Validation of a Convective Sounding Based Worksheet used at WFO Miami to Determine Microburst and Hail Potential during the Summer Time
Estupinan, Jeral ; Orengo, Alexis ; Gregoria, Dan ; Santos, Pablo

The Weather Forecast Office in Miami, Florida, fills out a convective worksheet daily from late spring to mid fall in order to help forecasters build a strategy for anticipating convective storms with the potential for producing severe weather in the form of microbursts or downbursts, large hail, and frequent lightning. A separate worksheet is filled out to assess the potential for waterspouts. No objective review or analysis of these convective worksheets has been performed in order to assess how well these tools do in helping identify days more favorable for severe weather versus less favorable days. This project will present an analysis of the convective worksheets for the summer of 2011. The following analysis will be presented: (a) What is the correlation between the calculated microburst potential and the observed cases of microbursts; (b) How does the calculated microburst potential compare with the satellite derived convective potential from the GOES-15 WINDEX product; (c) Similarly, the severe hail and lightning potential from the convective worksheet will be correlated with available reports; (d) We will also investigate how we are estimating the waterspout potential in the worksheet and how do they correlate with observed events. Additionally, different WFO products will be evaluated to see if we need to improve the way we are conveying to the public the potential risks. The end goal of the study is to fine tune the different elements in the convective worksheets so that we can improve the detection of these severe weather events while minimizing false alarms. The addition of other routine checks to the daily convective spreadsheet will be considered to ensure we are using the latest severe weather techniques in our daily estimate of risks.