beles, Weather Central, Inc.
This case study will examine the performance of new tornado
detection
algorithms during the 18 August 2005 Stoughton, Wisconsin F3 tornado.
The data is displayed in the ESP:LIVE storm-tracking system from
Weather Central, Inc. (WCI) of Madison, Wis., and the algorithms were
created by Weather Decisions Technologies (WDT) of Norman, Okla.. New
parameters from these algorithms showed a readily apparent increase in
the intensity of the rotation with this well-defined supercell.
Advanced warning of the severity of the storm was possible due to
analysis of new parameters such as the MesoCyclone Strength Index. In
addition, variables such as mesocyclone base and depth are also
examined to determine the 3D characteristics of the storm and how they
evolved over time.
Cyclone Saturday: A Review
of the Teamwork and Technology during the 12
November 2005 Iowa Tornadoes. John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des
Moines, IA and Daryl Herzmann, Iowa State University, Ames, IA.
On 12 November 2005, a series of late season supercell storms
moved
across Central Iowa, striking three communities. Due to a
combination of timely NWS warnings, live webcam/stormchaser video and
continuous media broadcasts, few injuries and only one death
occured. The event was also unique in that a NCAA college
football game with 50,000 fans in Ames, Iowa was about to begin when a
tornado passed within three miles of the stadium.
The Use of Mesoscale
Analysis. Daniel McCarthy, NOAA/NWS
Storm Prediction Center. Norman, Ok.
No abstract available.
Introduction to Weather Radar
Interpretation: Some Useful Insights for
the TV Meteorologist. Richard Kane, NOAA/NWS Pittsburgh, PA.
Various aspects of weather radar usage and interpretation are
presented
which should be useful for TV meteorologists. Some of the radar
characteristics and features addressed include such things as, basic
radar principles, Volume Coverage Patterns (VCPs), radar
limitations, hail contamination and bright banding with respect to
estimated radar rainfall, hail flares, tornadic versus downburst
signatures, anomalous propagation (AP) and the differences in radar
reflectivity and associated rainfall between tropical and mid-latitude
precipitation echoes.
Walk In My Shoes: Unique
Simulation Efforts at the 2006 National Severe
Weather Workshop. Elizabeth Quoetone, NOAA/NWS/WDTB Norman, OK.
Daphne LaDue and Paul Schlatter, University of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman,
OK, John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA and Dave Freeman, KSNW-TV,
Wichita, KS.
During severe weather operations, the
effectiveness of the partnerships between the broadcast media, the NWS,
and local emergency managers can have a big impact on how well severe
weather information is conveyed to, and received from, the
public. Having a prior understanding of the challenges unique to
each of these groups can greatly affect the quality of communications
between these groups during the actual event.
With this in mind, a unique simulation was
developed for participants in the 2006 National Severe Weather Workshop
held in Oklahoma in March 2006. The primary goal of this simulation was
to allow participants to develop an understanding of the duties their
partners perform during severe weather, while developing a sense of the
challenges that are faced by each group. Participants were divided into
three groups such that no participant did their regular job. As a
result, the participants had to take off their own cape of expertise
and experience, and step into the uncomfortable position of doing the
job their partners normally do. The intent was for the participants to
not only build empathy for their counterparts, but to eventually impact
real time events by incorporating the knowledge gained in this
experience into future operations.
The five-hour simulation, split between two days, was set up in three
different rooms, one for each group, with each room having simultaneous
feeds of displaced real-time data. The rooms represented the NWS (Storm
Prediction Center and Weather Forecast Office), the Media, and
Emergency Management. In the NWS room, the SPC group analyzed data and
discussed the societal constraints relative to issuing severe weather
outlooks and watches. After a watch was issued, participants switched
to the WFO role focusing on real-time radar data analysis in a
time-pressured environment. Threats were conveyed via warnings
and statements that were then transmitted to the other two rooms. In
the Emergency Operations Center, the group digested the information
from a multitude of sources and provided real-time spotter reports, in
addition to making decisions directly impacting the sounding of sirens
and the safety of citizens. The Media Room dealt with decisions
regarding expected weather and the possible impacts on programming. For
participants broadcasting live to the other two rooms, the need to
provide a constant flow of information during wall-to-wall coverage was
one of the most challenging aspects.
This presentation will discuss the process of
developing and conducting the simulation which required synchronous
displaced real-time weather data in three different physical locations
using three different platforms. The challenges each group faced in
their decision making as they tried to do their job in a context that
was time-pressured, complex, and ambiguous will also be
discussed. This context included the presence of live TV
broadcasts and interactive Ham radio feeds. Feedback from both
simulation organizers and participants will be presented.
A Public-Private Partnership to Saturate Two Television Markets with
NOAA Weather Radio. Wayne Hart, WEHT-TV, Evansville, IN, John
McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA, Rick Shanklin, NOAA/NWS Paducah,
KY and Jeff Johnson, NOAA/NWS Des Moines, IA.
During the month of November 2005
several
deadly tornadoes moved across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley.
These tornadoes caused millions in property damage and loss of life in
the Evansville, Indiana and Des Moines, Iowa television markets.
Stations WEHT-TV in Evansville and
KCCI-TV in Des Moines joined with a manufacturer of digital Specific
Area Message Encoded (S.A.M.E.) NOAA weather radios and major grocery
store chains to make weather radios available at near wholesale cost.
The result has been that nearly 100,000 weather radios are now in the
hands of television viewers in these markets.
The stations also worked with the Paducah,
Kentucky and Des Moines, Iowa National Weather Service offices to
assist the public with programming weather radios by hosting special
"programming days" several times during the spring. Many thousands of
radios were programmed during these highly publicized events.
Video clips from the public outreach events
and television promotions from each station's campaign will help to
illustrate the overwhelming public response. This will also allow for
an opportunity for audience discussion about the learning curve that
took place during the first six weeks of these sister campaigns.
From Watching to Watching Out: Public Reaction to Severe Weather
Information. Jim Rasor & Samantha Davies, WSIL-TV, Carterville, IL
The Ohio River Valley area of Southern
Illinois is the home market of the Great Tri-State Tornado of
1925. More recently, the area is home of the 1982 Marion tornado
which claimed 10 lives. Despite the history of violent tornadoes,
the viewing public has cycled through extreme reactions to severe
weather threats and warnings. Jim Rasor has worked in this region
as Chief Meteorologist for WSIL TV since 1987 and has observed these
changing attitudes. These changes have lead to adaptations of
coverage practices and delivery methods. Many of the changes,
including an annual severe weather seminar for the public, have been
cooperative events involving the local NWS office in Paducah, KY.
The 1982 fatal tornado event was followed by
20 years of relative quiet tornado activity and no fatalities. In
2002 that changed and every year since, significant tornado events have
occurred and the viewing public has changed its expectations regarding
severe weather information delivery. This presentation will offer
descriptions of the events using video and photographs for
perspective. The discussion will offer examples of information
delivery, including a system used at WSIL to fill a gap between watches
and warnings and provide lead time for viewers that need more time to
find cover from violent storms. Technology is providing better
tools for communicating severe weather information. Meteorologist
Samantha Davies will discuss how WSIL uses internet instant messaging
to swap reports with the NWS and provides custom closed captioning for
the hearing impaired directly from the WSIL weather desk.
FLASH: Strengthening Homes and
Safeguarding Families through
Partnerships. Leslie Chapman-Henderson, President/CEO of Federal
Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH, Inc.), Tallahassee, FL.
The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes,
Inc. -
FLASH® was founded as a public awareness campaign in 1998 to
educate citizens about disaster safety and promote safer, better-built
homes in post-Hurricane Andrew Florida. With the help of its
founding partners, including federal and state agencies, other
nonprofits, and financial and insurance businesses, FLASH helped create
a widespread demand for stronger, safer homes. When the initial
success of the campaign revealed FLASH’s potential for long-term
beneficial impact, FLASH was expanded into a nonprofit, 501(c)(3)
organization that offers free disaster safety and mitigation resources
nationwide.
Today FLASH is committed to strengthening
homes, safeguarding families, and protecting economic well-being by
promoting disaster preparedness and mitigation. FLASH’s list of
partners continues to grow and now includes more than 75 public,
private and nonprofit organizations such as the National Weather
Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Florida Department of
Community Affairs, Institute for Business and Home Safety, , State Farm
Insurance Companies, Allstate Insurance Company, Nationwide, USAA, The
Home Depot, and Salvation Army.
Every day FLASH plays a crucial role in
reaching people across the U.S. with free innovative, award-winning
programs on loss prevention and home safety including: public service
campaigns, such as Turn Around, Don’t DrownTM; national television
programs with Bob Vila and PBS; a popular educational website at
www.flash.org; Blueprint for Safety; and printed resources such as
FLASH Cards and a One-Stop Hurricane Resource Guide.
Leslie Chapman-Henderson will present
creative resources, which can help broadcasters understand and
communicate disaster safety information to their audiences.
SHARK-BAIT: How to Avoid Major
Mistakes in Employment Contract
Negotiations. Avery Friedman, Friedman Associates, Cleveland, OH.
No abstract available.
Storm-based Warnings:
Changes to NWS Warnings for the Digital
Age. John Ferree, NOAA/NWS/Severe Storm Service Leader, Norman, OK and
Dave Freeman, Chief Meteorologist, KSNW-TV, Wichita, KS.
For about a year, a team of NWS
employees has
been looking at issuing warnings (Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and
Flash Flood) on storms rather than on a county basis. Polygons
outlining the expected area of greatest risk of storm impact are
currently listed as a set of latitude and longitude points at the
bottom of these warnings. The proposal is to make the “polygon”
the official warning. A demonstration project last year, and
other supporting calculations indicate that the area under warnings may
be reduced by as much as 70%. This benefits the public by fewer
people being advised to take cover. Dan Sutter, an economist at
the University of Oklahoma, estimated that this would save the public
over 100 billion dollars. Several new technologies, including
mobile display systems using GIS, Digital EAS, and Reverse 911 cell
phone technology are supported by these “Storm-Based” warnings.
To this point, there has been broad support for these “Storm-Based”
warnings in our discussion with emergency managers, major retailers,
private meteorologists, and broadcast meteorologists.
NWA Seal Recertification
Update. Bryan Karrick, NWA Seal of Approval
Recertification Chair and Mike Goldberg, Broadcast Meteorology
Committee Chair
No abstract available.
Keynote Addresses
No abstracts available for the keynote addresses.
Session: Customer Service
The Nation's Weather Enterprise:
Short Course on the Public/Private
Partnership.
John Toohey-Morales, representing the National Council of Industrial
Meteorologists (NCIM)
The United States receives its weather
information from a three-sector "weather enterprise" system composed of
government, private sector, and academia. In a groundbreaking
collaboration, the National Council of Industrial Meteorologists
partnered with NOAA to conduct a live course on June 1st at Howard
University in Washington. Currently a distance learning module is being
produced. This course aims to train professionals in both the private
sector and government on how they can work together more effectively to
advance the weather enterprise as a whole, with a focus on the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the diverse private
sector companies that work together to deliver weather and
climate-related products and services. Participants will learn not only
the basics relevant to government institutions and private enterprises,
but will experience "walking a mile in each others shoes" through a
case study approach. The course is designed to maximize interaction
among participants and instructors, and it will be videotaped as the
foundation for Web-based training that will be made available to the
entire weather enterprise community.
Improving Partnerships through
Training: An Interactive Web-supported
Training Exercise for Decision-makers. Jason Johnson, Jonathan
Brazzell, Derek Deroche, Scott Overpeck, Seth Nagle, Julie States,
Hector Guerrero, and Amy McCullough, NOAA/NWS San Angelo, TX.
The National Weather Service has a long
tradition of providing weather support to emergency officials and first
responders during hazardous events. Fostering partnerships and
improving coordination with these groups promotes the planning and
preparation needed to build a strong network essential to saving
lives. With advances in technology, the NWS has added additional
ways for our customers to receive hazardous weather information,
including Internet-based products such as graphical forecasts, Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service graphics, and polygon warnings. With
these new products comes a responsibility to work with our partners to
ensure the information we provide is understandable and meets their
needs.
The NWS Weather Forecast Office in San Angelo
developed a training program aimed at enhancing the partnership and
communication with county officials and first responders, as well as
presenting new Internet-based products. The training program included a
tabletop exercise with multiple weather scenarios supported by a mock
NWS Internet web site. The training was designed to provide
numerous opportunities for open discussion to share best practices and
identify potential needs. Although the training was initially targeted
for decision-makers such as emergency managers and county judges, its
success generated numerous requests from other public safety groups
including 911 dispatchers and park rangers. The purpose of this
presentation is to briefly demonstrate the training course curriculum
and explain how this training has opened up new opportunities for the
NWS San Angelo staff to work directly with our partners. Not only do we
teach them about our new products and services, but we also strengthen
our partnership to improve our response to all hazards.
Instant Messaging, Then and Now. Faith Borden, and Darone Jones
NOAA/NWS, Birmingham, AL, and Daryl Herzmann, Iowa State University.
The National Weather Service Forecast
Office
in Birmingham, Alabama has been using instant messaging to communicate
with the media in real time since 2000. It has evolved over the
years from Yahoo! Instant Messenger to a new platform, IEM Chat, from
the Iowa Environmental Mesonet of Iowa State University. IEM Chat
is a secure and scalable instant-messaging platform built on the Jabber
XML Message Passing Protocol (XMPP). Since Jabber is open
standards based and freely extensible, exciting new software has been
developed on top of the IEM Chat platform code-named 'iembot'.
The 'iembot' software relays summaries of NWS issued text products into
pre-established chat rooms of which any signed up user can
simultaneously join. This software also allows for easy
management so participants can monitor and participate in multiple
rooms at one time. IEM Chat has allowed for WFO Birmingham to
expand the number of participants to include more than the media.
Being able to collaborate with local, county, and state emergency
management, in addition to our media partners, in real-time has
dramatically improved our ability to collect and disseminate accurate,
time critical products to our customers. Through this
presentation it will be demonstrated how instant messaging has evolved,
and how the IEM Chat platform has improved severe weather operations
for WFO Birmingham.
Impact Weather Communications. Mark
Fox, NOAA/NWS, Southern Region
Headquarters, Fort Worth, TX, Tom Bradshaw, NOAA/NWS, Southern Region
Headquarters.
The National Weather Service mission is
to
protect life and property and to enhance the nation’s economy. One of
the most effective ways to fulfill this mission is for local
forecasters to communicate effectively and openly during impact weather
events, giving customers and partners the necessary meteorological
information to decision makers.
A survey of the Warning and Coordination
Meteorologists within the Southern Region of the National Weather
Service was conducted in early summer of 2006, to determine the ways
and means of local communication efforts. The survey revealed a
progressive workforce utilizing various communication methods. Despite
a wide range of methods, each office defined their core group of
partners and customers and found ways to effectively communicate with
their local partners, customers, and public.
These diverse customer service methods are
examined across the Southern Region. This examination reveals the need
for local services tailored for local customer and partner needs.
The WEBCEM- An Automated
Dissemination Method for issuing Non-Weather
Related Hazardous Warnings via the Web. Brian C. Carcione,
Timothy W. Troutman, John M. Coyne, and Jason E. Burks, NOAA/NWS
Huntsville, AL.
This paper will detail the development
of a
cost efficient and more timely and accurate approach to disseminating
non-weather related warning information. The current process for
emergency managers to disseminate non-weather related emergency
messages is for the emergency managers to call or fax civil emergency
information to the local National Weather Service (NWS) office. A NWS
employee transcribes the message and then disseminates it via the NWS
AWIPS program through the EAS system to the media and NOAA Weather
Radio(NWR).
The purpose of this project was to develop a
method that would reduce the amount of time that it takes to
disseminate civil emergency and other related non-weather related
hazardous messages from local emergency management offices through the
NWS to the media and public. This nearly complete automation of these
non-weather related warnings will reduce the warning dissemination time
of these products from around seven minutes to less than two minutes.
The WEBCEM program allows EMA directors
the ability to visit a password protected web site to disseminate
non-weather related hazardous warning information directly to a local
National Weather Service office. This web based program allows for the
EMA director to choose the non-weather related hazard, type in the
necessary information needed within the warning text and disseminate
the warning message in a matter of seconds.
The WEBCEM method for issuing non-weather
related hazardous warning information has been successfully tested with
the end-to-end warning dissemination process being less than two
minutes. This dissemination process will allow the NWS and EMAs the
ability to utilize existing programs, computer servers and equipment to
disseminate the warning message in a timely and accurate manner,
therefore allowing for very minimal additional cost.
Watching Paint Weather: An
Overview of How We Use Different Climates
and Weathering Factors to Ensure Paint Will Last. Guy Wilson, Manager -
R&D Services, Sherwin-Williams Company.
Paint and coatings manufacturers as well
as
manufacturers of other polymer related materials rely heavily on
exterior natural weathering as the "gold standard" of performance
during development of a product. This presentation will give an
overview of how such testing is carried out and how weather and climate
can be used as a tool in this testing. Examples will be given of
the types of failure that are encountered and how to accelerate such
failures.
A Public-Private Partnership
to Saturate Two Television Markets with
NOAA Weather Radio. John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA,
Wayne Hart, WEHT-TV, Evansville, IN, Rick Shanklin, NOAA/NWS Paducah,
KY, and Jeff Johnson, NOAA/NWS Des Moines, IA .
During the month of November 2005
several
deadly tornadoes moved across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley.
These tornadoes caused millions in property damage and loss of life in
the Evansville, Indiana and Des Moines, Iowa television markets.
Stations WEHT-TV in Evansville and
KCCI-TV in Des Moines joined with a manufacturer of digital Specific
Area Message Encoded (S.A.M.E.) NOAA weather radios and major grocery
store chains to make weather radios available at near wholesale cost.
The result has been that nearly 100,000 weather radios are now in the
hands of television viewers in these markets.
The stations also worked with the
Paducah, Kentucky and Des Moines, Iowa National Weather Service offices
to assist the public with programming weather radios by hosting special
"programming days" several times during the spring. Many thousands of
radios were programmed during these highly publicized events.
Video clips from the public
outreach events and television promotions from each station's campaign
will help to illustrate the overwhelming public response. This will
also allow for an opportunity for audience discussion about the
learning curve that took place during the first six weeks of these
sister campaigns.
Applied Meteorology in the Mobile
Marketplace. Bob Baron and Rob
Doornbos, Baron Services, Inc., Huntsville, AL
It has long been acknowledged that
accurate
and timely weather information has a critical role to play in the
safety of the general public, the continued efficiency of business
operations and the efficacy of emergency services provided by first
responders. The Baron Services paradigm of "Detect-Disseminate-Respond"
is in direct response to those needs and at the core of what we
recognize as Consumer-Driven Weather.
Technology has evolved to a point that
consumers no longer have to surrender access to graphical weather
information when they leave their homes or offices. Real-time weather
data is already being provided to mobile environments, thanks to a
cutting-edge partnership between Baron Services and XM Satellite Radio.
The resulting service, XM WX Satellite
Weather (inception circa 2002), delivers real-time,
scientifically-sound weather content to tens of thousands of consumers
onboard airplanes, boats and automobiles. Consumers overwhelming
embrace of XM-delivered weather data is the result of
carefully-designed product suites for each consumer group. An entirely
new paradigm shift, Driver Driven Weather, has also been designed for
the nation s automobiles.
This paper will provide those in attendance
with an overview of lessons learned to date, the data utilized, the
technology employed, as well as anticipated future developments.
Session: Winter Weather
On the Co-existence of Thundersnow
and Heavy Snowfall. Christina Crowe,
Patrick Market, Brian Pettegrew, and Chris Melick, University of
Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO
A general assumption has existed for
quite
some time that lightning and thunder within a snowstorm must be
accompanied by locally heavier snowfall. While neither historical
studies nor specific case studies support this claim for all
thundersnow occurrences, instances of large snow accumulations and
elevated lightning rates do seem to be well-correlated in the stronger,
more dynamic extratropical cyclones. This study seeks to
determine whether lightning strikes are co-located with heavier bands
of short-term snowfall rates and/or long-term snowfall
accumulations. In the case of short term snowfall rates, WSR-88D
and NLDN data (after 2003) or METARs (prior to 2003) were used for the
analysis. We found that locations of observed lightning were at
or near a snow band and that most occurred within the region between
the core values in the band and where those values drop to ½ of
the max value typical reflectivities (30 dBz) in vicinity of flash
(range 18-40dBz).
For long term, 24-hour snowfall
accumulation, historical surface observations and daily snowfall totals
were taken from the Cooperative Climate Observers for cases from
1961-1990; events occurring 6 hours before CCO reports (1200 CST)
preferred. In this instance, we found that in 86% of the events
examined, 15cm fell within 1° of latitude of the
lightning-reporting station. In 45% of the events, snowfall
totals 25 cm occurred within 1° of latitude. In short,
three broad conclusions are reached: 1) Lightning in these events tends
to occur in relatively close proximity to instantaneous regions of
stronger reflectivity; 2) Thundersnow events tend to be associated with
regions of higher (>15cm) snowfall accumulations, but not the very
deepest totals, and 3) The existence of lightning and thunder tends to
point a more vigorous, precipitation-producing portion of Midwestern
extratropical cyclones.
Lake Effect Thunder-Snows Over
the Eastern Great Lakes. Robert
Hamilton, NOAA/NWS Buffalo, NY, and Scott Steiger, Ph.D., Assistant
Professor, SUNY Oswego. NY
Heavy lake effect snows typify
winter
weather across Western New York as intrusions of arctic air generate
snowfall amounts that are often measured in feet. While
significant snowfall is produced from these events with convective
outbursts capable of producing rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour, they are
usually very localized in aerial coverage.
Lightning and thunder occasionally highlight
these impressive mesoscale events. Lightning-bearing lake effect snows
across Western New York typically occur early in the winter season. The
surface temperatures of Lakes Erie and Ontario are still relatively
"warm" at that time of year. In addition, the depth of the surface to
-10C layer is still several thousand feet thick.
Higher lake temperatures and a deeper
boundary layer appear to be critical components that allow for abundant
graupel production. The increased graupel is a crucial element in
helping to produce an electrical charge, both by its electrostatic
properties and through its role in building a static charge through
frictional collisions with smaller ice particles and super cooled water
droplets. Current electrification models strongly support the
theory that graupel production in the 10C to 20C layer is
essential for the beginning stages of lightning production. The depth
of the surface to -10C layer is also extremely important in terms of
allowing for charge separation.
This research has been conducted using
nearly 10 years worth of sounding and ETA model data, dating from the
winters of 1996 97 through 2005 2006. Results of this study on
Western New York thunder-snow events suggest that if the depth of the
surface to -10C is too shallow then graupel cannot be produced and
lightning is much less likely. Various other convective
parameters such as vertical velocity, CAPE, and equilibrium level are
also examined to determine their possible contribution to lightning
production in lake effect snow.
This presentation will show the importance of
the lake water temperature in generating graupel that is crucial to
developing an electrical charge within the lake effect clouds.
Simulation of Lake Effect Snow using
the Workstation WRF model. Daniel
Leins and Robert LaPlante, NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH
Lake Effect snow (LES) events
produce
significant amounts of snow from mesoscale snow bands downwind of the
Great Lakes during the winter months. The mesoscale nature of the
LES bands produce sharp, intense gradients in snowfall that are a
challenge to simulate with operational model horizontal grid spacing in
excess of 10 km. The workstation version of the Weather Research
and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS) with a finer
resolution of 6 km was employed by WFO Cleveland to simulate LES over
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania during the 2005-2006 winter
season. Several LES events were identified and numerical model
initial and boundary conditions were saved. This presentation
will show the results of WRF sensitivity studies that were conducted by
varying the model horizontal resolution from 3 to 6 km, by varying the
cloud microphysical scheme, and by varying the choice of convective
parameterization scheme. Model output will be verified with snow
spotter observations along with satellite and radar imagery to
determine the optimal model configuration, which will be used in future
simulations.
Correlations between Observed
Snowfall and NAM Forecast Parameters:
Part 1 Dynamical Parameters, Part 2 - Microphysical
Parameters.
Michael Evans and Michael L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS Binghamton,
NY.
Mesoscale and microscale factors
that
lead to enhanced snowfall in winter storms have been a topic of
extensive research during the past several years. Research has
shown that bands of heavy snow are often explained dynamically in terms
of a thermally direct circulation associated with strong, steeply
sloped lower to mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which becomes
co-located with a region of reduced or negative stability to slantwise
motions. In cases of lighter but still significant bands of snow,
recent research has shown that the thermally direct circulations are
weaker, shallower, and less persistent than in heavier events.
Based on this research, forecasters engaged in predicting snowfall have
been trained to look for favorable configurations of frontogenesis and
reduced or negative stability [as indicated by small or negative values
of saturation equivalent potential vorticity (EPV)]. However,
little guidance is currently available on how to translate the
existence, intensity, and persistence of these signatures into actual
snowfall amounts. Regarding the microscale, research has shown
that enhanced snowfall can occur when significant lift occurs in layers
with temperature structures that are favorable for dendritic snow
crystal growth (dendrite-production layers). Again, except for
some algorithms related to snow-to-liquid ratios, little guidance is
available to forecasters on how specifically to modify snowfall
forecasts based on the existence of co-located upward vertical motion
and a favorable thermal profile.
The goal of this study is two-fold.
First, to validate the utility of examining frontogenesis, EPV,
vertical velocity, and temperature profiles for snowfall
forecasting. Second, to provide forecasters with guidance on
forecasting snowfall amounts, based on thresholds of intensity and
persistence of these parameters. To accomplish these goals, data
from 29 snow events in central New York and northeast Pennsylvania were
examined. Event-maximum snowfall in these cases ranged from 4 to 34
inches. For each event a representative time and location within
the area of heavy snow was identified. Data valid at these times
and locations were analyzed in both cross-sectional and time-height
formats. Values of relevant parameters were recorded for each event.
Part one of this study focuses on correlations between snowfall and
dynamical parameters such as frontogenesis, EPV, and omega. Part
two of the study focuses on correlations between snowfall and factors
related to precipitation efficiency, such as co-location between upward
motion and a favorable thermodynamic profile
Preliminary results will be presented that
indicate that every storm in the database was associated with a 12-hour
forecast of at least one layer of frontogenesis below 500 hPa, and at
least one layer of negative EPV below 400 hPa. Therefore, it
appears that merely identifying the existence of those two factors is
not enough to allow forecasters to conclude anything about storm-total
snowfall amounts. However, strong correlations were found between
observed snowfall and factors that were related to depth and
persistence of co-located upward vertical motion and negative
EPV. The fact that these correlations were stronger than the
correlations between observed snowfall and persistence and depth of
upward vertical motion (EPV not considered) implies that there is
significant value in looking for negative EPV in the forecast
process. Strong correlations were also found between observed
snowfall and maximum upward vertical motion within dendrite-production
layers, while somewhat weaker correlations were found between snowfall
and vertical motion alone (dendrite-production layer depth not
considered). Evidence will be presented that indicates that
consideration of the dendrite-production layer in the forecast process
reduces false alarm rates for light to moderate snow events. Much
lower correlations were found with 24-hour forecasts of many of these
parameters, due primarily to a few major model forecast busts.
Details of the above correlation
methodology, resulting correlations, forecasting thresholds, and
threshold statistics will be presented.
The Great Ohio Blizzard of 1978: Storm review and assessment of
societal impacts.
Kirk A. Lombardy, NOAA/NWS Cleveland, Ohio, and Dr. Thomas W.
Schmidlin, Kent State University.
The infamous Great Blizzard of 1978 will
continue to live on in the memory of those that lived in Ohio during
the event. The storm was classified as the worst ever to
hit Ohio with 51 dead and a declaration as a federal disaster area left
in its wake. The blizzard developed as a Delta low and
moved north into Ohio on 26 January 1978, while deepening rapidly to a
record low pressure for Ohio. Hurricane force winds caused
significant drifting of snow up to 20 feet across the region. The
strong winds left thousands without electrical power for days.
The purpose of this presentation is to examine the meteorology of this
historic storm and its impact on transportation, business, industry and
schools. The potential impact of an equivalent storm on today s
society will also be discussed.
The Blizzard of 2006 in the
Northeast: A look inside the
operations of a National Weather Service Forecast Office. Patrick
Maloit and Jeffrey Tongue, NOAA/NWS Upton, NY.
On February 12, 2006, record setting
snowfall
occurred in the megalopolis of the northeastern United States extending
from Philadelphia to New York City to Boston. Snow fall measured
in New York City and other locations exceed all time snowstorm
records 26.9 inches was measured in Central Park, New York,
NY. The Central Park measurement is now recorded as the greatest
snowfall from a single storm ever in over 135 years of record.
The news associated with this event was in
actuality the lack of news. Despite record breaking snowfall, the
region was able to recover quickly due to advance warning and
preparedness. Many schools and business were able to open the
following day.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in
the northeast began issuing outlooks for the potential for a
significant storm four days prior. Winter Storm Watches were
issued two days before the event and blizzard warnings were posted 25
hours in advance.
This presentation will describe the
varying meteorological guidance that NWS forecasters had to convey into
a deterministic forecast. It will examine pressures to adjust the
forecast and how the meteorologist’s skills lead to producing an
accurate forecast that gave sufficient lead-time for the record
event.
During the event, the NWS forecasters
provided detailed information to the public and media about the
progress of the event. The largest problem that required the most
effort was compiling the hundreds of reports of snowfall that arrive at
the NWS from various sources. Getting these reports disseminated
in a logical manner and ensuring that they were reasonably accurate
becomes an increasingly complex chore for the local NWS office.
Session: Probabilistic Forecasting
Model JUMPINESS and
the Need for Ensembles. Richard
Grumm, NOAA/NWS State College PA, and Lance Bosart, State University of
New York at Albany.
Weather forecast uncertainties
derived from
run-to-run inconsistencies between successive forecasts of a single
deterministic model occur with regularity. The resulting forecast
jumpiness can occur at both the synoptic and mesoscale. At the synoptic
scale, a significant storm system, initially not present may appear and
in some cases, disappear in later forecasts. On the mesoscale, the
track and intensity of the weather system may show considerable
run-to-run variation. Thus, the concept of the weather system is
present but the area most likely impacted by the significant weather
may show considerable variability.
Sensible weather forecasts are greatly
impacted by model jumpiness. Model jumpiness is defined here as large
cycle-to-cycle changes in system location or intensity. The overall
impact is larger at longer ranges where the uncertainty is larger.
However, with significant precipitation events, model jumpiness on the
mesoscale can contribute to equally large uncertainty on the mesoscale
as to the location of heaviest precipitation.
This paper will document successive forecasts
of cyclones in the eastern United States during the winter of
2005-2006. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Global Forecast System (GFS) is used to show model jumpiness in
successive 6 and 12-hour forecasts. How these forecasts impact
the sensible weather is also presented. The benefits of using medium-
and short-range ensemble forecasts (MREF and SREF respectively) are
presented as tools to mitigate the effects of model jumpiness.
A case study of the 12 February 2006 East
Coast winter storm is presented, showing how the GFS initially failed
to predict the cyclone. Once the cyclone was forecast by the GFS, the
details related to the mesoscale weather varied markedly at shorter
ranges. The NCEP
MREF and SREF forecasts are also presented. The MREF indicated the
potential East Coast storm approximately 0.5 days earlier than the
deterministic GFS. However, jumpiness issues were present in both
ensemble prediction systems which also impacted the forecasts related
to where the heaviest precipitation would fall.
Using Ensemble Probability
Forecasts And High Resolution Models To
Identify Severe Weather Threats. Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS,
Pittsburgh, PA, and Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) data
from the
NOAA/NWS National Centers of Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP)
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (Du et al. 2004:SREF) are used to
predict areas with a severe weather threat. This study illustrates the
value of using SREF forecast products that depict probabilities of
exceedance and joint probabilities of variables related to severe
weather. Probabilities of exceedance for Convective Available Potential
Energy (CAPE), Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH), height normalized (mean)
shear, and the Energy Helicity Index (EHI) are examined. Joint
probabilities of CAPE, effective shear, and 3 hr. convective
precipitation are also considered.
SREF probability forecasts are examined for a
vigorous severe weather event that occurred across much of the central
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys on 2 April 2006. We will show that
joint and exceedance probabilities from the SREF make it possible to
clearly distinguish areas with the greatest severe weather
potential.
A forecast strategy is proposed that
utilizes:
1) ensemble data for assessing the likelihood, mode, and forecast
confidence of a severe weather event; 2) climatological anomalies for
evaluating the historical context of an impending event; and 3) high
resolution model data for determining the magnitude of moisture, the
horizontal and vertical extent of moisture, important mesoscale
structures, and relevant forcing mechanisms at short ranges.
Expressing Uncertainty in both
Hazardous and Routine Weather Forecasts
at a NWS Forecast Office. Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA/NWS Milwaukee/
Sullivan WI.
Recent advances in production of
Graphical and
Gridded forecast elements at National Weather Service (NWS) Offices
have included many basic elements such as temperature, dewpoints,
winds, precipitation, and sky cover. However, the primary mission
of the NWS is the protection of lives and property. Hazardous
Weather Outlooks issued by NWS offices do provide yes/no forecasts of
severe weather, heavy rain, winter weather, and extreme temperatures
and winds. However, these elements are not currently connected to
the graphical forecast process in IFPS (Interactive Forecast
Preparation System) and GFE (Graphical Forecast Editor).
A multi-disciplinary group of scientists is
looking into how to better communicate uncertainty in weather forecasts
and warnings to users. The Weather and Society Integrated Studies
(WAS *IS) workshops have adopted this as one of the topics of focus
(http://www.rap.ucar.edu/was_is/).
This presentation will describe an
experimental project to provide probabilistic information on hazardous
weather elements. The products are disseminated in a graphical
and tabular format using the GFE to our customers, primarily the
Emergency Managers and Media. Examples of how routine temperature
and precipitation forecasts can also contain more uncertainty
information will also be presented.
The Short-Range Ensemble
Forecast: Applying Uncertainty and
Probabilistic Forecasts of Winter Storms. Matthew Steinbugl,
NOAA/NWS Des Moines, IA, and Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWS State
College. PA
Ensemble prediction system s (EPS s) are
generally assessed in terms of a probabilistic approach, essentially
forecasting the uncertainty with respect to numerical weather
prediction (NWP) model output. These forecasts provide multiple
solutions provided by varied initial conditions and model cores.
In contrast, deterministic NWP model output depicts a single solution,
leaving the forecaster with no true sense of range of potential
outcomes. Often, this leads forecasters to not consider the uncertainty
within the forecast process and ultimately not provide the best support
for the customer.
Ensembles allow the forecaster to mitigate
some the inherit uncertainty in weather forecasts. A key method to
accomplish this includes the use of probabilistic forecast products and
displays showing dispersion of each member about the ensemble mean.
These products allow forecasters to make quick assessments of the
relative frequency of occurrence of an event among several
member solutions. Forecasting late season snowfall can be very
difficult and have significant impact on local and regional economics.
The National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP) Short-Range
Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is one tool that can be used to understand the
uncertainty within the model output and add confidence to the overall
forecast of a potentially rare event. EPS systems also perform well in
predicting anomalous events when compared to long term climatology.
Late-season winter storms certainly provide a challenge to operational
forecasters and by using the SREF, forecast uncertainty can become
forecaster confidence.
This study will examine ensemble forecasts of
several late season snowstorms in the upper Midwest. Storms used
in this study include
the 22-23 December
2004, 23-25 April 2005, and the 11-12 May 2006 snow events.
Using Ensemble Model Output
Statistics to Improve 12-Hour Probability
of Precipitation Forecasts. John P. Gagan, NOAA/NWS Springfield,
MO, and Chad Entremont, NOAA/NWS Jackson, MS.
NOAA/National Weather Service Weather
Forecast
Offices (NWS WFOs) provide 12-hour probability of precipitation (PoP)
forecasts as part of their routine 7-day forecasts. The PoP, as
defined in NWS directive 10-503, is the probability of occurrence of
measurable precipitation (0.01 inch) at a given point for each 12-hour
period through Day 7. PoP forecasts are relied on by a broad
range of end-users in order to make decisions for their respective
outdoor activities. As a result, accurate PoP forecasts are an
integral part of the NWS WFO mission.
Numerous tools are available to prepare
a PoP forecast, ranging from raw numerical model output, such as NCEP's
Global Forecast System (GFS), to model output statistics (MOS) such as
the GFS MOS (out to forecast hour 72) and GFSX MOS (out to forecast
hour 168). PoP forecasts from MOS guidance are consistent with
the definition outlined by NWS Directive 10-503 and are produced for 6,
12 and 24 hour periods for hundreds of points across North
America. As a metric, NWS official verification compares WFO PoP
forecasts to the GFS and GFSX MOS output. From January 2004
through April 2006, verification of PoP forecasts from NWS WFOs show
consistent improvement over GFS and GFSX MOS when no precipitation is
observed. However, when precipitation is observed, GFS and GFSX
MOS typically outperform NWS WFOs.
Ensemble based MOS (based off of the twelve
members of the GFS ensemble system) will be examined to investigate if
PoP forecasts can be improved when precipitation is observed. The
ensemble MOS will be explored at seven sites located across two
separate NWS WFO areas of responsibility: Jackson, MS (KJAN) and
Springfield, MO (KSGF). The ensemble-mean 12-hour PoP will be
analyzed for each forecast period and compared to rainfall accumulation
data from each respective METAR sites. Ensemble-mean values will then
be stratified to isolate what values signal the best (least) potential
for measurable precipitation.
Updated Thunderstorm
Probability Forecast Guidance in Support of
Gridded Model Output Statistics. Kathryn Gilbert, NOAA/NWS Silver
Spring, MD
For years, National Weather Service
(NWS)
forecasters have used Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance as an aid
in producing text forecast products issued to the user community.
However, the methods that forecasters use to generate forecast products
have now changed be-cause of requirements to produce forecasts on
high-resolution grids in support of the National Digital Forecast
Database (NDFD). Forecasters need guidance, such as MOS,
available on a grid, at a resolution comparable to the grid resolution
used at the local forecast office. In most cases, this resolution
is 5-km, but may be as fine as 2.5-km or even 1.25-km, in areas of
complex terrain. Statistical techniques have been used to derive
model-based objective probabilistic thunderstorm guidance on grids
since the mid-1970s -- in a sense, a precursor to our current efforts
to develop a complete gridded MOS system.
Recently, an updated thunderstorm probability
guidance system, based on output from the Global Forecast System (GFS)
was implemented to reflect the NDFD grid requirements. This
thunderstorm guidance product represents the probability of one or more
cloud-to-ground lightning strikes within a 40-km square box over the
contiguous U.S., centered on each 5-km grid box during a given time
period. Thunderstorm probability forecast guidance was developed
for
6-, 12-, and 24-h periods from projections ending at 12 hours in
advance, out to 192 hours in advance. In addition, to meet the
needs of forecasters producing guidance for finer time scales, a new
set of thunderstorm forecast equations was developed for 3-h periods
out to 84 hours in advance. The equations to predict the
probability of thunderstorms were developed from observed
cloud-to-ground lightning data and output from the GFS model.
Relative frequencies of lightning, generated from the lightning
observations, were created as potential predictors in the statistical
forecast system, and were used for comparing the accuracy of the
forecast guidance to forecasts based solely on climate.
The use of a Geographical Information System
(GIS) has become a valuable tool in the creation of gridded MOS
thunderstorm guidance. GIS techniques were employed to match the
observed data to the grid specifications, evaluate the relative
frequencies, and eliminate areas with no data coverage from
development. The GIS also allows us to explore new data types
such as terrain features, land cover, and high resolution gridded
climate data, for use as potential predictors in our gridded MOS
system. These higher resolution data types will supplement our
traditional set of model predictors and surface observations in the
development of the gridded MOS system. In this presentation, the
current MOS probabilistic thunderstorm guidance is discussed. In
addition, other examples of elements in the gridded MOS guidance
system, such as maximum and minimum temperatures, probability of
precipitation, temperature, dewpoint, wind direction, and wind speed,
are shown.
Session: Severe Weather I
Verification of Particularly
Dangerous Situation (PDS) Watches.
Joseph T. Schaefer, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Andrew R.
Dean, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and SPC.
Ever since the first watch associated
with the
Red River tornado outbreak of April 2, 1982, a few of the tornado and
severe thunderstorm watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC), and its predecessor the National Severe Storms Forecast Center
(NSSFC), include a one sentence paragraph that states
“THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION”
This line immediately follows the
effective time in the header of the watch. Currently this enhanced
wording is inserted into tornado watches when there is a likelihood of
multiple strong tornadoes (damage of F2 or F3) or at least one violent
(damage of F4 or F5) tornado. Currently, this enhancement is also used
in severe thunderstorm watches in two kinds of situations: 1) when
conditions are favorable for significant non-tornadic severe weather
events (convective wind gusts of at least 65 knots and/or hail with a
diameter of 2 or greater); and 2) when a large bow echo system has
developed, is moving at 48 knots or greater, and there is evidence of
destructive winds occurring at the surface.
In this presentation, PDS watches issued
during the 10-year period 1996 through 2005 are examined. Over the last
decade, there has been an average of 22 PDS tornado watches and 2 PDS
severe thunderstorm watches issued each year. This is only about 8% of
the watches issued. PDS tornado watches correctly forecast 24% of the
occurrences of clusters of multiple strong and violent tornadoes. Also,
about 30% of PDS tornado watches contain multiple strong or violent
tornadoes.
As the forecast severity of the watch
increases (i.e., Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Tornado Watch, PDS Tornado
Watch), the percent aerial coverage of the watch impacted by tornado
activity, and by strong and violent tornado activity increases.
Thus, performance over the past decade indicates that the SPC shows
skill in differentiating situations that are likely to produce strong
and violent tornadoes.
The Severe Hail Verification
Experiment (SHAVE 2006).
Travis Smith, U. of Oklahoma/CIMMS / NSSL, Kiel Ortega, and Kevin
Scharfenberg both with the U. of Oklahoma/CIMMS / NSSL.
This presentation highlights preliminary
results from the Severe Hail Verification Experiment (SHAVE), which is
a project that blends high-resolution radar data with geographic
information. The primary objective of this experiment is to collect
high temporal and spatial resolution data that describe the
distribution of hail sizes in hail swaths produced by severe
thunderstorms. These data enable several goals, including:
1. to utilize the high-resolution verification data in the development
of techniques for probabilistic warnings of severe thunderstorms,
2. to evaluate the performance of a multi-sensor, multi-radar hail
detection algorithm,
3. to correlate changes in the hail size distribution with storm
evolution, and
4. to enhance climatological information about hail in the United
States.
The high spatial and temporal resolution of the dataset collected
during the project facilitates the development of decision-making tools
that improve forecasts and warnings of severe hail as well as improving
the historical record of hail events. The project runs approximately
May 15, 2006 through August 15, 2006. It utilizes the real-time hail
swath products from the CONUS Warning Decision Support
System Integrated Information (WDSS-II) to enhance data
collection via verification telephone calls to select data points along
a storm's path immediately following storm passage. Because the
presence of hail is diagnosed via radar on the scale of the continental
United States, it is possible to collect data from anywhere in the
contiguous 48 states on a daily basis throughout the summer, which
minimizes project "down days." Data are collected by a team of
University of Oklahoma meteorology students working closely with
scientists from the National Severe Storms Laboratory/Cooperative
Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies. SHAVE is an experiment
conducted in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed as part of the
Experimental Warning Program by the NSSL/CIMMS Severe Weather Warning
Applications and Technology Transfer (SWAT) group.
Changes in F-Scale, Hail and
Wind Reports. Daniel McCarthy and Joseph
T. Schaefer, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center.
During the last few years, changes have
been
made in storm reporting in the hope of improving the severe weather
data available for research. Changes such as the hail experiment
in Kansas and reporting measured or estimated wind gusts are already
taking place and have affected the 2005 data noticeably.
The popular F-Scale developed in 1971 by Dr.
T. Fujita to estimate hurricane and tornado wind intensity based on
damage caused by these storms will be changing in early 2007. The
practical use of the scale was made evident by the thorough survey of
the damage from the Super Outbreak performed by him and his staff at
the University of Chicago. After Fujita and his team published
their results, the F-Scale became the cornerstone of determining
tornado character and strength. Databases were redone to include
F-Scale estimates based on past accounts and descriptions.
This presentation will illustrate the changes
in applying the F-Scale has had on the historical database as the
meteorological community sits at the cusp of using the Enhanced Fujita
Scale (EF-Scale). Effects of raising hail criteria to one-inch
diameter for severe criteria will also be illustrated.
A Proposal for a Threat Level
Scale for National Weather Service Severe
Thunderstorm Warnings. Kelly G. Godsey, Robert C. Goree and
Andrew I. Watson, NOAA/NWS Tallahassee, FL
The National Weather Service (NWS)
issues
severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings to prompt public
response and save lives and property. Response to tornado
warnings has increased over recent decades resulting in innumerable
lives saved. Response to severe thunderstorm warnings has not
improved and arguably has decreased. This may be due to the large
increase in the number of severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the
NWS the early 1990s. Another factor is that many marginally
severe storms do not result in significant, noteworthy damage.
Severe thunderstorms are defined by ¾ inch or larger hail and
winds of 50 knots or greater. However, many severe thunderstorm
warnings are verified as severe, without objective measurements and may
have been less intense than the official severe thresholds. The
resulting public perception is that a severe thunderstorm warning does
not suggest a serious threat.
Thunderstorms of any intensity present some
degree of threat to life and property. Torrential rain causes
localized flooding and traffic fatalities. Lightning causes many
deaths and injuries. Even small hail, especially in large
amounts, is a hazard to motorists and agriculture. Many offices
issue significant weather alerts for strong storms that do not meet NWS
severe criteria. Indeed, many thunderstorms do attain intensity
that present a significant threat to people but are below severe
thresholds. Often, the public or local authorities report that
the thunderstorm is severe based upon the intensity of the rain and
lightning.
It is likely that the public would benefit
from an enhancement of thunderstorm forecasts and warnings.
Therefore, a thunderstorm intensity scale has been developed to give
the public a tool for response to thunderstorm hazards. The
purpose of this scale would be to allow vulnerable populations to
respond more aptly to marginal storms, while allowing less sensitive
populations to set higher thresholds of response.
It is obvious that our culture has
appreciation for such scales. The Saffir-Simpson and the Fujita
scales are well understood by the public and can often give people
better perception of danger. With respect to hurricanes, many
officials rely on the forecast Saffir-Simpson scale in making
evacuation decisions. It is suggested that people would likewise
respond to a thunderstorm threat level. An example scenario would
be the suspension of an event based upon the forecast of a threat level
2 thunderstorm within the next hour.
Current severe thunderstorm warning criteria
and verification methods would continue, but with an added threat
level. This could be accomplished by integrating four main
threats of a severe thunderstorm that are hazardous to the public
(wind, hail, lightning and heavy rain) into a composite index that
corresponds to a threat level easily identifiable by the public, that
quickly conveys the level of threat expected. The scale is
heavily weighted toward wind and hail impacts. The scale is made up of
six threat levels ranging from one to six, with six being the
highest. Using current severe thunderstorm warning criteria,
nearly every severe thunderstorm warning issued will be of at least
threat level two intensity. Some thunderstorms producing
exceptional rain, very frequent lightning and/or small hail would also
be deemed threat level 2. Threat level one intensity is designed
for most thunderstorms not meeting severe criteria. As the
impacts from a thunderstorm increase, the threat level will increase
based on the composite index. The wind component of the index
increases non-linearly once current severe criteria is attained.
The wind component was designed in this manner to correlate with the
known fact that the force of wind does not increase at a constant rate
as wind velocity increases. This places significant severe
damaging wind events (65 knots to 74 knots) entirely within the threat
level three ranking, with threat level four being used for extreme
damaging wind events with 75 knots to 90 knot winds. Threat levels five
and six would rarely be used based on just wind alone, unless they are
used in conjunction with tornado and destructive wind warnings issued
during tropical cyclone events.
Hail contributes to the index in an
interesting way. While to the public, any hail that falls may be
significant, small hail stones less than one inch in diameter will
cause little or no damage to property. In this instance, the hail
index will add a minor adjustment to the composite index for these
small stones, but it is hail larger than one and one quarter inch in
diameter that will, in many cases, elevate the threat level of a
warning one level. The hail index was designed this way because
it is at this size (1.25 in. or larger) that significant damage will be
done to automobiles.
Since time is crucial during any severe
weather event, calculations for the index would be determined
automatically, based on inputs by the warning forecaster into a free
standing graphical user interface (GUI) based on expected wind speed,
hail size, cloud to ground lightning strikes, and hourly rainfall
totals. These calculations would assign a threat level to each
warning issued. Once a threat level is determined, the forecaster
would select the appropriate level in the WarnGen GUI. Call to
action statements would need to be created that are designed for each
threat level.
In the near future, a scale such as this could
be used by a meteorologist to rapidly create and update, though
graphical interfaces, detailed temporal and spatial thunderstorm
forecasts. Use of more advanced radars, mesonets and other
technologies, as well as improved mesoscale models will empower the
future NWS forecaster to produce finely detailed forecasts of
thunderstorm hazards. Both text and graphical products would be
generated based upon the forecaster's input. Text products would
contain threat descriptions and call-to-action statements based upon
the forecaster input. Graphical and GIS applications would be
utilized by the public and private sectors.
As the public and others become aware of the
new threat levels, they will quickly identify and relate the threat
levels to the strength of storms they experience. This scale, if
used, could contribute to the goal of the NWS, which is to protect life
and property whenever severe weather threatens.
SVRGIS: Geographic
Information System (GIS) Graphical Database of
Tornado, Large Hail, and Damaging Wind Reports in the United States
(1950-2005). Bryan Smith, Ball State University, Muncie, IN
For many years
meteorologists have
used existing severe weather report databases to identify regions where
greater documentation of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind
reports exist. Recent user-friendly software programs such as
SeverePlot ver. 2.0, developed by John Hart of the NOAA/NWS Storm
Prediction Center, allow users to query severe weather reports.
SVRGIS builds on the idea of querying data, allowing users to run
advanced queries overlaying Storm Data reports with other
meteorological and non-meteorological data. Basic queries overlay
geographical data, such as incorporated city areas, with queried severe
reports. One example of a more advanced query technique is to
query documented violent damage-rated tornadoes from 1950-2005 and
apply line density analysis techniques to investigate where violent
tornadoes occurred with higher spatial density with respect to U.S.
2000 census population data.
With the availability of Storm Data severe
weather reports in text file format via the Storm Prediction Center s
Severe Weather Database and GIS technology, a GIS severe weather report
database (1950-2005) was developed in order for users to investigate
possible relationships with meteorological and non-meteorological
data. SVRGIS is unique because it allows users to overlay
multiple data types for analysis. This presentation will describe
the data collection and post-processing techniques used to construct a
GIS severe reports climatology, display queried meteorological and
non-meteorological data, and consider relationships between the
1950-2005 Storm Data and non-meteorological databases.
Cyclone Saturday: A Review of
the Teamwork and Technology during the 12
November 2005 Iowa Tornadoes. John McLaughlin, KCCI-TV, Des Moines, IA,
and Daryl Herzmann, Iowa State University, Ames, IA
On 12 November 2005, a series of late
season
supercell storms moved across Central Iowa, striking three
communities. Due to a combination of timely NWS warnings, live
webcam/stormchaser video and continuous media broadcasts, few injuries
and only one death occurred. The event was also unique in that a
NCAA College football game with 50,000 fans in Ames, Iowa was about to
begin when a tornado passed within three miles of the stadium.
Performance of the Experimental 4.5
km WRF-NMM Model During Recent
Severe Weather Outbreaks. Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction
Center, John S. Kain, NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, David
R. Bright, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK and Matthew E.
Pyle, Zavisa I. Janjic and Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS
Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD
The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling
Center has been running an experimental high resolution version of the
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model
(NMM) for the NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center since April
2004. This model is run with 4.5 km grid length and 35 vertical
levels over a domain covering approximately the eastern three-fourths
of the United States. It is currently initialized from a cold
start once daily at 0000 UTC using initial and lateral boundary
conditions from the operational North American Mesoscale model, and
provides forecasts through a 36 hour period. The WRF-NMM4 does
not employ parameterized convection, and all precipitation is generated
from the explicit Ferrier cloud microphysics scheme.
Initial testing of this model began as part of
the 2004 SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment, a multi-agency collaborative
program within the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed that brings together
forecasters, researchers, and model developers to explore topics of
mutual interest. In particular, recent Spring Experiments have
focused on assessing the operational utility of high-resolution models
to provide unique information about convective initiation, evolution,
and mode for SPC severe weather forecasters. Over the last two
years, the WRF-NMM4 has been periodically upgraded and currently runs
using the community WRF version 2 framework.
Several unique WRF-NMM4 products have been
developed for use by severe weather forecasters, including simulated
reflectivity and a measure of updraft rotation in model-generated
storms. These guidance products are made available to SPC
forecasters on a daily basis, and WRF-NMM4 products have been routinely
incorporated into the SPC operational decision-making process.
Although Spring 2005 was relatively inactive
for tornado outbreaks, a number of major tornado and severe
thunderstorm occurred during the period from late Fall 2005 into the
Spring of 2006. We examine the performance of the WRF-NMM4 during
ten major outbreak days from November 2005 through May 2006, focusing
on the ability of the model to provide improved guidance for convective
initiation, intensity, mode and evolution. Implications for the
use of high-resolution model data in an operational forecasting
environment are also presented.
THE 11-13 MARCH 2006 MID-SOUTH
TORNADO OUTBREAK...WHY IT NEVER
OCCURRED. Dan Valle, NOAA/NWS Memphis, TN
There were numerous indications of a
major
tornado outbreak across the Mid South. Summer-like heat combined with
unusually high low level moisture to produce extreme instability for
several days. Tremendous deep layer and low-level shear suggested the
development of tornadic supercells. Two upper level short-wave troughs
embedded in the strong southwesterly flow were expected to move through
the area.
The first short wave forced a cold front to
move to the Missouri/Arkansas border during the evening of the 11th and
into the early morning of the 12th. GFS and NAM models initiated
convection over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. This was
the result of a strengthening low level jet interacting with the front
to break a weak cap over the region. The second short wave would arrive
the next night. This short wave would drag the cold front through the
region. The severe weather parameters for this second short wave were
high as well. Both GFS and NAM indicated discrete storms developing
over central Arkansas before merging into a solid line near the
Mississippi River.
A tornado outbreak did occur; however, it was
over western and east-central Missouri. There were no reports of
tornadoes over the Mid-South region. This presentation will help
forecasters better predict outbreaks by explaining why this forecast
did not evolve as anticipated.
SESSION: Special Tribute to the late Dr. Roderick
A.
Scofield, NWA Past-president
Estimating Rainfall from GOES
Satellite Imagery - The Early
Years. Samuel K. Beckman, NOAA/NWS Training Center, Kansas City,
MO
Beginning in the late 1970s, crude
methods
were used to estimate rainfall from GOES satellite imagery.
Convective cloud-top expansion rates in half-hourly IR satellite
imagery were measured using a hand held template of cloud top growth
distance intervals. The half-hourly IR satellite cloud-top
temperatures and cloud-top growth were applied to an empirically
derived decision tree initially developed by Scofield and Oliver and
later improved by Scofield. The improved techniques by Scofield
will be discussed.
This presentation will show unique original
maps, messages, shift logs, images and techniques used in estimating
rainfall from GOES satellite imagery prior to automation by the
Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS.
A GOES-Eye View of Rod
Scofield’s Legacy. Robert J. Kuligowski,
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Camp Springs, MD.
On 25 February 2006, Rod Scofield passed
away
from complications related to cancer. He left behind a
substantial legacy in the area of using satellite data to estimate and
predict rainfall for flash flood applications, including the
development of an automated technique that is now used by operational
forecasters in many parts of the world. He also had a tremendous
personal impact on the many forecasters, scientists, teachers, and
secondary school students who received training and encouragement from
him. This talk will review Rod s substantial contributions in
both research and outreach and will touch upon current developments
that are building upon his legacy.
Statewide Monitoring of the
Mesoscale Environment: A Technical Update
on the Oklahoma Mesonet. Ken Crawford and Renee A. McPherson, Oklahoma
Climatological Survey, Norman, OK,
Established as a multi-purpose network,
the
Oklahoma Mesonet operates more than 110 surface observing stations that
send data every 5 minutes to an operations center for data quality
assurance, product generation, and dissemination. Quality-assured data
are available within 5 minutes of the observation time. Since 1994, the
Oklahoma Mesonet has collected 3.5 billion weather and soil
observations and produced millions of decision-making products for its
customers. The presentation will highlight the technical advances the
Oklahoma Mesonet has achieved since its inception
Cloud Lightning From the National
Lightning Detection Network (NLDN).
Ronald L. Holle, Nicholas Demetriades, and Martin Murphy, Vaisala,
Inc., Tucson, AZ
The Vaisala National Lightning Detection
Network (NLDN) has been providing cloud-to-ground (CG) flash and stroke
data over the continental United States for more than a decade.
This CG flash and stroke operational datastream has recently been
enhanced to provide a portion of the cloud flashes that do not strike
ground.
Cloud lightning flashes can be detected most
efficiently using VHF line-of-sight lightning detection systems that
can cover a metropolitan area or a portion of a US state. These
networks detect over 90% of all cloud and CG lightning flashes.
The total horizontal extent of flashes can be mapped in detail with VHF
systems, and some of the vertical channel is also described. But
such VHF systems are limited in areal coverage by the requirement that
the source be within line of sight of several sensors.
By contrast, low frequency (LF) systems such
as the NLDN can cover an entire continent. However, LF systems detect
almost exclusively the vertical channel associated with a cloud flash.
Moreover, cloud flash signals are typically much weaker in intensity
than CGs in the LF band in which the NLDN sensors operate. While the
distance between NLDN sensors was determined primarily by the
requirement to detect CG flashes and strokes, a small percentage of the
cloud flashes can also be detected and these data are now available.
Simulations and ground truth data show that 10% to 20% of all cloud
flashes are being detected over the NLDN domain at a typical location
accuracy of 1 km
The vertical channel segments of cloud flashes
are typically located near the initiation point of the flash.
Most NLDN cloud flash locations are near the convective cores of
thunderstorms, in the vicinity of the highest density of CG
flashes. Since LF cloud flashes often occur somewhat before the
first CG flash or stroke in a storm, LF cloud flashes add temporal and
spatial definition to thunderstorms seen with CG flashes; examples will
be shown. There are estimated to be around three times as many cloud
flashes as CG flashes; this ratio varies by region of the US. Given the
greater frequency of cloud flashes, but poorer detection efficiency of
the network for cloud flashes, we can show that the ratio of detected
cloud flashes to detected CG flashes is consistent with our estimates
of cloud flash detection efficiency.
Poster Session I
P1.1 Assessment of Kean University Configured Real Time WRF. Shing Yoh,
Kean University, and Braden Ward, Kean University.
Since late summer of 2005, Kean University
Department of Geology & Meteorology has successfully configured and
has been running the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in
real time. The model grid resolution is about 15 km. The
model domain covers northeastern United States and is centered over New
Jersey. The WRF model is run once a day starting 00 UTC for 36
hour forecast and hourly output are generated for analysis.
Without using any advance or workstation class computer, a personal
computer from the student computer laboratory takes about 6 hours to
complete the 36 hour forecast. Hence the 00 UTC run will be
available in the morning for faculty, students and other professionals
to use. Results from this real time WRF forecast is shared
publicly through the meteorology department s website
(http://hurri.kean.edu).
The WRF surface forecasts were compared with
surface observations at conventional SAO locations.
Statistics such as mean bias and mean absolute error has been generated
since August 2005. It was found that the WRF interpolated surface
forecasts compared well with NCEP MOS. More evaluations will be
done and applications are also being developed to use this locally
configured WRF model to enhance local real time analyses and short term
forecast.
In terms of undergraduate education,
modeling work and the use of high resolution weather forecasting model
have been gradually incorporated into several of the class offerings
(e.g., Synoptic, Thermodynamics, Physical Meteorology; Methods in
Geoscience and Introduction to Meteorology) and the faculty has
involved students in the process through independent research. These
will help form the basis of an operational environment at Kean
University meteorology program.
P1.2 Sounding The "Muck Fire" Alarm -- Could It Return To Northeast
Ohio? Dale A. Dockus, FedEx Corp.
The spring of 2006 has witnessed the return of
the weather phenomena known as "muck fog." During exceptionally
dry periods, highly compacted vegetation called muck is
susceptible to fire and, once ignited, can smolder for
extended periods of time above or below ground. Under ideal
weather conditions for fog (including the existence of a low-level
temperature inversion), a muck fire can locally reduce surface
visibility to virtually zero. Early in the month of May
2006 in Brevard County, Florida, such conditions were blamed for
numerous multiple-car collisions along its interstate highways --
resulting in serious injuries and even fatalities. These dire
consequences are strikingly similar to a previously envisioned scenario
on the west side of Akron, Ohio, where several freeways
have been built since the area's last recorded muck fog episode in the
mid-1960's (enhanced at that time by significant air pollution
generated from since-departed local industrial sources). At a
weather workshop held in Cleveland in 2001, the author presented the
historical background of once-common muck fog in the lowlands referred
to as the Copley Swamp, including personal accounts in youth. A
major point of emphasis was that Akron had experienced a continuous
improvement in air quality over those 35 years, leading the
author to believe the probability of a repeat event to be quite
low. However, the recent Florida incident offers proof that
muck fires can produce dangerously low visibilities even in "clean air"
locations. Therefore, the scenario for "the perfect muck fog" for
northeast Ohio shall be readdressed.
P1.3 Atmospheric Blocking Patterns and Effects on Air Quality in the
Great Lakes Region. Frank Dempsey, Pickering, ON, Canada.
The effects of patterns of persistent positive height anomalies causing
blocked flow in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, mostly known
as Rex and Omega blocks, are well known for resulting regional patterns
of temperatures and precipitation anomalies, and the resulting impacts
on a wide range of weather effects. The sensible weather and resulting
air quality at the surface may range from hot and in the unhealthy
category, to cool, cloudy, rainy and in the good category, depending on
location with respect to the block structure in the atmosphere, and may
persist for days. In this poster presentation, an overview of blocking
patterns and recognition of their synoptic characteristics is followed
by an example of a block along with the air quality that resulted in
the Great Lakes area. A survey of some significant air quality episodes
in the Great Lakes area associated with atmospheric blocking patterns
during the past several years is shown to illustrate this particular
result of the blocking patterns.
P1.4 Convective Initiation in New Jersey. Dr. Paul J. Croft, Kean
University, and Steven L. Koenigstein, Justin Lewis, Ryan Matthews,
Mike Szczepanski and Melissa C. Rod, all students at Kean
University, Union, NJ
Summer thunderstorm activity is often
discontinuous in space (e.g., linear, isolated, clustered, scattered,
widespread), sporadic in time (diurnal versus any time of day), and
difficult to predict precisely in many areas of the United States
(e.g., a 30% chance forecast). This thunderstorm activity
in New Jersey is important to a variety of interests due to its
panorama of effects which may include: cloud cover, lightning, heavy
rainfall, flash flooding, hail, gusty winds, and on occasion pulse
severity (i.e., causing property damage or be life threatening).
Therefore, in order to better cope with and be prepared for these
impacts, convective initiation in New Jersey was examined during the
summer as a function of sea breeze and other local circulations and
factors as compared with synoptic and physiographic forcing. The goal
was to improve recognition of the features and forcing relevant to the
operational prediction of convection so that forecast improvements may
be made through more effective use of satellite and radar imagery,
local data sources and surface and upper-air observations. These
provide a predictive methodology to diagnose convective activity in
terms of timing, location, duration, and coverage. The methodology
includes information pertinent to thermodynamic and dynamic features,
spatial and temporal analyses and trends, and real-time mesoscale
modeling output information (as run by the Department). The data
collected and analyzed provide a unique sampling of the
statistical family of convective activity that occurs in
New Jersey and is, therefore, of value for application to any
summer season.
P1.5 Mesoscale Features in New Jersey: Initial Investigations. Dr. Paul
J. Croft, Kean University, Melissa C. Rod, Kean University, Belkys V.
Melendez, Kean University, and Ryan Matthews, Kean University.
The occurrence of mesoscale weather variations
is of interest across New Jersey and in the immediate vicinity given
the high population density as well as the diversity of land use,
physiographic features, and the wide range of impacts from both
hazardous weather and even routine conditions (e.g., local
circulations). In an initial attempt to ascertain the characteristics
and behaviors of these, efforts are underway at Kean University to
involve students in local studies and targeted investigations of
specific features. During the spring of 2006, students performed a
preliminary investigation of characteristics and behaviors of the
rain-snow line and sea breeze. The intent was to examine the types of
data that would assist spatially and temporally in specifying the
resultant sensible weather conditions across the state and to determine
how these vary with time as a function of local variations (e.g.,
physiography) and the prevailing synoptic scale flow.
Students accessed data in real-time, as well
as from archived sets as available, to portray surface conditions and
their variations with time and from case to case. Data were collected
and included many variables such as temperature, dewpoint, wind
direction and speed as well as remote sensing information such as
satellite and radar imagery. Specific locations within the state of New
Jersey were also selected so as to consider direct and regional
impacts. Composite analyses were prepared in an effort to assess the
relative importance of a given parameter such as wind direction and
temperature in identifying features of the rain-snow line or sea breeze
and their associated characteristics (e.g., orientation of boundaries,
length and width) and behaviors (e.g., intensity, progression). These
were then considered with regard to the prevailing synoptic flow and
physiographic features in the region. Initial results are expected to
provide information relevant to the identification of the family of
local circulations and their modes of behavior that will be useful in
operational applications.
P1.6 The Mississippi Mesonet: Growth and Applications. Loren White,
Jackson State University, Elizabeth Matlack, Jackson State University,
Quincy Jones, Jackson State University, and Gary Galloway, Newton
County Emergency Management Agency.
The initial prototype phase of the Mississippi
Mesonet was completed in 2006. We will discuss the current status of
the network, challenges that have been encountered, and applications of
the data by various stakeholders. Some applications of note have
included use by National Weather Service forecasters, inclusion in
MADIS, emergency management, K-12 outreach activities, and support for
hydrological studies. Meteorological researchers at Jackson State
University, the University of South Alabama, and Mississippi State
University are using the data to study nocturnal warming events,
land-surface interactions, hurricane landfall, and atmospheric
dispersion. The growth of the network to date will be evaluated with
respect to future plans and funding needs.
P1.7 A Comparison of Wind Speed Data from Mechanical and Ultrasonic
Anemometers. David A. Short, ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL,
Leonard Wells, 30th Weather Squadron, Vandenberg AFB, CA, Francis
Merceret, NASA/KSC/Weather Office, FL and WIlliam P. Roeder, 45th
Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL.
This study compared the performance of
mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at the Eastern Range (ER; Kennedy
Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on Florida s Atlantic
coast) and the Western Range (WR; Vandenberg Air Force Base on
California s Pacific coast). Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and
Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind
sensors at the ER and WR for weather warnings, watches, advisories,
special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts,
user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic
dispersion support. The current ER and WR weather tower wind
instruments are being changed from the current propeller-and-vane (ER)
and cup-and-vane (WR) sensors to ultrasonic sensors through the Range
Standardization and Automation (RSA) program.
The differences between mechanical and
ultrasonic techniques have been found to cause differences in the
statistics of peak wind speed in previous studies. The 45th Weather
Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the
Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between RSA and current
sensors to determine if there are significant differences.
Approximately 3 weeks of Legacy and RSA wind
data from each range were used in the study, archived during May and
June 2005. The ER data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the WR
data was confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data
from numerous levels on 5 different towers on each range totaled more
than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality
control). The 10 towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging
from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The RSA sensors were
collocated at the same vertical levels as the present sensors and
typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total
of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with present sensors were
compared. The 1-minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second
peak wind speed/direction were compared. The overall results
follow:
Overall Average Wind Speed:
Present 8.56 kt, RSA 8.87 kt,
RSA
- Present = + 0.29 kt,
standard deviation = 1.17 kt
Overall Peak Wind
Speed:
Present 10.72 kts, RSA 11.78 kt,
RSA - Present = + 1.06 kt,
standard deviation = 1.59 kt
The AMU also examined each Present/RSA pairing
for consistency in wind speed and wind direction. The most consistent
sensors were used to define a composite average-Present/RSA
comparison. Comparisons of the consistent composite were slightly
different than the overall comparison cited above.
Composite Average Speed:
Present 8.80 kt, RSA 9.14 kt,
RSA - Present =
+ 0.34 kt,
standard
deviation = 0.94 kt
Composite Peak Speed:
Present 10.95 kt, RSA 11.93
kt,
RSA - Present = + 0.98 kt,
standard
deviation = 1.38 kt
From a technical point of view the small
differences in average wind speeds reported by the Present and RSA
sensors are statistically significant, due to the small standard
deviations (0.94 kt) and the large sample size. In addition, the
average difference in the average wind speed was less than the expected
error from the combined precision of the sensors (0.50 kt). From a
practical point of view the differences in peak wind speeds are more
important, indicating that the change to ultrasonic sensors can be
expected to result in an increase in reported peak wind speeds. An
increase in peak wind speeds would result in a decrease of launch
availability, depending on the LCC threshold wind speed. For example,
the probability of peak wind speeds at 20 kts or less using the ER
Present data was 95.2%. For the same 20 kt threshold the ER RSA data
showed a probability of 92.3%, a potential loss of launch availability
of up to 2.9%. Full details are available under final reports at
http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/home.html.
P1.8 GOES-R Instrument CONOPS Considerations. Thomas Renkevens,
NOAA/NESDIS, Tim Walsh, NOAA/NESDIS.
The enhanced flexibility and performance of
the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R
instrument payloads will present a number of operational opportunities
relative to the current observational system. With an expected
launch readiness date in the 2012 timeframe, GOES-R will have two
primary earth-pointing instruments, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI)
and the Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES), which will have
significantly improved spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution over
the GOES-I/M and GOES-NOP series Imager and Sounder.
Based on anticipated performance and
operational flexibility improvements, the scan scenarios of the ABI and
HES will be carefully considered and optimized for appropriate
inclusion in the system Concept of Operations (CONOPS). The two
primary objectives of this poster are to inform the extended GOES user
community of the advanced operational flexibility of the GOES-R
instruments and to stimulate discussion as to what types of operational
scenarios and ground system improvements may be possible in the 2012
time frame. Improvements for consideration may include
enhanced ground and on-board tasking techniques (including possible
inter- and intra-platform tasking) and improved collaboration with the
customer community.
P1.9 Recent Improvements to the AMSU Hydrological Product Suite. Ralph
R.Ferraro, NOAA/NESDIS.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)/National Environmental Satellite, Data and
Information Service (NESDIS) generates a suite of operational
hydrological cycle products from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
(AMSU). These products include precipitation rate, total
precipitable water (TPW), cloud liquid and ice water paths, land
surface temperature, snow cover extent and water equivalent, and
sea-ice concentration. These products, generated from NOAA s
polar orbiting satellites, are used in a host of applications including
short-term weather forecasting and warning, numerical weather
prediction model data assimilation and climate assessments.
Several upgrades to the AMSU product suite have been recently
developed, including better screening of the TPW product under heavy
rain conditions, better coastline precipitation retrievals and a
preliminary snowfall rate algorithm. Additionally, this product
suite will be generated for the METOP-1 satellite (July 2006
launch). It is the purpose of this poster presentation to
illustrate the recent product improvements through a variety of
application examples, and to discuss the future products and missions
anticipated over the next decade.
P1.10 Remote Sensing Applications and Technologies: The Africa
Challenges.
Kenneth Rumi Ayadiani, Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Lagos, Nigeria
The overall objective of this paper is
to assess the imperativeness of the use of Remote Sensing
Application and Technologies in natural disaster mitigation in Africa
with Nigeria as a case study. The Meteorological and hydrological
hazards which form part of a group of such increasing devastating
phenomena and their major data source which are not only point specific
but sparse were reviewed. Some guidelines for action as regard the
ultimate need of data with wide aerial coverage of the globe through
Remote Sensing coupled with the pursuit of enhanced capacity building
and technology transfer which will enable early detection and warning
to curb some of there disasters and their perilous socio-economic
implications are considered prime objectives.
P1.11 Changes in precipitation water vapor sensed by ground based GPS
in Three Gorges Region. Rong Wan, Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain of
China Meteorological Administration, Ruilin Du, Institute of Seismology
of China Earthquake Administration, Guoguang Zheng, China
Meteorological Administration, and, Wei Wang, Institute of Seismology
of China Earthquake Administration.
Scientists studying the environmental
issues associated with the Three Gorges hydropower project believed
that there was the potential for some negative effects on environment,
including modifications to the local and surrounding areas climate over
time. Since the land was covered by water during the initial filling
stage, the dynamical condition and water vapour transportation could be
changed in the local area. Three Gorges reservoir was filled to 135
meters above sea level on June 2003. According to the current plan, the
Three Gorges reservoir will be filled to 156 meters in 2006 and raised
to its final level of 175 meters in 2009. The local water vapour
change, using the Integrated Precipitation Water Vapour (PWV) sensed by
GPS, during the first impoundment will be described in this
paper.
The study is based on time series of PWV
sensed by GPS sites at interval of 2 hour from 2000 to 2005 using
China’s seismic monitoring networks and the Three Gorges crust
deformation monitoring network. In the article, we will compare PWV
sensed by GPS with upper air soundings, and adjust the local parameters
by using surface observational data history. It was found that GPS PWV
value is in good agreement with the range of rain gauge values observed
in spring rainy season. The PWV annual and seasonal change before and
after the initial impoundment of Three Gorges reservoir were analyzed
respectively. The results showed obvious changes in WVP within the
Three Gorges region during spring and winter seasons between before and
after the first impoundment.
P1.12 Building a Florida Centric Road Weather Information System.
Patrick T. Welsh, University of North Florida, and J. David Lambert,
University of North Florida
Over the past four years, the University of
North Florida and its partners have built the first phases of the
Florida DOT Road Weather Information System. Nearly 500
miles of Florida Interstate are now covered by a real-time data system
at about twenty mile intervals. The network design and
implementation were done by graduate students in electrical engineering
and computer information systems.
The data model is one that is shared at
the National level as raw data, but is available to the private sector
for value-added products, as was done in the iFlorida Project with
Meteorlogix.
This talk will briefly describe the progress
to date and the future of the Florida RWIS, and a vision that the RWIS
and the upcoming FHWA Clarus System are much more than data to directed
to traffic managers.
P1.13 The Hazard Mapping System (HMS) – A Multiplatform Remote Sensing
Approach to Fire and Smoke Detection for Air Quality. Jamie Kibler,
NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD, John Simko, NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD, Shobha
Kondragunta, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Roland Draxler, NOAA/OAR/ARL, and
Po Li, QSS.
The HMS is a multiplatform remote sensing
approach to detecting smoke and fires over the US (including Alaska and
Hawaii), Canada, Mexico and Central America. This system is an
integral part of the Satellite Services Division s near realtime
hazards detection and mitigation efforts. The system utilizes
NOAA s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), Polar
Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), and the Moderate
Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA s Terra
and Aqua spacecraft. Automated fire detection algorithms are employed
for each of the satellites, but additional fire points not detected by
the algorithms may be added by the satellite analyst. Smoke is
annotated by the satellite analyst with points for significant smoke
producing fires provided as input to the Air Resources Lab (ARL) Hybrid
Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) that
is run daily to provide guidance on smoke trajectories and dispersion
over the US, Canada, and Mexico
(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/smoke/forecast.html). Improvements to the
HYSPLIT input from the HMS are an integral part of the NWS and EPA Air
Quality Forecast initiative. Additional data from the GOES
Aerosol and Smoke Product (GASP -
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/GASP/gasp.html) and the MODIS aerosol product
are being evaluated to determine characteristics of smoke
density.
Customers for the HMS include the National
Weather Service, US Forest Service, Environmental Protection Agency,
researchers, as well as numerous federal, state, and local land and air
quality managers. All of the analyzed fire and smoke information
is posted to a web page (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/) for viewing
in either a graphical static jpg format or via a Geographic Information
System (GIS) viewer. The GIS page allows for the display of
multiple layers with roam and zoom capabilities. An archive
site for the daily HMS analysis is available at
www.ngdc.noaa.gov/website/firedetects/viewer.htm.
P1.14 GOES Satellite Data Distribution: Past, Present, and Future.
Thomas Renkevens, NOAA/NESDIS, John Paquette, NOAA/NESDIS.
The past decade has seen a tremendous change
in the distribution of operational satellite data to key users.
Systems such as GOES-TAP and the Satellite Field Distribution
Facilities (SFDF), Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch Advanced
Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System
(RAMSDIS), Satellite Weather Information System (SWIS) and Micro
Satellite Weather Information System (MICROSWIS) have been the mainstay
for satellite data distribution and display up through the late
90s. With the advent of NOAAPORT and AWIPS (Advanced Weather
Interactive Processing System), the flow of real time digital satellite
data and products to the National Weather Service increased
significantly. Additional satellite derived products continue to
be added to the NOAAPORT data stream.
The next generation GOES-R geostationary
satellite series first launch planned no earlier than late 2012 will
host a powerful multispectral imager and hyperspectral sensors,
directed at acquiring significantly more information on the atmosphere,
land, ocean, and coastal areas. The great amount of information
from the GOES-R series will offer a continuation of current products
and services, and allow for improved or new capabilities. The
Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Hyperspectral Environmental
Suite (HES) on GOES-R will enable much improved monitoring and research
compared to current capabilities. There will be at least a factor of
four increase in the number of products from the GOES-R system.
In the GOES-R era, raw sensor data rates are
expected to reach approximately 132 Mbps, compared to 2.6 Mbps from
each of today's GOES. NOAA is investigating alternatives, including the
use of X-Band spectrum, for the raw sensor downlink to Wallops Island
to accommodate the downlink of these large data volumes to the ground.
The GOES re-broadcast to its U.S. and foreign users will continue in
the L-band RF spectrum, but will be more efficiently used and will have
an expanded bandwidth. Even so, the GOES-R series satellite
communications capability in the L-band will be restricted, from the
available bandwidth and technology, up to 24 Mbps. The two types of
data that are currently being considered for GOES-R data distribution
are the availability of a full set of this data (GFUL) and a GOES-R
Rebroadcast (GRB) of a yet to be determined subset of this data.
GFUL contains the full ABI, HES, and other instruments Level 1b data
sets, providing a data rate of more than 100 Mbps.
With the rapid changes in communications, many
options exist for the re-distribution of the calibrated/navigated data
and products in the GOES-R era (GOES-R satellite, commercial satellite,
dedicated landlines, hybrid broadcasts consisting of both satellite and
landlines). There are many design options possible that are
currently being studied by the three GOES-R Program Definition and Risk
Reduction (PDRR) contractors. Fundamental to this is the
continued use of satellite broadcasting. Many aspects of the
distribution are being investigated and have not yet been determined,
for example, how much and what is the nature of the data that needs to
be rebroadcast via the GOES-R satellite. The appropriate data
format(s) for GOES sensor science data in the GOES-R era are also being
investigated. The amount of radiance data versus products has not
been determined regarding the GRB.
At this time, the infrastructure impact on
user sites for the GOES-R series data to be acquired and processed has
not been determined. Many current key data distribution systems
such as NOAAPORT, McIDAS, and IDD have acknowledged the increased data
rates and have begun discussions or planning for these large
increases. The archive and access functionality is currently
performed by the Comprehensive Large Array and Stewardship System
(CLASS). This system exists and contains data from GOES and other
observing systems, including POES
and in the future NPOESS and GOES-R.
P1.15 UPWARDS at Kean! Year II: AGENTS of Change. Paul J.
Croft, Kean University.
A second year expansion of the program,
Undergraduates Providing Weather Activities for Research and
Development of Skills at Kean University (UPWARDS at Kean!) , has
included additional students at Kean University in order to serve a
wide diversity of fellow students, the general public, and educational
communities during the summer and throughout the academic year. Thus
the UPWARDS at Kean! program has begun a phase of providing
AGENTS (Atmospheric and Geoscience Education Nexus
Trailblazing Students) of change in educating others in the atmospheric
and related sciences.
The Kean University undergraduate Meteorology
Program, within the Department of Geology and Meteorology, continues to
provide a variety of outreach and professional development
opportunities. These include activities for K-12 audiences (e.g.,
Upward Bound), teacher training and professional development (MISE),
and undergraduate students (Epsilon Corps Institute). While
conceptualized and delivered by faculty and other professionals,
undergraduate students play key roles in the education process by their
assistance, participation, mentoring, and advising with these diverse
populations.
Programs have included the exploration of
scientific principles, measurement and interpretation of data, and the
use of these to assess and explain the characteristics and behaviors of
various environmental systems and the application of science and
technology. In addition, majors and faculty have direct interaction
with K-12 students (e.g., summer research projects at high schools),
fellow college students (e.g., as a scientific resource for the
Cougar’s Byte and on campus television studio), and
discipline experts (e.g., News12 New Jersey).
Future plans include the participation of
students and faculty in an operational (and outreach support)
geo-weather research center in association with the Center for Earth
Science Education within the Department of Geology and Meteorology.
Students may provide important outreach to the broader community both
on and off campus. This will be an important conduit for information
transfer and education and in the process give students opportunities
to develop their outreach skills while gaining practical experience.
P1.16 Turn Around Don't Drown (R) : A Campaign Built on Partnerships.
Hector Guerrero, NOAA/NWS San Angelo, TX, Leslie Chapman-Henderson,
Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, Roy Sedwick, Texas Flood Plain
Management, Larry Wenzel, NWS Headquarters Hydrologic Services
Division, and Kandis Boyd, NWS Southern Region Hydrologic Service
Branch.
NOAA’s National Weather Service and the
Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) Turn Around Don’t Drown ®
(TADD) flood safety campaign continues to gain momentum since it was
launched in 2003 as local and national television media partners
continue to broadcast this life-saving slogan before and during
significant flood events that have impacted our nation.
Meanwhile, strong partnerships with FLASH, Allstate
Foundation, Lower River Colorado Authority, National Safety
Council, Federal Highway Administration, Flood Plain Management
Associations, emergency management, communities and many more public
and private entities have fostered the creative development and
implementation of TADD projects and activities across "flash flood
alleys" within our country enabling Americans to make the right
decision to turn around.
The purpose of this talk is to show how
critically important these partnerships are to the expansion of the
TADD campaign since it was launched in 2003. Because of these
great partnerships, this life saving slogan has taken a life of its own
as more and more Americans make the right decision when they encounter
a flooded roadway. Finally, an analysis of the “Turn Around Don't
Drown” slogan will be discussed to show it's overall effectiveness.
P1.17 Timmy The Twister: Raising Daily Community Severe Weather
Awareness.
Dan Valle, Jim Belles and Rich Okulski, NOAA/NWS Memphis, TN and Amanda
Roberts, NOAA/NWS/LMRFC, Slidell, LA.
The National Weather Service's Memphis
Forecast Office created the character "Timmy the Twister" in 2005 to
raise daily severe weather awareness in small communities. "Timmy
the Twister" is based on the United States Forest Service's highly
successful "Smokey the Bear" campaign which raised the awareness of
fire danger in national forests.
The Memphis Weather Forecast Office has
created brochures, educational materials and most importantly large
signs to hang in public areas such as fire departments and town
halls. The signs show whether the daily severe weather hazard is
none, slight, moderate, or high. These hazard levels are based on
the Storm Prediction Center's Day One Categorical Convective Outlook.
There are two prototype "Timmy the Twister"
signs in Ponotoc, Mississippi and Caruthersville, Missouri. The
sign in Caruthersville was shown on cable television stations such as
MSNBC and The Weather Channel in the aftermath of the April 2nd F3
damage tornado. This strong tornado moved directly through
Caruthersville (population: 6,800) and damaged 500 homes. Only 65
people were injured and no one died! The city emergency manager
attributed this amazing statistic in part to "Timmy the Twister."
The Memphis Weather Forecast Office received
several calls and e-mail requests for "Timmy the Twister" signs in the
aftermath of the Caruthersville tornado. It is our vision to make
"Timmy the Twister" an integral part of the NWS's StormReady
program. Current and new StormReady communities would receive a
sign to enhance their severe weather awareness and preparedness.
P1.18 Tornado Safety Recommendations for Persons in Mobile Homes or
Motor Vehicles. Thomas W. Schmidlin, Kent State University.
Federal government and Red Cross tornado
safety recommendations state that persons who are in mobile homes or
vehicles when a tornado warning is issued should seek shelter outdoors
in a ditch or depression, if a sturdy building is not available for
shelter. There is no research to support this
recommendation. In fact, several researchers have found results
contrary to the recommendation. Previous research on tornado
hazards is reviewed and is combined with our work in the field and in a
wind tunnel to suggest revisions in the tornado safety recommendations
for persons in mobile homes and vehicles.
P1.19 The NOAA Center for Atmospheric Sciences: Impacts to the
Meteorological Community. Loren White, Rezwanul Karim, R.S. Reddy, and
Duanjun Lu, Jackson State University, and Vernon Morris, Howard
University.
The NOAA Center for Atmospheric Sciences
(NCAS) has been funded since 2001 by the NOAA Educational Partnership
Program for Minority Serving Institutions (EPP/MSI) to significantly
impact the matriculation of minority students toward advanced degrees
in the atmospheric sciences and to pursue interdisciplinary atmospheric
research of relevance to the NOAA mission. Led by Howard University, a
consortium of university partners was developed which includes Jackson
State University, the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez, and the
University of Texas at El Paso. Major research efforts have focused on
application of the MM5 and WRF models for convective initiation and
tropical cyclones, health and climatic impacts of Saharan dust
transport, urban air chemistry, and air-sea interaction. Major
observational programs which have developed include the Mississippi
Mesonet, the Beltsville, MD intensive monitoring site, and several
research cruises emphasizing the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Weather Camps
and specialized training workshops have been developed to complement
the educational and research programs of the consortium. During the
initial funding period, NCAS has dramatically increased the pipeline
for minority students continuing on a Ph.D. in atmospheric science,
including giving them exposure to NOAA operations through various
internships and research collaboration. Although the NCAS institutions
interact with a large number of NOAA offices and personnel, the most
common NOAA partners have been NCEP-EMC, the Air Resources Lab (ARL),
and local weather forecast offices (WFOs).
P1.20 How Broadcast News Shapes Memories of Severe Weather: Hurricane
Katrina as a Defining Event. Josh Nathan, Englewood, CO.
Applying Maurice Halbwach’s theory of
collective memory to CNN and FOX broadcasts and replicating an
historical-based methodology (Winfield et al., 2001), this study
suggests President Bush, once admired for his
