Analysis of Radar Consecutive Northeast Flow Convective Events Over Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania

Justin Arnott
NOAA/National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office
Gaylord, Michigan

ABSTRACT

     Two convective events were examined that occurred over the county warning area of the National Weather Service Office in Binghamton, New York on consecutive days in June, 2007. These events were unique because they both occurred under deep northeasterly flow, a highly anomalous flow configuration for the northeastern United States, and a flow direction not typically associated with severe weather. The event on 12 June 2007 led to numerous severe hail and wind reports. The increasing organization of convection during the afternoon and early evening is examined and found to be strongly tied to interactions between existing convection and low-level boundaries. On the following day, under very similar synoptic conditions, the late morning convective environment appeared primed for a repeat episode of severe weather. By early afternoon, however, a substantial decrease in surface moisture and concurrently, surface-based convective instability, led to the development of only isolated, sub-severe convection over the Binghamton, New York County Warning Area. A comparison of the two events reveals that subtle differences in the low-level kinematic and thermodynamic fields, as well as differences in the larger-scale forcing for ascent, played a significant role in limiting the convective potential on this day.



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